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Octa Broker Analysis: Why the U.S. Dollar is Struggling Amid Global Trade Turmoil
The U.S. dollar (USD), the buck or the greenback, as it is often informally referred to, has long occupied a rather exclusive position in global finance. Ever since the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the greenback has played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border transactions and smoothing international trade flows, in addition to serving as a primary reserve currency for central banks around the world. Being the official currency of the world’s largest economy, the United States, has certainly helped the dollar maintain its dominant position. Indeed, the sheer size of the U.S. economy, its deep and liquid financial markets, strong private property rights and the rule of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and last but not least, the unrivalled power of the U.S. military, made the dollar the most trusted global currency. As a result, the greenback became what market participants call ‘a safe-haven currency’, a refuge for investors during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market turmoil. Most recently, however, the instability in global financial markets triggered by rising trade tariffs and exacerbated by fears of a global recession seems to have upended this narrative, undermining the dollar’s established role.
Trade tensions
The U.S. dollar has been depreciating almost relentlessly since mid-January. In just three and a half months, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, lost more than 10% in value (from 13 January high to 21 April low). On 11 April, it breached the critical 100.00 level, and although it has since increased slightly, it remains by far the worst-performing currency among other major currencies this year so far. This decline has raised an important question: Is the U.S. dollar losing its safe-haven status, or is it merely a temporary setback.
The catalyst for the dollar’s slide is rooted in the escalating trade tensions, particularly the aggressive tariff policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent weeks, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much steeper duties imposed on key trading partners like China, which, in turn, retaliated with its own 125% levies on U.S. goods. These moves have stoked fears of a global recession, as international supply chains may get disrupted with potentially devastating consequences for the world economy. Historically, such uncertainty would bolster the dollar, as investors seek the safety of U.S. assets. However, this time around, the greenback is faltering, while alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) are gaining ground.
Hedging
Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, says that the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness is driven by a diversification shift among investors into alternative safe-haven currencies, motivated by risk-hedging and fears over the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. ‘We are witnessing a major reallocation of capital. Market participants realise that in a trade war, there are no winners. In the short term, the U.S. economy will face the consequences, and they will not be pretty. Big players with large investments in the U.S. realised they needed to hedge their currency risk, so they moved into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Also, higher tariffs are fuelling recession fears, so traders have increased their bets on additional rate cuts by the Fed [Federal Reserve]. That too had a bearish effect on the greenback’.
Indeed, on April 21, USDCHF dropped below the 0.80500 mark, the level unseen in almost 14 years, while USDJPY was hovering near the critical 140.00 area, a drop below which will open the way towards new multi-year lows. Significant shifts in capital flow allocations have prompted some analysts to conclude that the U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence. However, Octa analysts have a different view and believe that the current situation doesn’t reflect a broad erosion of investors’ long-term trust in the U.S. dollar. Kar Yong Ang said: ‘The issue isn’t so much a fundamental loss of faith in the U.S. dollar’s long-term prospects. What we are witnessing right now is a dramatic, yet logical response to the probable economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies. You have an administration, which is effectively re-structuring the global trade order, that does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the Fed and apparently believes in a weak dollar. If you’re a foreign investor in the U.S., you simply cannot afford to be unhedged these days. But also, let’s not forget that the greenback has been falling from relatively high levels, so a healthy downward correction was long overdue’. In other words, the recent slide in the U.S. dollar is not an unusual phenomenon or an anomaly; it is quite natural and probably a short-term occurrence. In fact, even after an 11% drop in 2025, the greenback is still some 38% above its historical low set in 2008. Furthermore, it is clear that once key global actors adopt more conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric and engage in active trade negotiations, the situation will normalise immediately.
Conclusion
As for the dollar’s long-term prospects, its dominant status will likely continue to be challenged, but no single currency can take its crown for now. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 88% of international transactions, and its dominance in Forex markets remains unmatched, with daily trading volumes dwarfing those of the yen or franc. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half (57.8%) of the $12.4 trillion in global foreign exchange reserves were in U.S. dollars. Therefore, while the greenback may not be the automatic refuge it once was, its role as a Forex cornerstone endures for now.
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively
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MSIG Hong Kong’s 2025 Claims Report Reveals Growth in Claims Settlement Ratio for Fifth Consecutive Year and Spotlights Award-Winning Travel Insurance Offerings
Launched market-first Door-to-Door Luggage Repair Service for Travel Insurance customers
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 28 July 2026 – MSIG Insurance (Hong Kong) Limited (“MSIG”) today published its 2025 Claims Report, highlighting a fifth consecutive annual rise in its claims settlement ratio since 2020, strong performance across key classes, and new customer-focused travel innovations.
