Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has listed mainstreaming the Nigerian capital market into the economy as its top priority in 2025.
Mr Emomotimi Agama, the Director General of SEC, said this in his New Year message to the capital market community on Monday.
He also said the commission would intensify efforts to eliminate Ponzi and pyramid schemes, thereby fostering an environment for genuine investment opportunities to thrive in 2025.
He said that protecting investors remained a cornerstone of the commission’s mission.
Mr Agama also said that the commission would prioritise key initiatives aimed at deepening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence and driving economic growth.
According to him, “SEC is positioned with a dual mandate in regulating and developing the capital market in Nigeria.
“Naturally, our top priority in 2025 will cut across the dual mandate. For us, mainstreaming the Nigerian Capital Market into the economy is very vital.
“Enforcement is the backbone of effective regulation. We are revamping our investigative processes to enhance efficiency and hold bad actors accountable more decisively.
“Insider trading undermines activities and dampens market fairness. By revising our regulatory framework, we aim to strengthen detection, prevention, and accountability mechanisms.
“Transparency is at the heart of investors confidence and capital markets. We will introduce measures to ensure greater visibility and trust in securities transactions,” he stated.
The SEC director-general added that to resolve market disputes efficiently and fairly, the commission was focusing on enhancing the operations of the Investments and Securities Tribunal (IST).
He noted that these efforts aim to make the tribunal more effective in delivering timely resolutions, thereby improving overall efficiency in the process.
Mr Agama stated that key focus for the commission in 2025 is strengthening the legal framework of the commodities market to enable it attain its full potential of aiding economic development.
He said the commodities market is a major area of interest for SEC, adding that Nigeria is purely an agrarian nation.
The director-general said that taking that comparative advantage to the next level, is something that the commission is proud to be part of.
Mr Agama said this year, SEC would focus on reinforcing the legal and regulatory structures that support growth to create a solid foundation for the vibrant commodities ecosystem, be it soft or hard commodity.
“More so, when we have a plethora of commodities all over Nigeria. SEC as a partner in development will make sure that we make the difference,” he said.
Mr Agama also said that these initiatives reflect the commission’s vision for a stronger and more inclusive capital market in 2025, adding that SEC is committed to building wealth, instilling confidence and making impacts.
“As we embark on this journey, I invite all stakeholders to work with us in achieving these goals.
“Together, we can unlock the potentials of the Nigerian capital market and make this a defining year for our economy.
“What we intend to do, is to steer the capital market towards a direction that ensures that development gets to the doorstep of every Nigerian.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seven price gainers ensured that the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended the first trading week of the year 2025 in the positive territory, with a 0.55 per cent gain.
In the four-day trading week, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N9.74 billion to N1.046 trillion from the N1.036 trillion recorded in the last trading week of 2024, as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 16.74 points to finish at 3,052.34 points, in contrast to the 3,035.61 points achieved in Week 52 of last year.
Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc topped the advancers’ chart after it closed higher by 33.3 per cent to close at 20 Kobo per unit versus 15 Kobo per unit, UBN Property Plc grew by 10 per cent to end at N1.98 per share compared with the previous week’s N1.80 share and Air Liquide Plc also gained 10 per cent to end at N8.80 per unit against the former value of N8.00 per unit.
Further, 11 Plc rose by 7.9 per cent to N232.10 per share from N215.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc improved by 4.8 per cent to N23.05 per unit from N22.00 per unit, Food Concepts Plc jumped by 1.3 per cent to close at N1.60 per share versus N1.58 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc appreciated by 0.8 per cent to N4.89 per unit versus N4.85 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc shed 9.3 per cent to N39.76 per share from N43.84 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc depreciated by 9.1 per cent to N1.40 per unit from N1.54 per unit.
Last week, the volume of equities transacted went down by 41.8 per cent to 12.44 million units from 21.37 million units, the value of securities traded by investors slumped by 46.7 per cent to N61.62 million from N115.8 million, and the number of deals declined by 30.99 per cent to 49 deals from 71 deals.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc was the busiest stock in the week by value with N55.8 million, IGI Plc recorded N2.1 million, 11 Plc posted N1.5 million, CSCS Plc traded N1.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc recorded N0.59 million.
By volume, IGI Plc topped with 55.8 million units, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc transacted 1.4 million units, UBN Property Plc recorded 0.276 million, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 0.120 million units, and CSCS Plc exchanged 0.047 million units.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigerians may soon begin to purchase petroleum products at the retail stations of Heyden Petroleum and Ardova Plc across Nigeria at lower prices.
This is because the two players in the nation’s downstream petroleum sector have entered into a bulk purchase agreement with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Recall that a few weeks ago, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc sealed a deal with Dangote Refinery, enabling it to sell premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, at N935 per litre across all its stations nationwide, addressing the long-standing issue of price disparities between states.
This action pushed the share price of MRS Oil at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to a new 52-week high last Friday, as investors became increasingly optimistic about the company’s future earnings prospects.
Propelled by the economic relief provided by President Bola Tinubu’s crude-for-naira swap initiative, Ardova Plc and Heyden Petroleum agreed to join Dangote Refinery to bring down the prices of petroleum products.
Reports indicate that the bulk purchase agreement with Dangote Petroleum Refinery will enable both Ardova and Heyden to secure a reliable and consistent supply of petroleum products from the world’s largest single-train refinery, ensuring a stable supply of fuel at competitive prices, benefiting consumers across the country.
The arrangement ensures that Ardova and Heyden will have access to a full range of refined products, thereby securing their operations with a reliable supply chain.
The partnership with Dangote Refinery is poised to have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s oil and gas market. By ensuring a stable and affordable supply of fuel products in the over 1,000 retail outlets of the two companies, the agreement will help to alleviate the recurring issue of fuel scarcity that has long plagued Nigeria.
“This framework will see Ardova Plc offtake a full slate of petroleum products from the refinery. While Ardova Plc has been a significant off-taker from the refinery since its inception, this new framework will institutionalise a more robust relationship between the two companies to further enhance the emerging competitive landscape in the downstream oil and gas industry in the country,” a statement from Ardova stated.
Ardova has been a key off-taker from the Dangote Refinery since its inception, but this new framework is expected to formalise and strengthen the partnership between the two companies, creating long-term benefits for both parties.
The Dangote Refinery, which began production in 2024, has already played a pivotal role in addressing these challenges. Its large-scale operations have helped alleviate the supply pressures that often lead to price hikes and fuel shortages.
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