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Fitch Revises Nigeria’s Outlook to Negative; Affirms at ‘B+’

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Fitch Ratings

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at ‘B+’.

The issue ratings on Nigeria’s senior unsecured foreign currency bonds have also been affirmed at ‘B+’.

Also, the Country Ceiling has been affirmed at ‘B+’ and the Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B’.

The revision of the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs reflects that Tight FX liquidity and low oil production contributed to Nigeria’s first recession since 1994. The economy contracted through the first three quarters of 2016 and Fitch estimates GDP growth of -1.5% in 2016 as a whole.

Fitch said it expects a limited economic recovery in 2017, with growth of 1.5%, well below the 2011-15 annual growth average of 4.8%. The non-oil economy will continue to be constrained by tight foreign exchange liquidity. Inflationary pressures are high with year on year CPI inflation increased to 18.5% in December.

It forecasts that access to foreign exchange will remain severely restricted until the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) can establish the credibility of the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) and bring down the spread between the official rate and the parallel market rates.

The spot rate for the naira has settled at a range of NGN305-NGN315 per USD in the official market, while the Bureau de Change (BDC) rate depreciated to as low as NGN490 per USD in November 2016. In an effort to work with the CBN to help the parallel market rates converge with the official, BDC operators subsequently adopted a reference rate of NGN400 per USD.

However, dollars continue to sell on the black market at rates of well above NGN400. The authorities have communicated a commitment to the current official exchange rate range, but the availability of hard currency at those rates is severely constrained. Trading volumes in both the spot and derivative markets increased following the June changes to the official FX market, but remain low, at of USD8.4bn in December, compared to USD24bn in December 2014.

Gross general government debt increased to an estimated 17% of GDP at end-2016, from 13% at end-2015, although it remains well below the ‘B’ median of 56% and is a support to the rating. However, the country’s low revenues pose a risk to debt sustainability. Gross general government debt stands at 281% of revenues in 2016, above the ‘B’ median of 230%. Nigeria’s government debt is 77% denominated in local currency, which makes it less susceptible to exchange rate risk, but the share of foreign currency debt is increasing. Additionally, the government faces contingent liabilities from approximately USD5.1bn in debt owed by the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation to its joint venture partners.

Fitch forecasts that Nigeria’s general government fiscal deficit will remain broadly stable in 2017, at 3.9% of GDP, just below the ‘B’ category median of 4.2%. Nigeria is likely to experience a recovery in oil revenues, but will continue to struggle with raising non-oil revenues. Total revenues will rise to just 7.4% of GDP, up from 6.2% in 2016, but still below the 12.4% of GDP experienced in 2011-15. Import and excise duties have experienced a boost from the depreciation of the naira, but corporate taxes and the VAT will continue to underperform, owing to issues with implementation and compliance. On the expenditure side, growing interest costs will increase current spending. Fitch forecasts the cost of debt servicing in 2017 will reach 1.4% of GDP, up from an average of 1.1% over the previous five years.

The Nigerian banking sector has experienced worsening asset quality as a result of the weakening economy, problems in the oil industry, and exchange rate pressures on borrowers to service their loans. The CBN reported that industry NPLs grew to 11.7% of gross loans at end-June 2016, up from 5.3% at end-December 2015. Tight foreign currency liquidity has also led to some Nigerian banks experiencing difficulty in meeting their trade finance obligations which were either extended or refinanced with international correspondent banks.

Nigeria’s ‘B+’ IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

Nigeria’s fiscal policy has been predicated on finding sources of external funding to finance increases in capital spending. The draft federal budget for 2017 calls for total spending of NGN7.3trn in 2017, up from the NGN6.1tn contained in the 2016 budget. Fitch does not expect the government to fully execute the capital spending envisaged in the 2017 budget, approximately NGN1.8trn, or 1.5% of GDP, but it will have to finance an overall federal government deficit of approximately NGN2.6trn.