In 2025, MSIG honoured HK$359 million in claims in Hong Kong and Macau and achieved a 94.7% claims settlement ratio, up from 91.1% in 2020, reflecting the insurer’s sustained commitment to extraordinary claims service and role as a trusted partner. Employees’ Compensation Hong Kong recorded a 99.87% settlement ratio, followed closely by Helper (97.57%) and Travel (96.27%).
This year’s report shows significant progress in its customer-first approach – with an over 11% year-on-year increase in compliments received from customers, as well as 100% of the insurer’s 2025 Google reviews being 5-star rated.
Philip Kent, Chief Executive Officer of MSIG Hong Kong, said: “In a year of rapid change, our teams have stayed close to our customers and continued to put forward products and services that have truly helped when it mattered most. That’s what a customer-first mindset is all about and the results are clear from this year’s claims report. From innovative travel protection to extraordinary claims servicing, we continue to invest in bringing unique-to-market product features to our customers as their trusted partner, and are fully committed to further enhancing our service experience to deliver the assurance they need at every stage of their life journey.”
MSIG’s innovations in Travel Insurance also earned notable industry recognition in 2025 and 2026, reinforcing the strength of the offerings and the value they are delivering to customers:
- Won the Travel Insurance category at the 10Life 5-Star Insurance Awards 2026
- Top 3 Finalists in “Most Innovative Product/Service Award (General Insurance)” at the Hong Kong Insurance Awards 2025
New Travel Insurance services
In April 2025, MSIG launched two travel services designed to make support faster and more seamless. The market-first Door-to-Door Luggage Repair Service completed 135 luggage repair requests from April to December 2025, equal to 16% of all luggage damage claims, while Overseas Medical Teleconsultation simplifies access to care while travelling abroad. These new services reflect innovation in an area where customers value convenience, speed and reassurance.
MSIG built on that momentum in October 2025 with upgraded Travel Insurance products that added new benefits, including Cancellation of Journey for Any Reason. The enhancement gives travellers greater flexibility and strengthens MSIG’s position in a critical category where expectations are rising around responsive, real-world protection.
Beyond travel, the report highlights a wide range of cases of MSIG’s broader focus on customer-centred claims service across personal and commercial lines – demonstrating a commitment not only to efficient claims handling, but also to helping customers navigate disruption and move forward.
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About MSIG Insurance (Hong Kong) Limited (“MSIG”)
MSIG is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co Ltd and a member of the MS&AD Insurance Group, Asia’s leading general insurance brand with presence in 50 countries and regions globally. The Group is amongst the world’s top 10 insurance groups based on gross revenue and one of Japan’s leading insurers with A+ Stable credit rating. With over 40,000 employees world-wide, MSIG is represented in all ASEAN markets as well as in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Korea, India and Taiwan.
MSIG has been providing general insurance solutions to customers in Hong Kong for more than 170 years, dating as far back as 1855. We offer a wide range of solutions and services through an extensive distribution network including agents, brokers, and strategic partnerships with leading banks as well as growing collaborations with digital and consumer platforms.
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Swiss-Belhotel International Expands Bali Portfolio with the Soft Opening of The 5-Star Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali
The launch reflects the group’s unwavering confidence in Bali’s resilient luxury tourism segment. Designed to meet the evolving preferences of modern travelers, Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali brings sophisticated international hospitality standards to a sanctuary engineered for multi-generational family bonding, couples’ retreats, and immersive, experience-focused stays.
Sudharman Shetty, President Director of PT Ratna Forever Hospitality, stated:
“The development of Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali represents a strategic step in expanding our hospitality business while supporting the growth of quality tourism in Ubud. We believe that Ubud’s natural beauty, cultural heritage, and unique attractions can be combined with international service standards to create a destination with strong value and long-term sustainability. Through the presence of the Swiss-Belresort brand, we hope Ashva will grow into a preferred resort choice for both domestic and international travellers, while also making a positive contribution to the local community and economy,” said Sudharman Shetty, Founder & Owner of Ratna Forever Hospitality.”
Gavin M. Faull, Chairman and President of Swiss-Belhotel International, added: “Indonesia continues to be a cornerstone of our global expansion vision. This development not only reflects the deep trust of our partners at PT Ratna Forever Hospitality in our balanced approach to guest comfort and operational excellence, but it also underscores our strong confidence in the market—particularly within the high-growth segment of travelers seeking spacious, lifestyle-oriented resort experiences.”
Developed with a contemporary yet culturally rooted resort concept, Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali features 90 beautifully appointed guestrooms and suites, alongside 4 exclusive wooden pavilions. Accommodations range from a generous 40 to 106 square meters, perfectly catering to families and groups. Select premium room and suite tiers elevate the stay experience with private heated plunge pools and smart in-room technology.
