Economy
Why Nigeria May Hike Pump Price, Raise Interest Rate, Devalue Naira in 2019
By FSDH Research
Certain key events, both at the global level and in Nigeria, will influence economic and business activities in 2019.
FSDH Research examines a few of these events and discusses the implications for businesses and investments in Nigeria.
The expected hike in interest rates in major advanced countries will lead to an increase in global yields and may put pressure on currency in Nigeria.
There are strong indications that the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank will increase interest rates in 2019. The expected increase in the interest rate in the international market may also lead to an increase in the interest rate in Nigeria because of monetary policy adjustments to reduce capital flight.
Nigeria may lose a substantial amount of its projected crude oil revenue due to a limit on crude oil production and the drop in the global crude oil price. This may also lead to a drop in the supply of foreign exchange into Nigeria, resulting in a possible depreciation or devaluation of the Naira.
Nigerian businesses should look for local alternatives, where possible, for the raw materials needed for their production process.
They should also limit or eliminate foreign debt, particularly if they do not have foreign exchange receivables to mitigate the possible foreign exchange risk.
FSDH Research also advises that businesses should put in place appropriate foreign exchange hedging strategies. The Q3 2018 Balance of Payment (BoP) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published shows that earnings from crude oil and gas accounted for 94.4 percent of total export earnings during the period.
The external trade report that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published for Q3 2018 shows that crude oil exports accounted for 85 percent of total exports. Therefore, any adverse movement in crude oil price or production has high negative implications on the Nigerian economy.
Although FSDH Research expects the general election in 2019 to be peaceful, its outcome will determine economic activity and business in Nigeria.
A peaceful election will ensure stability of the Nigerian economy and pave the way for the flow of investments, both Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) into Nigeria. Certain longterm business and investment decisions may be taken immediately after the election if the current government retains power.
However, if there is a change in power, investors may wait until after the presidential inauguration on May 29 before they take long-term investment decisions, to give them enough time to access details of the policies of the incoming government.
There are certain macroeconomic realities that the Nigerian government must contend with in 2019.
FSDH Research believes the fiscal deficit in 2019 may be higher than in 2018, and higher than what is projected for the year 2019. In order to execute certain plans that will move the economy forward, government may have to increase borrowing or partner with private sector operators on key projects.
An increase in borrowing will increase the interest rate, while partnership with the private sector will expand economic activity and create new job opportunities.
Already, the ratio of government’s debt service to revenue is high and at an unsustainable level. Therefore, additional debt, in an environment of rising interest rates, may reduce government’s ability to execute critical programmes that will improve the business environment.
While fixed income investors may enjoy higher yields in 2019 than in 2018, businesses may suffer under rising interest costs.
FSDH Research analysis shows that electricity and the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are two key prices that government will need to adjust in 2019 to free up funds for developmental purposes.
The adjustment may increase the inflation rate in the short-term, but it will benefit the economy in the long-term. More investments are required in the power sector than are currently available.
However, the sector may not attract investment in the absence of a cost-reflective tariff. Government already allows an off-grid power supply arrangement based on ‘willing buyer, willing seller’. The tariff at which this arrangement is settled is higher than the tariff for the power from on-grid supply. Appropriate policy responses from government and strategies from the business community may ameliorate the likely negative impacts of these key events in 2019.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The N3.04 billion rights issue of Regency Alliance Insurance Plc is expected to open on Monday, June 22, 2026, and close on Friday, July 3, 2026, with shareholders urged to participate.
The underwriting firm recently signed an agreement on the rights issue, with board members, management, issuing houses, legal advisers, stockbrokers, and other key stakeholders in attendance.
Regency Alliance is offering to shareholders 3,201,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at 95 Kobo per share on the basis of one new ordinary share for every five ordinary shares held.
The purpose of the fresh capital raise is to bolster the company’s solvency ratios, support business growth, and invest in digital infrastructure and new product development.
