Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation to Hit 12% in 2019—Fitch
By Dipo Olowookere
Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has said the path to full economic stability and recovery for the Nigerian economy is very rough.
In a statement affirming the nation’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’, Fitch said weak party discipline in parliament and frequent disagreements between the presidency and legislature point to a continued high risk of delays to parliamentary approval of key legislation.
The rating firm said it expects policy continuity with the implementation of only piecemeal reforms, resulting in slow progress on tackling long-standing impediments to growth and weaknesses in macroeconomic management.
While it projected that inflation will average close to 12 percent in 2019-2020, well above the projected current ‘B’ median of 4.8 percent, propped up by cost-push factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is anticipated to average 2.2 percent in 2019-2020, below its previous 10-year average of 4.2 percent and the current ‘B’ median of 3.4 percent.
Business Post reports that in April 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s inflation rose to 11.37 percent year-on-year from 11.25 percent year-on-year in March 2019.
Fitch noted that high unemployment and inflation will constrain private consumption while investment is held back by tight credit supply, a weak business climate and regulatory uncertainty in the oil sector.
It said a large infrastructure deficit, which is illustrated by acute power supply shortages and security challenges, also dampen the medium-term growth outlook.
The renowned rating agency disclosed that Nigeria’s ratings are supported by the large size of its economy, a track record of current account surpluses and a relatively low general government (GG) debt-to-GDP.
“This is balanced against poor governance and development indicators, structurally low fiscal revenues and high dependence on hydrocarbons. The rating is also weighed down by subdued GDP growth and inflation that is higher than in rating peers,” it said.
Continuing, it stated that Nigeria’s fiscal performance mostly remains a function of fluctuations in oil revenues, noting that the implicit subsidy of petrol prices (around 0.6% of GDP in 2018), the gradual clearance of joint-venture (JV) cash call arrears (outstanding stock of 1% of GDP at end-2018) and the conversion of government oil proceeds to naira at a below-market exchange rate continue to constrain budget receipts from hydrocarbon extraction.
“Fitch estimates that the GG deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP (federal government, FGN: 2.3% excluding transfers to state and local governments, SLGs) in 2018 from 4.5% in 2017 (FGN: 3.2%), mostly reflecting the recovery in oil prices.
“Fitch forecasts the GG deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP (FGN: 2.6%) in 2019 and further to 4.6% in 2020 (FGN: 3%) as the rise in oil production with the coming on stream of the Egina oilfield will be offset by the decline in oil prices under our baseline. Public finances are vulnerable to disruptions to production caused by recurrent acts of vandalism or other force majeure affecting Nigeria’s aging oil infrastructure. A $10 change per barrel in the Brent oil price against our assumptions would, all else equal, impact the GG balance by around 0.6% of GDP.
“Nigeria’s particularly low non-oil fiscal revenues averaging only 3.7% of GDP over 2016-2018 are a key rating weakness, reducing the fiscal space and resulting in a high fiscal Brent breakeven price of USD129 per barrel in 2019 and USD149 in 2020, according to Fitch’s estimates. A two-thirds rise in the minimum wage entered into force in April and could cause pressures on public finances, particularly for cash-strapped SLGs, although there is high uncertainty regarding its effective implementation date and fiscal cost. The government is contemplating offsetting measures, including a VAT rate increase, which faces strong opposition across the political spectrum.
“Interest payments consumed 27% of GG revenues (FGN: 53%) in 2018 based on Fitch’s estimates, double the current ‘B’ median of 13% and will rise to 30% of revenues (FGN: 65.6%) in 2020, highlighting the risks to debt sustainability arising from low fiscal receipts. The authorities aim to contain the rise in the interest cost by substituting external concessional and commercial borrowing to onerous domestic financing. They also plan to reduce debt through partial privatisations of oil JV assets, which we do not expect to materially reduce their oil revenues.
“GG debt will rise from 25% of GDP (FGN: 20%, including central bank overdrafts) in 2018 to 28.2% of GDP (FGN: 22.4%) in 2020, still well below the projected current ‘B’ median of 56%, under Fitch’s forecasts. Around 71% of GG debt was naira-denominated at end-2018, limiting refinancing and exchange rate risks but high direct and indirect foreign holdings of local-currency debt expose Nigeria to shifts in investor sentiment and global funding conditions. The debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) of 3.2% of GDP at end-2018 constitutes a contingent liability for the sovereign, and could rise in the context of high non-performing loans in the banking sector of 11.7% of total bank loans and an elevated proportion of restructured loans,” a statement from the agency said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) says the rollout of electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) will strengthen tax compliance, curb revenue leakages and improve transparency in tax administration as it moves to fully digitise the country’s tax system.
