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Southeast Asia Navigates U.S. Tariffs: An Octa Broker Analysis
Ever since Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States (U.S.), the markets have grown increasingly concerned about the health of the world economy. Specifically, the outlook for the international trade order became uncertain as Trump’s 2024 election platform included expansive claims about new tariffs. Indeed, on 2 April, 2025, Trump unveiled his long-promised ‘reciprocal’ tariffs strategy, essentially imposing hefty import duties on more than a hundred of countries. However, less than a week after revealing his reciprocal tariffs, Trump adjusted his policy, declaring that countries that had not retaliated would receive a reprieve until July and would only face a blanket US tariff of 10%. At the same time, the tariffs on China were increased even further.
The principal idea behind Trump’s aggressive trade policy is that higher import costs would encourage global manufacturers to re-locate production into the U.S., while also pressuring other nations to buy more U.S. goods, thereby correcting the U.S.’s massive trade deficit. Thus, counties that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. have most to fear and most to lose from these tariffs. Many of these countries are located in South and Southeast Asia (see the table below). For these countries, Trump’s decision to pause the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has offered a critical window for negotiation.
| Trade balance with the U.S. (million USD) | Share of U.S. imports | After reciprocal tariffs imposed | Total until July | |
| Cambodia | 9,652 | <1% | 49% | 10% |
| China | 359,850 | 13.4% | 34% | negotiations still ongoing |
| India | 42,931 | 2.7% | 26% | 10% |
| Indonesia | 12,638 | <1% | 32% | 10% |
| Laos | -109 | <1% | 48% | 10% |
| Malaysia | 15,744 | 1.6% | 24% | 10% |
| Myanmar | 361 | <1% | 44% | 10% |
| Philippines | 3,276 | <1% | 17% | 10% |
| Singapore | -11,850 | 1.3% | 10% | 10% |
| Thailand | 35,045 | 1.9% | 36% | 10% |
| Vietnam | 103,392 | 4.2% | 46% | 10% |
Source: International Monetary Fund, White House
The negotiations between the U.S. with China commenced and have already yielded some positive results. There is hope among other Asian states that similar productive discussions and agreements to mitigate the impact of the proposed tariffs can follow. The coming weeks are crucial as countries navigate the negotiation period before the 90-day pause expires, seeking to secure more favorable trade conditions with the U.S.
China is a central focus of the U.S. trade policy. In 2024, the total value of goods traded between two countries was approximately $582.4 billion. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports of electronic equipment and machinery, while China primarily imports U.S. mineral fuels, oil seeds, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances. However, the trade balance significantly favors China, which recorded a $360 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024, according to IMF data.
Last Monday, Donald Trump announced a broad trade deal with Beijing that lowered import taxes on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. China, in turn, lowered its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. The reductions will hold for the next 90 days, while the two countries negotiate a longer-term deal. A few days later, the U.S. cut the so-called ‘de minimis’ tariff for low-value shipments from China to as low as 30%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had paused some non-tariff measures taken against 17 U.S. entities put on its unreliable entity list in April and 28 U.S. entities on its export control list.
‘A full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies would have been disastrous for the global market. Thankfully, the officials agreed to de-escalate it quickly. However, we are still not out of the woods yet’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, adding that a long-term trade agreement between China and the U.S. is yet to be finalized and that markets are being a bit too optimistic right now. ‘Let’s not forget that Trump tried to renegotiate a trade deal with China during his 1st term, but the talks failed in 2019 despite the fact that there was agreement in principle. And I personally believe that the markets are a bit too optimistic about the prospects for a grand deal this time’.
Indeed, U.S. equity indices have recovered swiftly following the decision to de-escalate, but the rally may not last. ‘It would not take much for the bearish sentiment to reemerge. Although tariffs have been lowered, the existing tariffs are still doing damage to the global economy. U.S. inflation is likely to pick up in the months ahead and that would prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from delivering on anticipated rate cuts, which may trigger a major selloff in equities’, comments Kar Yong Ang. Either way, other Asian countries are monitoring the progress carefully and are also engaged in active discussions with the U.S. officials.
Vietnam faces duties of 46% on its exports to the U.S. if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. As a major export-reliant industrial hub, to where numerous companies have relocated (not least in order to lower their exposure to China), Vietnam runs the second-largest trade surplus with the U.S. among Asian countries. It is, therefore, unsurprising, that the two countries began informal talks to avoid tariffs well before Trump announced global reciprocal duties on 2 April. Among the issues discussed are the reduction of Vietnam’s big trade surplus, the fight against trade fraud such as illegal transshipments, the lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. businesses and enhanced protection of intellectual property, including the fight against counterfeits and digital piracy.
