World
Research Foresees Many Potential Benefits of AfCFTA for Nigeria
A research from Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics has expressed optimism that once fully implemented, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will unlock significant but uneven growth opportunities on the continent.
The survey titled AfCFTA’s $3 trillion Opportunity: Weighing Existing Barriers against Potential Economic Gains said countries with good trade integration and open economies are most likely to benefit first from lower trade tariffs.
However, it pointed out that numerous obstacles across the continent mean that the tangible benefits of the agreement will likely only be realized from 2030.
“Nigeria’s first obstacle is that although the AfCFTA agreement has been signed, it is yet to be ratified, so it does not have the force of law in the country.
“Section 12 of the Constitution states that an international treaty or agreement entered into by Nigeria will not have automatic application in the country unless the treaty or agreement has been domesticated by an Act of the National Assembly.
“The AfCFTA is expected to take effect in July 2020, but no timeline has been set as yet for the implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement in Nigeria,” a partner at Templars law firm in Lagos, Ijeoma Uju, commented at the African Trade Show in Lagos, which was hosted by global law firm Baker McKenzie and Templars in Nigeria.
Mr Mattias Hedwall, Partner and Global Chair of Baker McKenzie’s International Commercial & Trade Group, noted at the event in Lagos that countries that have created more open, business-friendly environments stand to make the biggest gains from AfCFTA.
“The AfCFTA agreement will create the world’s largest free trade zone by number of countries and is expected to revolutionise trade across the continent.
“Once implemented, it will lead to sustainable socio-economic development, increased diversification, a boost in investment, trade liberalisation, the industrialisation of African economies, the establishment of new cross-border value chains and better insulation from global shocks,” he said.
Trade between countries in Africa, however is currently not high. Baker McKenzie’s research shows how trade links between Africa and the rest of the world are, at present, often stronger than trade between countries on the continent. African nations currently tend to trade more with Europe (35%) and Asia (31%) than with neighbouring markets. In contrast, less than a fifth of African countries’ exports are headed to other countries on the continent.
“These intracontinental trade shortcomings underscore the extent of lost revenue and development opportunities for African countries. They also highlight the benefits of supporting the AfCFTA and working together towards its successful implementation,” explained Hedwall.
The research compares Africa’s 20 largest economies in terms of the share of exports destined for other economies on the continent. Some economies, such as Uganda and Zimbabwe, buck the overall trend, trading more with their neighbours than other African nations do.
“Yet, their economies are small in contrast to those of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, which together represent more than half of the continent’s GDP.
“Egypt and Nigeria have very limited trade relationships with their African peers, because as major fuel exporters, they are more focused on exports outside the continent.
“Over three quarters of African exports to the rest of the world are heavily focused on natural resources, primarily raw materials.
“In contrast, a look at African imports from outside the continent reveals that manufacturing products, industrial machinery and transport equipment constitute over 50% of Africa’s combined needs.
“Currently, Africa’s external imports account for more than half of the total volume of imports, with the most important suppliers being Europe (35%), China (16%) and the rest of Asia including India (14%).
“By contrast imports from other parts of Africa account for only 16% of total merchandise imports,” said event panellist Virusha Subban, a Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg.
“Manufacturing GDP represents on average only 10% of GDP in Africa. This means that limited production capabilities within Africa are currently being compensated for through foreign imports.
“Yet, this manufacturing deficit could be eventually satisfied within the continent and enabled by AfCFTA. Manufactured products currently exported to African countries by their peers, primarily industrial machinery and motor vehicles, represent a third of the total trade flow in Africa.
“But a significant share of these intraregional exports of manufactured goods are re-exports of imported manufactured products from the rest of the world,” she said.
“This shows that African nations do not trade more with each other because of a misalignment between what various African countries need and what is produced on the continent.
“This misalignment signals missed opportunities to reduce foreign imports from outside Africa and increase trade flows within the continent. For AfCFTA to succeed fully, more countries need to diversify their production of goods to better match the import needs of their continental neighbours,” she noted.
