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Nigeria’s Inflation to Hit 12% in 2019—Fitch

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By Dipo Olowookere

Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has said the path to full economic stability and recovery for the Nigerian economy is very rough.

In a statement affirming the nation’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’, Fitch said weak party discipline in parliament and frequent disagreements between the presidency and legislature point to a continued high risk of delays to parliamentary approval of key legislation.

The rating firm said it expects policy continuity with the implementation of only piecemeal reforms, resulting in slow progress on tackling long-standing impediments to growth and weaknesses in macroeconomic management.

While it projected that inflation will average close to 12 percent in 2019-2020, well above the projected current ‘B’ median of 4.8 percent, propped up by cost-push factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is anticipated to average 2.2 percent in 2019-2020, below its previous 10-year average of 4.2 percent and the current ‘B’ median of 3.4 percent.

Business Post reports that in April 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s inflation rose to 11.37 percent year-on-year from 11.25 percent year-on-year in March 2019.

Fitch noted that high unemployment and inflation will constrain private consumption while investment is held back by tight credit supply, a weak business climate and regulatory uncertainty in the oil sector.

It said a large infrastructure deficit, which is illustrated by acute power supply shortages and security challenges, also dampen the medium-term growth outlook.

The renowned rating agency disclosed that Nigeria’s ratings are supported by the large size of its economy, a track record of current account surpluses and a relatively low general government (GG) debt-to-GDP.

“This is balanced against poor governance and development indicators, structurally low fiscal revenues and high dependence on hydrocarbons. The rating is also weighed down by subdued GDP growth and inflation that is higher than in rating peers,” it said.

Continuing, it stated that Nigeria’s fiscal performance mostly remains a function of fluctuations in oil revenues, noting that the implicit subsidy of petrol prices (around 0.6% of GDP in 2018), the gradual clearance of joint-venture (JV) cash call arrears (outstanding stock of 1% of GDP at end-2018) and the conversion of government oil proceeds to naira at a below-market exchange rate continue to constrain budget receipts from hydrocarbon extraction.

“Fitch estimates that the GG deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP (federal government, FGN: 2.3% excluding transfers to state and local governments, SLGs) in 2018 from 4.5% in 2017 (FGN: 3.2%), mostly reflecting the recovery in oil prices.

“Fitch forecasts the GG deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP (FGN: 2.6%) in 2019 and further to 4.6% in 2020 (FGN: 3%) as the rise in oil production with the coming on stream of the Egina oilfield will be offset by the decline in oil prices under our baseline. Public finances are vulnerable to disruptions to production caused by recurrent acts of vandalism or other force majeure affecting Nigeria’s aging oil infrastructure. A $10 change per barrel in the Brent oil price against our assumptions would, all else equal, impact the GG balance by around 0.6% of GDP.

“Nigeria’s particularly low non-oil fiscal revenues averaging only 3.7% of GDP over 2016-2018 are a key rating weakness, reducing the fiscal space and resulting in a high fiscal Brent breakeven price of USD129 per barrel in 2019 and USD149 in 2020, according to Fitch’s estimates. A two-thirds rise in the minimum wage entered into force in April and could cause pressures on public finances, particularly for cash-strapped SLGs, although there is high uncertainty regarding its effective implementation date and fiscal cost. The government is contemplating offsetting measures, including a VAT rate increase, which faces strong opposition across the political spectrum.

“Interest payments consumed 27% of GG revenues (FGN: 53%) in 2018 based on Fitch’s estimates, double the current ‘B’ median of 13% and will rise to 30% of revenues (FGN: 65.6%) in 2020, highlighting the risks to debt sustainability arising from low fiscal receipts. The authorities aim to contain the rise in the interest cost by substituting external concessional and commercial borrowing to onerous domestic financing. They also plan to reduce debt through partial privatisations of oil JV assets, which we do not expect to materially reduce their oil revenues.

“GG debt will rise from 25% of GDP (FGN: 20%, including central bank overdrafts) in 2018 to 28.2% of GDP (FGN: 22.4%) in 2020, still well below the projected current ‘B’ median of 56%, under Fitch’s forecasts. Around 71% of GG debt was naira-denominated at end-2018, limiting refinancing and exchange rate risks but high direct and indirect foreign holdings of local-currency debt expose Nigeria to shifts in investor sentiment and global funding conditions. The debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) of 3.2% of GDP at end-2018 constitutes a contingent liability for the sovereign, and could rise in the context of high non-performing loans in the banking sector of 11.7% of total bank loans and an elevated proportion of restructured loans,” a statement from the agency said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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