Economy
Are Stop Losses for Wimps?
By Steve Brice
When I started out in banking, I was based in a dealing room advising traders on potential positions to take. The positions were focused and generally very short-term in nature. Therefore, risk management was not a ‘nice-to-have’, it was vital to job security. When entering a trade, a stop-loss – a level at which the position taken would be unwound if it was losing money – was a must.
It was against this backdrop that a former colleague quipped that ‘stop-losses are for wimps’. He was of course referring to certain stocks in his portfolio which had fallen dramatically – he was probably justifying to himself why he should keep it! However, it raises an interesting question: Should we employ stop-losses when we invest?
While many people will be very passionate about this topic, as with most things in life, context is key. If you think about it, the existence of the stop-loss is a hedge against the fact that nobody knows what is going to happen and therefore you need to build in a circuit-breaker to avoid the behavioural biases that come with a loss-making position – the ostrich, or ‘head in the sand’, syndrome.
So, how does this translate for an average investor? I would argue that there are two dimensions to consider: the nature of investments being discussed and your time horizon. Let’s take each in turn.
I have a much greater conviction level that a diversified ‘foundation’ allocation (which includes exposure to different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, gold and private assets), or even a diversified equity portfolio, is more likely to rise over a given period of time than any individual stock.
The reason is simple. Different asset classes have different drivers and hence are usually uncorrelated in their moves. Therefore, just combining them into a portfolio smooths out the bumps and increases the probability of positive returns for the portfolio as a whole.
When it comes to the stock market, there are also different drivers that determine equity market or individual stock returns, but let’s simplify them into broad market drivers and idiosyncratic drivers. If the economy enters a recession, then most stocks will fall sharply in value. However, a company’s failed product launch will largely hit one stock, and those of a few of its suppliers. Its impact on the overall market will be much less severe.
This brings me to Principle Number 1: The broader the investment, the less likely a stop-loss is warranted and that a buy on dips approach makes sense.
A very good friend of mine recently questioned how applicable this ‘buy on dips’ approach was to stock markets outside of the US. So, we ran the numbers for some major global and Asian markets in terms of probability of positive returns over different time horizons and the potential size of returns for investors. The results are pretty interesting.
First, the historical probability of positive equity market returns across any given 12-month period, at around a two-thirds probability, is generally similar across major global or Asian indices – China is an outlier at just 55%. If you extend your time horizon to 5 years, this probability generally increases to around 80% – the outliers are Japan’s TOPIX (66%) and India’s Sensex (92%).
Second, we looked at what has happened after a 10% or 15% market pullback. Focusing on the 1-year time horizon, we can break the countries into 3 groups:
1) either the probability of positive returns or size of average return or both have increased significantly after a market sell-off. Markets that fall into this group include the US, Germany, UK, India.
2) there is no material change in either variable. This includes Hong Kong, Malaysia and Korea. Once you lengthen your time horizon to 5 years though, they all move into the first group.
3) the probability of positive returns or their average quantum actually declines after a sell-off. Japan and onshore China markets fit into this group. On a 5-year time horizon, China also moves into the first group but, interestingly, Japan stays firmly in group 3.
Hence the conclusion is: outside of Japan, the ‘buy on dips’ mantra has made sense, especially when held by long-term investors.
The above analysis highlights the importance of the last factor: time horizon. The dealing room environment generally takes narrow exposures over a very short time horizon. Thus, stop-losses are crucial. However, I believe the message for the average investor is the reverse as long as they are focused on a diversified foundation allocation with a long-term focus.
Structural thematic investments also potentially fall into this category. The longer your time horizon, the more likely your investment is to generate positive returns as long as the structural fundamentals remain supportive. Here, again, instead of a stop-loss being appropriate, market declines offer an opportunity to add to longer-term thematic positions given the likelihood that declines will prove temporary.
Principle number 2: The longer your time horizon, the less desirable a stop-loss is, especially for diversified allocations or long-term structural themes.
Thus, for investors who are trying to trade the market and pick stocks, we believe a strict risk management framework including the use of stop-losses is absolutely critical to returns. However, we believe the majority of investors would be much better served by building a foundation allocation with a ‘buy on dips’ approach. Investors can systematise this ‘buy on dips’ approach through regular portfolio rebalancing – say at least once or twice a year and especially after major market dislocations to bring their allocations back to their desired risk tolerance. Such rebalancing is akin to an investor systematically “buying low and selling high” – a win-win proposition. For these investors, stop-losses are likely to get in the way of wealth accumulation.
Steve Brice is Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered Bank’s Wealth Management division
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira closed the last trading session of the week in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on a positive note on Friday, April 11 with a gain of 1.2 per cent or N18.86 against the United States Dollar.
