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Coronavirus Outbreak Forces New Shopping Patterns Among Consumers

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Nigerian Consumers Shoppers

As the world grapples with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and African countries such as Nigeria announce their country-specific responses to the outbreak Nielsen has found that global consumers are adapting their purchase behaviour to cope with this rapidly evolving situation.

This insight stems from the identification of six key consumer behaviour threshold levels that tie directly to concerns around the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. These thresholds offer signals of spending patterns, particularly for emergency pantry items and health supplies with these patterns being mirrored across multiple markets.

Nielsen’s Global Intelligence leader Scott McKenzie says the spending patterns identified across the various thresholds will be critical to understand as stores work to maintain supply levels of in-demand items. “As patterns begin to emerge in response to news events of this nature, it will be imperative for companies to learn from these scenarios so they can sustain growth even in times where COVID-19 is deeply impacting people’s lives. These patterns will help provide leading and trailing indicators to those trying to understand how people will respond as developments continue to play out at different times in different countries,” says McKenzie.

Key purchase indicators

When reviewed across impacted countries these patterns (though still evolving), provide a set of leading indicators for packaged goods manufacturers and retailers faced with supply issues as they race to meet record levels of demand and changing purchase habits.

Nielsen has therefore developed six threshold levels, based on these indicators across markets which are detailed below. Each one correlates with different levels of consumption, but there are some common timing elements, which are primarily driven by news cycles.

Nielsen Six Consumer Behaviour Thresholds of Covid-19 Concern

Threshold Levels 1-4 show predictable signs of spending from consumers. In other words, depending on what stage any particular country is in, there are signs that spending occurs in a common way that may make it possible to predict what might happen next at a country level.

Overall, the world is largely past the first two stages of proactive health-minded buying that drove only minor changes to sales patterns.

As news reports detailed the continued and quick spread of the virus around the world, consumers in many countries jumped to threshold level 3: pantry preparations – where countries such as Nigeria currently are. By this stage, consumers begin developing stockpiles of food and emergency supplies. These spending spikes lessen in the weeks after panic buying but spiked on subsequent news events or developments.

Pantry panic

In many countries, localized COVID-19 news developments have ignited consumer demand to the “pantry preparation” threshold. Reports of local transmission (and even deaths from COVID-19 in some markets) and government enforced containment measures drive consumer interest toward necessities one might need at home in times of ongoing crisis. Some of the more affected markets, such as Italy and South Korea, are, however, well past the mid thresholds of “pantry preparations” and even “quarantined living prep” moving onto the more advanced consumer thresholds of “restricted living”.

Looking ahead, learning from the purchase habits that were adopted in countries where consumers have progressed through the threshold levels, may help supply chain management in the countries entering the earlier threshold stages, particularly as governments enact more aggressive protocols as they learn more about the virus and its spread.

These public efforts also appear to shorten the time it takes for some countries to move through each threshold. As it stands, China is the only country with large levels of its population impacted to reach level 6 and begin returning to normal ways of living. After extended periods of isolation, many Chinese workers have returned to offices and factories, with the exception of areas hardest hit, such as Hubei province.

Changed shopping behaviour

In the coming days, Nielsen will gain further visibility into how consumers behave during threshold levels 5 and 6. For example, Italy’s decision to lock down the country in a bid to stem a rising number of cases, for example, will be a key case study of how consumers react through the ‘quarantine living preparations’ and ‘restricted living’ thresholds.

McKenzie comments; “Similar to experiences in China, we anticipate difficulties in online order fulfilment and supply chain constraints affecting those both inside and outside Italy, as consumers contend with extended periods of isolation and lack of normal access to shops.

“The outbreak has already caused an array of changes in shopping behaviour and we’re focused on understanding the ones that will come next, how long they’ll last—and whether any will stay with us after the outbreak is behind us,” he adds.

As this global health crisis continues to evolve, Nielsen will provide ongoing updates on the impact COVID-19 is having on consumer purchasing.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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BRICS Can Boost Ghana’s Economic Status

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BRICS Countries

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

With heightening of geopolitical interest in building a new Global South architecture, Ghana’s administration has to consider joining the ‘partner states category’ of BRICS+, an association of five major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The National Democratic Party (NDC) and the elected President John Mahama, while crafting future pathways and renewing commitments over democracy and governance, designing a new economic recovery programme as top priority, could initiate discussions to put Ghana on higher stage by ascending unto BRICS+ platform.

Certainly, ascending unto BRICS+ platform would become a historical landmark for Ghana which has attained prestigious status in multilateral institutions and organizations such as the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), the African Union (AU), the United Nations and also from Jan. 2025 has become the head of the Commonwealth Secretariat.