‘Vietnam stands to lose a lot should trade talks fail. Companies like Apple, Nike, and Samsung Electronics have large manufacturing operations in the country and may consider leaving altogether if a 46% duty is introduced. I think Vietnamese authorities will do their best to achieve a trade deal with the U.S.’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
Indeed, just a few days ago, Vietnam News Agency reported that Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered a one-month intensive campaign to crack down on smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit goods. Previously, the news surfaced that the Trump Organization was partnering with Vietnam on potential investments in hotel, real estate and golf course projects possibly worth billions of dollars.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Vietnam’s largest export market with a share of at least 30% and more than $110 billion worth of shipments.
Thailand faces duties of 36% on its exports to the U.S. According to the Bangkok Post, Thai government had said that it would increase imports of U.S. goods, such as corn, soybean meal, crude, ethane, liquified natural gas, autos and electronics to reduce its bilateral trade surplus. In addition, the government submitted a separate trade proposal to the U.S., which included 5 to 6 key points. Last Monday, the head of Thailand Trade Representatives met with U.S. senators, congressional leaders, and major American companies, in a bid to reaffirm Thailand’s role as a key investor in the country and explore joint Thai-U.S. manufacturing.
‘Thailand has clearly taken the trade matters quite seriously despite its relatively small trade surplus. There are good chances that a final agreement could be reached before global pause expires in July’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Thailand’s largest export market with a share of at least 16% and more than $50 billion worth of shipments.
Malaysia faces duties of 24% on its exports to the U.S. However, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, recently said that he was ‘optimistic‘ for a trade agreement with the U.S. within a 90-day period. He visited the U.S. at the end of April and was fully committed to resolving the differences. ‘All communication lines remain open and we will continue to work towards an amicable solution to this reciprocal tariff matter’, Tengku Zafrul Aziz said.
‘It seems like the Forex market shares the trade minister’s optimism. The Malaysian ringgit has been strengthening lately. USDMYR may potentially drop below 4.240 if a trade deal is struck’, commented Kar Yong Ang.
According to the WorldBank, United States is Malaysia’s third largest export market with a share of at least 11% and more than $40 billion worth of shipments.
Indonesia plans to “narrow” or even eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. by importing more agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn from the U.S. Overall, Indonesia’s reaction to Trump tariffs has been rather muted probably because exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, Indonesia’s exports are relatively well diversified and although the U. S. is an important export destination, its share is relatively minor.
According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Indonesia’s second largest export market with a share of at least 10% and more than $30 billion worth of shipments.
On balance, Asian nations find themselves in a crucial period, actively negotiating with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. While the progress achieved during the U.S.-China talks offers some hope, the diverse situations and negotiating stances of countries like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia highlight the complexity of reaching widespread agreements. As Octa Broker analysts suggest, the optimism surrounding these trade discussions should be tempered with the understanding that lasting resolutions remain uncertain, and market reactions may be premature.
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
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MSIG Hong Kong’s 2025 Claims Report Reveals Growth in Claims Settlement Ratio for Fifth Consecutive Year and Spotlights Award-Winning Travel Insurance Offerings
Launched market-first Door-to-Door Luggage Repair Service for Travel Insurance customers
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 28 July 2026 – MSIG Insurance (Hong Kong) Limited (“MSIG”) today published its 2025 Claims Report, highlighting a fifth consecutive annual rise in its claims settlement ratio since 2020, strong performance across key classes, and new customer-focused travel innovations.
In 2025, MSIG honoured HK$359 million in claims in Hong Kong and Macau and achieved a 94.7% claims settlement ratio, up from 91.1% in 2020, reflecting the insurer’s sustained commitment to extraordinary claims service and role as a trusted partner. Employees’ Compensation Hong Kong recorded a 99.87% settlement ratio, followed closely by Helper (97.57%) and Travel (96.27%).
This year’s report shows significant progress in its customer-first approach – with an over 11% year-on-year increase in compliments received from customers, as well as 100% of the insurer’s 2025 Google reviews being 5-star rated.
