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AfCFTA Will Double Intra-Africa Trade Flows—Anatogu

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Intra-Africa Trade Flows

By Adedapo Adesanya

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will help to deepen economic integration in the continent, says the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Sector Matters and Secretary of the National Action Committee on AfCFTA, Mr Francis Anatogu, as part of a continued effort to drive implementation.

Mr Anatogu also said that AfCFTA’s goals will also improve and expand intra-Africa trade, enable rule-based engagement for facilitating dispute resolution and addressing injurious trade practices.

He made this known on Monday at a leadership stakeholders’ consultation on the theme ‘Defining the Trade in Service Strategy for AfCFTA’.

Mr Anatogu said the agreement will also serve as the foundation for the establishment of a continental Customs Union.

He expressed optimism that if effectively implemented, the AfCFTA will result in the elimination of tariffs on 90 per cent of tariff lines, adding that product-specific rules of origin will help to grow African content.

Mr Anatogu also stated that the pact would assist in the harmonisation of policies, regulations and standards, as well as lead to customs co-operation and mutual administrative assistance.

The AfCFTA, according to him will double intra-Africa trade flows, currently at 15 per cent as well as double Africa’s share of world trade from three per cent to six per cent over the next 10 years.

In a similar vein, Professor John Aremu said at the forum that while it is right for Nigeria to ratify the agreement, the constitution provides that such treaties entered into can only become beneficial to the nation if it has a place inside the Nigerian law to guarantee enforceability.

Mr Aremu, who is a Professor of International Economic Relations at Covenant University, urged stakeholders to facilitate the domestication of AfCFTA as enshrined in the constitution, in order to ensure utmost benefits accrues to Nigeria.

The academic who doubles as a consultant of ECOWAS Common Investment Market stated this during his presentation titled “Conceptual Issues in Africa Integration Emergence of AfCFTA, and Its Protocol”.

He said, “If AfCFTA cannot be domesticated into the national law, it cannot be deployed in defence of cases involving their violations before courts of law in the country, neither can they be used for the advocacy of rights within the country.

“Further to this, violators of AfCFTA provisions, whether they be institutions, companies or individuals cannot be held accountable, since the AfCFTA treaty has not been domesticated in the country”.

This he said can be supported by section 12(1) of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, about Implementation of treaties which states that “no treaty between the federation and another country shall have the force of the law except to the extent to which any such treaty has been enacted into law by the National Assembly”.

He further said failure or lateness for Nigeria to domesticate AfCFTA will cause unreasonable hardship on other AU member states that intend to have commercial relationships with the country under the continental economic integration.

This he said will further discourage reading and affect the inflow of investments into Nigeria and also stunt the growth of the law in the country.

He also advocated the need for an upgrade of the overall quality of the nation’s physical infrastructure like roads, rail, port facilities, telecommunications, which are prerequisites to profitable intra-African trade

The professor also called for the use of an online information portal, single windows, digital documentation, Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), electronic Certificates and signatures and automated processing of trade declaration which would help simplify, streamline and expedite trade-related procedures at the borders.

For Nigeria to fully benefit from AfCFTA, Professor Aremu said Nigeria must reduce the infrastructural deficit by building on ongoing efforts and also reduce other critical NBTs such as customs and other administrative requirements that directly affect the capacity of economies to trade merchandise within and outside their borders.

Other suggestions from Professor Aremu include improving trade facilitation commitments of the country as regards categories A, B, and C with WTO/TFA as a priority area for reforms while also ensuring a strong institutional and governance framework in the implementation of AfCFTA.

On commencement of AfCFTA, the Don said beyond boosting Intra-Africa trade, the larger market offered by AfCFTA is expected to trigger investment, leading to high productivity and addition to the continent’s value chain, providing more and better jobs and further enlarging the continental market.

Additionally, he said despite the high level of political momentum around AfCFTA, the ultimate success depends on African states not merely ratifying the treaty but repositioning themselves towards complying with demands in the AfCFTA.

He said while other continents have increased intra- trade among them, Africa still lags behind in trading within itself.

“Intra-Africa trade is about 12 per cent, compared to North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA) of 40 per cent and 63 per cent between economies of Western Europe and 30 per cent for ASEAN.

“There can never be any good reason why it is easier for us to trade with Asia, Europe and America, rather than with fellow Africans” Professor Aremu quoted former Ghanaian President, John Mahama as saying.