The insurance company noted that the rights issue provides an opportunity to existing shareholders to subscribe for additional shares in proportion to their current holdings, protecting them from dilution while enabling them to participate in the organisation’s future growth.
“This capital raise will give us the firepower to meet evolving risks, expand our reach, and deepen the promise we make to every policyholder; that Regency Alliance will be there when it matters most,” the acting chairman of Regency Alliance, Mr Wale Taiwo (SAN), stated.
“We are particularly encouraged by the unwavering support of our shareholders who have stood by the company through its growth journey. We urge all eligible shareholders to take advantage of this rights issue and fully exercise their rights.
“By doing so, they will not only protect their investment from dilution but also participate directly in the exciting growth opportunities that lie ahead for Regency Alliance Insurance,” he added.
Also commenting, the Managing Director of the firm, Mr Bode Oseni, said, “Regency Alliance has always prided itself on being agile, customer-focused xd, and financially sound. The proceeds from this rights issue will accelerate our digital transformation, enhance claims efficiency, and enable us to introduce innovative products tailored to SMEs, Gen Z, and other underserved segments across Nigerian and beyond. We are not merely raising capital; we are raising our ambition.”
“We remain optimistic that our shareholders will embrace this opportunity and demonstrate their confidence in the company’s future by taking up their rights. Together, we are building a strong and more competitive insurance institution,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil palm processing firm, Okitipupa Plc, and two other securities weakened by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.4 per cent on Thursday, June 18.
During the trading day, Okitipupa Plc lost N20.00 to end at N280.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N300.00 per share, NASD Plc declined by 36 Kobo to finish at N37.00 per unit versus N37.36 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by 23 Kobo to N86.34 per share from N86.57 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation retreated by N10.39 billion to N2.609 trillion from N2.619 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 17.36 points to 4,361.09 points from 4,378.45 points.
Business Post reports that the sole price gainer for the session was Afriland Properties Plc, which improved by 65 Kobo to N16.20 per unit from N15.55 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by market participants shrank by 71.6 per cent to 792,835 units from Wednesday’s 2.8 million units, the value of securities fell by 61.8 per cent to N49.0 million from N128.3 million, while the number of deals went down by 39.4 per cent to 20 deals from 33 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.7 million units traded for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira free-fall against the US Dollar continued in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 18, losing 0.24 per cent or N3.23 to trade at N1,363.30/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,360.07/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N19.12 to trade at N1,805.69/£1 versus midweek’s N1,824.81/£1, and gained N12.89 on the Euro to sell at N1,565.07/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,577.96/€1.
At the GTBank FX counter, the Naira lost N1 against the Dollar to trade at N1,373/$1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,372/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
Tightness in FX liquidity continued to pressure the local currency, contributing to a decline in the official exchange rate due to rising demand for foreign payments.
Analysts also attribute the market liquidity dynamics to the lack of substantial Open Market Operation (OMO) bill positioning by foreign portfolio investors, who are key sources of hard currency inflows for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The apex bank’s daily FX report revealed that interbank FX turnover increased to $69.918 million across 85 interbank transactions, up from $54.293 million the previous day.
As for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $63,000 after losing 1.7 per cent to close at $62,742.28 on Thursday, as risk assets sold off worldwide, erasing the gains it made earlier in the week on the back of the US-Iran peace deal.
The pressure came from a wider retreat in markets as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal under the signed US-Iran deal and eased what had been a historic supply shock.
Attention now turns to talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, with Vice President JD Vance saying a 60-day clock to settle the deal’s details has started.
During the session, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.3 per cent to $68.68, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 2.7 per cent to $1.13, Cardano (ADA) slid 2.4 per cent to $0.1606, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 2.0 per cent to $576.11, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.9 per cent to $0.0826, and Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.7 per cent to $1,696.74.
However, TRON (TRX) improved by 0.1 per cent to $0.3204, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn