Economy
Firm Unveils Volatility Index for Nigerian Stock Market
By Quantitative Financial Analytics
Stock market volatility is one of those words that are being thrown around every now and then when describing stock market behaviours.
For example, on January 29, 2016, The Vanguard had an article entitled, “Stock Market Volatility – Operators Seek Govt Intervention Fund”, and On November 11, 2017, it also had another article, The ‘Big Oil’ and market volatilities”.
In the same way, ThisDay newspaper, on June 23, 2014 wrote “Stock Market Volatility Persists”. Even on LinkedIn pages, people write about market volatilities like the one written by Rotimi Fakayejo, MD Enterprise StockBrokers Plc on September 9, 2015, who posted the article “Gainers & Losers of the volatility of the Nigerian Bourse” on his LinkedIn page.
The Guardian on its business page wrote, “Equities rise on the Exchange amid volatility” on February 8, 2015.
Those are excellent articles both in content and intent although some made it look like market volatility is necessarily a bad thing. But one thing lacking in the articles is the quantification of how volatile the Nigerian market had been or was expected to be.
There have been various explanations for increased or subdued volatilities in the market as some of those articles opined. One reason is the arrival of new and unanticipated information that tends to or alters the expected return on a stock.
News items like the Brexit, the Chinese contagion, escalation of the US-North Korea impasse can have remarkable effects on market volatility. Changes in volatility can even emanate from changes in investors’ behaviours like when investors panic in anticipation of an election result or FED or Central bank decisions on interest rates, etc.
Volatility does not imply that the market is collapsing; rather, it implies that the market is behaving in such a way that it is more difficult to make accurate predictions about the market based on currently prevailing data and information.
Depending on one’s investment strategy and horizon and subject to the availability of tradable financial instruments, investors can manage and even profit from volatility.
In more advanced markets with tradable financial products like variance and volatility swaps, volatility may present opportunities for profit.
It follows therefore that knowledge of volatility of returns in stock markets’ behaviour is of paramount importance to investors because such knowledge helps investors to know or gain more information on the data generating such returns.
Knowing how volatile the stock market has been or is expected to be, guides investors in their decision-making process as such knowledge enables them to access both the return potential of the market as well as the uncertainty of such returns.
Volatility is the “magnitude of movements regardless of direction” and stock market volatility relates to the magnitude of price changes without paying attention to whether the change is up or down.
Stock market volatility is captured by two broad measures: implied and realized volatility. Realized volatility differs from implied volatility.
While implied volatility is a forward-looking measure, realized volatility is historical or backward looking.
Implied volatility answers the question, what is the expected volatility of the market in so and so time while realized volatility answers the question, what was or is the actual market volatility in so and so period.
While realized volatility is based on the actual movement of an underlying, implied volatility is based on a value derived from associated options prices. Realized volatility measures real risk while implied volatility measures anticipated risk.
Indices that measure volatility abound the world over especially in more advanced markets. The Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE)’s VIX, otherwise called the fear gauge, measures implied volatility in the US market while India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices in India and is meant to measure implied volatility in Indian stock market.
In the UK, implied volatility is measured with the FTSE IVI and is based on the index’s underlying option prices. In abundance also are realized volatility measures in more advanced markets like those calculated by S&P Dow Jones.
Currently, there is no index that measures implied or realized volatilities of the Nigerian stock market. The absence of an implied volatility measure is understandable as such is derivable from options and options are non-existent in the Nigerian market.
Realized volatility on the other hand, is derivable from historical data. To fill this gap, analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics have come up with a Realized Volatility Index for the Nigerian Market.
The index is a one-month look back volatility measure of the NSE All Share index, (hereinafter called the underlying index). It assumes a 21-day monthly trading period and multiplies the result by 100 to reflect the index as a percentage.
The index is calculated daily and for all the trading dates that its underlying index (ASI) is calculated. The index has been calculated from 1998 to present and gives a bird’s eye view of the most and least volatile periods of the Nigerian stock market.
Comparatively speaking, the S&P 500 1-month realized index as at November 22, 2017 was 5.85, down from 5.87 the previous day while the Quantitative Financial Analytics (QFA) Nigeria All Share Index realized volatility index for corresponding period was 6.45, down from 6.55 the previous day.
Now, it is easy to talk about market volatility in Nigeria with some specifics and ability to compare with other markets and periods, at least in realized terms.
Quantitative Financial Analytics continues to add value to the Nigerian market with its many analytics.
It will be recalled that not long above, it rolled out its Fixed Income Analytics Report, which is a report with robust data and information on sovereign and corporate bonds trading in the Nigerian market.