Unlike South Africa, which has acquired a full-fledged membership status in 2011, and Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda were taken into the ‘partner states’ category, Ghana has all the fundamental requirements to become part of BRICS+ alliance. It is necessary to understand the basic definition and meaning of BRICS+ in the context of the geopolitical changing world. The BRICS alliance operates on the basis of non-interference. As an anti-Western association, it stays open to mutual cooperation from countries with ‘like-minded’ political philosophy.

BRICS members have the freedom to engage their bilateral relations any external country of their choice. In addition to that, BRICS+ strategic partnership has explicitly showed that it is not a confrontation association, but rather that of cooperation designed to address global challenges, and is based on respect for the right of each country to determine its own future.

South Africa and other African countries associated with BRICS+

South Africa is strongly committed to its engagement in the BRICS+. It has, so far, hosted two of its summits. In future, Egypt and Ethiopia would have the chance to host BRICS+ summit. Egypt and Ethiopia have excellent relations with members, and simultaneously transact business and trade with other non-BRICS+, external countries.

The New Development Bank (BRICS) was established in 2015, has financed more than 100 projects, with total loans reaching approximately $35 billion, and it is great that the branch of this bank operates from Johannesburg in South Africa. Understandably, South Africa can be an investment gateway to the rest of Africa. In 2021, Bangladesh, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay joined the NDB.

The BRICS Bank works independently without any political strings, and has further pledged financial support for development initiatives in non-BRICS+ countries in the Global South. Its tasks include investing in the economy through concessional loans, alleviating poverty and working towards sustainable economic growth. According to President of the BRICS New Development Bank, Dilma Rousseff, “The bank should play a major role in the development of a multipolar, polycentric world.”

Ethiopia and Egypt are the latest addition to BRICS+ association from January 2024. South Africa and Egypt being the economic power houses, while Ethiopia ranks 8th position in the continent. In terms of demography, Nigeria is the populous, with an estimated 220 million people while Uganda has a population of 46 million. South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt are full members, Algeria, Nigeria and Uganda were offered ‘partner states’ category, but have the chance to pursue multi-dimensional cooperation with external countries. BRICS+ has absolutely no restrictions with whom to strike bilateral relationship.

From the above premise, Ghana’s new administration, within the framework of BRICS+, could work out a strategic plan to establish full coordination with and request support from African members, including South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia. Worth noting that membership benefits can not be underestimated in this era of shifting economic architecture and geopolitical situation.

Queuing for BRICS+ Membership

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger which historically sharing the cross-border region of West Africa, are in the queue to ascend into the BRICS+ association. The trio has formed their own regional economic and defense pact, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Sept. 2023, and aspiring for leveraging unto BRICS+, most likely to address their development and security questions. Brazil, as BRICS 2025 chairmanship, has set its priority on expansion of BRICS+, the enlargement wave began by Russia. More than 30 countries are the line join, hoping for equitable participation in bloc’s unique activities uniting the Global South.

Perhaps, the most crucial moment for Ghana which shares border with Burkina Faso. Its military leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré was heartily applauded for attending the inauguration of the new President John Dramani Mahama on January 7th. Burkina Faso, without International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, is transforming its agricultural sector to ensure food security, building educational and health facilities and sports complex which turns a new chapter in its political history.

In early January 2025, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) took over political power from the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Historically, the political transition has been quite smooth and admirable down the years. Ghana was ranked seventh in Africa out of 53 countries in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. The Ibrahim Index is a comprehensive measure of African governments, and methods of power transfer based on constitutional principles, rules and regulations.

Ghana produces high-quality cocoa. It has huge mineral deposits including gold, diamonds and bauxites. it has approx. 10 billion barrels of petroleum in reserves, the fifth-largest in Africa. President John Dramani Mahama, has reiterated to unlock the potentials, creating a resilient and inclusive economic model that would empower citizens and ultimately attracts foreign investments. Ghana reduced size of government, a required condition to secure funds from the IMF for development and resuscitating the economy. Ghana’s involvement in BRICS+ will steadily enhance the dynamics of its traditional governance in multipolar world.

Outlining Ghana’s potential benefits

Currently, Ghana has myriad of economic tasks to implement, aims at recovering from the previous gross mismanagement. It could take advantage of BRICS+ diverse partnership opportunities. Closing related to this, Ghana’s headquarter of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further offers an appropriate collaboration in boosting further both intra-BRICS trade and intra-Africa trade. With Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana, these put together paints an African geographical representation in BRICS+, and presents their collective African voice on the international stage.

