By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

With geopolitical developments shaping the world, Africa is expectedly changing with the times. It has gone far, particularly with Russia, opened new directions in bilateral economic cooperation after their joint historic summits.

It is also time to make critical appraisals of Russia’s policy towards Africa. By next year 2026, Russia’s strategic plan to ensure and support food security may fade away its its policy mainstream.

First and second summits witnessed agreements and declarations signed to tectonic applause with an unwavering decision characterized by increasing food and agricultural products, including grains and chicken meat across Africa.

There was also an underlined promised to ferry unspecified huge amount of fertilizer to Africa. Africa leaders expressed an excitement to the announcement of this partnership with the Russian Federation. But now these aspects of Russian-African partnership on food security would likely change, primarily due to Africa adopting import substitution policy and redirecting focus on radical measures to improve domestic agricultural production.

On May 13, the Intergovernmental Commission for Trade and Economic Cooperation, during the meeting in St. Petersburg, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, who co-chaired the meeting with Planning and Investment Minister Kitila Mkumbo, noted Tanzania’s geographical location as a single window for Russian products entering the East African market.

More than 40 Russian companies are currently interested in exporting animal products and a few others to Tanzania and to East Africa region. The participants emphasized the country could be a conduit and entry-gate through which to reach East African region with Russia’s agricultural exports, and that would generate an estimated US$15 billion in revenue for Russian government.

What is important, and the most interesting fact here, Tanzanian economy is heavily based on agriculture. It has a vast arable land for farming. But Tanzania, like many other African leaders, are readily addicted to spend huge budget importing goods that they can locally.

According to the Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov many potential state buyers expressed interest in such imports, reiterated Russia’s preparedness to ensure food security.

In a similar direction, earlier on as reported by Interfax Information Agency, the Agroexport Center of the Ministry of Agriculture listed 25 African countries.

In an interview, Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers Chairman, Dmitry Sergeyev, at the 4th Russian Grain Forum in Sochi, emphasized that  the potential export destinations for Russian grain crops in the current season included Algeria, Kenya, Nigeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Tanzania and Sudan in Africa.

In recent seasons, shipments to Algeria, Israel, Kenya, China, Libya and Morocco have increased manifold or even by an order of magnitude. The first shipments were made to Djibouti, Gambia, the Central African Republic, and Eritrea.

“Russia is a reliable exporter of wheat to countries in Africa. We currently occupy a third of the entire African wheat market, exporting to 40 African countries overall. The most notable success of recent years was the sharp increase or start of exports to Algeria, Libya, Kenya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Tanzania,” Dmitry Sergeyev told Interfax News Agency.

The African grain market held many prospects in light of fast population growth, the growing middle class and increasing purchasing power. Although, it would be a mistake to refer to Africa as a monolith, as it has five sub-regions, which differ significantly from each other. Therefore, Russia is developing its relationship with different African countries in different ways.

“On the other hand, there are some other countries in central and southern parts of the continent, which often lack sufficient infrastructure and are logistically hard to reach – we have to interact with them via international traders. Increasing grain exports to Africa require a comprehensive approach encompassing logistics, storage and processing. We are already taking certain steps in this direction,” explained Dmitry Sergeyev.

Given it’s keenness not only in supplying but increasing agricultural products and fertilizers, Russia’s remote aim was to raise revenue from these importing African countries. These African countries are blessed with huge expanse of agricultural lands, the human resources are enormous just need support and encouragement from the government institutions and agencies.

Local African agriculturists have complained bitterly of gross lack of state support, and yet governments allocated huge large part of national budget to import on bilateral agreements, goods and service that could be made and obtained at home.

African leaders are solidarizing their interests by sacrificing local production, and under-utilizing available resources. Russia consistently challenges American and European hegemony, asked Africa to transact deals using their local currencies.

Resultantly, Africa has to abandon the importance of American dollar, and still pursue corporate agreements to review and possibly extend AGOA for the next 10 years.

In 2024, financial remittances amounted to $58 billion from United States to Africa. Meanwhile, Kremlin and Russian companies rarely announce financial figures for investment in various sectors. The stark reality is that Russia, at best and based on its rising ‘soft power’ and political influence, could further balance strategic powers with building comprehensive investment partnerships in Africa.

Local Russian media reported series of Russia’s exports to Africa, praised Kremlin’s efforts to feed Africa but further warned against growing Africa’s growing dependence on imports. Policy experts have set more alternative tones, at both Russia-Africa summits and several similar conferences, for rather focusing on stronger agricultural initiatives inside Africa.

Generally, the proposed suggestion was to push for greater collaboration on Africa’s greater self-reliance on domestic agricultural production. These have, since then, remained a top-scale challenge featuring in Russia-Africa economic cooperation.

As PhosAgro’s First Deputy CEO, Siroj Loikov, noted during the briefing in early July 2025, PhosAgro not only continues to strengthen its position as the leader in terms of total supply of all mineral fertilizers to the priority Russian market, but also remains a key supplier of phosphate-based fertilizers to the countries of the Global South, including African countries.

