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Nigeria’s Petrol Import Fight Puts Pump Prices, Supply Security Back in Focus

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Petrol Station Owners

The dispute between Dangote Refinery and some independent oil marketers over the import licences has become a test of pump-price stability and supply security, EBC Financial Group (EBC) has said.

Dangote has filed a fresh lawsuit challenging fuel import licences granted to marketers and Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, while marketers argue that imports remain needed to protect supply security and competition. The test for Nigeria is whether it can quickly cut petrol imports while maintaining stable fuel reserves, depot supply, trucking, pump prices, foreign exchange (FX) demand, and investor confidence.

Falling Imports Make Stock Cover the Key Market Test

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has changed Nigeria’s petrol supply balance by adding large-scale domestic refining capacity to a market that has relied heavily on imported refined fuel. The refinery has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, giving Nigeria its largest route for producing refined fuel locally rather than relying heavily on imported cargoes. That capacity can reduce shipping exposure, cut FX demand from refined-fuel imports, and keep more refining activity inside Nigeria.

The shift away from imported petrol is already visible in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) import volumes for January to April 2026, which fell from about 25 million litres per day in January 2026 to 3.7 million litres per day in April 2026 as local refining expanded, while PMS stock cover fell from 21.2 days in March to 17.7 days in April. Lower imports show progress toward local supply, but lower stock cover means the system has fewer days of stored petrol available if refinery output, depot loading or trucking slows.

According to Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) data, Dangote’s PMS production was placed at 53.6 million litres per day in April 2026, while domestic supply from the refinery reached 40.7 million litres per day, and imports fell to 3.7 million litres per day. The commercial issue is whether that output is reaching depots and filling stations fast enough to support daily demand, reduce regional shortages and limit extra trucking or storage costs.

Production is not the same as availability because petrol still must move through several physical and commercial steps before it reaches consumers. PMS must leave the refinery, enter depots, be loaded into trucks, reach filling stations and be sold to households and businesses. Any delay in refinery loading, depot release, truck allocation or station replenishment can raise waiting time, lift trucking charges, widen price gaps between cities and force marketers to tie up more working capital before sales are completed.

Import licences remain commercially important because imported cargoes can refill depots when local refinery supply or trucking delivery falls short. When domestic petrol is available and can move smoothly to filling stations, extra imports can add cost and weaken demand certainty for local refiners. When stock cover tightens, or regional delivery falls behind consumption, imports can rebuild reserves and shorten replenishment cycles. The policy issue is who measures a shortage, what data proves it and when import licences are activated.

David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s downstream fuel debate is moving from a question of refinery capacity to a question of market reliability. Local refining is a major structural gain, but the market still needs clear rules on when imports are allowed, how supply shortfalls are measured, and how fuel can move consistently from refinery gate to final consumer.”

Pump Prices Carry the Public Cost

The dispute is significant because petrol prices move through the wider economy, including transport fares, food distribution, generator costs, retail delivery and small-business margins. Local refining may reduce import dependence, but it does not automatically lower pump prices. Pump prices can still be shaped by crude costs, FX costs, prices charged as petrol leaves the refinery, depot margins, loading charges, trucking costs and competition between refiners, importers and marketers.

The price risk is sensitive because depot prices set the cost base for marketers before petrol reaches filling stations. Dangote’s ex-depot PMS price was recently reported at NGN 1,350 per litre, while the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest PMS price data put the average retail price at NGN 1,288.54. When wholesale or depot costs stay high, the pressure can move into pump prices, minibus fares, ride-hailing costs, food distribution, generator use, retail delivery and small-business operating costs.

Fuel also feeds into inflation through transport fares, food distribution, generator costs and retail operating expenses. Nigeria’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate rose to 15.69% in April 2026 from 15.38% in March 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report. If petrol supply becomes less predictable or depot prices rise, businesses face higher input costs, and households face higher daily transport and food costs.

Local refining can reduce one source of demand for US dollars because fewer imported petrol cargoes may be needed. The full FX benefit depends on how crude oil is sourced, priced and supplied. If crude costs remain linked to the US dollar, imported crude is still required, shipping costs rise, or refinery-gate prices follow international benchmarks, the currency benefit becomes more complex. The naira impact depends on crude supply, crude pricing, refinery output, domestic sales, exports and actual import reduction.