For more information on the index and other reports, please contact us at analytics@mutualfundsnigeria.com
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s first-ever domestic US Dollar bond has been named as the West Africa Deal of the Year at the 2025 Global Banking & Markets Africa Awards, following a highly successful issuance that raised $917 million.
Announced by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on August 19, 2024, the bond initially targeted $500 million but was oversubscribed by 180 per cent.
The raise came with a five-year tenor and was listed on both the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange.
The landmark issuance attracted a broad spectrum of investors, including local institutions, diaspora Nigerians, and international players. Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) served as Global Coordinator.
The Ministry of Finance said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter, that the Minister of State for Finance, Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, received the award at the Bonds, Loans & ESG Capital Markets Conference in Cape Town, South Africa.
She formally presented it to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun in his office in Abuja on Thursday.
“This award marks an important step in our ambition to position Nigeria—and Lagos—as a leading international financial centre,” Mr Edun said.
“It also reflects growing confidence in the expertise and resilience of Nigeria’s financial system, which has once again delivered under challenging global conditions”, the Minister affirmed.
The ministry noted that the prestigious award underscores Nigeria’s commitment to developing its capital markets, improving its investment landscape, and attracting foreign investment, adding that it is also a testament to the country’s potential for economic growth and its determination to become a leading international financial centre.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has cautioned refinery operators against importing substandard crude oil, following the expiry of the Naira-for-crude deal.
In a statement signed by its National Public Relations Officer, Mr Joseph Obele, the association said imported crude must meet global standards to ensure the production of high-quality petroleum products.
The group stressed that Nigerian crude oil, classified as Sweet Crude due to its low sulfur content of less than 0.5 per cent – ranks among the best in the world, and importation possess a high risk.
“We see no reason why imported crude oil should be of lower standards. The importation of substandard crude oil will compromise the quality of petroleum products, undermine the growth of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, and ultimately harm consumers.”
PETROAN also expressed concern over speculations that petroleum product prices may rise following the expiration of the naira-for-crude arrangement and called for continued access to imported refined petroleum products to stabilize prices and ensure energy sufficiency.
“The permutations in the media that petroleum prices might increase as the Naira-for-crude deal comes to an end is a serious concern to PETROAN. In order to avoid this scenario, we advocate that the window for importing refined petroleum products should remain open.”
The group urged regulatory agencies to conduct rigorous laboratory testing on all crude oil imports to verify their quality.
“We call on regulatory agencies to be on high alert and conduct thorough laboratory analysis on all crude oil imports to ensure they meet the required standards. We also urge the relevant authorities to ensure that refinery operators adhere to the highest operational standards.”
The association further called on the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, to conduct a comprehensive review of the Naira-for-crude initiative to determine the next steps in Nigeria’s energy sector.
“The reforms introduced by the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA, encourage competition in the downstream sector. Competition is a catalyst for price reduction in any sector. We believe that as the market adjusts to the new realities, prices will stabilize and eventually decrease.”
PETROAN also announced plans to conduct independent laboratory testing on refined petroleum products.
“We will conduct laboratory testing on refined petroleum products to determine which refinery or depot our members should buy from. This is to ensure that our members and the Nigerian public are not sold substandard products.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange bounced back on Thursday, April 3 from its previous day’s loss, gaining 0.24 per cent at the close of business.
This increased the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 7.78 points to 3,316.34 points from the preceding trading day’s 3,308.46 points and raised the portfolios of unlisted securities investors by N4.55 billion as the market capitalisation ended at N1.915 trillion compared with Wednesday’s N1.910 trillion.
This growth occurred after the bourse finished with three price gainers and one price loser, IPWA Plc, which shed 5 Kobo to end at 50 Kobo per share, in contrast to midweek’s value of 55 Kobo per share.
Business Post reports that FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.16 to close at N38.66 per unit versus N36.50 per unit, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc appreciated by 2 Kobo to 58 Kobo per unit from 56 Kobo per unit, and Food Concepts Plc rose by 1 Kobo to N1.18 per share from N1.17 per share.
Data indicated that there was a decrease of 95.9 per cent in the volume of securities bought and sold by the market participants to 372,568 units from the 9.1 million units transacted in the previous trading day.
Equally, the value of transactions slid by 43.7 per cent to N4.1 million from N7.2 million, and the number of deals went up by 81.8 per cent to 40 deals from 22 deals.
When the market ended for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 70.2 million units sold for N23.8 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.2 million units valued at N89.4 million.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc finished the trading day as the active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 13.8 million units valued at N531.6 million, trailed by Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.8 million units sold for N364.2 million.
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