After studying the article report titled “Ghana Should Consider Joining the BRICS Organization” (Source: http://infobrics.org), the author Natogmah Issahaku, explained, in the first place, that  Ghana’s relations with other external nations, particularly, those in the West, will not, and should not be affected by its BRICS membership. According to the expert, Ghana needs infrastructural development and sustainable economic growth in order to raise the living standard of Ghanaians to middle-income status, which could be achieved through participation in BRICS+. In return, Ghana can offer BRICS+ members export of finished and semi-finished industrial and agricultural products as well as minerals in a win-win partnership framework.

As an Applied Economist at the University of Lincoln, United Kingdom, Natogmah Issahaku emphasized the importance of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), that could play roles by financing Ghana’s development agenda. BRICS development cooperation model is based on equality and fairness, Ghana can leverage its relations to optimize potential benefits. Given the colossal scale of economic problems confronting the country, President Mahama should take strategic steps to lead Ghana into the BRICS+ without hesitation.

Notwithstanding world-wide criticisms, BRICS+ countries have advanced manufacturing and vast markets as well as technological advantages. As often argued, BRICS+ is another avenue to explore for long-term investment possibilities and work closely with its stakeholders.

These above-mentioned arguable factors are attractive for advancing Ghana in the Global South. Based on this, it is time to grab the emerging opportunity to drive increasingly high-quality cooperation, focus on hope rather than despair and step up broadly for more constructive parameters in building beneficial relations into the future! Over to the new government of President John Mahama, the estimated 35 million people and the Republic of Ghana.

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Dangote Refinery is Disrupting European Markets—OPEC

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Dangote refinery petrol production

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has noted that the increased production of petroleum products by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the importation of refined products from Europe.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the cartel said the refining efforts of the Lagos-based 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery have changed the narrative.

Business Post reports that Dangote Refinery commenced European distribution this month, as it aims for 100 per cent production.

“The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market.

“Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets which will call for new destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes going forward,” the report partly read.

OPEC added that European light distillates continue to lose ground on the back of increasingly lighter and sweeter refinery crude diets in Europe and sanctioned Russian crude imports, leading to stronger naphtha production.

“The resulting naphtha surplus coupled with the declining petrochemical cracking capacity in Europe has weighed on the regional naphtha market.”

The 650,000 barrels per day Dangote oil refinery built by Nigerian billionaire, Mr Aliko Dangote, in Lagos, had affirmed to compete with European refiners when operating at full capacity.

Although, when it started operations last year, it struggled to secure sufficient crude locally — as production remains below target and tied to contracts with other players by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

“We have gone up to 550,000 barrels per day, that is 85 per cent capacity in crude distillation,” Mr Devakumar said in December.

The refinery was forced to source crude from international markets following a dispute with the Nigerian state oil firm, the NNPC, over a crude supply deal under which Dangote Group had agreed to sell a 20 per cent stake in the refinery to NNPC for $2.76 billion.

In December 2024, on the back of the crude-for-Naira scheme, the volume of black gold supplied to the Lagos-based facility went 40 per cent higher to 395,000 barrels per day than the 280,000 barrels per day delivered in November.

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Economy

Tether Relocates Entity, Subsidiaries to El Salvador

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Tether

By Adedapo Adesanya

Stablecoin issuer, Tether Holdings Limited, will move its corporate entity and subsidiaries to El Salvador after securing a digital asset service provider (DASP) license in the Central American nation.

According to a statement on Monday, this marks a step in Tether’s journey to foster global Bitcoin adoption banking on El Salvador’s history with cryptocurrency.

“This strengthens Tether’s position in one of the world’s most forward-thinking markets and fosters the development and implementation of cutting-edge solutions more efficiently in a dynamic environment where innovation thrives. It underscores the company’s dedication to leveraging Bitcoin’s transformative potential as it drives growth in emerging markets,” the statement said.

The company said El Salvador is rapidly establishing itself as a global hub for digital assets and technology innovation.

“By embracing blockchain technology and digital currencies, El Salvador is fostering an ecosystem that encourages innovation and attracts investment in the broader financial and technology sectors.

“This strategic positioning is helping to shape the future of financial systems, making the country a key player in the global fintech landscape,” Tether added.

Speaking on this, Mr Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether said, “This decision is a natural progression for Tether as it allows us to build a new home, foster collaboration, and strengthen our focus on emerging markets.

“El Salvador represents a beacon of innovation in the digital assets space. By rooting ourselves here, we are not only aligning with a country that shares our vision in terms of financial freedom, innovation, and resilience but is also reinforcing our commitment to empowering people worldwide through decentralized technologies.”

As it takes these next bold steps, the company looks forward to working closely with El Salvador’s government, businesses, and communities to shape the future of financial technology.

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