Over the past decade, PhosAgro’s exports have nearly doubled and achieved 8.6 million tonnes in 2024. Today, Africa is a key focus for the Company’s international growth strategy. PhosAgro supplies its products to 21 African countries. The top five African importers of the company’s agrochemical products include South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Mozambique.

With its extensive product line, PhosAgro is well positioned to address the specific needs of African regions, offering customers the best solutions while also making a significant contribution to the continent’s food security.

Over the next five years, PhosAgro expects to double deliveries to the continent. There were some praises, but on other side also raised significant concerns over extremely high cost of logistics and the resultant effects on prices for importing African governments.

In addition, leading agronomy researchers and practitioners say Russian chemical fertilizers and its agrochemistry have had negative effects on crop production and livestock farming, simply not compactible with the local soil conditions.

Therefore, the practical solution would be to settle for suitable alternatives. It would be line to adopt import substitution, to largely cut importation cost and preserve the environment. Moreso, local production invariably creates some employment for the youth.

Speaking at the 32nd Afreximbank Annual Meeting, Entrepreneur Aliko Dangote, believes Africa could be a ‘Heaven’ within five years (until 2030)—if Africans think boldly and act with purpose. His position was that Africans can shape their own future, urging leaders to prioritize long-term development over reliance on foreign industrial sources.

Dangote has already exemplified this ‘local self-reliance’ through his $20 billion refinery in Lagos—the largest single-train facility in the world—which is already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape and challenging Europe’s $17 billion gasoline export market.

Furthermore, Dangote plans to generate $30 billion in revenue next year and become the top global urea exporter—bringing his vision of African industrial might closer to reality.

Reports indicated that Nigeria first-class entrepreneur, Aliko Dangote would establish under a major agreement to engage in large-scale production of fertilizer for the Eastern Africa. The estimated $3 billion aims at stabilizing supply and enhance agricultural productivity. Ethiopia and neighbouring countries have faced shortages and worse, spent much importing from abroad. The shortages have also worsened due to foreign currency constraints, logistical delays and geopolitical instability.

Located near the Ethiopia-Djibouti logistics corridor, the Dangote Fertilizer, the largest granulated urea fertilizer complex in Africa, has played a vital role in in reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fertilizers and supporting the country’s agricultural sector. The expansion in interpreted as part of measures to solidify Dangote Fertilizer’s presence in the African fertilizer market, ensuring regular supply, and support regional agricultural growth.

Several policy experts have, over the past few years, suggested to African leaders and their governments to drastically halt importation of agricultural items that can be produce locally, redirect funds in supporting local farmers. The most prominent reasons are obviously to increase local productivity, create employment while addressing multiple obstacles confronting African agricultural production.

Quite recently, the Board of Directors of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and African Development Banks have also told African leaders to halt imports, and further announced financial allocation for the African agricultural sector. Shareholders in both banks have also advised to accelerate efforts in boosting intra-African agriculture.

Under an agreement, Afreximbank is financing the construction works related to the fertilizer plant based in Soyo, Angola. This transformative $2 billion fertilizer plant project reflects the commitment of OPAIA Group to the Southern African country’s industrial and agricultural development in partnership with globally renowned technical companies such as KBR, TOYO Engineering Corporation, WeDO, and Wuhan Engineering Company.

Speaking at the signing ceremony on behalf of the President of the Bank, Ms Oluranti Doherty, Managing Director, Export Development at Afreximbank said: “Afreximbank is pleased to lead the mobilization of capital for this project, recognizing the importance of Amufert SA’s ammonia and urea production plant to regional and national food sovereignty, via the localization of fertilizer production in Angola. When commissioned, the fertilizer plant will  facilitate higher agriculture yields, higher production, and an increase in export volumes of agriculture products from Angola.”

Agostinho Kapaia, Chairman of OPAIA Group, said: “This project represents much more than the construction of a factory. It is a key element in the economic development of Angola and Africa, a driving force for the growth of industry and a concrete solution to the urgent need to increase agricultural production and guarantee food security for future generations.”

With a production capacity of 4,000 metric tons per day, the Amufert S.A. plant is expected to revolutionize Angola’s agricultural sector, significantly reducing the country’s reliance on imported fertilizers.

The project will generate significant benefits, including the creation of 4,700 jobs — 3,500 during the construction phase and 1,200 permanent positions once completed. It will also contribute to Angola’s economic diversification by leveraging natural gas resources, thereby reducing reliance on oil revenues.

Additionally, the initiative will support farmers by ensuring a consistent supply of affordable, high-quality fertilizers, boosting agricultural productivity and enhancing food security.

This will not only enhance Angola’s agricultural resilience but also position the country as a leader in fertilizer production across Africa. Surplus production will enable Angola to become a key fertilizer exporter within Africa, fostering regional economic integration and promoting intra-African trade.

In a short policy summary, the challenges of Russia’s increased agricultural exports instead of focusing on investment in local production in Africa may ultimately be reviewed taking into serious consideration import substitution measures being adopted by African States.

For championing environmental urgency and import substitution policy, Africa must lead a bold policy shift, not for geopolitical solidarity but for attaining an economic sovereignty.