General
Nigeria’s Petrol Import Fight Puts Pump Prices, Supply Security Back in Focus
The dispute between Dangote Refinery and some independent oil marketers over the import licences has become a test of pump-price stability and supply security, EBC Financial Group (EBC) has said.
Dangote has filed a fresh lawsuit challenging fuel import licences granted to marketers and Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, while marketers argue that imports remain needed to protect supply security and competition. The test for Nigeria is whether it can quickly cut petrol imports while maintaining stable fuel reserves, depot supply, trucking, pump prices, foreign exchange (FX) demand, and investor confidence.
Falling Imports Make Stock Cover the Key Market Test
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has changed Nigeria’s petrol supply balance by adding large-scale domestic refining capacity to a market that has relied heavily on imported refined fuel. The refinery has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, giving Nigeria its largest route for producing refined fuel locally rather than relying heavily on imported cargoes. That capacity can reduce shipping exposure, cut FX demand from refined-fuel imports, and keep more refining activity inside Nigeria.
The shift away from imported petrol is already visible in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) import volumes for January to April 2026, which fell from about 25 million litres per day in January 2026 to 3.7 million litres per day in April 2026 as local refining expanded, while PMS stock cover fell from 21.2 days in March to 17.7 days in April. Lower imports show progress toward local supply, but lower stock cover means the system has fewer days of stored petrol available if refinery output, depot loading or trucking slows.
According to Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) data, Dangote’s PMS production was placed at 53.6 million litres per day in April 2026, while domestic supply from the refinery reached 40.7 million litres per day, and imports fell to 3.7 million litres per day. The commercial issue is whether that output is reaching depots and filling stations fast enough to support daily demand, reduce regional shortages and limit extra trucking or storage costs.
Production is not the same as availability because petrol still must move through several physical and commercial steps before it reaches consumers. PMS must leave the refinery, enter depots, be loaded into trucks, reach filling stations and be sold to households and businesses. Any delay in refinery loading, depot release, truck allocation or station replenishment can raise waiting time, lift trucking charges, widen price gaps between cities and force marketers to tie up more working capital before sales are completed.
Import licences remain commercially important because imported cargoes can refill depots when local refinery supply or trucking delivery falls short. When domestic petrol is available and can move smoothly to filling stations, extra imports can add cost and weaken demand certainty for local refiners. When stock cover tightens, or regional delivery falls behind consumption, imports can rebuild reserves and shorten replenishment cycles. The policy issue is who measures a shortage, what data proves it and when import licences are activated.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s downstream fuel debate is moving from a question of refinery capacity to a question of market reliability. Local refining is a major structural gain, but the market still needs clear rules on when imports are allowed, how supply shortfalls are measured, and how fuel can move consistently from refinery gate to final consumer.”
Pump Prices Carry the Public Cost
The dispute is significant because petrol prices move through the wider economy, including transport fares, food distribution, generator costs, retail delivery and small-business margins. Local refining may reduce import dependence, but it does not automatically lower pump prices. Pump prices can still be shaped by crude costs, FX costs, prices charged as petrol leaves the refinery, depot margins, loading charges, trucking costs and competition between refiners, importers and marketers.
The price risk is sensitive because depot prices set the cost base for marketers before petrol reaches filling stations. Dangote’s ex-depot PMS price was recently reported at NGN 1,350 per litre, while the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest PMS price data put the average retail price at NGN 1,288.54. When wholesale or depot costs stay high, the pressure can move into pump prices, minibus fares, ride-hailing costs, food distribution, generator use, retail delivery and small-business operating costs.
Fuel also feeds into inflation through transport fares, food distribution, generator costs and retail operating expenses. Nigeria’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate rose to 15.69% in April 2026 from 15.38% in March 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report. If petrol supply becomes less predictable or depot prices rise, businesses face higher input costs, and households face higher daily transport and food costs.
Local refining can reduce one source of demand for US dollars because fewer imported petrol cargoes may be needed. The full FX benefit depends on how crude oil is sourced, priced and supplied. If crude costs remain linked to the US dollar, imported crude is still required, shipping costs rise, or refinery-gate prices follow international benchmarks, the currency benefit becomes more complex. The naira impact depends on crude supply, crude pricing, refinery output, domestic sales, exports and actual import reduction.
S&P Upgrade Raises the Stakes for Clear Rules
S&P Global Ratings (S&P) upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign credit rating from B- to B, citing a stronger macroeconomic profile, higher oil production and prices, exchange-rate liberalisation and increased domestic refining capacity. That makes the import-licence dispute more visible to investors: if local refining reduces import demand while keeping petrol supply reliable, it supports the reform case; if unclear import rules or weak stock cover raise pump-price risk, investors may price the fuel market as a source of policy and inflation risk.
“The risk for Nigeria is not simply whether petrol is imported or refined locally,” Precious added. “The bigger issue is whether the transition can keep pump prices, fuel reserves and investor confidence stable at the same time.”
Clear rules matter because each part of the fuel chain needs certainty. Refiners need predictable domestic demand. Marketers need transparent import rules and reliable depot access. Trucking operators need loading schedules that reduce idle time and improve fleet use. Households and businesses need a stable fuel supply to avoid unnecessary cost increases in transport, food, power generation and retail pricing.
Nigeria’s domestic refining expansion is a major shift, but the transition will be judged by outcomes rather than capacity alone. The real test is whether the country can reduce petrol imports while keeping stock cover adequate, pump prices manageable, distribution reliable and competition credible. If those conditions hold, local refining strengthens Nigeria’s wider economic reform case. If they weaken, the pressure moves from import terminals to refinery gates, depots, trucks and filling stations.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Presidential Working Group on the National Policing Bill has extended the deadline for the submission of memoranda and position papers on the proposed legislation to Friday, August 21, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. West Africa Time.
