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KGI: 2026 Global Market Outlook

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Beyond Balance: The Next Regime

HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 13 January 2026 – Today, KGI has released its 2026 Global Market Outlook, covering markets in the US, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.

(From left) James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory; James Wey, Head of International Wealth Management at KGI; Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI

After a turbulent year of trade disruptions and policy uncertainty under President Trump, investors face new questions. China has unveiled its 15th Five-Year Plan, as policymakers aim to support domestic growth amid global challenges. The market outlook for 2026 is shaped by interest rate decisions, economic resilience, and shifting international dynamics.

Under this backdrop, we propose the “LEAD” strategy for 2026:

  1. Liquidity Shift
  2. Earnings Focused
  3. Adding Credit
  4. Diversified Assets

Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “Looking ahead to 2026, investors can adopt a LEAD strategy: L ​​stands for Liquidity Shift, benefiting from a weakening US dollar and interest rate cuts, with funds expected to flow to non-US dollar and Asian currencies; E stands for Earnings Focused, focusing on earnings growth to support valuations and allocating to US, European, and Japanese stocks; A stands for Adding Credit, locking in the credit of leading companies and increasing holdings of A-rated investment grade bonds; and D stands for Diversified Assets, responding to the upward trend in both stocks and bonds by including alternative assets to optimize asset allocation.”

Macro & US Markets
The US economy will experience a more pronounced downturn in 4Q25, which will extend into 1H26, and this will have a negative impact on consumption, slowing investment activity. Nevertheless, AI-driven productivity gains should provide some support, with US GDP growth in 2026 forecast at 2.2%. The eurozone will see moderate growth, with Germany benefiting significantly from fiscal expansion and economic improvement. Japan’s economy will strengthen on domestic demand, aided by additional fiscal stimulus. China has demonstrated resilience under trade protectionism in 2025. With inflation risks easing and labor market risks rising, the US Fed cut the interest rates in September 2025, with a total reduction of 75 bps in 2025, followed by an additional 50-75 bps in 2026.

Regarding US stocks, AI-driven productivity gains and cost reductions should sustain solid profitability, with S&P 500 earnings projected to grow by 13.55% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026. However, higher risk premiums may cap valuation upside, leading us to project a year-end target of 7,650 points. Market performance will reflect risk-driven declines in 1Q26, stabilize and recover in 2Q26, and rally significantly around the midterm elections in 4Q26. By sector, among AI-related themes we favor technology, semiconductors, utilities (on higher power demand), machinery for advanced manufacturing, and industrial REITs. Non-AI beneficiaries include aerospace and defense (on higher military spending), pharmaceuticals (on tariff benefits), and capital market segments (supported by active investment banking). As for fixed income, US economic weakness and Fed rate cuts will drive Treasury yields lower, with 10-year yields expected to fall to 3.5-3.7% by 2Q26. We recommend allocating to US Treasuries or high-rated investment-grade corporate bonds in 1H26, then rotating into high-yield bonds in 2H26 as policy rates and economic conditions reach a bottom.

James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: “AI is triggering a new productivity revolution, supporting economic growth and strengthening corporate earnings. While the US economy is expected to slow, a recession remains unlikely, and the short-term impact of tariff policies should gradually fade by the first quarter of 2026. Although the Fed may shift from cutting rates at every meeting to cutting at alternating meetings, the overall environment remains a rate-cutting cycle. In a non-recession backdrop, lower interest rates should continue to support equity market performance.”

Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets
In terms of the macroeconomy, with the conclusion of trade agreements among many countries, risks have subsided. However, due to external drag, China’s GDP growth is expected to slow slightly to 4.6% in 2026. In 2026, investors should focus on four key areas for Hong Kong and mainland China markets: (1) In the consumption sector, domestic demand continued to be the core growth driver, contributing more than half of GDP. As the “trade-in” effect diminishes, the central government is expected to implement the “15th Five-Year Plan” and economic conference plans, launching a new round of subsidies covering culture, entertainment, and sports to continuously boost consumer spending. (2) In the financial market, risk appetite has increased. Given the narrowing spread between bond yields and fixed deposit rates, large amounts of savings are flowing into the capital market seeking returns. The fundamentals of the banking and insurance industries have bottomed out, and the credit structure is accelerating its shift from real estate to supporting the real economy. (3) Regarding the issue of “anti-involution,” the PPI remains weak, and capacity reduction has become a focus. Compared to 2015, this round involves more downstream private enterprises and needs to consider employment, presenting greater challenges. While industry consolidation is expected to be lengthy, the impact is controllable and beneficial for long-term healthy development. (4) Regarding new quality productive forces, this will replace real estate and infrastructure as the main investment focus. Digital infrastructure supports AI and embodied intelligence, and humanoid robots are expected to see commercialization in 2026, “iPhone moment.” Leading companies with core technological autonomy in innovative drugs will enjoy higher valuation premiums.

