Economy
IMF Forecasts 3.2% Growth for Nigeria in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Nigeria would witness a 3.2 per cent economic growth in 2023 and 3.0 per cent in 2024, in line with April’s WEO projections, reflecting security issues in the oil sector just as currency depreciation and inflation grip Africa’s largest economy.
This is part of a wider drop as global growth is projected to fall from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2024.
The global lender disclosed this in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for July 2023: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges, which said though the forecast for 2023 was modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 WEO, it remained weak by historical standards.
“Compared with projections in the April 2023 WEO, growth has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points for 2023, with no change for 2024.
“The forecast for 2023–24 remains well below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 per cent.
“It is also below the historical average across broad income groups, in overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as per capita GDP terms. ”
The report said advanced economies continued to drive the decline in growth from 2022 to 2023, with weaker manufacturing, as well as idiosyncratic factors, offsetting stronger services activity.
“For advanced economies, the growth slowdown projected for 2023 remained significant, from 2.7 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023.
“About 93 per cent of advanced economies are projected to have lower growth in 2023, and growth in 2024 among this group of economies is projected to remain at 1.4 per cent.”
While the report said in emerging markets and developing economies, the growth outlook was broadly stable for 2023 and 2024, although with notable shifts across regions.
“For emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to be broadly stable at 4.0 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024, with modest revisions of 0.1 percentage point for 2023 and –0.1 percentage point for 2024.”
The report showed growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decline to 3.5 per cent in 2023 before picking up to 4.1 per cent in 2024.
The report said global headline inflation was expected to fall from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 6.8 per cent in 2023 and 5.2 per cent in 2024.
“Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward. ”
It said inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an intensification of the war in Ukraine and extreme weather-related events, triggering more restrictive monetary policy.
The report said financial sector turbulence could resume as markets adjust to further policy tightening by central banks.
“China’s recovery could slow, in part as a result of unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.
“Sovereign debt distress could spread to a wider group of economies.”
It, however, said on the upside inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient.
The report said in most economies, the policy priorities remained to achieve sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability.
“Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring.
“Should market strains materialise, countries should provide liquidity promptly while mitigating the possibility of moral hazard.
“They should also build fiscal buffers, with the composition of fiscal adjustment ensuring targeted support for the most vulnerable.
The report said improvements to the supply side of the economy would facilitate fiscal consolidation and a smoother decline of inflation toward target levels.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further suffered a 0.64 per cent decline on Thursday as the bears tightened their grip on the bourse.
For the second straight session, all the key sectors of Customs Street pointed south, with the energy counter down by 5.22 per cent. The insurance index slumped by 2.59 per cent, the banking space depreciated by 0.28 per cent, and the consumer goods segment moderated by 0.06 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat, though with a marginal fall.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,493.71 points to 233,580.83 points from 235,074.54 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N959 billion to N149.888 trillion from N150.847 trillion.
Investor sentiment remained weak after a negative market breadth index, as there were 21 price gainers and 34 price losers.
Aradel and Deap Capital went down by 10.00 per cent each to N1,575.00 and N4.05, respectively. Trans-Nationwide Express fell by 9.90 per cent to N3.64, Regency Alliance slipped by 9.57 per cent to N85 Kobo, and C&I Leasing dipped by 9.48 per cent to N28.12.
Conversely, Red Star Express grew by 9.60 per cent to N24.55, Legend Internet expanded by 9.09 per cent to N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 7.10 per cent to N8.30, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 5.45 per cent to N8.70, and Ellah Lakes improved by 4.65 per cent to N9.00.
Yesterday, market participants traded 393.7 million equities valued at N19.2 billion in 45,813 deals compared with the 488.1 million equities worth N20.9 billion transacted in 46,239 deals recorded a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 19.34 per cent, 8.13 per cent, and 0.92 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was Access Holdings with a turnover of 39.1 million units worth N896.2 million, Chams traded 24.5 million units valued at N96.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 24.1 million units for N436.9 million, Sterling Holdings exchanged 23.8 million units valued at N182.2 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 18.9 million units worth N2.1 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a marginal gain of 43 Kobo or 0.03 per cent against the United States Dollar on Wednesday, June 25, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell for N1,380.11/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,380.54/$1.
However, the Nigerian currency lost N3.21 against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session to close at N1,818.84/£1, in contrast to Wednesday’s exchange rate of N1,815.63/£1, and against the Euro, it fell by N3.21 to trade at N1,566.84/€1 versus midweek’s value of N1,563.63/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depreciated against the Dollar at the GTBank FX deck yesterday by N3 to sell for N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,380/$1, and at the black market window, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX turnover at the NFEM window surged by about 56 per cent day-on-day to close at $195.371 million from $125.588 million reported on Wednesday, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The Naira continues to feel the impact of rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the central bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while oil prices continue to be held in the $70 range by developments in the geopolitical scene.
Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin sank below $60,000 as more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $842 million of the damage. About 148,500 traders were wiped out. The largest single position was a $38 million bitcoin-dollar bet on Hyperliquid. It led at $489 million in liquidations and dropped 2.8 per cent to sell at $59,862.61.
Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 5.5 per cent to $1,554.57, Ripple (XRP) declined by 4.8 per cent to $1.03, Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.3 per cent to $0.1433, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 3.4 per cent to sell at $0.0745, TRON (TRX) slid 2.2 per cent to $0.3215, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $561.34, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $62.94, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has been cut down by N50 to N1,125 per litre from N1,175 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery confirmed this development via a statement on Thursday to newsmen.
Dangote Refinery described this downward review of the product’s price as a reflection of its ongoing commitment to ensuring price stability, improving affordability, and supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.
It further said it underscores its responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and its efforts to pass on cost efficiencies to downstream partners and consumers.
In the statement, the company said it remains focused on its broader mission of contributing to economic growth, enhancing fuel availability, and fostering a more competitive and sustainable petroleum sector in Nigeria.
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