In a statement signed by the Chief of Staff to the President and Chairman of the Presidential Working Group, Mr Femi Gbajabiamila, the group said the extension was intended to ensure that interested individuals, institutions and organisations have adequate opportunity to make substantive contributions to the proposed legislation.
“The Presidential Working Group is committed to ensuring that the process of developing the National Policing Bill benefits from broad consultation and the informed perspectives of Nigerians and relevant stakeholders,” the statement read.
The proposed legislation is intended to provide the operational, administrative, institutional and funding framework necessary for an effective policing architecture that responds to Nigeria’s evolving security needs, while providing appropriate safeguards for accountability, professionalism and the protection of citizens’ rights.
“Given the significance of the proposed reform to the future of policing and internal security in Nigeria, the Working Group considers it important that stakeholders are afforded more opportunity to make substantive and technically sound contributions to the process,” the statement said.
The former lawmaker said legal practitioners, civil society organisations, security sector professionals, state governments, professional bodies, academics, experts and interested members of the public are encouraged to take advantage of the extended window to submit their memoranda and position papers, exclusively through the official National Policing Bill portal, nationalpolicingbill.com, on or before the new deadline.
According to him, developing an effective policing framework required careful consideration of a number of critical issues, including sustainable funding, command and control structures, recruitment and training standards, operational jurisdiction, inter-agency coordination, accountability mechanisms and safeguards against political interference or abuse.
“These considerations underscore the importance of robust stakeholder engagement in developing a framework that is effective, accountable, sustainable and responsive to the peculiar security needs of communities across the federation,” he added.
He noted that at the conclusion of its assignment, the Presidential Working Group will present a final, implementation-ready draft of the National Policing Bill for onward legislative processing.
The Presidential Working Group appreciated stakeholders who had already made submissions and encouraged others intending to participate in the process to take advantage of the extension.
The National Policing Bill portal went live on August 3, 2026, when Gbajabiamila first announced the public consultation window during a press briefing on the reform, at the time indicating that submissions would close after roughly two weeks.
The Working Group is expected to present the completed Executive Bill package to President Bola Tinubu for review on September 3, 2026.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) says the prevailing insecurity in parts of the country is negatively affecting its operations and revenue generation.
The Assistant Comptroller-General of Customs and Zonal Coordinator, Zone B, Mrs Nsikak Umoh, disclosed this in Minna while inspecting the Niger/Kogi Area Command Headquarters and engaging with vehicle importers on the operational challenges confronting the command.
Mrs Umoh said insecurity was not peculiar to the Niger/Kogi Area Command, but affected several Customs formations across the North-West, including Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina and Zamfara states.
“The security challenge is not peculiar to only Niger/Kogi Area Command. The whole of North-West comprising Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina and Zamfara States, which are all under my command, are facing the same security challenge,” she said.
According to her, the security situation had exposed customs personnel to increasing threats, with some officers killed or injured in the course of performing their duties, adding that the development had forced some commands to scale down their operations or adopt more cautious approaches, thereby affecting revenue collection.
Mrs Umoh explained that the service was encouraging its officers to adopt intelligence-led operations to minimise risks while ensuring that legitimate Customs duties continued.
“But we are trying our best to encourage them to use an intelligence-based operating system to do their job, and that is why in most of the commands, we have a reduction in revenue collections,” she added.
The ACG also expressed concern over the impact of insecurity on the physical and psychological wellbeing of Customs personnel, noting that some officers had developed health complications, including hypertension, due to fear and stress associated with their duties.
Despite the security challenges, Umoh said the Niger/Kogi Area Command had continued to perform strongly in revenue generation, disclosing that the command had surpassed its monthly revenue target of N17 million, generating more than N200 million as of August 12.
She commended the officers and stakeholders in the command for sustaining revenue collection despite the difficult operating environment.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has recovered more than N115 billion in statutory levies owed to the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) by defaulting oil companies between 2021 and 2023.
The recovery comprises N76.883 billion and $81.076 million, according to an EFCC representative, Mr Francis Oka-Phillips Usani, who disclosed the figures before the Senate Committee on Public Accounts on Wednesday.
Mr Usani spoke while the committee was investigating the 2021–2023 Oil and Gas Sector Audit Report of the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI).
He said the EFCC investigated 43 oil companies over outstanding three per cent statutory levies payable to the NDDC.
According to him, 24 of the companies operating in the Niger Delta were found to have outstanding liabilities of N76,883,705,907.17 and $81,076,655, while the remaining 19 companies were cleared of any outstanding liability.
“At the commencement of the investigation, EFCC invited 43 oil companies, out of which 24 operating within the Niger Delta were found to have outstanding liabilities in the sums of N76,883,705,907.17 and $81,076,655.00, while the remaining 19 other oil companies were given a clean bill of health,” Mr Usani said.
The agent explained that following the investigation and pressure mounted by the commission, some of the affected companies paid their outstanding liabilities directly to the NDDC.
He said the direct payments amounted to N6.709 billion and $16.994 million.
Mr Usani further disclosed that of the funds recovered by the EFCC on behalf of the NDDC, N73.373 billion and $67.070 million had so far been released to the commission, noting that the balance of N3.510 billion and $14.005 million remained in the EFCC’s recovery account.
He, however, stated that the commission was also mindful of other possible outstanding statutory obligations and taxes payable to the federal government.