Philip Kent, Chief Executive Officer of MSIG Hong Kong, said: “In a year of rapid change, our teams have stayed close to our customers and continued to put forward products and services that have truly helped when it mattered most. That’s what a customer-first mindset is all about and the results are clear from this year’s claims report. From innovative travel protection to extraordinary claims servicing, we continue to invest in bringing unique-to-market product features to our customers as their trusted partner, and are fully committed to further enhancing our service experience to deliver the assurance they need at every stage of their life journey.”
MSIG’s innovations in Travel Insurance also earned notable industry recognition in 2025 and 2026, reinforcing the strength of the offerings and the value they are delivering to customers:
- Won the Travel Insurance category at the 10Life 5-Star Insurance Awards 2026
- Top 3 Finalists in “Most Innovative Product/Service Award (General Insurance)” at the Hong Kong Insurance Awards 2025
New Travel Insurance services
In April 2025, MSIG launched two travel services designed to make support faster and more seamless. The market-first Door-to-Door Luggage Repair Service completed 135 luggage repair requests from April to December 2025, equal to 16% of all luggage damage claims, while Overseas Medical Teleconsultation simplifies access to care while travelling abroad. These new services reflect innovation in an area where customers value convenience, speed and reassurance.
MSIG built on that momentum in October 2025 with upgraded Travel Insurance products that added new benefits, including Cancellation of Journey for Any Reason. The enhancement gives travellers greater flexibility and strengthens MSIG’s position in a critical category where expectations are rising around responsive, real-world protection.
Beyond travel, the report highlights a wide range of cases of MSIG’s broader focus on customer-centred claims service across personal and commercial lines – demonstrating a commitment not only to efficient claims handling, but also to helping customers navigate disruption and move forward.
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About MSIG Insurance (Hong Kong) Limited (“MSIG”)
MSIG is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co Ltd and a member of the MS&AD Insurance Group, Asia’s leading general insurance brand with presence in 50 countries and regions globally. The Group is amongst the world’s top 10 insurance groups based on gross revenue and one of Japan’s leading insurers with A+ Stable credit rating. With over 40,000 employees world-wide, MSIG is represented in all ASEAN markets as well as in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Korea, India and Taiwan.
MSIG has been providing general insurance solutions to customers in Hong Kong for more than 170 years, dating as far back as 1855. We offer a wide range of solutions and services through an extensive distribution network including agents, brokers, and strategic partnerships with leading banks as well as growing collaborations with digital and consumer platforms.
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Swiss-Belhotel International Expands Bali Portfolio with the Soft Opening of The 5-Star Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali
The launch reflects the group’s unwavering confidence in Bali’s resilient luxury tourism segment. Designed to meet the evolving preferences of modern travelers, Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali brings sophisticated international hospitality standards to a sanctuary engineered for multi-generational family bonding, couples’ retreats, and immersive, experience-focused stays.
Sudharman Shetty, President Director of PT Ratna Forever Hospitality, stated:
“The development of Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali represents a strategic step in expanding our hospitality business while supporting the growth of quality tourism in Ubud. We believe that Ubud’s natural beauty, cultural heritage, and unique attractions can be combined with international service standards to create a destination with strong value and long-term sustainability. Through the presence of the Swiss-Belresort brand, we hope Ashva will grow into a preferred resort choice for both domestic and international travellers, while also making a positive contribution to the local community and economy,” said Sudharman Shetty, Founder & Owner of Ratna Forever Hospitality.”
Gavin M. Faull, Chairman and President of Swiss-Belhotel International, added: “Indonesia continues to be a cornerstone of our global expansion vision. This development not only reflects the deep trust of our partners at PT Ratna Forever Hospitality in our balanced approach to guest comfort and operational excellence, but it also underscores our strong confidence in the market—particularly within the high-growth segment of travelers seeking spacious, lifestyle-oriented resort experiences.”
Developed with a contemporary yet culturally rooted resort concept, Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali features 90 beautifully appointed guestrooms and suites, alongside 4 exclusive wooden pavilions. Accommodations range from a generous 40 to 106 square meters, perfectly catering to families and groups. Select premium room and suite tiers elevate the stay experience with private heated plunge pools and smart in-room technology.
The culinary landscape introduces diverse dining destinations, including Giwangkara All Day Dining and the renowned Udupi Multi-Cuisine Restaurant, which boasts a strictly separated, dedicated kitchen section for pure vegetarian preparation.
