Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Stanbic IBTC Nominees Limited has been commended for its critical role in the Nigerian capital market, especially for safely keeping non-pension assets.
For the past 30 years, the company has provided custody services in Nigeria, and to celebrate this milestone, it was honoured with a closing gong ceremony at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The milestone reflects the institution’s longstanding contribution to investor confidence and the continued development of the nation’s capital market.
Welcoming the organisation to Customs Street, the chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, commended its three decades of custody services, recognising the firm’s role in strengthening investor confidence and enhancing market safety.
He highlighted NGX’s continued investment in technology, which he said has enabled over 2.6 million active retail investors to trade on the platform.
“Technology continues to be at the heart of our strategy,” Mr Chiemeka said, noting that a vibrant and secure marketplace remains essential to investor participation.
In his remarks, the chief executive of Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Wole Adeniyi, thanked NGX for its continued partnership, saying, “We are thrilled to be here today, commemorating not just our journey, but also the remarkable progress made by the NGX.”
He noted that the collaboration between the two institutions has continued to drive innovation, product development and thought leadership across the industry.
“We are dedicated to raising standards within the industry as part of Standard Bank Group. Our focus remains driving the growth and development of Nigeria’s capital market. Indeed, Nigeria is our home, and we drive her growth,” he added.
The chief executive of Stanbic IBTC Nominees, Mr Babatunde Majiyagbe, reflected on the evolution of the business from the era of physical share certificates stored in fireproof vaults to today’s fully dematerialised market, where securities are held electronically.
“We started with holding custody of physical certificates, investing in vaults with fire and dust protection, so those certificates could be presented when needed,” Mr Majiyagbe recalled, noting that while the market has evolved significantly, the commitment to service excellence has remained unchanged.
“What has endeared a lot of investors to the market is that they are dealing with a reputable organisation like ours. We are high on good governance, and high on technology, making the process of investment in Nigeria easier,” he said.
Mr Majiyagbe added that Stanbic IBTC Nominees’ role goes beyond just attracting foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and capital.
“For us, it’s not just about FPI; but also about the value we have delivered over 30 years. Stanbic IBTC Nominees continue to be the eyes and ears of foreign and domestic investors in our market,” he stated.
Mr Majiyagbe added that the firm has also supported the development of market rules and safeguards, noting: “We have, over the years, advocated for growth, change, transformation and stability in our capability to provide services to domestic and foreign portfolio investors continuously.”
The deputy chief executive of Stanbic IBTC Bank and Chairman of Stanbic IBTC Nominees, Mrs Bunmi Dayo-Olagunju, said the next phase of growth will build on the institution’s legacy of trust.
“For 30 years, we’ve delivered growth, security, and client confidence. That’s why investors have stayed with us and why new business keeps coming.
“Our target for this new phase of growth is simple: build on that trust and ride the acceleration in Nigeria’s economic activity.
“With custody, settlement, capital raise, and advisory integrated on one platform, we’re not just a custodian. We’re an infrastructure. We look forward to building on that trust for generations to come, serving both local and international clients. Hopefully, we’ll have another 100 years of maintaining that trust with local and international markets,” Mrs Dayo-Olagunju said.
By Dipo Olowookere
The positive market breadth index recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited could not save it from further claws of the bears on Friday.
The major performance indicators, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation, depreciated by 0.03 per cent and 0.01 per cent, respectively.
The ASI was down by 78.58 points to 245,283.68 points from the previous day’s 245,362.26 points, and the market capitalisation receded by N14 billion to N158.326 trillion from Thursday’s N158.340 trillion.
Business Post reports that market participants traded 943.0 million equities valued at N46.7 billion in 55,480 deals compared with the 2.1 billion equities worth N230.8 billion transacted in 48,231 deals a day earlier.
This implied that the trading volume shrank by 55.10 per cent, the trading value reduced by 79.77 per cent, and the number of deals surged by 15.03 per cent.
An analysis of the sectoral performance showed that the consumer goods space crashed by 0.60 per cent and the energy index went down by 0.09 per cent.
However, the banking sector improved by 1.90 per cent, the insurance counter expanded by 0.75 per cent, and the industrial goods segment soared by 0.10 per cent.
There were 33 appreciating stocks and 29 depreciating stocks during the last trading session of the week and month of July, indicating bullish investor sentiment despite the poor outcome.
CAP lost 9.97 per cent to trade at N128.25, Veritas Kapital depreciated by 9.49 per cent to N1.43, Vitafoam Nigeria slipped by 7.70 per cent to N179.80, The Initiates dipped by 6.67 per cent to N28.00, and NAHCO crashed by 6.63 per cent to N155.00.
Conversely, Eterna gained 10.00 per cent to sell for N33.00, Consolidated Hallmark also grew by 10.00 per cent to N8.36, McNichols expanded by 9.52 per cent to N5.75, Honeywell Flour increased by 8.96 per cent to N18.25, and First Holdco chalked up 8.00 per cent to quote at N129.55.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its bullish run on Friday, July 31, by 0.99 per cent.
This raised the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 43.54 points to 4,431.71 points from 4,388.17 points, and lifted the market capitalisation by N26.13 billion to N2.659 trillion from N2.633 trillion.
The growth came amid a significant decline in the activity level, as the volume of securities decreased by 73.0 per cent to 690,990 units from 2.6 million units, the value of securities slid by 15.0 per cent to N75.0 million from the preceding session’s N88.3 million, and the number of deals contracted by 31.6 per cent to 26 deals from the 38 deals recorded a day earlier.
The most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis remained Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 76.6 million units exchanged for N5.5 billion.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was also GNI Plc, with the sale of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
Investor sentiment was bullish yesterday after a positive market breadth index triggered by five price gainers and two price losers, led by 11 Plc, which gave up N14.99 to close at N225.01 per share versus the previous day’s N240.00 per share, and MRS Oil Plc, which shed N14.55 to settle at N132.00 per unit versus N146.55 per unit.
However, Nipco Plc gained N41.50 to sell at N456.50 per share compared with the preceding session’s N415.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N12.93 to N147.93 per unit from N135.00 per unit, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc improved by N1.00 to N20.00 per share from N19.00 per share, CSCS Plc soared by 54 Kobo to N102.00 per unit from N101.46 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc jumped by 1 Kobo to 50 Kobo per share from 49 Kobo per share.
