Economy
Why Nigeria May Hike Pump Price, Raise Interest Rate, Devalue Naira in 2019
By FSDH Research
Certain key events, both at the global level and in Nigeria, will influence economic and business activities in 2019.
FSDH Research examines a few of these events and discusses the implications for businesses and investments in Nigeria.
The expected hike in interest rates in major advanced countries will lead to an increase in global yields and may put pressure on currency in Nigeria.
There are strong indications that the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank will increase interest rates in 2019. The expected increase in the interest rate in the international market may also lead to an increase in the interest rate in Nigeria because of monetary policy adjustments to reduce capital flight.
Nigeria may lose a substantial amount of its projected crude oil revenue due to a limit on crude oil production and the drop in the global crude oil price. This may also lead to a drop in the supply of foreign exchange into Nigeria, resulting in a possible depreciation or devaluation of the Naira.
Nigerian businesses should look for local alternatives, where possible, for the raw materials needed for their production process.
They should also limit or eliminate foreign debt, particularly if they do not have foreign exchange receivables to mitigate the possible foreign exchange risk.
FSDH Research also advises that businesses should put in place appropriate foreign exchange hedging strategies. The Q3 2018 Balance of Payment (BoP) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published shows that earnings from crude oil and gas accounted for 94.4 percent of total export earnings during the period.
The external trade report that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published for Q3 2018 shows that crude oil exports accounted for 85 percent of total exports. Therefore, any adverse movement in crude oil price or production has high negative implications on the Nigerian economy.
Although FSDH Research expects the general election in 2019 to be peaceful, its outcome will determine economic activity and business in Nigeria.
A peaceful election will ensure stability of the Nigerian economy and pave the way for the flow of investments, both Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) into Nigeria. Certain longterm business and investment decisions may be taken immediately after the election if the current government retains power.
However, if there is a change in power, investors may wait until after the presidential inauguration on May 29 before they take long-term investment decisions, to give them enough time to access details of the policies of the incoming government.
There are certain macroeconomic realities that the Nigerian government must contend with in 2019.
FSDH Research believes the fiscal deficit in 2019 may be higher than in 2018, and higher than what is projected for the year 2019. In order to execute certain plans that will move the economy forward, government may have to increase borrowing or partner with private sector operators on key projects.
An increase in borrowing will increase the interest rate, while partnership with the private sector will expand economic activity and create new job opportunities.
Already, the ratio of government’s debt service to revenue is high and at an unsustainable level. Therefore, additional debt, in an environment of rising interest rates, may reduce government’s ability to execute critical programmes that will improve the business environment.
While fixed income investors may enjoy higher yields in 2019 than in 2018, businesses may suffer under rising interest costs.
FSDH Research analysis shows that electricity and the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are two key prices that government will need to adjust in 2019 to free up funds for developmental purposes.
The adjustment may increase the inflation rate in the short-term, but it will benefit the economy in the long-term. More investments are required in the power sector than are currently available.
However, the sector may not attract investment in the absence of a cost-reflective tariff. Government already allows an off-grid power supply arrangement based on ‘willing buyer, willing seller’. The tariff at which this arrangement is settled is higher than the tariff for the power from on-grid supply. Appropriate policy responses from government and strategies from the business community may ameliorate the likely negative impacts of these key events in 2019.
Economy
Brent Nears $110 on Stalled Diplomacy, Tight Global Supply
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent futures gained $2.90 or 2.8 per cent to trade at $108.23 a barrel on Monday as peace talks between the United States and Iran stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.97 or 2.1 per cent to $96.37 per barrel after Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but insisted US nuclear talks be postponed, a condition the Americans are unlikely to accept.
Iran presented the proposal through regional mediators to reopen the waterway and move toward ending the war first, while postponing nuclear negotiations. The proposal would separate shipping security from the dispute over uranium enrichment, where negotiations have deadlocked.
The stalled negotiations are leading to fears for the global economy as both nations are no closer to a lasting truce after US President Donald Trump cancelled American participation in talks with Iran.
President Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with Iran with his top national security aides, with the conflict currently in a stalemate and energy supplies from the Middle East region reduced.
The market is also beginning to price the supply story beyond crude. Higher petrol and heating oil prices are feeding concern that the conflict is moving into transport, manufacturing, and consumer costs.
At least seven ships – mainly dry bulk vessels – have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, in line with muted activity in recent days. That represents a fraction of the average 140 daily passages before the Iran war began on February 28, when around 20 per cent of global oil supplies passed through the strait.
In addition, six tankers loaded with Iranian oil have been forced back to Iran by the US blockade in recent days.