The resort’s striking architectural centerpiece is a terraced swimming pool concept, designed with cascading water elements and a Petanu Pool Bar overlooking Ubud’s layered natural landscape. To accommodate business and celebratory milestones, the property features a grand ballroom, versatile meeting spaces, and scenic outdoor areas beautifully tailored for weddings and social events.
Ilkin Ilyaszade, Senior Vice President – Operations and Development, Indonesia at Swiss-Belhotel International, commented: “As we actively strengthen our footprint across key hubs in Indonesia, Bali remains an essential, highly resilient destination with exceptional growth potential. The soft opening of Ashva Swiss-Belresort Ubud Bali directly supports this trajectory. Beyond creating vibrant leisure experiences, our comprehensive facilities and scenic setting are strategically positioned to capture the rising demand for premium corporate meetings, weddings, and high-profile social events.”
During the soft opening phase in July and August 2026, guests can take advantage of exclusive introductory rates before the resort transitions to its grand launch in September. To discover a new expression of refined living or to secure reservations, please visit ashvaswiss-belresort.com.
SBEC Loyalty Programme: Enjoy 10%–35% OFF on Rooms, Dining, and other services at 165+ hotels globally by becoming an SBEC loyalty member. Sign up for FREE and enjoy instant benefits through the Swiss-Belhotel International App—available in the App Store and Google Play Store.
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About Swiss-Belhotel International
Swiss-Belhotel International operates in 20 countries, managing 165+* hotels, resorts, and projects across New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, with regional offices in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Australia, China, Indonesia, UAE, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. Committed to delivering world-class hospitality, the group also offers the Swiss-Belexecutive Card (SBEC), a loyalty program providing many benefits, discounts from 10% to 35% on rooms, dining, and other services, plus priority check-in, complimentary upgrades, and late check-out. No collecting points, no waiting for redemption, with the free-to-join Green Global tier, members can enjoy instant discounts from their first stay! Book stays and access special offers tailored for SBI guests and SBEC members through the Swiss-Belhotel International App – available in App Store and Google Play Store. Stay connected with us on Facebook, Linkedin, Instagram, and 
TikTok for the latest updates and exclusive benefits. Visit swiss-belhotel.com for more information.
*Numbers may fluctuate
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Nota Sign Integrates with Hong Kong’s iAM Smart, Enabling One-Stop Account Opening, Employee Onboarding and Contract Signing for Businesses and Residents
As Hong Kong continues to advance its digital government infrastructure, iAM Smart has become an important gateway connecting public services with digital commercial services. By the first quarter of 2026, the iAM Smart mobile application had recorded more than 10 million cumulative downloads and connected users to over 1,400 online services and electronic forms provided by government departments, public organisations and private institutions.
Through its integration with this digital identity ecosystem, Nota Sign has further strengthened its local digital signing capabilities in Hong Kong.
Designed to support electronic signature and data privacy requirements in more than 100 countries and regions, Nota Sign complies with major international regulatory frameworks, including the EU eIDAS Regulation, the US ESIGN Act, Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance and the GDPR.
The platform has completed ISO/IEC 27001 and ISO/IEC 27701 certifications, as well as SOC 2 Type I and Type II audits. It supports local digital identity systems in markets including Hong Kong and Singapore and operates data centres in key regions worldwide to meet data localisation requirements, fulfilling its commitment to “Sign with Global Trust.”
Through its deep integration with iAM Smart, Nota Sign enables both corporate and individual users to complete trusted identity verification and legally valid digital signatures using their iAM Smart accounts.
The integration connects Nota Sign directly with Hong Kong’s official digital identity infrastructure and further embeds the platform into the city’s digital government ecosystem. It provides government organisations, businesses and individuals in the Greater Bay Area, particularly those in Hong Kong, with a safer, more efficient and standardised one-stop digital signing solution.
Developed by the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, iAM Smart is a one-stop digital identity authentication platform. Its compliant digital signing framework is established in accordance with Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance.
The platform serves as a key gateway through which Hong Kong residents and businesses access digital government and commercial services. It provides trusted identity verification, encrypted security and fully traceable records and is widely used across public service applications, commercial transactions and identity verification scenarios.
The integration brings together the core capabilities of iAM Smart and Nota Sign. Hong Kong users can authorise access to Nota Sign with one click using their iAM Smart accounts, eliminating repeated registration and data entry and significantly simplifying identity verification during cross-border signing processes.
