Economy
Why Nigeria May Hike Pump Price, Raise Interest Rate, Devalue Naira in 2019
By FSDH Research
Certain key events, both at the global level and in Nigeria, will influence economic and business activities in 2019.
FSDH Research examines a few of these events and discusses the implications for businesses and investments in Nigeria.
The expected hike in interest rates in major advanced countries will lead to an increase in global yields and may put pressure on currency in Nigeria.
There are strong indications that the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank will increase interest rates in 2019. The expected increase in the interest rate in the international market may also lead to an increase in the interest rate in Nigeria because of monetary policy adjustments to reduce capital flight.
Nigeria may lose a substantial amount of its projected crude oil revenue due to a limit on crude oil production and the drop in the global crude oil price. This may also lead to a drop in the supply of foreign exchange into Nigeria, resulting in a possible depreciation or devaluation of the Naira.
Nigerian businesses should look for local alternatives, where possible, for the raw materials needed for their production process.
They should also limit or eliminate foreign debt, particularly if they do not have foreign exchange receivables to mitigate the possible foreign exchange risk.
FSDH Research also advises that businesses should put in place appropriate foreign exchange hedging strategies. The Q3 2018 Balance of Payment (BoP) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published shows that earnings from crude oil and gas accounted for 94.4 percent of total export earnings during the period.
The external trade report that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published for Q3 2018 shows that crude oil exports accounted for 85 percent of total exports. Therefore, any adverse movement in crude oil price or production has high negative implications on the Nigerian economy.
Although FSDH Research expects the general election in 2019 to be peaceful, its outcome will determine economic activity and business in Nigeria.
A peaceful election will ensure stability of the Nigerian economy and pave the way for the flow of investments, both Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) into Nigeria. Certain longterm business and investment decisions may be taken immediately after the election if the current government retains power.
However, if there is a change in power, investors may wait until after the presidential inauguration on May 29 before they take long-term investment decisions, to give them enough time to access details of the policies of the incoming government.
There are certain macroeconomic realities that the Nigerian government must contend with in 2019.
FSDH Research believes the fiscal deficit in 2019 may be higher than in 2018, and higher than what is projected for the year 2019. In order to execute certain plans that will move the economy forward, government may have to increase borrowing or partner with private sector operators on key projects.
An increase in borrowing will increase the interest rate, while partnership with the private sector will expand economic activity and create new job opportunities.
Already, the ratio of government’s debt service to revenue is high and at an unsustainable level. Therefore, additional debt, in an environment of rising interest rates, may reduce government’s ability to execute critical programmes that will improve the business environment.
While fixed income investors may enjoy higher yields in 2019 than in 2018, businesses may suffer under rising interest costs.
FSDH Research analysis shows that electricity and the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are two key prices that government will need to adjust in 2019 to free up funds for developmental purposes.
The adjustment may increase the inflation rate in the short-term, but it will benefit the economy in the long-term. More investments are required in the power sector than are currently available.
However, the sector may not attract investment in the absence of a cost-reflective tariff. Government already allows an off-grid power supply arrangement based on ‘willing buyer, willing seller’. The tariff at which this arrangement is settled is higher than the tariff for the power from on-grid supply. Appropriate policy responses from government and strategies from the business community may ameliorate the likely negative impacts of these key events in 2019.
Economy
Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.
In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.
He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”
The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.
“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”
According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”
He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”
“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.
“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.
“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.
“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.
Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”
Economy
Pathway Advisors Closes Fresh N16.76bn Oversubscribed Veritasi Homes CP
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pathway Advisors Limited, an issuing house and financial advisory firm, has announced the successful completion of the Series 2 Commercial Paper issuance for Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc.
The Series 2 offer, issued under Veritasi Homes’ newly registered N20.00 billion Commercial Paper Programme, raised N16.76 billion, significantly above its initial N12.00 billion target on the back of strong institutional demand.
This issuance builds on the company’s track record in the Nigerian debt capital market and follows the recently concluded N10 billion 3-year 20 per cent Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond Issuance, further reinforcing investor confidence in Veritasi Homes’ strong credit profile.
The 364-day tenor instrument attracted robust participation from a diverse pool of institutional investors, underscoring sustained confidence in the Company’s financial strength, operating model, and governance standards.
Commenting on the deal, the Founder/CEO of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade (MBA, FCA, M.CIod), noted that the outcome further validates investor appetite for well-structured transactions in the Nigerian capital market.
“The strong oversubscription speaks to the market’s confidence in Veritasi Homes’ performance, governance, and repayment track record. We are pleased to continue supporting issuers with strong fundamentals in accessing efficient funding.’’
He further highlighted that Veritasi Homes’ consistent market activities since 2022, including successful issuances and full redemption of matured obligations, continue to strengthen its reputation among institutional investors.
“Pathway Advisors Limited remains committed to maintaining its leadership position within Nigeria’s capital markets through the origination and execution of transformative, value-driven, and commercially viable transactions by deploying innovative financial solutions and facilitating strategic capital formation across critical sectors.
“We are committed to supporting credible corporates in accessing efficient short-term and long-term financing solutions within the Nigerian capital market,” he said in a statement on Monday.
Speaking on the transaction, the Managing Director/CEO of Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc, Mr Nola Adetola, described the outcome as a strong endorsement of the company’s fundamentals.
“This result reflects the resilience of our business model, our growing market reputation, and the continued trust of the investment community. We are grateful to all institutional investors for their confidence in Veritasi Homes.”
He added that the proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to support the company’s working capital requirements, enhance liquidity, and complete the ongoing development activities across its real estate portfolio.
Mr Adetola also commended Pathway Advisors Limited for its advisory and arranging role in the successful execution of the transaction.
Economy
SEC Okays Migration to T+1 Settlement Cycle for Capital Market Transactions
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.
This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.
The T+ settlement cycle is the number of working days required to complete a capital market transaction, such as the trading of securities, shares, and others, from the first day the trade was executed by an investor.
In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”
Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.
The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.
“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.
It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”
SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.
“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.
The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.
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