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AfCFTA Expected to Boost Dealmaking in Africa

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Negotiated Deals

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

There are strong indications that dealmaking activity in Africa will increase by the time the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement is deeply implemented.

The trade deal officially commenced on January 1, 2021, after it was moved from the former date of July 1, 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

At the moment, the agreement is struggling to begin to yield the expected results because many nations are still dealing with the global health crisis.

Last year, dealmaking activity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) dropped in the second half when compared to the second half of 2019.

According to Baker McKenzie’s analysis of Refinitiv data, M&A transactions in the region went down in H2 2020 by 4 per cent versus in H2 2019 with 329 deals in the period.

Also, the deal value fell by 17 per cent to $8.9 billion in the second half of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019 and for the full year 2020, transactions dropped by 8 per cent with 625 deals in 2020, and deal value dropped by 33 per cent, with deals valued at $17.4 billion in total for 2020.

In the report by Baker McKenzie, as Africa gears up for its post-pandemic recovery, it appears that the opportunities presented by AfCFTA, as well as foreign investment opportunities, due in part to new partnerships and trade relationships, could be a key factor in attracting much-needed investment to the region.

“While dealmaking has slowed across Africa, all is not lost and there are still plenty of opportunities to benefit from good deals on the continent,” the Head of Africa for Baker McKenzie, Mr Wildu du Plessis, noted.

“For the next while, we believe that deal activity across Africa, in general, will mostly be in the form of take-private transactions, distressed M&A opportunities, restructurings, disposals; and corporates looking for investment opportunities in offshore markets.

“The good news is that the AfCFTA agreement has done a great deal to bolster foreign investor interest in the region, and dealmakers are taking notice of the agreement’s first movers,” Mr du Plessis added.

The United Kingdom, for example, is already an important investor in SSA. According to Refinitiv data, the UK was the most active investor in the SSA region for the second straight year, with 29 deals announced in the second half of 2020.

There were also 29 deals from the UK for the full year 2020. When it comes to trade, recent research by Brookings showed the untapped export potential from African countries with regard to trade with the UK, with significant gaps in apparel, electronic equipment and cocoa products, for example.

Brookings pointed out that UK trade with Africa peaked in 2012 when it was valued at $51 billion, but by 2019 it had almost halved to $27 billion, representing only 2.4 per cent of total UK trade.

This shows the potential for increased trade between the UK and African nations, especially if more mutually beneficial economic partnership agreements are finalised, positioning the post-Brexit UK to take advantage of AfCFTA’s eventual continent-wide market of around 1.4 billion people.

Virusha Subban, Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, noted that intra-African trading started on 1 January 2021 for African countries that had ratified the AfCFTA agreement and submitted their tariff offers.

“Trading in products started at the beginning of the year for the African Union member states that had aligned their customs procedures and agreed on the rules of origin for 81 per cent of the tariff lines.

“All countries in Africa, except for Eritrea, have signed the agreement and 34 countries have ratified it so far, including most of Africa’s major economies (South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Ghana, for example).

“A total of 41 countries (including South Africa, Egypt and Mauritius) and customs unions (the East African Community, the Economic Community of West African States, the South African Customs Union and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community) submitted their tariff offers, and were ready to trade at the beginning 2021,” she noted.

Subban explained that the AU had called for other countries to ratify the agreement and submit their offers by the end of June 2021, although there had been some concern from poorer countries who relied on the income received from trading tariffs and were therefore hesitant to lower them.

However, efforts to protect the most vulnerable countries included tariff protections for domestically sensitive products.

A further boost to the success of the agreement, came in the form of an announcement in late January from the African Export-Import Bank, in which it noted it would fund a $1 billion adjustment facility to allow countries that had lowered their cross border tariffs to offset their losses. AfCFTA member countries are set to be able to draw from the fund by the end of 2021.

“Overall, AfCFTA has provided a strong impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs and trade logistics systems, as well as overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows.

“Both domestic and foreign trade are set to benefit from reforms to regulation and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business across the continent. Accessing the new facility on offer from the African Export-Import Bank will further encourage African member states to fully embrace the benefits of free trade,” said Subban.

