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AfCFTA Will Double Intra-Africa Trade Flows—Anatogu

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Intra-Africa Trade Flows

By Adedapo Adesanya

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will help to deepen economic integration in the continent, says the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Sector Matters and Secretary of the National Action Committee on AfCFTA, Mr Francis Anatogu, as part of a continued effort to drive implementation.

Mr Anatogu also said that AfCFTA’s goals will also improve and expand intra-Africa trade, enable rule-based engagement for facilitating dispute resolution and addressing injurious trade practices.

He made this known on Monday at a leadership stakeholders’ consultation on the theme ‘Defining the Trade in Service Strategy for AfCFTA’.

Mr Anatogu said the agreement will also serve as the foundation for the establishment of a continental Customs Union.

He expressed optimism that if effectively implemented, the AfCFTA will result in the elimination of tariffs on 90 per cent of tariff lines, adding that product-specific rules of origin will help to grow African content.

Mr Anatogu also stated that the pact would assist in the harmonisation of policies, regulations and standards, as well as lead to customs co-operation and mutual administrative assistance.

The AfCFTA, according to him will double intra-Africa trade flows, currently at 15 per cent as well as double Africa’s share of world trade from three per cent to six per cent over the next 10 years.

In a similar vein, Professor John Aremu said at the forum that while it is right for Nigeria to ratify the agreement, the constitution provides that such treaties entered into can only become beneficial to the nation if it has a place inside the Nigerian law to guarantee enforceability.

Mr Aremu, who is a Professor of International Economic Relations at Covenant University, urged stakeholders to facilitate the domestication of AfCFTA as enshrined in the constitution, in order to ensure utmost benefits accrues to Nigeria.

The academic who doubles as a consultant of ECOWAS Common Investment Market stated this during his presentation titled “Conceptual Issues in Africa Integration Emergence of AfCFTA, and Its Protocol”.

He said, “If AfCFTA cannot be domesticated into the national law, it cannot be deployed in defence of cases involving their violations before courts of law in the country, neither can they be used for the advocacy of rights within the country.

“Further to this, violators of AfCFTA provisions, whether they be institutions, companies or individuals cannot be held accountable, since the AfCFTA treaty has not been domesticated in the country”.

This he said can be supported by section 12(1) of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, about Implementation of treaties which states that “no treaty between the federation and another country shall have the force of the law except to the extent to which any such treaty has been enacted into law by the National Assembly”.

He further said failure or lateness for Nigeria to domesticate AfCFTA will cause unreasonable hardship on other AU member states that intend to have commercial relationships with the country under the continental economic integration.

This he said will further discourage reading and affect the inflow of investments into Nigeria and also stunt the growth of the law in the country.

He also advocated the need for an upgrade of the overall quality of the nation’s physical infrastructure like roads, rail, port facilities, telecommunications, which are prerequisites to profitable intra-African trade

The professor also called for the use of an online information portal, single windows, digital documentation, Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), electronic Certificates and signatures and automated processing of trade declaration which would help simplify, streamline and expedite trade-related procedures at the borders.

For Nigeria to fully benefit from AfCFTA, Professor Aremu said Nigeria must reduce the infrastructural deficit by building on ongoing efforts and also reduce other critical NBTs such as customs and other administrative requirements that directly affect the capacity of economies to trade merchandise within and outside their borders.

Other suggestions from Professor Aremu include improving trade facilitation commitments of the country as regards categories A, B, and C with WTO/TFA as a priority area for reforms while also ensuring a strong institutional and governance framework in the implementation of AfCFTA.

On commencement of AfCFTA, the Don said beyond boosting Intra-Africa trade, the larger market offered by AfCFTA is expected to trigger investment, leading to high productivity and addition to the continent’s value chain, providing more and better jobs and further enlarging the continental market.

Additionally, he said despite the high level of political momentum around AfCFTA, the ultimate success depends on African states not merely ratifying the treaty but repositioning themselves towards complying with demands in the AfCFTA.

He said while other continents have increased intra- trade among them, Africa still lags behind in trading within itself.

“Intra-Africa trade is about 12 per cent, compared to North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA) of 40 per cent and 63 per cent between economies of Western Europe and 30 per cent for ASEAN.

“There can never be any good reason why it is easier for us to trade with Asia, Europe and America, rather than with fellow Africans” Professor Aremu quoted former Ghanaian President, John Mahama as saying.

The academic said African countries can improve intra-trade among themselves by adopting trade diversion, which entails abandoning the lowest cost producer like China and importing the same product from a member of the union.

Mr Aremu also said the policy of trade creation where the country with comparative advantage is allowed to produce a particular product while others patronize it can be employed.

“By bringing down the barriers to trade between Nigeria and Egypt, the imports from Egypt will become cheaper than the ones produced by companies within Nigeria and those imported from China, since import duties remain on China, thereby creating more trade from Egypt,” he narrated.

Mr Aremu lamented over Africa’s contribution to global trade volume and blamed the lack of proper renegotiation of global agreements to integrate the continent and increase her participation in the global trade.

