Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation to Hit 12% in 2019—Fitch
By Dipo Olowookere
Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has said the path to full economic stability and recovery for the Nigerian economy is very rough.
In a statement affirming the nation’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’, Fitch said weak party discipline in parliament and frequent disagreements between the presidency and legislature point to a continued high risk of delays to parliamentary approval of key legislation.
The rating firm said it expects policy continuity with the implementation of only piecemeal reforms, resulting in slow progress on tackling long-standing impediments to growth and weaknesses in macroeconomic management.
While it projected that inflation will average close to 12 percent in 2019-2020, well above the projected current ‘B’ median of 4.8 percent, propped up by cost-push factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is anticipated to average 2.2 percent in 2019-2020, below its previous 10-year average of 4.2 percent and the current ‘B’ median of 3.4 percent.
Business Post reports that in April 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s inflation rose to 11.37 percent year-on-year from 11.25 percent year-on-year in March 2019.
Fitch noted that high unemployment and inflation will constrain private consumption while investment is held back by tight credit supply, a weak business climate and regulatory uncertainty in the oil sector.
It said a large infrastructure deficit, which is illustrated by acute power supply shortages and security challenges, also dampen the medium-term growth outlook.
The renowned rating agency disclosed that Nigeria’s ratings are supported by the large size of its economy, a track record of current account surpluses and a relatively low general government (GG) debt-to-GDP.
“This is balanced against poor governance and development indicators, structurally low fiscal revenues and high dependence on hydrocarbons. The rating is also weighed down by subdued GDP growth and inflation that is higher than in rating peers,” it said.
Continuing, it stated that Nigeria’s fiscal performance mostly remains a function of fluctuations in oil revenues, noting that the implicit subsidy of petrol prices (around 0.6% of GDP in 2018), the gradual clearance of joint-venture (JV) cash call arrears (outstanding stock of 1% of GDP at end-2018) and the conversion of government oil proceeds to naira at a below-market exchange rate continue to constrain budget receipts from hydrocarbon extraction.
“Fitch estimates that the GG deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP (federal government, FGN: 2.3% excluding transfers to state and local governments, SLGs) in 2018 from 4.5% in 2017 (FGN: 3.2%), mostly reflecting the recovery in oil prices.
“Fitch forecasts the GG deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP (FGN: 2.6%) in 2019 and further to 4.6% in 2020 (FGN: 3%) as the rise in oil production with the coming on stream of the Egina oilfield will be offset by the decline in oil prices under our baseline. Public finances are vulnerable to disruptions to production caused by recurrent acts of vandalism or other force majeure affecting Nigeria’s aging oil infrastructure. A $10 change per barrel in the Brent oil price against our assumptions would, all else equal, impact the GG balance by around 0.6% of GDP.
“Nigeria’s particularly low non-oil fiscal revenues averaging only 3.7% of GDP over 2016-2018 are a key rating weakness, reducing the fiscal space and resulting in a high fiscal Brent breakeven price of USD129 per barrel in 2019 and USD149 in 2020, according to Fitch’s estimates. A two-thirds rise in the minimum wage entered into force in April and could cause pressures on public finances, particularly for cash-strapped SLGs, although there is high uncertainty regarding its effective implementation date and fiscal cost. The government is contemplating offsetting measures, including a VAT rate increase, which faces strong opposition across the political spectrum.
“Interest payments consumed 27% of GG revenues (FGN: 53%) in 2018 based on Fitch’s estimates, double the current ‘B’ median of 13% and will rise to 30% of revenues (FGN: 65.6%) in 2020, highlighting the risks to debt sustainability arising from low fiscal receipts. The authorities aim to contain the rise in the interest cost by substituting external concessional and commercial borrowing to onerous domestic financing. They also plan to reduce debt through partial privatisations of oil JV assets, which we do not expect to materially reduce their oil revenues.
“GG debt will rise from 25% of GDP (FGN: 20%, including central bank overdrafts) in 2018 to 28.2% of GDP (FGN: 22.4%) in 2020, still well below the projected current ‘B’ median of 56%, under Fitch’s forecasts. Around 71% of GG debt was naira-denominated at end-2018, limiting refinancing and exchange rate risks but high direct and indirect foreign holdings of local-currency debt expose Nigeria to shifts in investor sentiment and global funding conditions. The debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) of 3.2% of GDP at end-2018 constitutes a contingent liability for the sovereign, and could rise in the context of high non-performing loans in the banking sector of 11.7% of total bank loans and an elevated proportion of restructured loans,” a statement from the agency said.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
This news will surely excite local contractors with verified claims of N100 million or less, as the federal government has approved their payments.
This approval for the disbursement was given by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele.
This followed a verification and reconciliation exercise designed to ensure only validated claims qualify for payment.
The beneficiaries cover contractors across multiple ministries, departments and agencies. The release of the funds is expected to enable contractors to return to project sites, pay workers, settle suppliers and meet outstanding financial commitments.
In an announcement on Monday, the Federal Ministry of Finance also said this latest batch of payments would ease liquidity pressure on small businesses and accelerate economic activity nationwide.
