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Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Its Impact and Implications for Southern Africa

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implications for Southern Africa

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

This article attempts to contribute to the discussions on the evolutionary political confrontations and contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, its impact on and implications for Southern Africa.

Historically, both Russia and Ukraine attained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet era in 1991. It has embarked on territorial expansionism, annexing neighbouring former Soviet republics. Its annexation ambitions started with Georgia, then Crimea and now Ukraine. That, however, Russia considered itself a superpower and hopes to lead the emerging new world order.

After these several months, Russia’s “special military operation” approved by the Federation Council and the State Duma (legislative chambers) and which began on February 24 has had a tremendous impact on Africa.

As already known, it has pushed the United States, European Union (EU) and a few Asia-Pacific states to impose draconian sanctions on Russia.

This article helps to understand the impact, some of the implications and future directions by looking specifically at the Southern African region.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is a regional political-economic organization made up of 16 member states, with a population of approximately 395 million compared with Russia with approximately 145 million.

The SADC collectively aims at, among others, promoting sustainable social-economic development that will ensure poverty alleviation and enhancing ultimately the living standards of the people in Southern Africa. Despite differences in approach to politics in individual states, the group cooperates on issues of security in the region.

The Russian Federation maintains friendly bilateral relations practically with all these southern African states: Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The diplomatic rhetoric is that it has uniquely supported the struggle for political liberation particularly in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. And further to that, Russia claims to have a common understanding, solidarity and trusty position with African friends on important issues on international platforms including at the United Nations.

African representatives and their votes were considered very interesting. Some 17 African countries abstained from the vote at the UN General Assembly to deplore the Russian invasion of Ukraine while some other 28 countries in the continent voted in favour. Among those in the SADC bloc abstaining from vote include South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Russia-SADC Economic Scenario

The Southern African countries are struggling to overcome multiple challenges that have originated due to the endless Russia-Ukraine crisis. But a careful study and analysis show that prior to the February 24 crisis which unfolded in Ukraine, Russia indicated strong preparedness and high interest to broaden cooperation in economic sectors in Africa.

In efforts to reposition itself to become a major partner, the following priorities as an economic strategy in the region were jointly put forward during the Russia-SADC meeting held back in September 2019:

– Prospecting, mining, oil, construction, mining, purchase of gas, oil, uranium, and bauxite assets (Angola, Namibia and South Africa);

– Construction of power facilities: hydroelectric power plants on the River Congo (Angola, Namibia, and Zambia,) and nuclear power plants (South Africa);

– Creation of a floating nuclear power plant, and South African participation in the international project to build a nuclear enrichment centre in Russia;

– Railway construction (Angola);

– Creation of Russian trade houses for the promotion and maintenance of Russian engineering products (South Africa); and

– Participation of Russian companies in the privatisation of industrial assets, including those created with technical assistance from the former Soviet Union (Angola).

Of course, there are disparities in the level of development and cooperation between Russia and individual states in Southern Africa. At least during the past few years, Russia has notably strengthened relations with most of them. For example, it has leveraged into exploring lucrative platinum projects at Darwendale (Zimbabwe).

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov launched this $3 billion project back in 2014, after years of negotiations, with the hope of raising its economic profile in Zimbabwe. Few other anticipated projects have sprung up in Angola, DRC, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

While COVID-19 impacted development progress, there are currently signs of disarray caused by restrictive foreign exchange policies and continuing inability to determine funding sources for Africa. Russia has been engulfed with crisis and worse under serious sanctions, bilateral agreements might take years to realize fully in most Southern African countries.

Our research shows that ten SADC member-states have diplomatic offices in the Russian Federation: Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, many African countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports. Russia is a major supplier of fertilizers to 15 African countries. Reuters news agency reported that Africa is suffering from disruptions in food supply and soaring prices of basic goods and risks “disastrous consequences” if the situation endures.

This position was supported by African Union Chairman Macky Sall during a conversation with philanthropist Mo Ibrahim at the Ibrahim Governance Forum, far ahead before he travelled to Sochi, Russia. That Sochi trip discussed measures which could alleviate the escalating problems related to the food and agricultural inputs and further reviewed strategic solutions within the context of Russia-African relations.

Despite the assurance of reversing the situation offered at the Putin-Sall-Faki meeting, the Russia-Ukraine never-ending crisis still flushing up commodity prices worldwide. Africa’s economy is currently worsening, a direct primary result of rising energy costs. This economic instability further generated social discontent and tension among vulnerable impoverished groups across the population. Some have asked for wage indexations as well as increments in pensions and unemployment payments.

