Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The national scale long-term issuer rating of Fidson Healthcare Plc has been upgraded to A+(NG) from A(NG), with its short-term issuer ratings of A1(NG) affirmed.
This action was taken by GCR Ratings, which also accorded the leading healthcare organisation in Nigeria with a stable outlook in a statement obtained by Business Post.
It was explained that the company achieved this latest development amid its strong competitive position and improved financial profile.
GCR said Fidson Healthcare’s debt metrics remain moderate, bolstered by a successful N21 billion rights issue expected in Q2 2026 and robust cash flows that support strong liquidity, though large expansionary investments and heightened working capital requirements slightly constrain the rating.
Fidson is a prominent pharmaceutical manufacturer in Nigeria, with over 350 products registered with the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC). Its product portfolio encompasses a wide range of therapeutic categories, including antibiotics, infusion products, over-the-counter products, and lifestyle healthcare solutions.
The company is enhancing its market position through ongoing investments in manufacturing capacity, product innovation, automation, and operational efficiency.
The firm operates through an extensive network of over 120 distributors across Nigeria, ensuring strong retail visibility and market penetration.
To further strengthen its competitive position, the company is investing in a greenfield automated manufacturing facility, additional infusion lines, and expanded tablet lines, all expected to become operational in the near term. This capital expenditure will significantly increase productive capacity, improve operational efficiency, and enhance export competitiveness in the medium term.
In terms of its liquidity assessment, its 12-month sources versus uses coverage at 1.6x and 24-month coverage at 1.4x, supported by access to diverse funding sources.
Estimated liquidity sources include forecasted operating cash flow of N15.1 billion, cash holdings of N4.7 billion, inventory valued at approximately N17.5 billion, and cash of N21 billion from the equity raise. These resources are sufficient to cover anticipated near-maturing debt obligations of N23.4 billion and forecast medium-term capital spending of around N20 billion, as well as a dividend payout of N3.7 billion in 2026.
By Bon Peters
The new acting Comptroller of the Eastern Marine Command of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Mr Esien Etim Esiet, a Deputy Comptroller of Customs, has promised to maintain an open-door policy with stakeholders, including licensed agents and partners.
He gave this assurance when he officially assumed leadership of the command on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, according to a statement issued by the command’s spokesman, Mr Joshua Iliya, a Deputy Superintendent of Customs (DSC), in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
In a proactive move to strengthen maritime security and trade facilitation, he immediately initiated an extensive tour of operational facilities and high-level engagements across the region, including Rivers (Abonnema and Onne Outstations), Akwa Ibom (Oron Outstation), and Cross River (Calabar Outstation) States.
During the visitations, Mr Esiet conducted rigorous inspections of equipment and personnel readiness, emphasising that the success of the command relied on a united front, adding that a “sustained synergy is our greatest weapon in combating smuggling and maritime crimes,” insisting that a united front was non-negotiable for national security.
On the inter-agency level to foster a one-service approach, DC Esiet held strategic meetings with the Customs Area Controllers of Port Harcourt II (Onne), the Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone, and the Cross River/Calabar Free Trade Zone/Akwa Ibom Area Command.
To further reinforce maritime safety, he equally paid courtesy visits to top maritime security brass, including the Commander, NNS Pathfinder, Port Harcourt, the Commanding Officer, Navy Forward Operation Base (FOB), Ibaka, the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC), Eastern Naval Command, and the Cross River State Commissioner of Police.
On community and private sector partnership and in recognition of the vital role of grassroots support, DC Esiet visited monarchs in the region, underscoring commitment to maintaining deep-rooted ties with host communities, among others.
On fiscal policy compliance, he reiterated his administration’s resolve to strictly align with the policy direction of the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, emphasising that his leadership would focus on streamlining maritime enforcement protocols, ensuring officers were motivated and equipped while maintaining an open-door policy with licensed agents and partners.
The Eastern Marine Command, which is a specialised wing of customs, is dedicated to patrolling the nation’s Eastern Waterways, preventing smuggling, and ensuring the security of maritime trade.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a marginal loss of 0.02 per cent on Tuesday, May 26, due to selling pressure, as investors cut down their exposure to unlisted stocks.
During the session, the volume of securities traded by investors jumped by 45.6 per cent to 2.2 million units from the previous day’s 1.5 million units, the value of securities increased by 119.5 per cent to N129.9 million from the N59.2 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals soared by 92.6 per cent to 52 deals from the preceding day’s 27 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 61.2 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc followed with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
Five securities recorded various movements yesterday at the OTC securities exchange, with three price gainers and two price losers.
For the advancers, they were led by 11 Plc, which added N22.11 to its share price to close at N243.11 per unit versus N221.10 per unit, CSCS Plc grew by N2.95 to N77.80 per share from N74.85 per share, and IPWA Plc expanded by 80 Kobo to N8.83 per unit from N8.03 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc shrank by N12.11 to N167.89 per share from N180.00 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc lost 2 Kobo to sell at N2.98 per unit versus Monday’s N3.00 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation dropped N600 million to close at N2.571 trillion compared with the previous day’s N2.571 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) fell by 1.00 points to 4,297.17 points from 4,298.17 points.
The market will be closed on Wednesday (May 27) and Thursday (May 28) for the Eid al-Kabir holidays.
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