Sports
The Illusion of Control in Sports Betting
The term “Illusion of Control” was not formulated until 1975, but this effect has been around since olden times. The illusion of control is a person’s belief that he is controlling a situation, although the situation is free floating. This effect occurs when a person benefits in some way from the positive outcome of an event.
This state is well described by the lottery game. In the situation when a person crosses out the numbers himself, he has the feeling that he influences the situation, although the probability that he will win is the same as in the situation when he gets a ticket with a random set of numbers. In turn, the player who tosses a coin thinks he has a better chance of guessing its side than in a situation where another person tosses it.
If you can get the hang of the illusion of control, you can be successful in betting. Betwinner Uganda is your best guide into the world of excitement. You can register in no time, get acquainted with a marvellous interface, and place sports bets. There’s no better feeling in the world than winning, and Betwinner will make your betting experience unforgettable.
As for betting, a simple as it gets experiment can be conducted to prove how the illusion of control works in betting. Imagine a situation where a bookmaker gives odds of 1.94-1.94 on equally likely events. The betting company has already put a three per cent margin on the odds, which should look like 2.00-2.00. Suppose a player has analyzed an event and comes to the conclusion that the first outcome is more likely to pass. If he is offered to give up his bet in favour of the opposite bet with odds of 2.05, the bettor will surely refuse. The absolute majority of players will refuse such a roll, though in case of replacing the bet he will get the top-notch odds.
There are other situations related to the effect of the illusion of control, which is familiar to many bettors. Some players have won a few bets in Live betting while drinking coffee and now cannot do without coffee while betting, while others have noted that success comes to them during lunchtime bets. There are many such situations, but you have to understand that you can’t even indirectly influence the outcome of a sporting event. It depends on entirely other factors.
For you not to become a direct participant in the illusion of control in sports betting, you need to understand the following things:
- There is essential information to use in your analysis that has a direct impact on the outcome of an event, but there is also secondary information that is of no value to the bettor.
- There is no single market that will pass with 100% probability. Your task is not to find a sure thing, but to calculate the correct event probability and compare it to the bookmakers’ odds.
- Any statement is worth questioning. Flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads does not mean that the odds of getting tails next time will be better. This same situation can be transposed to betting.
How much time is it right to spend on betting?
A lot of newbies are wondering — how much time should be spent on analyzing each bet? It is a mammoth task to get an unambiguous answer to this question, as much depends on how quickly a player can assimilate new information and what useful services he will use. One player will give a correct prediction for the game after 5 hours of analysis, while another will achieve the same result after 2 hours.
It should not be forgotten that bettors also spend a huge part of their time searching for the right event in the line, and only then starts analyzing the game. If you are offered to bet on a strategy that takes 5 minutes to find the necessary market and 15 minutes to analyze it, it is as clear as a day that this strategy will give a negative result down the road.
Even professional bettors who have powerful line analysis tools at their fingertips can make only 2-3 spot bets a day. Competent analysis of each game will take at least 2-3 hours. After 6-8 hours spent analyzing, you will no longer be able to make a sober assessment of the subsequent market. After fruitful work the brain needs rest, otherwise, the performance of the analysis will fall sharply with each new working hour.
At first glance, the game of betting seems to be something interesting and exciting. It is, as long as the bettor bets for the sake of excitement, but usually such a game is not profitable. As soon as the bettor “kills” the gambler in himself and starts to make cold-blooded bets, finding and analyzing markets becomes a chore.
If you plan to win consistently on betting, plan to spend at least 3-5 hours a day for analysis and betwinner downlead. Betting does not have to be done daily, but you need to improve and develop in this direction constantly. So the necessary market for a bet can be found even if you look through the news feed of a sports website, and then it’s up to analytics.
Conclusion
You should understand that in any sport, you can only calculate the probabilities of the outcome, but the game will end randomly. Your personal choice somewhat does not increase the chances of winning a bet if it is made without an in-depth analysis of the market.
FAQ
Is the “illusion of control” a real-life aspect to rely on?
The “illusion of control” has been around since the beginning of time. It’s well-known to a lot of bettors around the world. The situation is familiar when a bettor thinks that he has a grasp of the case and everything solely depends on his decision and fate has nothing to do with it.
Is it difficult to deal with it?
It’s quite a problem to deal with, and more often than not, gamblers should kick the habit. False illusions can make people broke.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Super Falcons of Nigeria have been drawn in Group C with Egypt, Zambia and Malawi for the defence of their Women’s’ Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) title in March, which will be hosted again in Morocco.
Last year, the Nigerian team won the record 10th tournament after defeating the host nation, Morocco, 3-2 in a spectacular final after going down 2-0.
The 2026 edition will be played in Morocco from March 17-April 3, eight months after the last tournament.
The last edition slated for 2024 was postponed by a year for logistical reasons as the Confederation of African Football (CAF) could not get interested hosts.
The next edition which will be the 14th edition and Nigeria will be hoping to win the women’s tournament for the 11th time.
Nigeria’s dominance is only rivalled by Equatorial Guinea which won as hosts of the 2008 and 2012 editions. South Africa won the 2022 edition to become the third African nation to ever win the tournament.
The next edition carries added importance because it serves as qualifying for next year’s Women’s World Cup, with the top four finishers taking up Africa’s slots in the global tournament to be hosted by Brazil.