Overall, we are optimistic on Hang Seng Index. We expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts to drive fund inflows to the Hong Kong and mainland stock markets. Based on an upward revision of the forward PE ratio to 13.5x and 8% earnings growth, we set a target of 30,000 points for the Hang Seng Index by the end of 2026, representing a potential upside of approximately 14%. As confidence recovers, the investment style is expected to shift from defensive to growth stocks. Recommended 12 stocks: XPeng Motors (9868), UBTECH (9880), Tencent Holdings (700), Alibaba (9988), China Hongqiao (1378), AIA Group (1299), Ping An Insurance (2318), China Merchants Bank (3968), Akeso Biopharma (9926), Pop Mart (9992), Tencent Music (1698), and Sino Land (83).

Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “2026 marks a crucial turning point for the Chinese economy. While the market anticipates GDP growth to slow to 4.6%, “new quality productive forces,” resembling humanoid robots, is taking over as a new growth engine. The most critical signal in the market is the “awakening” of idle cash—massive savings are flowing from low-interest fixed deposits to the capital market seeking returns. With risk appetite returning and policy support intensifying, now is the time to shift investment strategies from “defensive” to “growth.” Driven by both valuation repair and earnings growth, we are optimistic that the Hang Seng Index will reach 30,000 points, and the allocation value of Hong Kong and mainland China stocks has reappeared.”

Taiwan Market
Compared to the dot-com era bull run, which lasted almost five years, the current AI frenzy has been around for about three years, suggesting that the uptrend is still in its middle phase and could extend through 2026.

AI plays are trading at high PEs, such valuations are backed by strong fundamentals. In fact, the PEG ratio of Taiwan’s AI supply chain has yet to surpass 1x. We estimate that aggregate earnings of AI plays will grow by 21% YoY in 2026, following impressive upticks of 35% in 2024 and 43% in 2025. AI stocks now account for more than 60% of TAIEX earnings, and with the ongoing AI arms race, overall TAIEX earnings growth is projected to accelerate from 14% in 2025F to 20% in 2026.

Although the AI frenzy should keep the bull market intact, volatility will rise in tandem due to: (1) substantial cumulative gains, and the fact that valuations are approaching historic highs; (2) policy and political uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections; and (3) potential changes in the US Fed’s rate-cut pace. We expect the TAIEX to repeat a “smile-curve” pattern, featuring continued strength in 1Q26, followed by healthy corrections in 2Q-3Q26 before closing the year with a renewed upswing.

We think investors need to pay attention to two major themes. The first is a broad-based product spec upgrade trend across the AI supply chain, which will drive the industry into a new growth phase, with beneficiaries including foundries, GPU and ASIC designers, advanced packaging (such as CoWoS), and ODMs, as well as testing interfaces, memory, thermal solutions, CCL, ABF substrates, PCBs, switches, and power component suppliers amid strong AI computing demand and ongoing GPU platform upgrades. The second is diversification and defensive asset allocation. Innovations in consumer electronics, such as foldable iPhones and smart wearables, will provide growth opportunities, while companies with resilient domestic demand and stable high dividend yields offer a balanced strategy combining growth and income. Overall, investors should strike a balance between growth and resilience against volatility in their portfolios, in the face of market fluctuations.

James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: “The solid earnings growth driven by AI and still reasonable valuations form a strong foundation for the ongoing bull market in Taiwanese equities. With AI adoption accelerating across enterprises and consumers, demand for computing power is rising rapidly. Yet supply remains constrained by chip and power bottlenecks, meaning hardware suppliers are likely to face continued shortages through 2026. Taiwan’s AI supply chain is set to remain a key beneficiary, particularly those tied to next-generation specification upgrades.”