The culinary landscape introduces diverse dining destinations, including Giwangkara All Day Dining and the renowned Udupi Multi-Cuisine Restaurant, which boasts a strictly separated, dedicated kitchen section for pure vegetarian preparation.
The resort’s striking architectural centerpiece is a terraced swimming pool concept, designed with cascading water elements and a Petanu Pool Bar overlooking Ubud’s layered natural landscape. To accommodate business and celebratory milestones, the property features a grand ballroom, versatile meeting spaces, and scenic outdoor areas beautifully tailored for weddings and social events.
Ilkin Ilyaszade, Senior Vice President – Operations and Development, Indonesia at Swiss-Belhotel International, commented: “As we actively strengthen our footprint across key hubs in Indonesia, Bali remains an essential, highly resilient destination with exceptional growth potential. The soft opening of Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali directly supports this trajectory. Beyond creating vibrant leisure experiences, our comprehensive facilities and scenic setting are strategically positioned to capture the rising demand for premium corporate meetings, weddings, and high-profile social events.”
During the soft opening phase in July and August 2026, guests can take advantage of exclusive introductory rates before the resort transitions to its grand launch in September. To discover a new expression of refined living or to secure reservations, please visit ashvaswiss-belresort.com.
SBEC Loyalty Programme: Enjoy 10%–35% OFF on Rooms, Dining, and other services at 165+ hotels globally by becoming an SBEC loyalty member. Sign up for FREE and enjoy instant benefits through the Swiss-Belhotel International App—available in the App Store and Google Play Store.
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About Swiss-Belhotel International
Swiss-Belhotel International operates in 20 countries, managing 165+* hotels, resorts, and projects across New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, with regional offices in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Australia, China, Indonesia, UAE, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. Committed to delivering world-class hospitality, the group also offers the Swiss-Belexecutive Card (SBEC), a loyalty program providing many benefits, discounts from 10% to 35% on rooms, dining, and other services, plus priority check-in, complimentary upgrades, and late check-out. No collecting points, no waiting for redemption, with the free-to-join Green Global tier, members can enjoy instant discounts from their first stay! Book stays and access special offers tailored for SBI guests and SBEC members through the Swiss-Belhotel International App – available in App Store and Google Play Store. Stay connected with us on Facebook, Linkedin, Instagram, and 
TikTok for the latest updates and exclusive benefits. Visit swiss-belhotel.com for more information.
*Numbers may fluctuate
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Nota Sign Integrates with Hong Kong’s iAM Smart, Enabling One-Stop Account Opening, Employee Onboarding and Contract Signing for Businesses and Residents
As Hong Kong continues to advance its digital government infrastructure, iAM Smart has become an important gateway connecting public services with digital commercial services. By the first quarter of 2026, the iAM Smart mobile application had recorded more than 10 million cumulative downloads and connected users to over 1,400 online services and electronic forms provided by government departments, public organisations and private institutions.
Through its integration with this digital identity ecosystem, Nota Sign has further strengthened its local digital signing capabilities in Hong Kong.
Designed to support electronic signature and data privacy requirements in more than 100 countries and regions, Nota Sign complies with major international regulatory frameworks, including the EU eIDAS Regulation, the US ESIGN Act, Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance and the GDPR.
The platform has completed ISO/IEC 27001 and ISO/IEC 27701 certifications, as well as SOC 2 Type I and Type II audits. It supports local digital identity systems in markets including Hong Kong and Singapore and operates data centres in key regions worldwide to meet data localisation requirements, fulfilling its commitment to “Sign with Global Trust.”
Through its deep integration with iAM Smart, Nota Sign enables both corporate and individual users to complete trusted identity verification and legally valid digital signatures using their iAM Smart accounts.
The integration connects Nota Sign directly with Hong Kong’s official digital identity infrastructure and further embeds the platform into the city’s digital government ecosystem. It provides government organisations, businesses and individuals in the Greater Bay Area, particularly those in Hong Kong, with a safer, more efficient and standardised one-stop digital signing solution.
Developed by the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, iAM Smart is a one-stop digital identity authentication platform. Its compliant digital signing framework is established in accordance with Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance.
The platform serves as a key gateway through which Hong Kong residents and businesses access digital government and commercial services. It provides trusted identity verification, encrypted security and fully traceable records and is widely used across public service applications, commercial transactions and identity verification scenarios.
The integration brings together the core capabilities of iAM Smart and Nota Sign. Hong Kong users can authorise access to Nota Sign with one click using their iAM Smart accounts, eliminating repeated registration and data entry and significantly simplifying identity verification during cross-border signing processes.
