Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation to Hit 12% in 2019—Fitch

By Dipo Olowookere
Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has said the path to full economic stability and recovery for the Nigerian economy is very rough.
In a statement affirming the nation’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’, Fitch said weak party discipline in parliament and frequent disagreements between the presidency and legislature point to a continued high risk of delays to parliamentary approval of key legislation.
The rating firm said it expects policy continuity with the implementation of only piecemeal reforms, resulting in slow progress on tackling long-standing impediments to growth and weaknesses in macroeconomic management.
While it projected that inflation will average close to 12 percent in 2019-2020, well above the projected current ‘B’ median of 4.8 percent, propped up by cost-push factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is anticipated to average 2.2 percent in 2019-2020, below its previous 10-year average of 4.2 percent and the current ‘B’ median of 3.4 percent.
Business Post reports that in April 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s inflation rose to 11.37 percent year-on-year from 11.25 percent year-on-year in March 2019.
Fitch noted that high unemployment and inflation will constrain private consumption while investment is held back by tight credit supply, a weak business climate and regulatory uncertainty in the oil sector.
It said a large infrastructure deficit, which is illustrated by acute power supply shortages and security challenges, also dampen the medium-term growth outlook.
The renowned rating agency disclosed that Nigeria’s ratings are supported by the large size of its economy, a track record of current account surpluses and a relatively low general government (GG) debt-to-GDP.
“This is balanced against poor governance and development indicators, structurally low fiscal revenues and high dependence on hydrocarbons. The rating is also weighed down by subdued GDP growth and inflation that is higher than in rating peers,” it said.
Continuing, it stated that Nigeria’s fiscal performance mostly remains a function of fluctuations in oil revenues, noting that the implicit subsidy of petrol prices (around 0.6% of GDP in 2018), the gradual clearance of joint-venture (JV) cash call arrears (outstanding stock of 1% of GDP at end-2018) and the conversion of government oil proceeds to naira at a below-market exchange rate continue to constrain budget receipts from hydrocarbon extraction.
“Fitch estimates that the GG deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP (federal government, FGN: 2.3% excluding transfers to state and local governments, SLGs) in 2018 from 4.5% in 2017 (FGN: 3.2%), mostly reflecting the recovery in oil prices.
“Fitch forecasts the GG deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP (FGN: 2.6%) in 2019 and further to 4.6% in 2020 (FGN: 3%) as the rise in oil production with the coming on stream of the Egina oilfield will be offset by the decline in oil prices under our baseline. Public finances are vulnerable to disruptions to production caused by recurrent acts of vandalism or other force majeure affecting Nigeria’s aging oil infrastructure. A $10 change per barrel in the Brent oil price against our assumptions would, all else equal, impact the GG balance by around 0.6% of GDP.
“Nigeria’s particularly low non-oil fiscal revenues averaging only 3.7% of GDP over 2016-2018 are a key rating weakness, reducing the fiscal space and resulting in a high fiscal Brent breakeven price of USD129 per barrel in 2019 and USD149 in 2020, according to Fitch’s estimates. A two-thirds rise in the minimum wage entered into force in April and could cause pressures on public finances, particularly for cash-strapped SLGs, although there is high uncertainty regarding its effective implementation date and fiscal cost. The government is contemplating offsetting measures, including a VAT rate increase, which faces strong opposition across the political spectrum.
“Interest payments consumed 27% of GG revenues (FGN: 53%) in 2018 based on Fitch’s estimates, double the current ‘B’ median of 13% and will rise to 30% of revenues (FGN: 65.6%) in 2020, highlighting the risks to debt sustainability arising from low fiscal receipts. The authorities aim to contain the rise in the interest cost by substituting external concessional and commercial borrowing to onerous domestic financing. They also plan to reduce debt through partial privatisations of oil JV assets, which we do not expect to materially reduce their oil revenues.
“GG debt will rise from 25% of GDP (FGN: 20%, including central bank overdrafts) in 2018 to 28.2% of GDP (FGN: 22.4%) in 2020, still well below the projected current ‘B’ median of 56%, under Fitch’s forecasts. Around 71% of GG debt was naira-denominated at end-2018, limiting refinancing and exchange rate risks but high direct and indirect foreign holdings of local-currency debt expose Nigeria to shifts in investor sentiment and global funding conditions. The debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) of 3.2% of GDP at end-2018 constitutes a contingent liability for the sovereign, and could rise in the context of high non-performing loans in the banking sector of 11.7% of total bank loans and an elevated proportion of restructured loans,” a statement from the agency said.
Economy
PAC Capital Promises Transformative Financial Solutions

