Economy

MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%

Published

5 years ago

22/07/2019

Modupe Gbadeyanka

As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.

At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.

It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.

Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.

In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.

It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.

The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.

“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.

It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.

The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.

In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.

According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.

“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.

“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.

A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.

The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.

“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.

“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.

“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.

“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.

Economy

Okitipupa Plc, Two Others Lift Unlisted Securities Market by 0.65%

Published

2 hours ago

14/12/2024

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.65 per cent gain on Friday, December 13, boosted by three equities admitted on the trading platform.

On the last trading session of the week, Okitipupa Plc appreciated by N2.70 to settle at N29.74 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N27.04 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N2.49 to end the session at N42.85 per unit compared with the previous day’s N40.36 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 50 Kobo to close at N16.30 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N15.80 per share.

Consequently, the market capitalisation added N6.89 billion to settle at N1.062 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.055 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 19.66 points to wrap the session at 3,032.16 points compared with 3,012.50 points recorded in the previous session.

Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors increased by 171.6 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 447,905 units recorded a day earlier, but the value of shares traded by the market participants declined by 19.3 per cent to N2.4 million from the N3.02 million achieved a day earlier, and the number of deals went down by 14.3 per cent to 18 deals from 21 deals.

At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 1.7 billion units worth N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 million.

In the same vein, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 108.7 million units for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with a turnover of 297.3 million units worth N5.3 billion.

Economy

Naira Trades N1,533/$1 at Official Market, N1,650/$1 at Parallel Market

Published

3 hours ago

14/12/2024

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated further against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N1.50 or 0.09 per cent to close at N1,533.00/$1 on Friday, December 13 versus the N1,534.50/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.

The local currency has continued to benefit from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this month.

The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.

The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN.

Market analysts say the publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira in the official market and tackled speculation.

In the official market yesterday, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N12.58 to wrap the session at N1,942.19/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,954.77/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N2.44 to close at N1,612.85/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,610.41/€1.

At the black market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N30 to sell for N1,650/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,680/$1.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely positive as investors banked on recent signals, including fresh support from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, as well as interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Ripple (XRP) added 7.3 per cent to sell at $2.49, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.5 per cent to $728.28, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 2.4 per cent to trade at $1.11, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.3 per cent to $122.56, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.9 per cent to settle at $101,766.17, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $0.4064, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.7 per cent to $226.15 and Ethereum (ETH) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $3,925.35, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

Economy

Index Gains 0.63% as Value of Nigerian Exchange Crosses N60trn

Published

3 hours ago

14/12/2024

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

For the fourth consecutive trading session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher on Friday by 0.63 per cent on sustained renewed buying pressure.

Apart from the energy and industrial goods sectors which closed flat, every other sector ended in the green territory, according to data obtained from the bourse.

Business Post reports that the insurance index appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the banking space improved by 0.63 per cent, and the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 617.47 points to settle at 99,378.06 points compared with the preceding day’s 98,760.59 points and the market capitalisation went up by 375 billion to close at N60.242 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s closing value of N59.867 trillion.

The volume of transactions on Customs Street yesterday grew by 11.13 per cent to 544.2 million shares from the 489.7 million shares transacted a day earlier.

The value of transactions increased during the session by 49.30 per cent to N10.6 billion from N7.1 billion and the number of deals went up by 1.93 per cent to 8,464 deals from the 8,304 deals posted in the previous trading session.

The busiest equity for the trading day was Japaul with the sale of 71.7 million units valued at N158.0 million, eTranzact exchanged 70.7 million units worth N477.5 million, Tantalizers sold 57.3 million units for N101.2 million, FCMB traded 33.0 million units worth N297.3 million, and Universal Insurance transacted 27.1 million units valued at N9.6 million.

A total of 36 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 15 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

The trio of Aradel Holdings, Ikeja Hotel and Caverton gained 10.00 per cent each to trade at N550.00, N8.80, and N1.98, respectively, as Africa Prudential rose by 9.87 per cent to N17.25 and Golden Guinea Breweries soared by 9.64 per cent to N8.64.

On the flip side, Austin Laz lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1.62, ABC Transport crashed by 8.00 per cent to N1.15, Royal Exchange slumped by 7.69 per cent to 60 Kobo, Secure Electronic Technology plunged by 5.26 per cent to 54 Kobo, and The Initiates crumbled by 4.26 per cent to N2.25.