During the trading day, it was exchanged at the official forex market at N1,611.08/$1, in contrast to the N1,629.94/1 it was traded a day earlier.
The local currency strengthened yesterday at the currency market after the Dollar weakened in the international scene, making currencies like the Naira have a sigh of relief.
Also supporting this is efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to prop the market with the necessary liquidity.
However, the domestic currency depreciated against the British Pound Sterling at the spot market during the session by N5.57 to settle at N2,090.58/£1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N2,085.01/£1 and lost N10.18 against the Euro to sell for N1,815.82/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,805.64/€1.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira traded flat against the greenback on Friday, remaining unchanged at N1,620/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was bullish after the US Dollar fell to a 3-year low and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation dropped sharply.
The drop in the greenback made it possible for investors and traders to buy more while the index came in at 2.7 per cent versus the anticipated 3.3 per cent while the core PPI print also surprised to the downside.
Solana (SOL) appreciated by 5.4 per cent to $123.31, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 4.3 per cent to $0.1638, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 3.2 per cent to $83,697.39, and (XRP) added 2.4 per cent to quote at $2.04, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.4 per cent to $587.41.
In addition, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 1.2 per cent to $1,573.75, Cardano grew by 0.3 per cent to $0.6234, Litecoin (LTC) also went up by 0.3 per cent to $76.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices went up by about 2 per cent on Friday on the possibility that the United States could end Iran’s oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear programme.
Brent crude futures settled at $64.76 a barrel after chalking up $1.43 or 2.26 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $61.50 a barrel after it gained $1.43 or 2.38 per cent.
US Energy Secretary, Mr Chris Wright, said on Friday that his country could stop Iran’s oil exports as part of President Donald Trump’s plan to pressure Iran, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), over its nuclear programme.
Since he returned to the White House in January, President Donald Trump, who in his first term withdrew the US from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and clamped down on its oil exports, has again brought a tougher approach to the Middle Eastern power over its nuclear work.
It had affected the country’s oil exports but Iranian oil exports recovered under former President Joe Biden, who became president after Mr Trump’s first term, and so far in 2025 have yet to show a decline, according to industry data.
China, which opposes unilateral sanctions, buys the bulk of Iran’s shipments.
This comes as President Trump’s new tariff regime forced traders to reassess the geopolitical risks facing the crude market.
China announced on Friday it will impose a 125 per cent tariff on US goods starting on Saturday, up from the previously announced 84 per cent after the American President raised tariffs against China to 145 per cent on Thursday.
President Trump this week paused heavy tariffs against dozens of other trading partners.
However, market analysts noted that a prolonged dispute between the world’s two biggest economies is likely to reduce global trade volumes and disrupt trading routes, weighing on global economic growth and reducing demand for oil.
Some noted that despite the pause, which is only for 90 days, has already inflicted damages on the markets.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices.
It also reduced its US and global oil demand forecasts for this year and next year.
Reuters also predicted that China’s 2025 economic growth is expected to fall relative to last year’s pace as US tariffs raise pressure on the world’s top oil importer.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has called on state-owned enterprises to increase standards of transparency, ethics, and performance as Nigeria pushes to build a $1 trillion economy.
Speaking at the MOFI Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, the Minister described the newly introduced MOFI Scorecard as a vital benchmark for institutional health, designed to position state-owned enterprises for investment, growth, and long-term value creation.
According to Mr Edun, this scorecard is not just a document; it’s a test, adding that strong governance attracts capital, builds trust, and delivers real economic returns.
The two-day forum, themed Ensuring Value Creation in State-Owned Enterprises Through Better Corporate Governance, brought together CEOs, regulators, and development partners to examine how better oversight can unlock Nigeria’s public asset potential.
Referencing entities like NNPC Limited, Mr Edun noted that state-owned enterprises must be investor-ready as the government shifts from debt-heavy budgets to equity-based growth.
He also pointed to positive macro signals and falling food and fuel prices as early signs of a stabilising economy.
On his part, MOFI Chairman, Mr Shamsudeen Usman, confirmed that the scorecard will be enforced through independent assessments, including MOFI itself.
“We are not asking others to do what we haven’t already done,” he said.
Backed by the World Bank, the initiative marks a shift in how Nigeria manages public wealth, with governance now central to growth, resilience, and investor confidence.
The introduction of the governance scorecard is a testament to the Federal Government’s commitment to transforming Nigeria’s economy. As the country moves forward, one thing is clear: transparency, accountability, and growth will be the guiding principles for state-owned enterprises.
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