The authorities’ financing plan calls for borrowing between USD3bn-USD5bn from external sources to finance the 2017 deficit and parts of the 2016 budget. The bulk of external borrowing will come from multilateral development banks and the government is also likely to go to market with a Eurobond offering of USD1bn in 1Q17. The Nigerian government has negotiated USD10.6bn in export credits for financing infrastructure development; which is currently awaiting parliamentary approval. The government’s financing plans also call for domestic issuance of approximately NGN1.3bn in 2017 and use of its overdraft facility at the CBN, which the government reports is currently at NGN1.5trn.

Nigeria’s oil sector will receive a boost from the improved security situation in the Niger Delta and Fitch expects oil production to average 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2017. Oil production fell as low as 1.5 mbpd in August, before recovering to 1.8 as of October 2016. The recovery in oil revenues and increased fiscal spending could boost the economy in 2017, if the government can arrange improve the execution of capital expenditures. However, the present lull in violence and oil infrastructure attacks will only hold if the government can come to a more permanent peace settlement with Niger Delta insurgents.

The government’s policy of import substitution has contributed to significant import compression, which allowed the current account deficit to narrow to an estimated 1% of GDP in 2016, down from 3.1% in 2016. The naira depreciation in June helped to slow the loss of reserves and forward operations by the CBN allowed the authorities to clear a large backlog of dollar demand. Gross international reserves of the CBN stood at USD27.7bn in late January, down from USD29bn at end-2015, but higher than the August 2016 position of USD24.2bn.

The oil sector has shrunk to account for about 10% of Nigeria’s GDP, but the overall economy is still heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for up to 75% of current external receipts and 60% of general government revenues. The Nigerian senate has promised to pass the Petroleum Investment Bill (PIB) in early 2017. The PIB has been under consideration for nearly a decade and could help increase efficiency and transparency in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

Nigeria’s ratings are constrained by weak governance indicators, as measured by the World Bank, as well as low human development and business environment indicators and per capita income.

Also, Fitch’s proprietary SRM assigns Nigeria a score equivalent to a rating of ‘B+’ on the Long-term FC IDR scale.

Fitch’s sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR.

Fitch’s SRM is the agency’s proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch’s QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

The main factors that could lead to a downgrade are:

– Failure to secure an improvement in economic growth, for example caused by continued tight FX liquidity.

– Failure to narrow the fiscal deficit leading to a marked increase in public debt.

– A loss of foreign exchange reserves that increases vulnerability to external shocks.

– Worsening of political and security environment that reduces oil production for a prolonged period or worsens ethnic or sectarian tensions.

The current rating Outlook is Negative. Consequently, Fitch does not currently anticipate developments with a material likelihood of leading to an upgrade. However, the following factors could lead to positive rating action:

– A revival of economic growth supported by the sustained implementation of coherent macroeconomic policies.

– A reduction of the fiscal deficit and the maintenance of a manageable debt burden.

– Increase in foreign exchange reserves to a level that reduces vulnerability to external shocks.

– Successful implementation of economic or structural reforms, for instance raising non-oil revenues, increasing the execution of capital expenditures and passing the PIB.

Fitch’s forecasts are for Brent crude to average USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018, based on the most recent Global Economic Outlook published in November 2016.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Add More Products to Export Basket

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nigeria Export Basket

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, has urged the country to broaden its export basket beyond raw materials by embracing ideas, innovation and the production of more value-added and complex products

Mr Adedeji said this during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, on Thursday.

The NRS chairman, in the lecture entitled From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy, revealed that Nigeria experienced stagnation in its export drive over three decades, from 1998 to 2023, and added only six new products to its export basket during that period.

He stressed the need to rethink growth through the lens of complexity by not just producing more of the same stuff, lamenting that Nigeria possesses a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, as well as lacking “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” he said in a statement by his special adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi.

Mr Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the world by comparative studies of success and failure, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil.

“We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.

“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.

“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities,” he stated, adding that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.

“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products,” the taxman stated.