Local South African media have reported, during the previous months, about workers protesting against inflationary prices in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. There have been sharp currency fluctuations throughout the southern African region.

Southern Africa depends on some imported goods, such as agricultural produce and fertilizers, from Russia and Ukraine. In terms of negotiations, much has to be done in order to reach comprehensive agreements to free movement of these to Africa’s market.

Experts suggested in separate interviews that it was necessary to implement the memorandum between Russia and the UN on exports of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers.

Arguably, there are indications that Washington and Brussels’ anti-Russian sanctions do not apply to foodstuffs and fertilizers. While some explain further that there are still obstacles to banking settlements, insurance and carriage of cargoes at shipping terminals due to Western sanctions.

From our analytical position, first, as African countries face continued uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) interventions are necessarily seen only as short-term solutions. And second, in an article published by the French Press Agency (AFP), says negotiations between the AU leadership and the Russian president illustrate the importance of enhancing bilateral relations.

While African leaders are attempting to build international solidarity and alliances aimed at achieving genuine peace and global security, and for an emerging new order, it is also important to initiate a new reform drive to transform agriculture and industry throughout Africa. African financial institutions, such as the African Development Bank (AfDB), urgently have to prioritize investing more in food production in the continent.

Highly commendably, the initiative, the Feed Africa strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa (2016 to 2025), is to move the continent to the top of export-orientated global value chains where it has a comparative advantage. This aims at making Africa a net exporter rather than an importer of basic agricultural products and contributing to eliminating extreme poverty in Africa and ending hunger and malnutrition in Africa by 2025.

Our research shows the bank’s efforts have brought home $1.5 billion for the African Emergency Food Production Facility. It has been advocating for expanding social protection programmes, strengthening economic resilience and responsiveness to shocks of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The African Development Bank Group is Africa’s premier development finance institution.

Emerging Economic Prospects

Despite the negative impacts and consequences, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has simultaneously opened doors (opportunities) for Africa. Europe has seen potential supplies of energy especially gas from the region. As Mozambique is gradually emerging as an exploration hub, it is attracting investors from Europe. Meanwhile, leading energy companies such as TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, British Petroleum (BP), Shell and Eni are already working in the region, seeking alternative supplies in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi and stanch member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has spearheaded multiple initiatives and partnerships with international partners to boost security and ensure project resumption. As a result, the European Union recently announced a plan to increase financial support for Mozambique while energy majors TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Eni are focused on getting projects back on track.

Mozambique is increasingly stepping up efforts in the production of liquefied natural gas and consequently becoming one of the suitable reliable suppliers to Europe. While it might not replace Russia which cuts its export of gas as a reciprocal action against European Union members, Mozambique seeks ultimately to earn some revenue from its natural resources.

In late July, the outgoing EU Ambassador to Mozambique, Sánchez-Benedito Gaspar, argued that natural gas from Cabo Delgado was among the alternatives in Europe’s plan to diversify energy sources in the face of constraints caused by Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

“Mozambique’s gas, with the presence of large European multinational companies, now has an even more important and strategic value,” Sánchez-Benedito Gaspar said in an interview with Lusa, Mozambican News Agency, in Maputo. According to the diplomat, Europe came to the conclusion that “it cannot trust its old partner (Russia, among the world’s biggest gas exporters), which is authoritarian and uses gas as an instrument of war,” and is making efforts to secure alternative sources.

With an approximate population of 30 million, Mozambique is endowed with natural resources. With the untapped huge resources, if it is strategically well-managed and exploited in the southern states – Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania and South Africa, it will possibly be making energy poverty history in the southern region and possibly entire Africa.

The Puzzling Politics

From the political perspective, a majority of African leaders have in principle endorsed multilateralism, and also reminded respect for territorial sovereignty, independence and human rights. Reference has been made to non-interference in nations’ internal affairs that brought to the fore the general principles on which the Non-Alignment Movement organization was created.

South African President Ramaphosa called for promoting international peace and security by advocating inclusive dialogue and the peaceful settlement of disputes.

“We must safeguard the principle of multilateralism. We need a United Nations that is fit-for-purpose and clear in its benefits to all humanity, especially in times of insecurity and crises,” the President said late June.

Nearly all the experts contacted for this article have the same arguable points, especially regarding safeguarding and walling (fencing) to be used by key powers as “political playing grounds” in the Southern African region. Despite the contradictions, the experts acknowledged the fact that western hegemony and “rule-based order” be halted, and make way for the new emerging world order.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, however, informed about broadening African issues in the “new version of Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept against the background of the waning of the Western direction” and this will objectively increase the share of the African direction in the work of the Foreign Ministry. It was last updated in 2013.

