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Increased Production to Drop Nigeria’s Petrol Deficit by 39%—Kpler

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Increase in production volume at refineries in Nigeria will reduce petrol deficit in the country by 39 per cent to 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 from 280,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler.

Kpler, a market insights firm focused on the energy and shipping markets, said in a report that increasing output at the Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen not just Nigeria but West Africa’s petroleum (gasoline) balances.

“Increasing refinery runs at Nigeria’s Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen West Africa’s gasoline balances,” the firm said.

It confirmed that the shift will pose challenges for European refiners, with European gasoline exports to Nigeria already dropping to a four-year low of 70,000 barrels per day in December.

Recall that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently said that the increased production of petroleum products by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the importation of refined products from Europe.

The 650,000 barrels per day Dangote oil refinery built by Nigerian billionaire, Mr Aliko Dangote, in Lagos, had affirmed to compete with European refiners when operating at full capacity.

Although, when it started operations last year, it struggled to secure sufficient crude locally — as production remains below target and tied to contracts with other players by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

Kpler said that following the commissioning of key units within the gasoline block-Reformer, isomerization, RFCC, and Alkylation-this output is reflected in the sharp reduction in residue and naphtha production.

“We estimate that Dangote’s RFCC (the most critical unit for high- volume gasoline production) is currently operating at 40-45% capacity, placing total Nigerian gasoline production at above 100 kbd,” Kpler added.

It wrote that, “Dangote’s fuel oil exports, for instance, fell from 60 kbd in 23 to just 6 kbd in Q4, while naphtha exports also dropped significantly q/q,” adding that, “Achieving higher yields and production volumes will depend on further romping up RFCC unit rates, a milestone antiopated by late 2025.”

Kpler pointed out increased production volumes at Dangote will reduce “Nigeria’s gasoline deficit from -280 kbd in 2024 to -170 kbd in 2025 (and-100 kbd in 2026).”

It explained that while Dangote’s petrol will primarily cater to domestic markets, the refinery is also poised to become a major suppler across Western, Central, and Southern Africa.

It added that Dangote Refinery shipped about 60,000 barrels per day in the last quarter of 2024 to Congo, Ghana, Angola, Cameroon, and others.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Tinubu Confirms Killing of Abu-Bilal Al-Manuki by Nigerian, US Forces

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

President Bola Tinubu on Saturday confirmed the killing of a senior ISIS leader, Mr Abu-Bilal Al-Manuki, in an overnight operation carried out by the United States and Nigeria.

President Donald Trump had earlier announced the elimination of the notorious terrorist via a post on his Truth Social.

Later, in a statement today, Mr Tinubu praised the action, describing it as “a significant example of effective collaboration in the fight against terrorism.”

“Our determined Nigerian Armed Forces, working closely with the Armed Forces of the United States, conducted a daring joint operation that dealt a heavy blow to the ranks of the Islamic State,” he said in the statement.

According to him, early assessments confirm the elimination of the wanted IS senior leader, Abu-Bilal Al-Manuki, also known as Abu-Mainok, along with several of his lieutenants, during a strike on his compound in the Lake Chad Basin.

He commended the partnership between Nigeria and America in waging war against terrorists, thanking his US counterpart “for his leadership and unwavering support in this effort.”

“I commend the personnel involved on both sides for their professionalism and courage, and I look forward to more decisive strikes against all terrorist enclaves across the nation,” the Nigerian leader added.

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Nigeria Steps up AI Surveillance, Anti-Drone Systems for National Security

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is set to strengthen its defence architecture by deploying artificial intelligence-powered surveillance systems and advanced anti-drone technology as part of efforts to modernise the country’s military capabilities, according to the Minister of Defence, Mr Christopher Musa.

He disclosed this during a high-level visit to Monaco, where he led a Nigerian delegation to conclude discussions on the multi-domain Hybrid Intelligence Shield (HIS) project.

According to Mr Musa, the initiative is designed to enhance border security, protect urban centres and improve the country’s response to emerging security threats.

The project is expected to introduce AI-driven surveillance systems capable of identifying threats rapidly through smart algorithms, while anti-drone technology will be deployed to intercept and neutralise unmanned aerial threats.

The government also plans to establish national and regional command-and-control centres to improve real-time coordination and response to security incidents across the country.

Mr Musa said the initiative would place strong emphasis on technology transfer and local capacity development through the establishment of a military Centre of Excellence in Nigeria.

He added that the federal government would leverage partnerships with international firms, including Marss UK Ltd, while simultaneously building indigenous capabilities to address insurgency, illegal mining, piracy and other security threats.

Nigeria has continued to battle multiple security challenges in recent years, including insurgency in the North-East, banditry and kidnappings in the North-West, farmer-herder clashes in the North-Central region, crude oil theft in the Niger Delta and piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.

Nigeria is stepping up its defence as the border region of Nigeria, Benin and Niger on the southern edge of the Sahel region is becoming a new stronghold for jihadists, as militants turn forests and pastoral networks in West Africa into bases for recruitment and international attacks.

Attacks in Nigeria have also risen, with data from the website of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a conflict-monitoring group, affirming that the number of suicide bombings in Nigeria by March already matched the annual average over the past six years.

The Nigerian military has also been dealt a blow to its military bases and senior figures targeted. In April, Brigadier-General Oseni Omoh Braimah was killed when Islamist fighters attacked a base in Borno State.

To also meet the defence goal, Nigeria is stepping up efforts to build domestic arms-manufacturing capacity.

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Nigeria, Morocco to Seal Atlantic Gas Pipeline Deal by Q4 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and Morocco are set to sign a major intergovernmental agreement later this year to push forward the long-delayed Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project, a multi-billion-dollar energy corridor expected to reshape gas trade across West Africa and Europe.

The agreement, expected to be signed in the fourth quarter of 2026 by President Bola Tinubu and King Mohammed VI of Morocco, follows the completion of preliminary technical studies for the ambitious project, according to officials from both countries.

The pipeline, also known as the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, is projected to stretch about 6,900 kilometres along offshore and onshore routes across West Africa, making it one of the largest gas infrastructure projects on the continent.

With an estimated cost of $25 billion, the pipeline is designed to transport up to 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually once completed.

Discussions on the project gained fresh momentum during a telephone conversation between Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, and her Moroccan counterpart, Mr Nasser Bourita.

The project would not only strengthen energy cooperation between the two countries but also improve regional economic integration and expand Africa’s access to European energy markets.

According to Morocco’s hydrocarbons and mining agency, ONHYM, part of the gas supply will support Morocco’s domestic energy demand, while large export volumes will be directed to Europe.

The project, first proposed about a decade ago, is seen as a strategic alternative gas supply route amid rising global energy security concerns and Europe’s search for more diversified energy sources.

Beyond the pipeline, Nigeria and Morocco are also exploring broader economic partnerships, particularly in fertiliser production and distribution to support food security across Africa.

Both countries also agreed on the need to revive the Nigeria-Morocco Business Council to strengthen trade and investment relations under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework.

Analysts noted that the project could significantly boost gas monetisation opportunities for Nigeria, expand regional infrastructure development, and deepen economic ties between West African nations and Europe if successfully executed.

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