The Project Lead for the NRS e-Invoicing Project, Mr Mohammed Bawa, stated this at the DigiTax E-Invoicing Compliance Breakfast Session held in Lagos on Wednesday.
The event, organised by DigiTax, an NRS-accredited e-invoicing platform, formed part of efforts to support the agency’s ongoing education and sensitisation campaign on the e-invoicing mandate.
Mr Bawa said the initiative aligns with global trends in tax digitisation and is expected to help improve Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, which remains one of the lowest in Africa.
According to him, the system will provide the NRS with greater visibility into transactions across sectors, formalise activities within the informal economy and standardise invoice formats nationwide using globally recognised invoice schemas.
He added that e-invoicing would improve operational efficiency for both businesses and tax authorities while supporting the NRS’ transition from manual and electronic tax administration processes to a fully automated system-to-system interaction model.
Mr Bawa noted that the legal framework for implementation is backed by the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, which prescribes penalties for non-compliance.
He disclosed that the NRS has completed onboarding large taxpayers and is preparing to enforce compliance with defaulting entities.
According to him, medium taxpayers are expected to begin compliance in the third quarter of 2026, while onboarding of emerging taxpayers will commence in 2027, with full adoption targeted for all taxpayers by the end of 2028.
Mr Bawa urged taxpayers yet to be onboarded onto the platform to begin the process and work with accredited service providers to ensure compliance.
On his part, Country Director of DigiTax Nigeria, Mr Olumide Akinsola, urged businesses to look beyond their internal systems and assess the compliance status of suppliers and counterparties.
He warned that businesses whose suppliers fail to transmit invoices through the MBS platform risk losing eligibility to claim Value Added Tax (VAT) input credits on such transactions, describing the resulting supply chain exposure as a significant commercial risk that many organisations have yet to quantify.
Mr Akinsola also announced the launch of DigiTax’s white paper, The State of E-Invoicing Readiness in Nigeria, which examines compliance adoption trends and the readiness gap across different taxpayer segments.
He added that DigiTax operates in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), noting that experience from those markets shows businesses that integrate early are better positioned to avoid disruptions when enforcement begins.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The names of about 100,000 companies registered by the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) are about to be deleted for inactivity, especially for failing to file their annual tax returns, Business Post reports.
This information was disclosed by the CAC via a notice signed by its management on Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
The list contains organisations like the Nigeria-Poland Chamber of Trade Invest Ltd, Alariwo of Afrika Ltd, Ovation Sports International, First Union Pension Fund Administrators, Investopedia Limited, Baptist High School Abuja Ltd, and Yobe Aluminium Manufacturing Industries Ltd, amongst others.
In the statement, the commission said its decision to strike off the names of the affected firms from the register aligns with the provisions of Section 692(3) (3) and (4) of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), 2020.
However, the affected companies can still salvage the situation by filing all outstanding annual returns and regularising their records within 90 days.
“Please note that companies that fail to comply within the stipulated timeline shall be struck off the register without further notice,” it declared, expressing its continued commitment to providing prompt and efficient registration and regulatory services to the satisfaction of its valued customers.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange gained 1.75 per cent on Wednesday, July 15, pushing the NASD Security Index (NSI) up by 74.20 points to 4,316.51 points from 4,242.31 points, as the market capitalisation added N44.54 billion to finish at N2.590 trillion compared with the preceding session’s N2.546 trillion.
During the session, there was an 11.5 per cent rise in the value of transactions at midweek to N72.7 million from the preceding session’s N65.2 million, as there was a 3.7 per cent growth in the number of deals to 28 deals from the previous session’s 27 deals, while the volume of securities slumped by 64.5 per cent to 4.9 million units from 13.7 million units.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended as the most active security by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, with the second spot occupied by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc after selling 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and the third position was taken by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which exchanged 74.3 million units for N5.3 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
Business Post reports that the market breadth index was negative yesterday, as there were two price gainers and three price losers.
11 Plc added N22.36 to its value to close at N250.00 per share versus N227.64 per share, and CSCS Plc improved by N7.95 to N90.35 per unit from N82.40 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N1.37 to end at N150.00 per share versus N151.37 per share, UBN Property Plc depreciated by 6 Kobo to N1.75 per unit from N1.81 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc dropped 1 Kobo to close at N2.49 per share versus N2.50 per share.