S&P Upgrade Raises the Stakes for Clear Rules

S&P Global Ratings (S&P) upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign credit rating from B- to B, citing a stronger macroeconomic profile, higher oil production and prices, exchange-rate liberalisation and increased domestic refining capacity. That makes the import-licence dispute more visible to investors: if local refining reduces import demand while keeping petrol supply reliable, it supports the reform case; if unclear import rules or weak stock cover raise pump-price risk, investors may price the fuel market as a source of policy and inflation risk.

“The risk for Nigeria is not simply whether petrol is imported or refined locally,” Precious added. “The bigger issue is whether the transition can keep pump prices, fuel reserves and investor confidence stable at the same time.”

Clear rules matter because each part of the fuel chain needs certainty. Refiners need predictable domestic demand. Marketers need transparent import rules and reliable depot access. Trucking operators need loading schedules that reduce idle time and improve fleet use. Households and businesses need a stable fuel supply to avoid unnecessary cost increases in transport, food, power generation and retail pricing.

Nigeria’s domestic refining expansion is a major shift, but the transition will be judged by outcomes rather than capacity alone. The real test is whether the country can reduce petrol imports while keeping stock cover adequate, pump prices manageable, distribution reliable and competition credible. If those conditions hold, local refining strengthens Nigeria’s wider economic reform case. If they weaken, the pressure moves from import terminals to refinery gates, depots, trucks and filling stations.

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WCO Renews Customs CG Adeniyi’s Tenure as Council Chair

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adewale adeniyi customs

By Adedapo Adesanya

The World Customs Organisation (WCO) has extended the tenure of Nigeria’s Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, as Chairperson of its Council for another year.

The decision was taken at the 147th and 148th Council Sessions in Brussels, Belgium, citing his leadership and contributions to global customs administration.

Comptroller Adeniyi returned to Abuja on June 29 to a reception by officers and management of the Nigeria Customs Service at its Maitama headquarters.

The management team also congratulated him on the six-month extension of his appointment by President Bola Tinubu.

Speaking on his return, the Comptroller-General said he had expected to hand over in Brussels, but was instead given a renewed mandate, which he dedicated to the Service.

The extension at both international and national levels is expected to support ongoing reforms, trade facilitation, and partnerships within the Nigeria Customs Service.

The six-month domestic extension is expected to provide continuity for ongoing reforms within the Customs Service while paving the way for a smooth leadership transition.

During the transition period, the Presidency said Mr Adeniyi, working with the Nigeria Customs Service Board, will ensure the promotion of eligible officers to the rank of Comptroller of Customs and the compulsory retirement of officers who have attained 60 years of age or have served 35 years.

Mr Adeniyi joined the Nigeria Customs Service after graduating from Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU) in the late 1980s and rose steadily through the ranks of the service.

Mr Adeniyi’s first tenure extension was due to expire on August 1, 2026, but President Tinubu approved the additional six months to enable him to complete key reforms within the Customs Service.

The presidency, via a statement, said the extension was granted “to enable him to consolidate the implementation of the National Single Window and ensure an orderly succession in the service.”

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Oyetola Urges West, Central Africa to Strengthen Port State Control

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Badagry Seaport

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, has called on maritime administrations across West and Central Africa to strengthen Port State Control (PSC) systems as a critical strategy for enhancing maritime safety, facilitating trade and unlocking the full potential of Africa’s Blue Economy.

Speaking earlier at the Abuja Memorandum of Understanding (Abuja MoU) Regional Workshop for Directors-General/Chief Executive Officers of Maritime Administrations and Heads of Port State Control in Lagos, the Minister said effective maritime governance has become indispensable to Africa’s economic transformation, particularly under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Mr Oyetola said the workshop aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which recognises the Marine and Blue Economy as a major driver of economic diversification, trade, employment and sustainable development.

“As Nigeria works to consolidate its position as Africa’s leading maritime hub, we recognise that world-class maritime governance, effective Port State Control, safe shipping practices and adherence to international standards are indispensable foundations for achieving that vision,” the Minister said.

He noted that strengthening Port State Control across the region would not only improve maritime safety but also support Africa’s broader economic aspirations by creating an efficient, secure and internationally compliant maritime transport system capable of facilitating seamless intra-African trade.

“The success of the African Continental Free Trade Area depends significantly on efficient, secure and internationally compliant maritime transport systems. As maritime administrations, we bear a collective responsibility to ensure that our ports, shipping operations and regulatory systems support the free flow of commerce, strengthen regional connectivity and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s economic integration and global competitiveness,” he stated.