According to Baker McKenzie’s recent research with Oxford Economics –  AfCFTA’s US$ 3 trillion Opportunity – there are now unprecedented opportunities for Africa, and its trade and investment partners, to reap economic benefits on the back of the possible improvements in transport infrastructure, reduction of red tape for cross-border dealings, renewed funding and improved liquidity. AfCFTA will provide the opportunity for African countries to diversify their economies, scale production capacity and widen the range of products made in Africa, in particular boosting the production of manufactured goods (and the potential for multinational companies to set up manufacturing plants in the continent).

“Closer integration of neighbouring economies is a potential avenue for creating scale and competitiveness through domestic market enlargement, thereby promoting development, and boosting foreign investment through greater efficiency. As such, the integrated free flow of trade brought about by AfCFTA is considered to be an essential element of Africa’s pandemic recovery,” Subban added.

Aduragbemi Omiyale is a journalist with Business Post Nigeria, who has passion for news writing. In her leisure time, she loves to read.

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United States Congress Pursuing AGOA Extension

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African Growth and Opportunity Act AGOA

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

After the expiration of bilateral agreement on trade, the US Congress as well as African leaders, highly recognizing its significance, has been pursuing the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The agreement, which allows duty-free access to American markets for African exporters, expired on September 30, 2025.

The US Congress is advancing a bill to revive and extend AGOA, but South Africa’s continued inclusion remains uncertain. The trade pact still has strong bipartisan support, with the House Ways and Means Committee approving it 37-3. However, US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, raised concerns about South Africa, citing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and said the administration could consider excluding the country.

This threat puts at risk the duty-free access that has significantly benefited South African automotive, agricultural, and wine exports. The debate highlights how trade policy is becoming entangled with broader diplomatic tensions, casting uncertainty over a key pillar of US-Africa economic relations.

Nevertheless, South Africa continues to lobby for inclusion. South Africa trade summary records show that the US goods and services trade with South Africa estimated at $26.2 billion in 2024. The US and South Africa signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as far back as in 2012.

The duty-free access for nearly 40 African countries has boosted development and fostered more equitable and sustainable growth in Africa. By design AGOA is a useful mechanism for improving accessibility to trade competitiveness, connectivity, and productivity. During these past 25 years, AGOA has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Key features and benefits of AGOA:

It’s worth reiterating here that during these past several years, AGOA has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. In this case, as AGOA is closely working with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat and with the African Union (AU), trade professionals could primarily leverage various economic sectors and unwaveringly act as bridges between the United States and Africa.

* Duty-free Access: AGOA allows eligible products from sub-Saharan African countries to enter the US market without paying tariffs.

* Promotion of Economic Growth: The program encourages economic growth by providing incentives for African countries to open their economies and build free markets.

* Encouraging Economic Reforms: AGOA encourages economic and political reforms in eligible countries, including the rule of law and market-oriented policies.

* Increased Trade and Investment: The program aims to strengthen trade and investment ties between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa.

With the changing times, Africa is also building its muscles towards a new direction since the introduction of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was officially launched in July 2019.

In practical terms, trading under the AfCFTA commenced in January 2021. And the United States has prioritized the AfCFTA as one mechanism through which to strengthen its long-term relations with the continent. In the context of the crucial geopolitical changes, African leaders, corporate executives, and the entire business community are optimistic over the extension of AGOA, for mutually beneficial trade partnerships with the United States.

Worthy to say that AGOA, to a considerable degree, as a significant trade policy has played a crucial role in promoting economic growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Accelerating Intra-Africa Trade and Sustainable Development

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Intra-Africa Trade

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Africa stands at the cusp of a transformative digital revolution. With the expansion of mobile connectivity, internet penetration, digital platforms, and financial technology, the continent’s digital economy is poised to become a significant driver of sustainable development, intra-Africa trade, job creation, and economic inclusion.

The African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly Aspiration 1 (a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development), highlights the importance of leveraging technology and innovation. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has opened a new chapter in market integration, creating opportunities to unlock the full potential of the digital economy across all sectors.