Singapore Market
In 9M25, the overall performance of Singapore’s economy was better than expected as the global trade tensions eased after the US pivoted on its reciprocal tariffs and reached deals with its major trading partners. The manufacturing, wholesale trade and finance & insurance sectors remained the growth pillars of the Singapore economy, and each sector delivered decent growth. In particular, manufacturing’s growth has been robust, driven by the electronics, transport engineering and biomedical manufacturing clusters. The full year outlook is upbeat, as the growth momentum shall continue till the end of the year.

Looking ahead, the global economic outlook for 2026 suggests slower GDP growth for most of Singapore’s key trading partners, including China and the Eurozone, largely due to the impact of US tariffs, which will temper demand for Southeast Asian exports, though US growth is expected to remain resilient from AI investment. Consequently, Singapore’s outward-oriented sectors, particularly manufacturing and trade-related services, are projected to expand at a slower pace than in 2025, although the electronics and related sectors will benefit from AI demand, while some precision engineering and biomedical output may moderate domestically, the construction sector is set to grow, but consumer-facing sectors are likely to remain subdued. However, the relatively low interest rates and continuous government support shall buffer the impact of the slowdown, and the capital market will still benefit from the upward re-rating catalysts.

Chen Guangzhi, Head of Research at KGI Singapore, says: “Thanks to trade de-escalation and the AI wave, Singapore experienced significant economic expansion in 2025. Proactive government initiatives turbo-charged the equity bull run, and this strong momentum is expected to deliver an optimistic economic outlook for 2026.”
Hashtag: #KGI #MarketOutlook




Wechat: KGI 凱基

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KGI

KGI* has been a leading financial institution in Asia since 1997. Our scope of business encompasses wealth management, brokerage, fixed income, and asset management. We are committed to offering a comprehensive range of financial products and services to corporate, institutional, and individual clients throughout Asia. Backed by KGI Financial Group, we have a robust footprint in Asia, covering Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand^.

*KGI refers to KGI Asia Limited and its affiliates.
^an investee enterprise of KGI Securities, not a subsidiary.

DISCLAIMER
All the information contained in this document is not intended for use by persons or entities located in or residing in jurisdictions which restrict the distribution of this document by KGI Asia Limited (“KGI”), or any other affiliates of KGI. Such information shall not constitute investment advice, or an offer to sell, or an invitation, solicitation or recommendation to subscribe for or invest in any securities, insurance or other investment products or services nor a distribution of information for any such purpose in any jurisdiction. In particular, the information herein is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities in the United States of America, or to or for the benefit of United States persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof). All the information contained in this document is for general information and reference purpose only without taking into account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs and may not be redistributed, reproduced or published (in whole or in part) by any means or for any purpose without the prior written consent of KGI. Such information is not intended to provide any legal, financial, tax or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in that regard.
All investments involve risks. The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities.
Bond investment is NOT equivalent to a time deposit. It is NOT protected under the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme. Bondholders are exposed to a variety of risks, including but not limited to: (i) Credit risk – The issuer is responsible for payment of interest and repayment of principal of bonds. If the issuer defaults, the holder of bonds may not be able to receive interest and get back the principal. It should also be noted that credit ratings assigned by credit rating agencies do not guarantee the creditworthiness of the issuer; (ii) Liquidity risk – some bonds may not have active secondary markets and it would be difficult or impossible for investors to sell the bond before its maturity; (iii) Interest rate risk – When the interest rate rises, the price of a fixed rate bond will normally drop, and vice versa. If you want to sell your bond before it matures, you may get less than your purchase price. Do not invest in bond unless you fully understand and are willing to assume the risks associated with it. Please seek independent advice if you are unsure.
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No representation or warranty is given, whether express or implied, on the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of information provided herein. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information contained herein should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information. Simulations, past and projected performance may not necessarily be indicative of future results.
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St. George’s University Prepares Future South Korean Physicians for the Growing Global Cancer Care Challenge

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04/02/2026

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SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – Media OutReach Newswire – 4 February 2026 – Rising global cancer incidence is straining healthcare systems, which already face workforce shortages. In East Asia, the number of trained physicians in cancer care, spanning diagnosis, treatment coordination, and long-term management—has not met the increasing demand. According to the Global Cancer Observatory, South Korea reported over 230,000 new cancer cases and more than 97,000 fatalities in 2022. A recent original academic research by Myongji College and The Catholic University of Korea warned that simply increasing medical school enrollments alone does not fix shortages in key specialties and underserved regions where medical demand is rising fastest.