The academic said African countries can improve intra-trade among themselves by adopting trade diversion, which entails abandoning the lowest cost producer like China and importing the same product from a member of the union.

Mr Aremu also said the policy of trade creation where the country with comparative advantage is allowed to produce a particular product while others patronize it can be employed.

“By bringing down the barriers to trade between Nigeria and Egypt, the imports from Egypt will become cheaper than the ones produced by companies within Nigeria and those imported from China, since import duties remain on China, thereby creating more trade from Egypt,” he narrated.

Mr Aremu lamented over Africa’s contribution to global trade volume and blamed the lack of proper renegotiation of global agreements to integrate the continent and increase her participation in the global trade.

According to him, “Africa accounts for about 3 per cent of the global trade despite Doha Development Agenda (DDA) of the WTO, AGOA of USA and ECAs of EU; all of which have not been negotiated to enable Africa’s successful integration into the global economy despite promises”.

Speaking further on the African situation, he said: “Africa accounts for just 2.4 per cent of global GDP; has approximately 30 per cent of the earth’s remaining mineral resources; largest reserve of precious metals, over 40 per cent of gold reserves, over 60 per cent of cobalt and 90 per cent of platinum reserves, yet Africa is the world’s poorest and underdeveloped”.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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TikTok Signs Deal to Avoid US Ban

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Forex Advice on TikTok

By Adedapo Adesanya

Social media platform, TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance has signed binding agreements with United States and global investors to operate its business in America.

Half of the joint venture will be owned by a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake and the Emirati investment firm MGX, according to a memo sent by chief executive, Mr Shou Zi Chew.

The deal, which is set to close on January 22, 2026 would end years of efforts by the US government to force ByteDance to sell its US operations over national security concerns.

It is in line with a deal unveiled in September, when US President Donald Trump delayed the enforcement of a law that would ban the app unless it was sold.

In the memo, TikTok said the deal will enable “over 170 million Americans to continue discovering a world of endless possibilities as part of a vital global community”.

Under the agreement, ByteDance will retain 19.9 per cent of the business, while Oracle, Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX will hold 15 per cent each.

Another 30.1 per cent will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors, according to the memo.

The White House previously said that Oracle, which was co-founded by President Trump’s supporter Larry Ellison, will license TikTok’s recommendation algorithm as part of the deal.

The deal comes after a series of delays.

Business Post reported in April 2024 that the administration of President Joe Biden passed a law to ban the app over national security concerns, unless it was sold.

The law was set to go into effect on January 20, 2025 but was pushed back multiple times by President Trump, while his administration worked out a deal to transfer ownership.

President Trump said in September that he had spoken on the phone to China’s President Xi Jinping, who he said had given the deal the go ahead.

The platform’s future remained unclear after the leaders met face to face in October.

The app’s fate was clouded by ongoing tensions between the two nations on trade and other matters.

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United States, Russia Resolving Trade Issues, Seeking New Business Opportunities

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Kirill Dmitriev, CEO (RDIF) and Russian Presidents Special Envoy to United States

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Despite the complexities posed by Russia-Ukraine crisis, United States has been taking conscious steps to improve commercial relations with Russia. Unsurprisingly, Russia, on the other hand, is also moving to restore and normalise its diplomacy, negotiating for direct connections of air-routes and passionate permission to return its diplomats back to Washington and New York.

In the latest developments, Kirill Dmitriev, Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), has been appointed as Russian President’s Special Envoy to United States. This marked an important milestone towards raising bilateral investment and economic cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked him to exclusively promote business dialogue between the two countries, and further to negotiate for the return of U.S. business enterprises. According to authentic reports, United States businesses lost $300+ bn during this Russia-Ukraine crisis, while Russia’s estimated 1,500 diplomats were asked to return to Moscow.

Strategically in late November 2025, the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham) has awarded Kirill Dmitriev, praised him for calculated efforts in promoting positive dialogue between the United States and Russia within the framework decreed by President Vladimir Putin. Chief Executive Officer of Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev is the Special Representative of the Russian President for Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries. Since his appointment, his primary focus has been on United States.

“Received an American Chamber of Commerce award ‘For leadership in fostering the US-Russia dialogue,’” Dmitriev wrote on his X page, in late November, 2025. According to Dmitriev, more than 150 US companies are currently operating in Russia, with more than 70% of them being present on the Russian market for over 25 years.

