World
Moody’s Turns Positive On Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook
By Adedapo Adesanya
Ratings agency, Moody’s, has revised its outlook for sub-Saharan Africa to positive, citing economic reforms, strong commodity prices and improved access to financing as factors helping countries withstand inflationary pressures and strengthen their fiscal positions.
Nigeria is among eight of the 25 sub-Saharan African countries rated by Moody’s that currently have a positive outlook. The other countries are South Africa, Namibia, Angola, Togo, Ghana, the Republic of Congo and Zambia.
The ratings agency expects the region’s economies to grow by an average of 4.3 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
Moody’s also projects government borrowing needs to decline to 11.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027, from 12.3 per cent in 2025. Total government debt is expected to fall from 62.4 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 56.6 per cent in 2027.
However, the agency warned that heavy debt-servicing burdens, limited government revenues, climate risks and regional security threats remain significant challenges for the region.
Moody’s only rates two of the 25 sub-Saharan African countries in investment grade, Botswana and Mauritius, meaning it considers them relatively low-risk borrowers.
Nigeria’s sovereign outlook was previously revised to positive in August 2026, from stable, while Moody’s kept Nigeria’s rating at B3. The agency cited stronger foreign-exchange reserves, better-than-expected economic growth and improved resilience to external shocks.
The ratings agency expects Zambia and Ethiopia to see the biggest drops in debt.
It also forecast that Botswana may be hit by weak diamond demand, and Gabon, which is struggling to rein in spending, will see the sharpest rises.
It noted that Kenya and Zambia will each spend about 35 per cent of their government revenue just on interest payments in 2027, more than any other country in the region.
Moody’s also warned that a prolonged surge in inflation, severe weather events or a sudden investor pullback from the region’s bond markets could darken the picture.