According to him, “Africa accounts for about 3 per cent of the global trade despite Doha Development Agenda (DDA) of the WTO, AGOA of USA and ECAs of EU; all of which have not been negotiated to enable Africa’s successful integration into the global economy despite promises”.

Speaking further on the African situation, he said: “Africa accounts for just 2.4 per cent of global GDP; has approximately 30 per cent of the earth’s remaining mineral resources; largest reserve of precious metals, over 40 per cent of gold reserves, over 60 per cent of cobalt and 90 per cent of platinum reserves, yet Africa is the world’s poorest and underdeveloped”.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Russian-Nigerian Economic Diplomacy: Ajeokuta Symbolises Russia’s Remarkable Achievement in Nigeria

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Ajaokuta Steel Plant, Nigeria

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Over the past two decades, Russia’s economic influence in Africa—and specifically in Nigeria—has been limited, largely due to a lack of structured financial support from Russian policy banks and state-backed investment mechanisms. While Russian companies have demonstrated readiness to invest and compete with global players, they consistently cite insufficient government financial guarantees as a key constraint.

Unlike China, India, Japan, and the United States—which have provided billions in concessionary loans and credit lines to support African infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and SMEs—Russia has struggled to translate diplomatic goodwill into substantial economic projects. For example, Nigeria’s trade with Russia accounts for barely 1% of total trade volume, while China and the U.S. dominate at over 15% and 10% respectively in the last decade. This disparity highlights the challenges Russia faces in converting agreements into actionable investment.

Lessons from Nigeria’s Past

The limited impact of Russian economic diplomacy echoes Nigeria’s own history of unfulfilled agreements during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration. Over the past 20 years, ambitious energy, transport, and industrial initiatives signed with foreign partners—including Russia—often stalled or produced minimal results. In many cases, projects were approved in principle, but funding shortfalls, bureaucratic hurdles, and weak follow-through left them unimplemented. Nothing monumental emerged from these agreements, underscoring the importance of financial backing and sustained commitment.

China as a Model

Policy experts point to China’s systematic approach to African investments as a blueprint for Russia. Chinese state policy banks underwrite projects, de-risk investments, and provide finance often secured by African sovereign guarantees. This approach has enabled Chinese companies to execute large-scale infrastructure efficiently, expanding their presence across sectors while simultaneously investing in human capital.

Egyptian Professor Mohamed Chtatou at the International University of Rabat and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, argues: “Russia could replicate such mechanisms to ensure companies operate with financial backing and risk mitigation, rather than relying solely on bilateral agreements or political connections.”

Russia’s Current Footprint in Africa

Russia’s economic engagement in Africa is heavily tied to natural resources and military equipment. In Zimbabwe, platinum rights and diamond projects were exchanged for fuel or fighter jets. Nearly half of Russian arms exports to Africa are concentrated in countries like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Large-scale initiatives, such as the planned $10 billion nuclear plant in Zambia, have stalled due to a lack of Russian financial commitment, despite completed feasibility studies. Similar delays have affected nuclear projects in South Africa, Rwanda, and Egypt.

Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko and Senator Igor Morozov have emphasized parliamentary diplomacy and the creation of new financial instruments, such as investment funds under the Russian Export Center, to provide structured support for businesses and enhance trade cooperation. These measures are designed to address historical gaps in financing and ensure that agreements lead to tangible outcomes.

Opportunities and Challenges

Analysts highlight a fundamental challenge: Russia’s limited incentives in Africa. While China invests to secure resources and export markets, Russia lacks comparable commercial drivers. Russian companies possess technological and industrial capabilities, but without sufficient financial support, large-scale projects remain aspirational rather than executable.

The historic Russia-Africa Summits in Sochi and in St. Petersburg explicitly indicate a renewed push to deepen engagement, particularly in the economic sectors. President Vladimir Putin has set a goal to raise Russia-Africa trade from $20 billion to $40 billion over the next few years. However, compared to Asian, European, and American investors, Russia still lags significantly. UNCTAD data shows that the top investors in Africa are the Netherlands, France, the UK, the United States, and China—countries that combine capital support with strategic deployment.

In Nigeria, agreements with Russian firms over energy and industrial projects have yielded little measurable progress. Over 20 years, major deals signed during Obasanjo’s administration and renewed under subsequent governments often stalled at the financing stage. The lesson is clear: political agreements alone are insufficient without structured investment and follow-through.

Strategic Recommendations

For Russia to expand its economic influence in Africa, analysts recommend:

  1. Structured financial support: Establishing state-backed credit lines, policy bank guarantees, and investment funds to reduce project risks.
  2. Incentive realignment: Identifying sectors where Russian expertise aligns with African needs, including energy, industrial technology, and infrastructure.
  3. Sustained implementation: Turning signed agreements into tangible projects with clear timelines and milestones, avoiding the pitfalls of unfulfilled past agreements.