The development of a comprehensive partnership with African countries remains among the top priorities of Russia’s foreign policy, Moscow is open to its further build-up, Lavrov said in an Op-Ed article for the African media, and originally published on the ministry’s website in late July.

The Future Roadmap

We have seen the extent African leaders express political sympathy for Russia. For Russia to regain a part of its Soviet-era influence, it has to address its own policy approach, this time shifting towards new paradigms – implementing some of those bilateral agreements; secondly to promote development-oriented policies and its strategic efforts have to be more practical, more consistent, more effective and result-oriented with African countries.

In the context of building post-Soviet relations, Russia has to attempt to create a new model of template for itself, and for what it often refers to as “non-Western friends” in the crucial geopolitical changes occurring now in order to bring them into its armpit from Asia, Africa and Latin America.

African leaders, under the auspices of the African Union, have to design a broad roadmap. Significantly it is necessary to adopt “a collective voice and approach” for the continent.

On other hand, a major rethink is urgently required in the current evolutionary processes of the new world order. The first drastic step is for Africans to identify their weaknesses, understand the fact that it is endowed with huge natural resources and, therefore, work together in complete harmony by pulling their own large-scale resources to fund the development agenda.

From our analytical perspectives, it is now time for Africa and its youth to stand up and defend its history and riches. And the significant challenge is the need for the adoption of a unified strategy to avoid being used as a pawn in global power games. This should be the continental task for the SADC and the African Union.

Specifically, South African Development Community leaders have to follow the same line of procedures for the region. In the process of seeking additional support and whatever contributions from foreign partners and foreign investors, either government or private, these have to fall within the roadmap as re-emphasized during the 42nd summit of the South African Development Community.

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Essent Slashes Contact Centre Technology Costs by 50%

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Essent Energy provider

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Netherlands’ largest energy provider, Essent, has cut the technology costs of its contact centre infrastructure by half.

The organisation, which serves 2.5 million customers, recorded zero critical incidents post-migration and improved agent workplace satisfaction by 36 per cent.

The migration was delivered in partnership with AI-first customer experience transformation specialists, Sabio Group, and was completed in under 12 weeks for an operation spanning over 1,000 agents across two locations.

Agents were forced to juggle multiple disconnected screens simultaneously — a workflow that was as inefficient as it was stressful.

“Our agents were constantly working with different screens — multiple chat instances open at once, multiple agent desktop instances. It was messy, and in some cases, quite stressful,” SAFe Product Manager for Customer Interaction, Omnichannel and Digital Transformation at Essent, Michiel Kouijzer, stated.

“A lot of colleagues were saying I was mad for even suggesting this approach. It kind of feels like a victory on a personal level that it did work out. You just have to be a little ambitious — and have the right expert partner who can make it work,” Kouijzer added.

With stable cloud infrastructure now firmly in place, Essent is turning its attention to the capabilities that were impossible in its legacy environment: AI-powered call summarisation, agentic customer self-service, and next-generation workforce optimisation.

Rather than a reckless ‘big bang’ cutover that could have affected service to millions of households, Sabio engineered a phased migration strategy — beginning with Essent’s SME segment to validate technical readiness before scaling to the full enterprise operation.

“This project showcases Sabio’s unique position in the contact centre technology landscape. We’re not just moving Essent to the cloud — we’re establishing a foundation for continuous improvement in their customer experience delivery,” the Country Manager for Sabio Group Benelux, Wouter Bakker, commented.

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Africa: A New Market for Russian Business

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New Market for Russian Business

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

On April 11, the presentation of the book “Africa: a new market for Russian business” took place, which aroused lively diverse interests among business representatives, entrepreneurs and employees of federal structures of Russia. The event was dedicated to discussing the prospects of Russian companies entering the African market and became a platform for the exchange of views and experiences.

Participating guests, packed in the small hall, included:

– representatives of business circles,

– entrepreneurs interested in new directions of development,

– employees of federal agencies curating foreign economic activity.

The presentation was held in a constructive and friendly atmosphere. The author of the book, Serge Fokas Odunlami, detailed the key ideas and conclusions presented in the publication. Particular attention was paid to the practical aspects of operating in the African market, as well as the analysis of opportunities and risks for Russian companies.

During the lively discussion, participants asked questions, shared their experiences and made suggestions for developing cooperation with African countries. This format allowed not only to get acquainted with the content of the book, but also to discuss topical issues of expanding business relations.

Meaning of the book: The publication, “Africa: a new market for Russian business” offers readers not only analytical, but also practical recommendations on investment and market trends, and how to enter the African market. The book will be a useful tool for those considering Africa as a promising destination for investment and business development.