Source: St. George’s University

Recognizing the importance of addressing workforce shortage in South Korea, St. George’s University (SGU) School of Medicine in Grenada, West Indies, highlights how its medical education approach supports the development of clinical competencies relevant to cancer care across healthcare settings.

These challenges reflect broader global trends, where cancer care increasingly depends on multidisciplinary teams rather than specialty expansion alone. SGU’s curriculum is designed to build a strong foundation in clinical diagnosis, patient communication and multidisciplinary care, which are essential skills for effective oncology and cancer-related care. Through anatomy labs, simulation-based learning, and integrated digital tools, students develop foundational clinical skills in structured, supervised environments designed to reflect real-world medical practice.

The curriculum also integrates traditional cadaveric dissection with modern 3D anatomical modeling. This blend helps students visualize the human body in a holistic way while reinforcing knowledge through their hands-on interaction. SGU’s simulation lab also enables medical students to have their first direct interaction with ill patients in a safe, simulated learning environment.

On top of core medical training, SGU offers early exposure to prevention, diagnosis and patient-centered care to prepare graduates to tackle complex health issues. SGU has developed long-standing relationships with more than 75 established hospitals and clinical centers in the US and UK. These clinical placements provide exposure to diverse patient populations and care environments, including settings where cancer diagnosis and management are part of routine clinical practice.

South Korean SGU alumni are contributing to healthcare systems through roles that intersect with cancer diagnosis, treatment coordination, and long-term patient care. For example, Dr. Julia Hweyryoung Cho, MD 2022 is practicing internal medicine, which plays a crucial role in cancer care. Internal medicine physicians are often involved in the initial diagnosis of cancer, managing complex medical conditions that may arise during treatment and providing long-term comprehensive care and survivorship planning for patients with a history of cancer.

In observance of World Cancer Day 2026, SGU encourages all medical professionals and organizations to collaboratively address global cancer care challenges. This includes recognizing and meeting the cancer healthcare needs of individuals and communities in South Korea.

For more information on the programs and tracks available through SGU School of Medicine, visit SGU’s website.Hashtag: #St.George’sUniversity

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Finalists and Semifinalists for $1 Million Seeding The Future Global Food System Challenge Announced

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23 hours ago

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03/02/2026

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BONN, GERMANY – Newsaktuell – 3 February 2026 – The Seed Grant Finalists and Growth Grant and Seeding the Future Grand Prize Semifinalists of the 5th annual Seeding The Future Global Food System Challenge (GFSC) have been announced, marking a key milestone in the USD 1 million global Challenge supporting impactful and innovative solutions to transform food systems.

Created and funded by Seeding The Future Foundation and, for the first time, hosted by Welthungerhilfe (WHH), the Challenge attracted a record 1,600+ applications from innovator teams in 112 countries, underscoring growing global momentum for food systems transformation.

Following a multi-stage, rigorous international review process, 36 teams have advanced across three award levels. These include 16 Seed Grant Finalists (competing for 8 awards of USD 25,000), 12 Growth Grant Semifinalists (competing for 3 awards of USD 100,000), and 8 Seeding The Future Grand Prize Semifinalists (competing for 2 awards of USD 250,000).

“Hosting the GFSC reflects Welthungerhilfe’s commitment to accelerating bold, scalable innovations where they are needed most. This year’s diversity of solutions underscores the complexity of food system challenges and the creativity of innovators worldwide.” said Jan Kever, Head of Innovation at Welthungerhilfe

The submitted innovations span diverse themes and approaches, including climate-smart production, nutrient-dense foods, food loss reduction, and inclusive market models, reflecting the complexity and interconnected nature of today’s food systems challenges.