Users can also verify their identities through iAM Smart and use Nota Sign to sign contracts, commercial documents and official records online. Data is encrypted throughout the process, all actions are recorded and signing activities remain fully traceable, helping ensure that the resulting signatures meet applicable legal and regulatory requirements.
For users, the integration between Nota Sign and iAM Smart creates a more convenient and trusted digital signing experience for both businesses and individuals.
Whether handling local transactions in Hong Kong, collaborating across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area or conducting cross-border commercial activities, users can reduce repeated identity checks, paper document circulation and in-person procedures, improving both operational efficiency and the overall digital service experience.
Nota Sign supports a wide range of high-frequency signing scenarios, including business operations, financial services, human resources, commercial collaboration and personal affairs. Typical applications include the following:
Nota Sign can be used for local Hong Kong business activities and cross-border collaboration across the Greater Bay Area, including supply chain coordination, procurement transactions and service partnerships.
Businesses can initiate cooperation agreements, procurement contracts, service agreements, supply chain reconciliation confirmations and other commercial documents through Nota Sign.
Signatories can then use iAM Smart to complete identity authentication and digital signing, improving business collaboration efficiency and delivering a smoother signing experience.
For cross-regional employment, businesses can initiate online signing processes for offer letters, employment contracts, confidentiality agreements, non-compete agreements and overseas or cross-border assignment documents.
Employees can authenticate their identities and sign digitally through iAM Smart, allowing onboarding documentation to be completed entirely online. This reduces the costs associated with manual identity verification and paper document circulation while improving the efficiency of human resources management.
Nota Sign can support digital processes involving account opening, insurance applications, wealth management and corporate services.
Businesses can embed iAM Smart’s identity authentication capabilities into Nota Sign signing workflows. Once customers have completed identity verification, they can immediately sign account-opening agreements, authorisation documents, service agreements and other materials.
This reduces repeated authentication and duplicate data entry, providing customers with a smoother and more efficient online service experience.
Hong Kong residents can use iAM Smart to verify their identities and sign digitally when entering into tenancy agreements, granting personal authorisations or handling cross-border mandates.
Users no longer need to repeatedly enter their identity details or attend multiple in-person verification appointments. This improves the efficiency of a wide range of digital processes and makes signing more convenient and intuitive.
Huang Xiang, Founder and CEO of Fadada, said that the integration with iAM Smart represents an important strategic step in Nota Sign’s continued development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It also strengthens the platform’s local compliance service ecosystem and regional service capabilities.
Nota Sign previously established a partnership with Digi-Sign, the first commercial recognised certification authority under Hong Kong’s Tradelink.
Overseas users who do not have an iAM Smart account can use Tradelink iD-One, together with passport-based electronic Know Your Customer verification, to complete identity verification and apply for a digital certificate.
Following the integration with iAM Smart, Hong Kong residents can now complete identity authentication and digital signing directly through their iAM Smart accounts.
These two identity verification channels serve different user groups and further strengthen Nota Sign’s identity authentication network in Hong Kong.
Looking ahead, Nota Sign will continue to leverage its mature cross-border signing technology and compliance framework to provide reliable digital signing infrastructure for Chinese enterprises expanding overseas, Hong Kong and Macao businesses entering the Chinese mainland, and cross-border industrial collaboration across the Greater Bay Area.
Through these capabilities, Nota Sign aims to establish a leading cross-border electronic signing platform rooted in the Greater Bay Area and serving organisations worldwide.
Nota Sign is Fadada’s global electronic signature platform. It is designed to support electronic signature and data privacy requirements in more than 100 countries and regions and complies with regulatory frameworks including the EU eIDAS Regulation, the US ESIGN Act, Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance and the GDPR.
The platform integrates with dozens of recognised overseas certification authorities and provides electronic signature solutions at multiple assurance levels.
Nota Sign has completed ISO/IEC 27001 and ISO/IEC 27701 certifications, as well as a SOC 2 Type I audit. It operates data centres in key regions worldwide to meet data localisation requirements and supports localised signing services such as Singapore’s Singpass.
The platform has also introduced a GxP-compliant electronic signature solution designed to meet international regulatory requirements, including FDA 21 CFR Part 11 and EU Annex 11.
Powered by a legal-specific large language model, Nota Sign provides artificial intelligence capabilities such as intelligent contract review and multilingual document comparison.
It also supports integration with mainstream enterprise systems, including Salesforce and SAP, significantly shortening cross-border signing cycles and helping businesses “Sign with Global Trust.”
Fadada
www.notasign.com
ze****@****da.com
Hashtag: #FaDaDa #NotaSign
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