With proper financial backing, Russia can leverage its technological capabilities to diversify beyond arms sales and resource-linked deals, enhancing trade, industrial, and technological cooperation across Africa.

Conclusion

Russia’s Africa strategy remains a work in progress. Nigeria’s experience with decades of agreements that failed to materialize underscores the importance of structured financial commitments and persistent follow-through. Without these, Russia risks remaining a peripheral player (virtual investor) while Arab States such as UAE, China, the United States, and other global powers consolidate their presence.

The potential is evident: Africa is a fast-growing market with vast natural resources, infrastructure needs, and a young, ambitious population. Russia’s challenge—and opportunity—is to match diplomatic efforts with financial strategy, turning political ties into lasting economic influence.

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Afreximbank Warns African Governments On Deep Split in Global Commodities

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Commodities Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has urged African governments to lean into structural tailwinds, warning that the global commodity landscape has entered a new phase of deepening split.

In its November 2025 commodity bulletin, the bank noted that markets are no longer moving in unison; instead, some are powered by structural demand while others are weakening under oversupply, shifting consumption patterns and weather-related dynamics.

As a result of this bifurcation, the Cairo-based lender tasked policymakers on the continent to manage supply-chain vulnerabilities and diversify beyond the commodity-export model.

The report highlights that commodities linked to energy transition, infrastructure development and geopolitical realignments are gaining momentum.

For instance, natural gas has risen sharply from 2024 levels, supported by colder-season heating needs, export disruptions around the Red Sea and tightening global supply. Lithium continues to surge on strong demand from electric-vehicle and battery-storage sectors, with growth projections of up to 45 per cent in 2026. Aluminium is approaching multi-year highs amid strong construction and automotive activity and smelter-level power constraints, while soybeans are benefiting from sustained Chinese purchases and adverse weather concerns in South America.

Even crude oil, which accounts for Nigeria’s highest foreign exchange earnings, though still lower year-on-year, is stabilising around $60 per barrel as geopolitical supply risks, including drone attacks on Russian facilities, offset muted global demand.

In contrast, several commodities that recently experienced strong rallies are now softening.

The bank noted that cocoa prices are retreating from record highs as West African crop prospects improve and inventories recover. Palm oil markets face oversupply in Southeast Asia and subdued demand from India and China, pushing stocks to multi-year highs. Sugar is weakening under expectations of a nearly two-million-tonne global surplus for the 2025/26 season, while platinum and silver are seeing headwinds from weaker industrial demand, investor profit-taking and hawkish monetary signals.

For Africa, the bank stresses that the implications are clear. Countries aligned with energy-transition metals and infrastructure-linked commodities stand to benefit from more resilient long-term demand.

It urged those heavily exposed to softening agricultural markets to accelerate a shift into processing, value addition and product diversification.

The bulletin also called for stronger market-intelligence systems, improved intra-African trade connectivity, and investment in logistics and regulatory capacity, noting that Africa’s competitiveness will depend on how quickly governments adapt to the new two-speed global environment.

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Aduna, Comviva to Accelerate Network APIs Monetization

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Aduna Comviva Network APIs Monetization

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A strategic partnership designed to accelerate worldwide enterprise adoption and monetisation of Network APIs has been entered into between Comviva and the global aggregator of standardised network APIs, Aduna.

The adoption would be done through Comviva’s flagship SaaS-based platform for programmable communications and network intelligence, NGAGE.ai.

The partnership combines Comviva’s NGAGE.ai platform and enterprise onboarding expertise with Aduna’s global operator consortium.

This unified approach provides enterprises with secure, scalable access to network intelligence while enabling telcos to monetise network capabilities efficiently.

The collaboration is further strengthened by Comviva’s proven leadership in the global digital payments and digital lending ecosystem— sectors that will be among the biggest adopters of Network APIs.

The NGAGE.ai platform is already active across 40+ countries, integrated with 100+ operators, and processing over 250 billion transactions annually for more than 7,000 enterprise customers. With its extensive global deployment, NGAGE.ai is positioned as one of the most scalable and trusted platforms for API-led network intelligence adoption.

“As enterprises accelerate their shift toward real-time, intelligence-driven operations, Network APIs will become foundational to digital transformation. With NGAGE.ai and Aduna’s global ecosystem, we are creating a unified and scalable pathway for enterprises to adopt programmable communications at speed and at scale.

“This partnership strengthens our commitment to helping telcos monetise network intelligence while enabling enterprises to build differentiated, secure, and future-ready digital experiences,” the chief executive of Comviva, Mr Rajesh Chandiramani, stated.

Also, the chief executive of Aduna, Mr Anthony Bartolo, noted that, “The next wave of enterprise innovation will be powered by seamless access to network intelligence.

“By integrating Comviva’s NGAGE.ai platform with Aduna’s global federation of operators, we are enabling enterprises to innovate consistently across markets with standardised, high-performance Network APIs.

“This collaboration enhances the value chain for operators and gives enterprises the confidence and agility needed to launch new services, reduce fraud, and deliver more trustworthy customer experiences worldwide.”

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