Aduragbemi Omiyale
A Nigerian-based investment banking and advisory company, PAC Capital Limited, has promised transformative financial solutions that not only meet but exceed expectations of its clients.
This assurance was given by the Executive Director of PAC Capital, Mr Bolarinwa Sanni, after the firm was named as the Best Transaction Advisory Firm – Nigeria 2025 by the International Business Magazine Awards.
The award was in recognition of its consistent track record in structuring and executing high-impact transactions across various sectors, including infrastructure, energy, transport, and financial services.
This international recognition highlights the organisation’s commitment to excellence, innovation, and delivering value-driven advisory services.
“Winning this award reflects the strength of our advisory team and the boldness of the clients we serve.
“At PAC Capital, we are committed to delivering transformative financial solutions that not only meet but exceed expectations.
“This recognition inspires us to keep pushing boundaries and shaping Africa’s investment landscape,” Mr Sanni stated.
Also, the Managing Director of PAC Capital, Mr Humphrey Oriakhi, said, “This award is a strong validation of our efforts to lead with insight, integrity, and innovation in the transaction advisory space.
“We are truly honoured to be acknowledged on a global platform. I dedicate this achievement to our clients who trust us with their most strategic decisions and to our team whose dedication fuels our success.”
Economy
Ecobank CEO Calls for Increase Intra African Trade to Cushion Tariffs Impact

By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, Mr. Jeremy Awori, has called for an increase in intra-trade among African countries in response to recent tariff announcements by the US President, Mr Donald Trump.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Mr Awori noted that Mr Trump’s tariffs would replace the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which about 30 African nations have relied on to develop export-driven industries, including textiles and apparel.
“Now more than ever we should be focusing as African countries on how do we trade more together, how do we create an easier framework for us to trade,” he said.
In 2023, sub-Saharan Africa exported $29 billion worth of goods to the U.S., making it the region’s fourth-largest market after China, the United Arab Emirates, and India.
According to him, while the US is not Africa’s biggest trading partner, the continent’s economies could still face indirect repercussions if the tariffs lead major partners like China to reduce demand for African exports.
The tariffs imposed on African nations vary widely, ranging from 10 per cent for countries like Benin, Kenya, and Cape Verde to as high as 50 per cent for Lesotho—the highest rate applied to any sovereign nation. Nigeria was hit with 14 per cent.
Mr Awori pointed out that the trade tensions reinforced the urgency for African nations to fast-track the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which came into effect in October 2022.
He added that fully implementing the free trade accord and adding value to raw materials will ensure that the continent keeps “more of the benefits, creates more jobs and uplifts the lives and livelihoods of Africans.”
He emphasised that beyond tariff reductions, Africa must address non-tariff barriers such as restrictive visa policies and logistical challenges faced by landlocked countries.
The lender’s CEO noted that the new tariffs follow President Trump’s earlier decision to freeze aid to Africa, which Ecobank research suggests could push an additional six million people into extreme poverty.
Economy
Debt Servicing Gulps N13.12trn in 2024 Versus N12.3trn Allocated in Budget

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) showed that the Nigerian government used about N13.12 trillion to service the various debts in 2024.
Business Post reports that this was 68 per cent higher than the N7.8 trillion paid by Nigeria to pay interests on debts in 2023 and higher than the N12.3 trillion approved by the National Assembly for last in the 2024 Appropriation Act.
Over the weekend, the DMO revealed that the total debt of the country as of December 31, 2024, stood at N144.67 trillion versus N97.34 trillion a year earlier.
This comprised an external debt of N70.29 trillion and a domestic debt N74.38 trillion.
The agency stated that the significant increase in the debt service was due higher interest rates and increased domestic borrowing as well as rising global interest rates and the depreciation of the Naira, which has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service.
About N5.97 trillion was used to funds borrowed by the government from domestic investors, higher than the N5.23 trillion used for the same purpose in 2023 by 14.15 per cent, while N7.15 trillion was used for paying interest on foreign loans, higher than the N2.57 trillion in 2023 by 167 per cent.
Analysis showed that about N4.69 trillion was paid to local investors for giving the federal government money to fund the 2024 budget deficit from the sale of FGN bonds at the local capital market versus the N3.66 trillion recorded a year earlier.
Following the FGN bonds was treasury bills, which recorded the use of N747.15 billion for the payment of interest to investors compared with N326.12 billion in 2023.
Debt servicing for FGN Sukuk gulped N158.43 billion last year, the sum of N6.38 billion was used to pay interest to investors who subscribed to the monthly FGN savings bonds, and N2.18 billion was for FGN green bonds, with N265.86 billion for promissory note principal repayments.
In the 2025 budget, the federal government has allocated about N16 trillion for debt servicing.
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