“The Seeding The Future Global Food System Challenge exists to catalyze impactful, bold, and scalable innovations that advance food systems transformation. We are excited to work alongside Welthungerhilfe as a trusted partner and host of the Challenge and are encouraged by the quality and diversity of innovations emerging from this first year of collaboration.” said Bernhard van Lengerich, Founder and CEO of Seeding The Future Foundation

While the number of awards is limited, all semifinalists and finalist applicants plus all applicants with any prior recognition of other innovation competitions can join the STF Global Food System Innovation Database and Network—currently in beta testing with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations—vastly expanding their visibility and reach across a global audience.

List of 2025 GFSC Seed Grant Finalists, Growth Grant and Seeding The Future Grand Prize Semifinalists

Find details here: welthungerhilfe.org/gfsc-finalists

Seeding The Future Grand Prize Semi-Finalists

Growth Grant Semi-Finalists

Seed Grant Finalists

Hashtag: #TheFutureGlobalFoodSystemChallenge

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About Seeding The Future Foundation

STF is a private nonprofit dedicated to ensuring equitable access to safe, nutritious, affordable, and trusted food. It supports innovations that transform food systems and benefit both people and planet. More at .

About Welthungerhilfe
WHH is one of Germany’s largest private aid organizations, striving for a world without hunger since 1962. More at:

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PolyU develops novel antibody targeting fat cell protein, offering new approach to treating metabolism-related liver cancer

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03/02/2026

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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 3 February 2026 – Liver cancer is one of the three deadliest cancers worldwide, and metabolic dysfunction-related cases have become increasingly common in recent years. A research team from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) has identified a protein secreted by fat cells that promotes cancer growth and has successfully developed a novel antibody that neutralises this protein, marking a significant breakthrough in impeding the progression of liver cancer. The research findings have been published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation.

Prof. Terence Lee, Associate Head and Professor of the PolyU Department of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, and his research team have developed a novel antibody targeting the adipocyte-derived protein FABP4, offering a new approach to treating metabolism-related liver cancer.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), commonly known as fatty liver disease, currently affects around a quarter of the global population and is an important risk factor for liver cancer. In affected individuals, fat cells induce insulin resistance and chronic inflammation, leading to excessive fat accumulation in the liver. This ultimately impairs liver function and may progress to liver cancer. Treatment options for MASLD-induced liver cancer remain limited and the effectiveness of current immunotherapies is suboptimal.

A breakthrough study led by Prof. Terence LEE, Associate Head and Professor of the PolyU Department of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, and his research team has revealed that an adipocyte-derived protein, known as fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4) is a key driver that accelerates tumour growth. Through mass spectrometry, the team confirmed that patients with MASLD-induced liver cancer had markedly elevated FABP4 levels in their serum. Further investigations showed that FABP4 activates a series of pro-proliferative signalling pathways within cells, causing cancer cells to multiply and grow more rapidly.

Prof. Lee’s team has successfully developed a monoclonal antibody that neutralises FABP4. This antibody not only inhibits the growth and proliferation of FABP4-driven cancer stem cells, but also enhances the ability of immune cells to combat cancer.

Prof. Lee said, “This neutralising antibody against FABP4 demonstrates significant potential in inhibiting tumour growth and activating immune cells, providing a complementary approach to current immunotherapy strategies. Our findings highlight that targeting adipocyte-derived FABP4 holds promise for treating MASLD-induced liver cancer.”

Prof. Lee added that gaining deeper insights into how adipocyte-derived FABP4 affects liver cancer cells helps to explicate the disease mechanisms of liver cancer, particularly in obese individuals. Intervening in the relevant signalling pathways could provide effective methods to combat this aggressive malignancy.

Prof. Lee believes that, as this adipocyte-targeted immunotherapy continues to mature, it will bring more treatment options to MASLD patients. He remarked, “If its efficacy can be proven in clinical trials, it could offer new hope to many affected individuals.”

The research is supported by the Innovation and Technology Fund of the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China. PolyU has filed a non-provisional patent for the developed antibody and is continuing to optimise its binding affinity to facilitate future clinical applications.
Hashtag: #PolyU #FattyLiver #Cancer #LiverCancer #理大 #香港理工大学 #肝癌 #癌症 #脂肪肝

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