Users can also verify their identities through iAM Smart and use Nota Sign to sign contracts, commercial documents and official records online. Data is encrypted throughout the process, all actions are recorded and signing activities remain fully traceable, helping ensure that the resulting signatures meet applicable legal and regulatory requirements.
For users, the integration between Nota Sign and iAM Smart creates a more convenient and trusted digital signing experience for both businesses and individuals.
Whether handling local transactions in Hong Kong, collaborating across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area or conducting cross-border commercial activities, users can reduce repeated identity checks, paper document circulation and in-person procedures, improving both operational efficiency and the overall digital service experience.
Nota Sign supports a wide range of high-frequency signing scenarios, including business operations, financial services, human resources, commercial collaboration and personal affairs. Typical applications include the following:
Nota Sign can be used for local Hong Kong business activities and cross-border collaboration across the Greater Bay Area, including supply chain coordination, procurement transactions and service partnerships.
Businesses can initiate cooperation agreements, procurement contracts, service agreements, supply chain reconciliation confirmations and other commercial documents through Nota Sign.
Signatories can then use iAM Smart to complete identity authentication and digital signing, improving business collaboration efficiency and delivering a smoother signing experience.
For cross-regional employment, businesses can initiate online signing processes for offer letters, employment contracts, confidentiality agreements, non-compete agreements and overseas or cross-border assignment documents.
Employees can authenticate their identities and sign digitally through iAM Smart, allowing onboarding documentation to be completed entirely online. This reduces the costs associated with manual identity verification and paper document circulation while improving the efficiency of human resources management.
Nota Sign can support digital processes involving account opening, insurance applications, wealth management and corporate services.
Businesses can embed iAM Smart’s identity authentication capabilities into Nota Sign signing workflows. Once customers have completed identity verification, they can immediately sign account-opening agreements, authorisation documents, service agreements and other materials.
This reduces repeated authentication and duplicate data entry, providing customers with a smoother and more efficient online service experience.
Hong Kong residents can use iAM Smart to verify their identities and sign digitally when entering into tenancy agreements, granting personal authorisations or handling cross-border mandates.
Users no longer need to repeatedly enter their identity details or attend multiple in-person verification appointments. This improves the efficiency of a wide range of digital processes and makes signing more convenient and intuitive.
Huang Xiang, Founder and CEO of Fadada, said that the integration with iAM Smart represents an important strategic step in Nota Sign’s continued development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It also strengthens the platform’s local compliance service ecosystem and regional service capabilities.
Nota Sign previously established a partnership with Digi-Sign, the first commercial recognised certification authority under Hong Kong’s Tradelink.
Overseas users who do not have an iAM Smart account can use Tradelink iD-One, together with passport-based electronic Know Your Customer verification, to complete identity verification and apply for a digital certificate.
Following the integration with iAM Smart, Hong Kong residents can now complete identity authentication and digital signing directly through their iAM Smart accounts.
These two identity verification channels serve different user groups and further strengthen Nota Sign’s identity authentication network in Hong Kong.
Looking ahead, Nota Sign will continue to leverage its mature cross-border signing technology and compliance framework to provide reliable digital signing infrastructure for Chinese enterprises expanding overseas, Hong Kong and Macao businesses entering the Chinese mainland, and cross-border industrial collaboration across the Greater Bay Area.
Through these capabilities, Nota Sign aims to establish a leading cross-border electronic signing platform rooted in the Greater Bay Area and serving organisations worldwide.
Nota Sign is Fadada’s global electronic signature platform. It is designed to support electronic signature and data privacy requirements in more than 100 countries and regions and complies with regulatory frameworks including the EU eIDAS Regulation, the US ESIGN Act, Hong Kong’s Electronic Transactions Ordinance and the GDPR.
The platform integrates with dozens of recognised overseas certification authorities and provides electronic signature solutions at multiple assurance levels.
Nota Sign has completed ISO/IEC 27001 and ISO/IEC 27701 certifications, as well as a SOC 2 Type I audit. It operates data centres in key regions worldwide to meet data localisation requirements and supports localised signing services such as Singapore’s Singpass.
The platform has also introduced a GxP-compliant electronic signature solution designed to meet international regulatory requirements, including FDA 21 CFR Part 11 and EU Annex 11.
Powered by a legal-specific large language model, Nota Sign provides artificial intelligence capabilities such as intelligent contract review and multilingual document comparison.
It also supports integration with mainstream enterprise systems, including Salesforce and SAP, significantly shortening cross-border signing cycles and helping businesses “Sign with Global Trust.”
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