The presentation of the book became a significant event for the Russian business community interested in expanding cooperation with Africa. Serge Fokas Odunlami introduced the participants to the new edition, which is a comprehensive business guide that gives an impetus for dialogue and implementation of joint entrepreneurial projects and corporate initiatives across Africa.

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Ryan Collyer Reveals Reasons Behind Africa’s Significant Energy Deficit

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Ryan Collyer Rosatom CEO

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Perhaps Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, is at the frontline, shaping Africa’s energy security. And African countries are also accelerating coordinated efforts to build nuclear power plants primarily to supply their energy, which will drive industrialisation and boost power capacity for domestic utilisation.

Energy experts say adopting nuclear can further support a diverse energy mix, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and help across the continent. Over the past two decades, Russia has been collaborating with African countries, adopting energy initiatives to provide power to approximately half the continent’s population, and making it an important component of Africa’s future energy strategy and solutions. At this point, however, it is necessary to underline the irreversible fact that Russia’s ultimate goal is to ensure long-term African energy security.

In this interview, Rosatom’s Chief Executive Director for Central and Southern Africa, Ryan Collyer, reiterates the strategic importance of Russia-Africa’s energy cooperation through strengthening bilateral agreements on collaboration on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Collyer explains that the Russian approach is its ability to offer an integrated solution, from technology and financing to training and localisation. According to him, partnerships must be built on mutual benefit and on the principle of transparency. Here follows the interview excerpts:

What are the expectations, specifically in the nuclear energy sphere, for Africa during the forthcoming Russia–Africa Summit scheduled for 2026?

The expectation is a clear shift from dialogue to delivery. Over the past few years, we have built a strong foundation through agreements, feasibility discussions and partnerships. The 2026 Russia–Africa Summit is an opportunity to demonstrate tangible progress.

In practical terms, I would expect greater focus on implementation readiness. That includes regulatory development, human capital, financing models and localisation strategies. We also expect to see more structured cooperation in areas like small modular reactors, which are particularly relevant for many African grids, as well as stronger emphasis on education and training partnerships. Ultimately, the success of the Summit will be measured by how many initiatives move from concept to execution.

Why, despite many bilateral agreements, is Africa still experiencing a significant energy deficit?

Africa’s energy deficit is not a result of a lack of ambition or agreements. It is primarily a question of scale, financing and infrastructure readiness. Energy projects, especially large-scale ones, require long-term investment, stable policy frameworks and strong institutional capacity. Many countries are working under fiscal constraints, and at the same time, demand is growing rapidly due to population growth and urbanisation. So, even when progress is made, it can be outpaced by rising demand.

It is also important to understand that many agreements are not meant to deliver immediate infrastructure. They are part of a longer preparation cycle, including feasibility studies, regulatory development and workforce training. Nuclear projects in particular are long-term by nature, and while this can be perceived as slow progress, it is actually a reflection of the level of diligence required.

How do you assess the contribution of nuclear energy to climate change mitigation and technological development in Africa?

Nuclear energy plays a dual role in Africa’s development, both as a clean energy source and as a driver of technological advancement. From a climate perspective, nuclear provides reliable, low-carbon electricity at scale. Africa needs a significant expansion of its energy capacity to support economic growth, and this growth must be both stable and sustainable.

Nuclear allows countries to increase power generation without increasing emissions, while ensuring a consistent baseload supply. At the same time, its impact goes beyond electricity. Nuclear technologies support medicine, agriculture, water management and industrial processes. Across Africa, they are already used in areas such as cancer treatment, food preservation and environmental monitoring, making nuclear a broader platform for sustainable development.

In this context, Rosatom offers integrated solutions across the full nuclear value chain. This includes large-scale and small modular reactors, as well as advanced non-power applications such as nuclear medicine and irradiation technologies. Our focus is on delivering practical, tailored solutions that support long-term development and local capacity building.

Is Africa unprepared to deal with nuclear waste, as some critics suggest?

I would say that preparedness varies across countries, but it would be inaccurate to suggest that the issue is being ignored. Responsible nuclear programmes require a comprehensive approach to waste management from the very beginning. This includes legal frameworks, regulatory oversight, storage solutions and long-term planning. These elements are part of international best practice and are supported by organisations such as the IAEA. What is true is that this topic is often undercommunicated in the public space. It should be discussed more openly, because transparency builds trust.