GROUPS
Group A (Rabat Moulay Hassan Stadium): Morocco, Algeria, Senegal, Kenya,
Group B (Rabat Al Madina Stadium): South Africa, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Tanzania
Group C (Casablanca): Nigeria, Zambia, Egypt, Malawi
Group D (Fes): Ghana, Cameroon, Mali, Cape Verde.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of BUA Group, Mr Abdul Samad Rabiu, has reaffirmed his commitment to reward the Super Eagles with the promised $500,000 despite losing the semi-final match against Morocco in the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) on Wednesday night.
The Nigerian senior national football team lost the tie against Morocco 4-2 on penalties after both sides failed to break the deadlock after 120 minutes.
In a post on his official Instagram on Thursday, the billionaire industrialist commended the football team for their determination and unity throughout the competition.
Mr Rabiu said the players displayed admirable grit and commitment on the field, adding that although the trophy eluded them, their performance inspired pride and admiration among Nigerians at home and abroad.
“To our brave Super Eagles, You fought with your hearts, gave your all, and showed true courage and determination on the pitch. Though it wasn’t meant to be this time, you have made every Nigerian proud.
“Sometimes, even our best efforts don’t bring the outcome we hope for, but the spirit, passion, and unity you displayed are what truly matter. You left everything on the field, and that is worthy of celebration.
“As a token of appreciation for your remarkable journey and effort, I am still going ahead to fulfill the pledge of $500,000. This is in recognition of your hard work, dedication, and the joy you have brought to our nation.
“Keep your heads high, Super Eagles – the experience, lessons, and spirit will fuel even greater success next time. Nigeria will always be proud of you, and we believe in your future victories!” the statement read.
Nigeria failed to advance to the final of the 2025 AFCON yesterday after losing to Morocco’s Atlas Lions in a tense penalty shootout, a result that sent the North African side through to the final.
Moroccan goalkeeper, Yacine Bounou saved kicks from both Samuel Chukwueze and Bruno Onyemaechi, allowing Youssef En-Nesyri to convert the winning kick and spark wild celebrations inside the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat.
Nigeria will play Egypt in the bronze medal match on Sunday, January 18 while Morocco will face 2021 winners, Senegal for the chance to win the trophy for the first time in 50 years.
Midweek football delivers decisive moments across three competitions as the Carabao Cup reaches the semi-final in England, Serie A’s title contenders play their games in hand, and the Africa Cup of Nations narrows down to its final two. Fans can follow every fixture live on SuperSport across DStv and GOtv.
Carabao Cup: Semi-Final Second Legs Decide Wembley Places
The Carabao Cup semi-finals conclude with two heavyweight fixtures as clubs push for a place in the final at Wembley.
On Tuesday at 9:00 p.m., Newcastle host Man City at St James’ Park. Newcastle enter the second leg as defending Carabao Cup champions and come into the tie in strong domestic form, having recorded three straight league wins and progressed in the FA Cup after a penalty shootout victory over Bournemouth.
City arrive after a heavy FA Cup win against Exeter City but are still searching for consistency in the league following a run of draws. Both sides have navigated the competition efficiently so far, setting up a finely balanced contest.
Wednesday’s second semi-final sees Chelsea host Arsenal at 9:00 p.m. Chelsea begin the second leg under new manager Liam Rosenior after a convincing FA Cup victory over Charlton, though league form has been less consistent following a recent defeat to Fulham.
Arsenal, meanwhile, arrive as Premier League leaders and remain active in all major competitions this season. Their FA Cup win over Portsmouth maintained momentum as they look to secure a return to Wembley.
Both Carabao Cup semi-final matches air live on SS Premier League (GOtv Ch. 65, DStv Ch. 203).
Serie A: Games in Hand Shape the Title Race
Serie A’s midweek programme features three fixtures involving clubs playing their game in hand, with implications at both ends of the table.
On Wednesday at 6:30 p.m., Napoli host Parma. Napoli were held to a draw by Inter Milan in their previous outing and sit fourth, level on points with Juventus. With other contenders also in action, a win could lift them further up the standings. Parma arrive after a narrow victory over Lecce and continue to look upward from mid-table.
Later on Wednesday at 8:45 p.m., leaders Inter Milan face Lecce at the San Siro. Inter saw their winning run halted by Napoli but remain three points clear at the top. Lecce arrive having suffered consecutive defeats and will be aiming to secure a positive result in a difficult away fixture.
Thursday’s action concludes at 8:45 p.m. as AC Milan travel to face Como. Milan sit second but have been held to back-to-back draws and will be seeking a return to winning form. Como, coached by Cesc Fàbregas, have impressed this season and sit sixth, boasting one of the league’s strongest defensive records.
All Serie A fixtures are broadcast live on SS Africa 2 (GOtv Ch. 64, DStv Ch. 208).
AFCON 2025: Semi-Finals Decide Finalists
The Africa Cup of Nations reaches its penultimate stage with two semi-final clashes scheduled for Wednesday.
Senegal face Egypt at 6:00 p.m. in Tangier in a renewal of a recent AFCON rivalry. Senegal, winners of the 2021 edition, have progressed with control and balance, while Egypt have relied on resilience and decisive moments in the knockout rounds. The matchup once again brings together key figures from both sides as a place in the final is at stake.
Later at 9:00 p.m., Nigeria meet hosts Morocco in Rabat. Nigeria advanced after a disciplined quarter-final performance, while Morocco continue to combine defensive organisation with efficiency in attack. With home support behind them, Morocco face a Nigerian side that has shown attacking consistency throughout the tournament.
Both AFCON semi-finals air live on SS AFCON (GOtv Ch. 59, DStv Ch. 202).
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