Ijeoma noted further, “One of the benefits of the trade agreement for Nigeria is that the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers will grant Nigerian businesses access to the continental market.
“A further benefit includes that Nigeria will secure a more balanced and sustainable export base by moving away from extractive commodities, such as oil and minerals, which have traditionally accounted for most of its exports.
“Manufacturers and producers will also benefit from economies of scale and access to cheaper raw materials and intermediate inputs and competition in the quality of good and service will improve. Jobs will be created, the platform for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) integration into the regional and continental value chains will be expanded.
“Additionally, it will provide access to new dispute resolution mechanisms and will result in the progressive liberisation of the service sectors.”
The research underscores the importance of also addressing non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade. Some of the most significant non-tariff barriers to AfCFTA are inadequate infrastructure, poor trade logistics, onerous regulatory requirements, volatile financial markets, regional conflict and complex and corrupt customs procedures.
These can be even more detrimental to trade expansion than tariff measures. As such, AfCFTA is expected to act as a strong impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs as well as to overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows. Both domestic and foreign trade will benefit from reforms to regulation, political climate and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business.
“Nigeria will be better positioned to benefit from AfCFTA once it improves the business environment and addresses gaps in its transport and utilities infrastructure,” noted Ijeoma.
“We have to be realistic about timeframes, however, as effective solutions will take years, given limited financial capacity in many countries, high risks to private financing of infrastructure, political hurdles, administration shortfalls and lack of resources.
“So, while there are still numerous challenges to be resolved, we expect that if the barriers can be addressed, the next decade will see the growth of AfCFTA into one world’s most exciting new global trading zones,” added Hedwall.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s best-known digital currency, reached a fresh record high of $108,943 on Monday morning as Mr Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House.
The support from Mr Trump has boosted the crypto industry and after mentioning the asset’s record performance in a Sunday speech alongside gains in the broader US stock market, the prices have been heading north.
“Since the election, the stock market has surged and small business optimism has soared a record 41 points to a 39-year high. Bitcoin has shattered one record high after another,” Mr Trump said.
Business Post reports that some other tokens making gains include Ethereum (ETH), the second most valued coin which has gained 5.9 per cent to $3,349.93, Ripple (XPR) added 6.2 per cent to sell at $3.31, and Cardano (ADA) added 3.3 per cent to $1.07.
Mr Trump, who over the weekend launched a coin, has been vocal about his support for cryptocurrencies during his campaign and promised to make the US the crypto capital of the planet and create a strategic national bitcoin reserve, moves that have fueled investor optimism.
There are hopes that new policies and regulators will send the price of BTC and by extension, other coins much further this year as the US economy continues to show strength in the long term.
BTC reversed losses from earlier in the day when it fell to nearly $100,000 from a high over $102,000 on Sunday as incoming first lady Melania Trump issued a memecoin, drawing liquidity away from major assets.
Mrs Trump followed her husband’s lead by launching a multibillion-dollar cryptocurrency meme coin – briefly tanking the price of $TRUMP coin in the process.
A meme coin is a type of cryptocurrency inspired by trends such as internet memes with no inherent utility, and are often susceptible to price swings and crashes. Meme coins have been described by traders as a pure form of gambling and akin to buying a lottery ticket.
However, some crypto enthusiasts hailed the Trump meme coin’s release, saying it was symbolic of the incoming president’s support for an industry that felt unfairly targeted by the Biden administration.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has joined the BRICS bloc of developing economies to boost trade and investment. It is not joining as a full status member but as a partner country.
According to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the effect, the country was admitted as a BRICS partner country during a BRICS summit in Russia in 2024.
This marked the country’s inclusion in a partnership with 12 other nations aimed at strengthening ties with the emerging economic bloc.
As a partner, Nigeria can engage with BRICS initiatives without the formal obligations or decision-making rights that come with full membership.