Countries that are serious about nuclear energy understand that waste management is not optional. It is a core component of the programme, and it is addressed in parallel with all other aspects of development. Rosatom offers comprehensive solutions for spent fuel and radioactive waste management. These include technologies for safe storage, transportation, reprocessing and recycling of nuclear materials. In fact, advanced reprocessing solutions allow for the reuse of valuable components of spent fuel, significantly reducing the volume of waste and improving the overall sustainability of the nuclear cycle.

Nuclear power remains controversial. Why do you believe it is important for Africa, and what role does it play in the energy mix?

Africa needs a balanced and pragmatic energy strategy. The conversation should not be about choosing one technology over another, but about building an energy mix that is reliable, affordable and sustainable. Renewables will play a critical role and are already expanding rapidly. However, they are variable by nature. For industrialisation, countries also need stable, continuous power that is baseload. This is where nuclear can make a meaningful contribution. A diversified energy mix that includes renewables, nuclear, hydropower and other sources allows countries to reduce risk, improve energy security and support long-term economic growth.

Nuclear is not the only solution, but it is an important part of a resilient system, especially for countries with growing industrial ambitions. In this context, Rosatom is able to support countries with integrated energy solutions that combine reliability, sustainability and long-term partnership models, tailored to national development priorities.

How can we shift public perception, given the legacy of Chornobyl and Fukushima?

We cannot rewrite history, and we should not try to. Events like Chornobyl and Fukushima shaped public perception for a reason. The starting point is respect for those concerns, not dismissal. At the same time, what is often missing in the conversation is what happened after those events. Chornobyl, in particular, fundamentally reshaped the entire philosophy of nuclear safety. It led to a complete rethinking of reactor design, emergency response, and regulatory oversight. Independent regulators were strengthened, safety responsibilities were clearly separated from operators, and safety culture became not just a principle but a legal requirement supported by continuous drills and probabilistic risk assessments.

Technologically, the industry also changed dramatically. Modern reactors are designed to withstand even worst-case scenarios, with multi-layered “defence-in-depth” systems, core melt traps, and passive safety mechanisms that rely on natural physical processes rather than human intervention. These are not incremental improvements. They are the direct result of lessons learned at a very high cost. But facts alone do not change perception. People do not build trust through reports. They build it through experience and transparency. That is why our approach in Africa is deliberately open.

We create opportunities for students, young professionals and journalists to visit nuclear facilities, research centres and training programmes. When people can see how systems operate, how safety is managed, and how seriously it is taken, the conversation becomes more grounded and less abstract. There is also an important human dimension that is often overlooked.

The history of Chornobyl is not only a story of tragedy. It is also a story of professionalism, responsibility and the people who managed the crisis and generated the knowledge that made today’s safety standards possible. Acknowledging that the full picture helps move the discussion away from fear alone toward understanding. At the same time, we need to broaden the narrative. Nuclear is not only about power generation. It is about cancer treatment, food security, water management and high-skilled employment. When communities begin to connect nuclear technology with real benefits in their own lives, it stops being an abstract risk and starts becoming a practical solution. Ultimately, perception does not change through persuasion. It changes through consistency. Through transparency, long-term engagement, and real-world impact.

What are your final thoughts on Russia’s preparedness to support Africa’s nuclear ambitions?

Russia has demonstrated that it is committed to long-term partnerships in Africa, particularly in the nuclear sector. We are already seeing concrete examples of cooperation in areas such as project development, education and skills transfer. The key strength of the Russian approach is its ability to offer an integrated solution, from technology and financing to training and localisation. Partnerships must be built on mutual benefit and transparency. Africa’s priorities are clear: energy security, economic development and local capacity building. Any partner that is ready to contribute to these goals consistently and practically will have a meaningful role to play. If we look country by country, the picture becomes even more interesting.

Take Ethiopia. This is a country thinking long-term about energy security and industrialisation. It has strong hydropower, but also understands the need to diversify. Ethiopia is prepared to take a big step towards nuclear energy. In Rwanda, the approach is different. It is focused on innovation and speed. There is a strong interest in small and flexible nuclear technologies, alongside active use of nuclear science in healthcare and agriculture. What stands out is the clarity of vision and pace of implementation.

Then, there is Namibia. As a major uranium producer, the question is how to move up the value chain. Partnerships can help connect resources to technology, skills and future energy applications. So, Russia’s role is not one-size-fits-all.

The real strength lies in adapting to each country’s strategy. If that continues, nuclear cooperation becomes not just about energy, but about shaping long-term technological development. Rosatom is one of the few global players capable of delivering the entire nuclear value chain. This includes reactor technologies, fuel supply, waste management solutions, including reprocessing, as well as long-term operational support and human capital development. This comprehensive capability is what allows us to move projects from concept to reality in a structured and sustainable way.

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