Speaking on the workshop’s theme, A Future-Ready Port State Control Regime: Leadership, People, Governance and Performance for Safer Maritime Systems, Mr Oyetola described it as both timely and strategic, noting that the maritime industry is undergoing unprecedented transformation driven by technological innovation, environmental obligations, evolving regulations and changing geopolitical realities.

According to him, these developments require Port State Control regimes that are not only robust but also adaptive and future-ready.

The Minister described the workshop as the first major strategic intervention under the Abuja MoU Port State Control Strengthening Programme, designed to equip Directors-General and Chief Executive Officers of maritime administrations to champion institutional reforms, strengthen governance frameworks and improve maritime safety performance across the region.

Reaffirming Nigeria’s commitment to international maritime standards, Mr Oyetola said the country has consistently supported the vision of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), which regards Port State Control as one of the most effective mechanisms for eliminating substandard shipping, protecting the marine environment and safeguarding the welfare of seafarers.

On his part, the Secretary-General of the Abuja MoU, Mr Sunday Umoren, described collaboration among member states as essential to building a safer, more efficient and globally competitive maritime sector in West and Central Africa.

Also speaking, the Director-General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Mr Dayo Mobereola, stressed the need for greater investment in capacity building and institutional development, revealing that only 16 of the Abuja MoU’s 22 member states currently conduct Port State Control inspections consistently.

He disclosed that Nigeria conducted 917 Port State Control inspections in 2025, achieving an inspection rate of 23.5 per cent, significantly exceeding the Abuja MoU benchmark of 15 per cent.

Mr Mobereola said the country’s performance demonstrates its commitment to enforcing international maritime conventions and promoting safer shipping within the region.

The Lagos workshop is expected to produce practical recommendations for strengthening Port State Control implementation across the Abuja MoU region while laying the foundation for a more harmonised, efficient and globally respected maritime safety regime in West and Central Africa.

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Presidential Economic Advisory Council: Presidency Backs Gbajabiamila, Disowns Adeyemi

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Presidential Economic Advisory Council Adeyemi Adeniyi Matthew

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The presidency has thrown its weight behind Chief of Staff to President Bola Tinubu, Mr Femi Gbajabiamila, over the controversy surrounding the fictitious Presidential Economic Advisory Council, which Mr Adeyemi Adeniyi Matthew said he heads as the Director General.

Mr Adeyemi claimed he gave Mr Gbajabiamila about N400 million to pay a balance of N200 million to secure the council’s job. He further alleged that he was asked to part with 48 per cent of an allocation to his office.

While Mr Gbajabiamila dissociated himself from the council, it was found out that the organisation had a budgetary allocation under the presidency.

Reacting to this issue, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, in a statement on Wednesday, absolved Mr Gbajabiamila from the fraud.

Below is the full statement;

We are aware of the public interest in the matter of a man called  Adeyemi Adeniyi Matthew, who has been parading himself as the director-general of a fictitious Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council cum Presidential Economic Advisory Council.

The office of the Chief of Staff to the President first blew the whistle on the existence of the illegal agency, following complaints from officials of the Nigerian Investment Promotion Council that another government agency appeared to be functioning at cross-purposes with it.

The Chief of Staff, on October 17, in a letter, asked the DSS and the Police to probe the activities of ‘fraudsters and imposters’ forging appointment letters purportedly from his office.

“The attention of this office has been drawn to the activities of certain individuals and groups engaged in the forgery of official appointment letters purportedly issued from my office. The fake documents, bearing falsified signatures, reference/folio numbers, and seals, have been used to claim leadership appointments to non-existent entities, with particular reference to the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council.

“The aforementioned entity under the leadership of one Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew as Director-General is said to have an office at the Federal Secretariat Complex Phase 111, 2nd Floor. Also, they have been parading themselves as a legitimate government agency, hosting meetings with both foreigners and Nigerian citizens, and even going so far as to request a note verbale from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the United States of America to facilitate visas for some of their staff.

“The above development not only constitutes a serious criminal act but also undermines the integrity of the presidency and the credibility of official government communication.

 “I therefore urge you to initiate a thorough investigation to identify and apprehend those involved and also to uncover the network facilitating the forgery,” the Chief of Staff wrote in his petition to the security agencies.

The letter to the security agencies was accompanied by a copy of the forged appointment letter, a copy of the request for a note verbal to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and pictures of engagements obtained from the illegal agency’s website.