In addition, Chamber President Sergey Katyrin and American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham) President Robert Agee have also been discussing alternatives pathways to raise bilateral business cooperation. Both have held series of meetings throughout this year, indicating the the importance of sustaining relations as previously. Expectedly, the Roscongress Foundation has been offered its platforms during St. Petersburg International Economic (SPIEF) for the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham).

On December 9, Sergey Katyrin and Robert Agee noted that, despite existing problems and non-economic obstacles, the business communities of Russia and the United States proceed from the necessity of maintaining professional dialogue. Despite the worsening geopolitical conditions, Sergey Katyrin and Robert Agee noted the importance of preserving stable channels of trade and pragmatic prospects for economic cooperation. These will further serve as a stabilizing factor and an instrument for building mutual trust at the level of business circles, industry associations, and the expert community.

The American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) will be working in the system of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) in the Russian Federation, which currently comprises 57,000 legal entities, 130 regional chambers and a combined network of representative offices covering more than 350 points of presence.

According to reports obtained by this article author from the AmCham, promising sectors for Russian-American economic cooperation include healthcare and the medical industry, civil aviation, communications/telecom, natural resource extraction, and energy/energy equipment. The United States and Russia have, more or less, agreed to continue coordinating their work to facilitate the formation of a more favorable environment for Russian and American businesses, reduce risks, and strengthen business ties. Following the American-Russian Dialogue, a joint statement and working documents were adopted.

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Reviewing the Dynamics of Indian–Russian Business Partnership

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Sammy Kotwani Indian Business Association Indian–Russian Business Partnership

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The Executive President of the Indian Business Alliance (IBA), Sammy Manoj Kotwani, discusses the landmark moment in deepening Russian-Indian collaboration. Kotwani explains the groundbreaking insights into President Vladimir Putin’s working visit to India, the emerging opportunities and pathways for future cooperation, especially for the two-sided economic collaboration. Follow Sammy Manoj Kotwani’s discussions here:

Interpretation of the latest development in Russian-Indian relations

From my viewpoint in Moscow, this visit has effectively opened a new operational chapter in what has always been described as a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.” It did not just reaffirm political goodwill; it translated that goodwill into a structured economic roadmap through Programme 2030, a clear target to take bilateral trade to around USD 100 billion by 2030, and concrete sectoral priorities: energy, nuclear cooperation, critical minerals, manufacturing, connectivity, fertilizers, and labour mobility.

On the ground, the business community reads this summit as a strong signal that India and Russia are doubling down on strategic autonomy in a multipolar world order. Both sides are trying to de-risk their supply chains and payment systems from over-dependence on any single centre of power. This is visible in the focus on national currencies, alternative payment mechanisms, and efforts to stabilise Rupee–Ruble trade, alongside discussions on a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union and the reinforcement of corridors like the INSTC and the Chennai–Vladivostok route.

In short, my interpretation is that this summit has moved the relationship from “politically excellent but structurally imbalanced” towards a more diversified, long-term economic framework in which companies are expected to co-produce, co-innovate, and invest, not just trade opportunistically.

Significance of the visit for Indian business in Russia and for the Indian Business Alliance (IBA)

For Indian business operating in the Russian Federation, the visit has three immediate effects: confidence, clarity, and continuity. Confidence, because Indian entrepreneurs now see that despite external pressure, New Delhi and Moscow have explicitly committed to deepening economic engagement—especially in energy, fertilizers, defence co-production, nuclear, and critical minerals—rather than quietly scaling it back.

Clarity, because the summit outcomes spell out where the real opportunities lie:

Energy & Petrochemicals: Long-term crude and LNG supply, but also downstream opportunities in refining, petrochemicals, and logistics, where Indian EPC and service companies can participate.

Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices: Russia’s import substitution drive makes high-quality Indian generics, formulations, and even localized manufacturing extremely relevant.

IT, Digital & AI: There is growing appetite in Russia for Indian IT services, cybersecurity, and digital solutions that are not dependent on Western tech stacks.

Fertilizers, Agro & Food Processing: New joint ventures in fertilizers and agriculture supply chains were explicitly flagged during and around the summit, which is important for both food security and farm incomes.

Continuity, because the Programme 2030 framework and the expected EAEU FTA give businesses a medium-term policy horizon. Tariff reductions, improved market access and predictable regulation are precisely what Indian SMEs and mid-sized companies need to justify long-term investments in Russia.