Also, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the Iranian people for battling to stay independent in the face of US and Israeli pressure and said Russia would do all it could to help Iran.
Major global central banks are set to hold interest rates steady this week.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Thursday, with a ceasefire easing the pressure on it for an immediate interest rate hike. Higher interest rates increase consumer borrowing costs, which can reduce economic growth and oil demand.
Traders are betting that the US Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all maintain rates at current levels.
Economy
Stocks Sheds 0.94% on Commencement of NGX Extended Market Session
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.94 per cent loss on Monday, April 27, 2026, which marked the commencement of an extended market session.
A few weeks ago, it was announced that trading activities on Customs Street would now be from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm instead of the usual 9:30 am to 2:30 pm.
This action was taken to allow market participants more time to explore the bourse and further make it robust, especially after the restoration of Nigeria’s frontier market status by FTSE Russell.
The NGX came under selling pressure, which resulted in 35 equities finishing on the gainers’ chart and 40 equities ending on the losers’ table, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
Trans-Nationwide Express, First Holdco, and UBA were the worst-performing equities after giving up 10.00 per cent each to trade at N7.11, N67.50, and N49.50, respectively. Access Holdings depreciated by 9.90 per cent to N28.20, and Fidelity Bank crashed by 9.87 per cent to N20.10.
The best-performing equity for the session was Abbey Mortgage Bank, which gained 9.26 per cent to N5.90, Zichis went up by 8.91 per cent to N16.99, Wema Bank expanded by 8.80 per cent to N34.00, NPF Microfinance Bank soared by 8.19 per cent to N5.68, and Coronation Insurance grew by 7.27 per cent to N2.66.
It was observed that the profit-taking was mainly from banking stocks, as the index shed 6.49 per cent. The consumer goods sector lost 0.41 per cent, and the energy counter depreciated by 0.24 per cent.
However, the industrial goods space improved by 0.85 per cent, and the insurance segment appreciated by 0.15 per cent.
But at the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 2,120.20 points to 223,602.29 points from 225,722.49 points, and the market capitalisation shrank by N1.365 trillion to N143.970 trillion from N145.335 trillion.
A total of 678.2 million shares worth N44.1 billion were traded in 82,838 deals on Monday compared with 627.6 million shares valued at 44.5 billion transacted in 55,232 deals last Friday, representing a drop in the trading value by 0.90 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and number of deals by 8.06 per cent and 49.98 per cent, respectively.
Zenith Bank was at the zenith of the activity chart yesterday with 76.1 million units sold for N9.5 billion. Wema Bank traded 49.9 million units worth N1.7 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 39.1 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Tantalizers transacted 30.0 million units worth N113.9 million, and AIICO Insurance traded 28.3 million units valued at N118.3 million.
Economy
Nigeria Boosts Oil Theft Curbing with Naval Drill
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has ramped up efforts to secure its oil-rich waters and curb maritime crime, deploying significant naval assets under Exercise Obangame Express 2026 to protect critical energy infrastructure and trade routes in the Gulf of Guinea.
Flagging off the exercise in Onne, Rivers State, the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas, said the exercise is central to safeguarding economic assets and sustaining investor confidence in Nigeria’s maritime domain.
“The safer maritime environment has enhanced investor confidence, increased shipping activities and supports the Federal Government’s drive towards a sustainable blue economy,” he said in a statement.
The multinational exercise, coordinated with the United States Africa Command, focuses on combating oil theft, piracy, illegal trafficking and other threats that directly impact Nigeria’s oil revenues and regional trade flows.
The focus on maritime security comes amid persistent concerns over crude oil theft and supply chain disruptions, which continue to undermine Nigeria’s production capacity.
Mr Abbas emphasised that coordinated regional efforts remain the most effective response to evolving threats.
“OBANGAME EXPRESS provides a unique opportunity for participating nations to train together, operate together and build the trust necessary for real-time coordination,” he said.
He added that no country can independently secure its maritime domain, stressing the need for sustained partnerships to protect the Gulf’s strategic energy corridor.
Also, the Commander, Eastern Naval Command, Rear Admiral CD Okehie, said the operation reflects a strategic shift toward protecting high-value maritime assets.
“The Gulf of Guinea serves as a major global sea lane of commerce, making it indispensable not only to regional economies but also to international trade,” he noted.
According to him, the Navy’s deployment of 10 ships, helicopters and special forces is designed to strengthen surveillance, interdiction and rapid response capabilities.
With Nigeria’s offshore assets and export routes forming a backbone of national revenue, the exercise signals a renewed push to tighten security, reduce losses and stabilise the broader oil and gas ecosystem.
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