Full members, on the other hand, actively shape the bloc’s policies, benefit from broader access to resources, and have a more significant role in governance.
BRICS was established in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining a year later in 2010. In 2024, the alliance expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Saudi Arabia has also received an invitation but has not yet formalised its membership.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the formal acceptance to participate as a partner country highlights Nigeria’s commitment to fostering international collaboration and leveraging economic opportunities.
The ministry also said Nigeria is focused on advancing strategic partnerships that align with its development objectives.
The ministry noted that BRICS, as a collective of major emerging economies, presents a unique platform for Nigeria to enhance trade, investment, and socio-economic cooperation with member countries.
Business Post reports that Nigeria becomes the ninth BRICS partner country, joining Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.
BRICS created to counterbalance the Group of Seven (G7), which consists of advanced economies. BRICS aims to amplify the influence of developing nations.
The term “BRICS” originated in the early 2000s as a label for emerging economies projected to become major global economic powers by the mid-21st century. The bloc has since evolved into a platform for addressing global economic disparities and fostering cooperation among rising economies.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
With heightening of geopolitical interest in building a new Global South architecture, Ghana’s administration has to consider joining the ‘partner states category’ of BRICS+, an association of five major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The National Democratic Party (NDC) and the elected President John Mahama, while crafting future pathways and renewing commitments over democracy and governance, designing a new economic recovery programme as top priority, could initiate discussions to put Ghana on higher stage by ascending unto BRICS+ platform.
Certainly, ascending unto BRICS+ platform would become a historical landmark for Ghana which has attained prestigious status in multilateral institutions and organizations such as the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), the African Union (AU), the United Nations and also from Jan. 2025 has become the head of the Commonwealth Secretariat.
Unlike South Africa, which has acquired a full-fledged membership status in 2011, and Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda were taken into the ‘partner states’ category, Ghana has all the fundamental requirements to become part of BRICS+ alliance. It is necessary to understand the basic definition and meaning of BRICS+ in the context of the geopolitical changing world. The BRICS alliance operates on the basis of non-interference. As an anti-Western association, it stays open to mutual cooperation from countries with ‘like-minded’ political philosophy.
BRICS members have the freedom to engage their bilateral relations any external country of their choice. In addition to that, BRICS+ strategic partnership has explicitly showed that it is not a confrontation association, but rather that of cooperation designed to address global challenges, and is based on respect for the right of each country to determine its own future.
South Africa and other African countries associated with BRICS+
South Africa is strongly committed to its engagement in the BRICS+. It has, so far, hosted two of its summits. In future, Egypt and Ethiopia would have the chance to host BRICS+ summit. Egypt and Ethiopia have excellent relations with members, and simultaneously transact business and trade with other non-BRICS+, external countries.
The New Development Bank (BRICS) was established in 2015, has financed more than 100 projects, with total loans reaching approximately $35 billion, and it is great that the branch of this bank operates from Johannesburg in South Africa. Understandably, South Africa can be an investment gateway to the rest of Africa. In 2021, Bangladesh, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay joined the NDB.
The BRICS Bank works independently without any political strings, and has further pledged financial support for development initiatives in non-BRICS+ countries in the Global South. Its tasks include investing in the economy through concessional loans, alleviating poverty and working towards sustainable economic growth. According to President of the BRICS New Development Bank, Dilma Rousseff, “The bank should play a major role in the development of a multipolar, polycentric world.”
Ethiopia and Egypt are the latest addition to BRICS+ association from January 2024. South Africa and Egypt being the economic power houses, while Ethiopia ranks 8th position in the continent. In terms of demography, Nigeria is the populous, with an estimated 220 million people while Uganda has a population of 46 million. South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt are full members, Algeria, Nigeria and Uganda were offered ‘partner states’ category, but have the chance to pursue multi-dimensional cooperation with external countries. BRICS+ has absolutely no restrictions with whom to strike bilateral relationship.