For the Indian Business Alliance (IBA), this inevitably means more work and more responsibility. We already see increased incoming requests from Indian firms—from large listed companies to first-time exporters—asking very practical questions: Which Russian region should we enter? How do we navigate compliance under the sanctions environment? Which banks are still handling Rupee–Ruble or third-currency settlements? How can we structure joint ventures to align with Russia’s import substitution goals while protecting IP and governance standards?

IBA’s role, therefore, becomes that of economic diplomacy in action: translating high-level summit language into actual B2B meetings, sectoral delegations, regional partnerships, and deal-making platforms such as the India–Russia Business Dialogue in Moscow. This visit will undoubtedly stimulate and intensify IBA’s work as a bridge between the two ecosystems.

India’s current economic presence in the Russian Federation

If we look beyond the headline trade figures, India’s economic presence in Russia today is significant, but not yet commensurate with its potential. Bilateral trade has grown sharply since 2022, largely on the back of discounted Russian oil and coal, making India one of Russia’s top energy customers.  However, the structure is still heavily skewed: Russian exports to India dominate, while Indian exports and investments in Russia remain relatively modest and under-diversified.

On the ground in Moscow and across the regions, we see several strong Indian footholds:

Pharmaceuticals: Indian pharma is well-established, respected for its affordability and quality, and poised to deepen localization in line with Russian import substitution policy.

Tea, Coffee, Spices & Food: Traditional segments with deep historical roots, now expanding into ready-to-eat, wellness, and ethnic food categories.

IT & Services: Still under-represented, but with growing interest as Russian entities look for non-Western software, integration, and outsourcing partners.

Diamonds, Textiles, Apparel, and Light Engineering: Present but fragmented, with enormous room to scale, especially if logistics and payment challenges are addressed.

Where India is still behind is on-the-ground investment and manufacturing presence compared to countries like China. Russian policymakers today are clearly favouring investors who help them achieve technological sovereignty and local value addition. For serious Indian companies willing to commit capital, adapt to Russian standards, and accept the complexities of the current environment, this is a period of unusual opportunity. For purely transactional players looking for quick arbitrage, it is becoming progressively harder.

So, I would characterise India’s economic presence as: strategically important, quickly growing in value, but still under-leveraged in terms of depth, diversification, and localization.

Geopolitical pressure from Washington and future predictions

Pressure from Washington—through sanctions, secondary sanctions risk, financial restrictions, and now even tariff measures linked to India’s energy purchases from Russia—is undoubtedly a real and continuing challenge.  It affects everything from shipping insurance and dollar transactions to technology transfers and the risk appetite of global banks. In practical terms, it can complicate even a simple India–Russia trade deal if it touches a sanctioned bank, vessel, or technology.

However, my own assessment, based on 35 years of living and working in Russia, is that this pressure will not fundamentally derail India–Russia friendship, but it will reshape how the relationship functions. India’s foreign policy is anchored in strategic autonomy; it seeks strong ties with the United States and Europe, but not at the cost of abandoning a time-tested partner like Russia. Russia, for its part, sees India as a crucial Asian pole in an emerging multipolar world order and as a long-term market, technology partner, and political counterpart in forums like BRICS, SCO, and the G20.

Looking ahead, I see a few clear trends:

Normalization of alternative payment and logistics systems

We will see more institutionalised use of national currencies, alternative messaging systems, regional banks outside the direct sanctions line, and maybe even digital currencies for specific corridors. Rupee–Ruble trade mechanisms that are today seen as “workarounds” will gradually become part of the normal infrastructure of bilateral commerce.

Shift from pure trade to co-production and joint innovation

To reduce vulnerability to sanctions, both sides will push for manufacturing in India and Russia rather than simple exports: defence co-development, localized pharma and medical devices, high-tech and AI collaborations, and joint ventures in critical minerals and clean energy.

Greater role for regions and business associations

Regional governments in Russia (Far East, Arctic regions, industrial hubs) and Indian states will increasingly drive project-level cooperation, supported by platforms like IBA. This “bottom-up” economic diplomacy will make the relationship more resilient than if it relied only on central governments.

Managed balancing by India

India will continue to deepen technology and investment ties with the West while maintaining energy, defence and strategic cooperation with Russia. The challenge will be to manage U.S. and EU expectations without compromising its core national interests. My prediction is that India will stay firm on this course of balanced engagement, even if it means occasional friction with Washington.

In essence, external pressure may complicate the methods of Indo-Russian cooperation, but it is unlikely to overturn the foundations of trust, mutual interest, and long-term complementarity that have been built over decades.

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