Around the time the Chief of Staff lodged the complaint with the security agencies, the existence of the fake agency had raised concerns within the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

In a letter on October 15, 2025, the Foreign Affairs Ministry wrote to the office of the National Security Adviser and the Chief of Staff to the President, requesting clarification on the status of Adeyemi’s agency. The letter, which Ambassador Anderson Madubuike signed, followed Adeyemi’s October 10 meeting with ambassadors at the Wells Carlton Hotel and Apartments in Asokoro, without recourse to the ministry.

“This act contravenes extant rules and regulations guiding diplomatic practices globally,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in its letter.

On October 20, the Office of the National Security Adviser wrote to the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, on the request of the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

On 29 October,  the OSGF wrote to the Chief of Staff requesting clarification. “This has become expedient owing to several requests from governmental and non-governmental bodies seeking to ascertain the status of the appointment under consideration”

Two days earlier, the Chief of Staff sent his own clear rebuttal to the Foreign Affairs Ministry, stating that he had never issued an appointment letter to Adeyemi as director general of the fake presidential foreign investment promotion council. The Chief of Staff could not have issued a letter of appointment to a non-existent agency. Moreover, the Chief of Staff does not make appointments or write letters, as these are the exclusive preserve of the Office of the Secretary of the Government of the Federation.

On November 5, 2025, the Chief of Staff responded to the OSGF, again flatly denying Adeniyi Adeyemi and his spurious agency. “Prince Adeniyi Matthew, director-general of the Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council, is unknown to any office, nor do we have any dealings with the said council.

“My attention was drawn to a letter of this purported application, which is fake, and my office has instructed the police and other relevant security agencies to carry out investigations on the person and the entity he claims to represent”, the chief of staff wrote.

The Police made the first move by responding to the chief of staff’s letter dated 17 October and began their investigation. On 27 October, Adeyemi was arrested in Abuja at the Secretariat office where he operated his elaborate scam.

The police searched the office and Adeyemi’s home in Suleja, recovering vital documents and exhibits. In Adeyemi’s statement to the police, he claimed that one Dolapo Babatunde Tanimola assisted him in procuring the fake appointment letter. Following his claim, the police went after the said Tanimola.  The Police found that Tanimola died in a fire incident at Kachi Hotel in Abuja on 22 October, five days before Adeyemi’s arrest. Tanimola’s body was seen by the police at the morgue, confirming the death.

The police were able to establish that the agency Adeyemi purportedly headed was fictitious, that he forged his appointment letter and the documents recovered in his office and home, that he falsely paraded himself as a government appointee, and that he falsely solicited a note verbal from the Foreign Affairs Ministry to enable him and his staff to obtain US visas. The police also found that Adeyemi operated 34 bank accounts, with nine opened in the names of his fictitious agencies, known as the FCT Investment Promotion Agency and the Public Private Partnership (FIPA-APP), and the FCT Investment Promotion Act.

The Police found that Adeyemi, using the fake documents he created, fraudulently opened a CBN account by misleading the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation. According to the police, no government money has been transferred into the account.

“The act of the suspect constitutes criminal forgery, impersonation and obtaining by false pretence, thereby bringing the office of the Chief of Staff to the President and the Presidency to disrepute before the public and international community”, the police wrote in the report of the investigation conducted by the assistant commissioner, Kabir Mogaji.

Based on their investigations, the police filed an eight-count charge at the Federal High Court in Abuja against Adeyemi and two of his accomplices on November 27, 2025. He is due in court on July 27.

Adeyemi was on police bail when he recently claimed that the Chief of Staff had appointed him as DG of the fictitious agency. This claim contradicted his statement to the police in November last year.  His new claim prompted the Chief of Staff, on June 8, to issue a disclaimer consistent with earlier advisories that the man, called Adeyemi,  is an impostor.

The case of Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew is a clear case of a con artist who appears to have built a web of false claims to deceive unsuspecting government officials and the public into playing by his scam book. He has a history of fraudulent misrepresentation. In November 2016, he paraded himself as an ambassador and President-General of the World Youth Organisation (WYO), an affiliate of the United Nations (UN). He claimed to have been elected in New Delhi, India. The local media celebrated him until the UN denied the existence of such a body.

Politicians and members of the public who are weaponising Adeyemi’s claim against the Chief of Staff should refrain from swallowing his narrative hook, line and sinker. They are advised to await the trial of Adeyemi and his accomplices, as well as the court’s judgement, as comments made today are sub judice.

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