From the above premise, Ghana’s new administration, within the framework of BRICS+, could work out a strategic plan to establish full coordination with and request support from African members, including South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia. Worth noting that membership benefits can not be underestimated in this era of shifting economic architecture and geopolitical situation.
Queuing for BRICS+ Membership
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger which historically sharing the cross-border region of West Africa, are in the queue to ascend into the BRICS+ association. The trio has formed their own regional economic and defense pact, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Sept. 2023, and aspiring for leveraging unto BRICS+, most likely to address their development and security questions. Brazil, as BRICS 2025 chairmanship, has set its priority on expansion of BRICS+, the enlargement wave began by Russia. More than 30 countries are the line join, hoping for equitable participation in bloc’s unique activities uniting the Global South.
Perhaps, the most crucial moment for Ghana which shares border with Burkina Faso. Its military leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré was heartily applauded for attending the inauguration of the new President John Dramani Mahama on January 7th. Burkina Faso, without International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, is transforming its agricultural sector to ensure food security, building educational and health facilities and sports complex which turns a new chapter in its political history.
In early January 2025, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) took over political power from the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Historically, the political transition has been quite smooth and admirable down the years. Ghana was ranked seventh in Africa out of 53 countries in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. The Ibrahim Index is a comprehensive measure of African governments, and methods of power transfer based on constitutional principles, rules and regulations.
Ghana produces high-quality cocoa. It has huge mineral deposits including gold, diamonds and bauxites. it has approx. 10 billion barrels of petroleum in reserves, the fifth-largest in Africa. President John Dramani Mahama, has reiterated to unlock the potentials, creating a resilient and inclusive economic model that would empower citizens and ultimately attracts foreign investments. Ghana reduced size of government, a required condition to secure funds from the IMF for development and resuscitating the economy. Ghana’s involvement in BRICS+ will steadily enhance the dynamics of its traditional governance in multipolar world.
Outlining Ghana’s potential benefits
Currently, Ghana has myriad of economic tasks to implement, aims at recovering from the previous gross mismanagement. It could take advantage of BRICS+ diverse partnership opportunities. Closing related to this, Ghana’s headquarter of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further offers an appropriate collaboration in boosting further both intra-BRICS trade and intra-Africa trade. With Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana, these put together paints an African geographical representation in BRICS+, and presents their collective African voice on the international stage.
After studying the article report titled “Ghana Should Consider Joining the BRICS Organization” (Source: http://infobrics.org), the author Natogmah Issahaku, explained, in the first place, that Ghana’s relations with other external nations, particularly, those in the West, will not, and should not be affected by its BRICS membership. According to the expert, Ghana needs infrastructural development and sustainable economic growth in order to raise the living standard of Ghanaians to middle-income status, which could be achieved through participation in BRICS+. In return, Ghana can offer BRICS+ members export of finished and semi-finished industrial and agricultural products as well as minerals in a win-win partnership framework.
As an Applied Economist at the University of Lincoln, United Kingdom, Natogmah Issahaku emphasized the importance of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), that could play roles by financing Ghana’s development agenda. BRICS development cooperation model is based on equality and fairness, Ghana can leverage its relations to optimize potential benefits. Given the colossal scale of economic problems confronting the country, President Mahama should take strategic steps to lead Ghana into the BRICS+ without hesitation.
Notwithstanding world-wide criticisms, BRICS+ countries have advanced manufacturing and vast markets as well as technological advantages. As often argued, BRICS+ is another avenue to explore for long-term investment possibilities and work closely with its stakeholders.
These above-mentioned arguable factors are attractive for advancing Ghana in the Global South. Based on this, it is time to grab the emerging opportunity to drive increasingly high-quality cooperation, focus on hope rather than despair and step up broadly for more constructive parameters in building beneficial relations into the future! Over to the new government of President John Mahama, the estimated 35 million people and the Republic of Ghana.
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