Despite remarkable progress, challenges persist. These include limited digital infrastructure, disparities in digital literacy, fragmented regulatory frameworks, inadequate access to financing for tech-based enterprises, and gender gaps in digital participation. Moreover, Africa must assert its digital sovereignty, build local data ecosystems, and secure cyber-infrastructure to thrive in a rapidly changing global digital landscape.

Against this backdrop, the 16th African Union Private Sector Forum provides a timely platform to explore and shape actionable strategies for harnessing Africa’s digital economy to accelerate intra-Africa trade and sustainable development.

The 16th High-Level AU Private Sector forum is set to take place in Djibouti, from the 14 to 16 December 2025, under the theme “Harnessing Africa’s Digital Economy and Innovation for Accelerating Intra-Africa Trade and Sustainable Development”

The three-day Forum will feature high-level plenaries, expert panels, breakout sessions, and networking opportunities. Each day will spotlight a core pillar of Africa’s digital transformation journey.

Day 1: Digital Economy and Trade Integration in Africa

Focus: Leveraging digital platforms and technologies to enhance trade integration and competitiveness under AfCFTA.

Day 2: Innovation, Fintech, and the Future of African Economies

Focus: Driving economic inclusion through fintech, innovation ecosystems, and youth entrepreneurship.

Day 3: Building Policy, Regulatory Frameworks, and Partnerships for Digital Growth

Focus: Creating an enabling environment for digital innovation and infrastructure through effective policy, governance, and partnerships.

To foster strategic dialogue and action-oriented collaboration among key stakeholders in Africa’s digital ecosystem, with the goal of leveraging digital economy and innovation to boost intra-Africa trade, accelerate economic transformation, and support inclusive, sustainable development.

* Promote Digital Trade: Identify mechanisms and policy actions to enable seamless cross-border digital commerce and integration under AfCFTA.

* Foster Innovation and Fintech: Advance inclusive fintech ecosystems and support innovation-driven entrepreneurship, especially among youth and women.

* Policy and Regulatory Harmonization: Build consensus on regional and continental digital regulatory frameworks to foster trust, security, and interoperability.

* Encourage Investment and Public-Private Partnerships: Strengthen collaboration between governments, private sector, and development partners to invest in digital infrastructure, R&D, and skills development.

* Advance Digital Inclusion and Sustainability: Ensure that digital transformation contributes to environmental sustainability and the empowerment of marginalized communities.

The AU Private Sector Forum has held several forums, with key recommendations. These recommendations provide valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the African private sector and offer guidance for policymakers on how to support its growth and development.

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World

Russia’s Lukoil Losses Strategic Influence Across Africa

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Russias Lukoil

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Lukoil, Russia’s energy giant, has seriously lost its grounds across Africa, due to United States sanctions. Sanctions have complicated the company’s potential continuity in operating its largest oil field projects, grappling its investment particularly in Republic of Ghana, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Reports indicated the sanctions are further dismantling most of Lukoil’s operations, causing significant staff layoffs in its offices worldwide. For instance, Lukoil’s significant upstream operations in the Middle East include a 75% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield and a 60% stake in Iraq’s Block 10 development. In Egypt, the company holds stakes in various oilfields alongside local partners.

Lukoil has until December 13, 2025, to negotiate the sale of most of its international assets, including those in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It has already terminated several important agreements that were signed with international partners due to difficulties in circumventing the sanctions.

Reports said calculated efforts to diversify exploration business relations is turning extremely complex, and current at the cross-roads, Lukoil will have to ultimately give up existing contracts and agreements it had signed with external countries.

Lukoil’s website reports also pointed to reasons for abandoning oil and gas exploration and drilling project that it began in Sierra Leone.  According to those reports, Lukoil could withdraw from almost all of the projects in West Africa.

In addition to geopolitical sanctions, technical and geographical hitches, Lukoil noted on its website, an additional obstacles that “the African leadership and government policies always pose serious problems to operations in the region.” Similarly, the Kremlin-controlled Rosneft abandoned its interest in the southern Africa oil pipeline construction, negatively impacted on Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

United States sanctions has hit Lukoil, one of the Russia’s biggest oil companies, like many other Russian companies, that has had a long history shuttling forth and back with declaration of business intentions or mere interests in tapping into oil and gas resources in Africa.

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