It was noted that the payments for verified claims of N100 million below were strategically done to spread economic impact broadly rather than concentrate disbursements among a handful of large firms.
The payments form part of a broader push to clear inherited contractor obligations, with over N700 billion verified in recent months.
“For many beneficiaries, the release of funds represents more than a financial transaction. It provides the certainty needed to sustain operations, preserve jobs, complete ongoing projects, and contribute to economic recovery and growth,” the ministry said in a statement.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Lagos State is currently agog because of the high-profile guests in the city for the Invest in Lagos Summit 3.0 commencing today, Monday, June 8, 2026.
The programme, which ends tomorrow, is themed Lagos: Business Gateway to Africa. It will feature a line-up of sessions focused on Lagos as Africa’s Global Gateway, the Future of Technology and Innovation, Unlocking Investment, Building the Cities of the Future, Global Partnerships for Growth, Talent, Creativity and Culture, and Energy and Sustainability.
The event is being put together by the Lagos State government and Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC).
The venue of the summit, Eko Hotel and Suites, is already lively, with the Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu; the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele; the co-chair of the Lagos Finance and Investment Council (LFIC), Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede; and the chief executive of Moniepoint Incorporated, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, amongst others expected to speak.
The workshop is designed to position Lagos as Africa’s premier destination for investment, trade, innovation, infrastructure development, and economic partnerships.
It is focused on unlocking investment opportunities and accelerating sustainable economic growth. It will bring together high-level participants from across the public and private sectors to explore opportunities in technology, infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, finance, creative industries, and urban development.
According to the Lagos Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr Gbenga Omotoso, the programme has been carefully structured to move beyond conversations and focus on actionable outcomes that can stimulate investment inflows into Lagos State.
He said the conference will provide a platform to showcase the state’s investments in transportation, technology, energy, manufacturing, tourism, and urban development, while also highlighting opportunities for local and international investors.
“Invest in Lagos 3.0 is more than a conference; it is a strategic platform designed to connect investors with opportunities, facilitate meaningful partnerships, and showcase Lagos as Africa’s most attractive investment destination.
“Through this summit, we are bringing together government leaders, global investors, development institutions, and business executives to explore opportunities that will unlock growth, create jobs, and accelerate economic development across Lagos and Nigeria,” the Commissioner, who doubles as the Head of the Media Subcommittee, stated.
The gathering will also feature investment pitches by governors, exhibitions by participating organisations, networking opportunities, a gala dinner, and site visits to major infrastructure and industrial projects, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Lagos Free Zone, Lagos Port, and RusselSmith’s advanced manufacturing facility.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has expressed readiness to leverage the €59 million West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) as part of intensified efforts to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing while strengthening sustainable management of its marine resources.
The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, made this known in Abuja during a meeting with the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr Gautier Mignot, where both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening cooperation on maritime security and sustainable ocean governance.
Welcoming the EU Ambassador, Mr Oyetola commended the group for its longstanding partnership with Nigeria, particularly its support for maritime stability in the Gulf of Guinea, a region critical to global shipping and regional economic development.
He noted that the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) presents a timely opportunity to strengthen coordinated action against illegal fishing, improve ocean governance, and promote sustainable exploitation of marine resources across West Africa.
He said Nigeria is keen to fully engage with the programme to attract technical and financial support that will enhance enforcement capacity and boost the country’s blue economy ambitions.
The Minister stressed that illegal fishing remains a major threat to the marine ecosystem and coastal livelihoods, warning that IUU fishing continues to deplete fish stocks, undermine food security, and erode the economic well-being of coastal communities.
He said: “Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a direct threat to national security, food sovereignty, and the survival of our coastal communities. We cannot afford to stand by and watch our marine ecosystems be depleted and economic livelihoods eroded.
“We are calling for an era of stronger international collaboration, backed by aggressive monitoring and uncompromised enforcement systems, to permanently dismantle these illicit operations and safeguard our waters.”
Mr Oyetola also highlighted ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s maritime sector under the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy, which prioritises innovation, private sector investment, and sustainable development of ocean resources.
He referenced key milestones in the sector, including improvements in port operations and logistics, as well as enhanced maritime security.
He further noted that Nigeria is strengthening initiatives aimed at expanding its maritime infrastructure and improving competitiveness in global trade.
The Minister also reiterated the need for broader cooperation beyond piracy control, urging development partners to support Nigeria in addressing environmental crimes, human trafficking, and illegal fishing in a more integrated and coordinated manner.
He sought increased technical assistance from the European Union, particularly in surveillance systems, fisheries monitoring, and enforcement capacity to strengthen Nigeria’s ability to curb IUU fishing across the Gulf of Guinea.
On his part, Mr Mignot reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to strengthening maritime cooperation with Nigeria and supporting regional efforts to ensure safer and more sustainable oceans.
He highlighted the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP), a major EU-funded initiative designed to promote integrated ocean governance, sustainable fisheries management, and protection of coastal and marine ecosystems across West African countries.
According to him, the programme will support improved coordination among coastal states, strengthen enforcement mechanisms, and promote a more inclusive and sustainable blue economy in the region.
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