He added that President Bola Tinubu has already begun the difficult work of rebuilding the economy, building collective knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.

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Economy

Nigeria Inaugurates Strategy to Tap into $7.7trn Global Halal Market

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Halal Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Thursday inaugurated Nigeria’s National Halal Economy Strategy to tap into the $7.7 trillion global halal market and diversify its economy.

President Tinubu, while inaugurating the strategy, called for disciplined, inclusive, and measurable action for the strategy to deliver jobs and shared prosperity across the country.

Represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, he described the unveiling of the strategy as a signal of Nigeria’s readiness to join the world in grabbing a huge chunk of the global halal economy already embraced by leading nations.

“As well as to clearly define the nation’s direction within the market, is expected to add an estimated $1.5 billion to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. It is with this sense of responsibility that I formally unveil the Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy.

“This document is a declaration of our promise to meet global standards with Nigerian capacity and to convert opportunity into lasting economic value. What follows must be action that is disciplined, inclusive, and measurable, so that this Strategy delivers jobs, exports, and shared prosperity across our nation.

“It is going to be chaired by the supremely competent Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.”

The president explained that the halal-compliant food exports, developing pharmaceutical and cosmetic value chains would position Nigeria as a halal-friendly tourism destination, and mobilising ethical finance at scale,” by 2030.

“The cumulative efforts “are projected to unlock over twelve billion dollars in economic value.

“While strengthening food security, deepening industrial capacity, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium-sized enterprises across our states,” he added.

Allaying concerns by those linking the halal with religious affiliation, President Tinubu pointed out that the global halal economy had since outgrown parochial interpretations.

“It is no longer defined solely by faith, but by trust, through systems that emphasise quality, traceability, safety, and ethical production. These principles resonate far beyond any single community.

“They speak to consumers, investors, and trading partners who increasingly demand certainty in how goods are produced, financed, and delivered. It is within this broader understanding that Nigeria now positions itself.”

Tinubu said many advanced Western economies had since “recognised the commercial and ethical appeal of the halal economy and have integrated it into their export and quality-assurance systems.”

President Tinubu listed developed countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

“They are currently among the “leading producers, certifiers, and exporters of halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and financial products.”

He stated that what these developed nations had experienced is a confirmation of a simple truth, that “the halal economy is a global market framework rooted in standards, safety, and consumer trust, not geography or belief.”

The president explained that the Nigeria national halal economy strategy is the result of careful study and sober reflection.

He added that it was inspired by the commitment of his administration of “to diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment, and create sustainable jobs across the federation.

“It is also the product of deliberate partnership, developed with the Halal Products Development Company, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

“And Dar Al Halal Group Nigeria, with technical backing from institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa.”

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said the inauguration of the strategy was a public-private collaboration that has involved extensive interaction with stakeholders.

Mrs Oduwole, who is the Chairperson, National Halal Strategy Committee, said that the private sector led the charge in ensuring that it is a whole-of-government and whole-of-country intervention.

The minister stressed that what the Halal strategy had done for Nigeria “is to position us among countries that export Halal-certified goods across the world.

The minister said, “We are going to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to ensure that we export our Halal-friendly goods to the rest of Africa and beyond to any willing markets; participation is voluntary. “

She assured that as the Chairperson, her ministry would deliver on the objectives of the strategy for the prosperity of the nation.

The Chairman of Dar Al-Halal Group Nigeria L.td, Mr Muhammadu Dikko-Ladan, explained that the Halal Product Development Company collaborated with the group in developing the strategy.

“In addition to the strategy, an export programme is underway involving the Ministry of Trade and Investment, through which Nigerian companies can be onboarded into the Saudi Arabian market and beyond.£

Mr Dikko-Ladan described the Strategy as a landmark opportunity for Nigeria, as it creates market access and attracts foreign direct investment.

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Economy

UK, Canada, Others Back New Cashew Nut Processing Plant Construction in Ogun

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Cashew Nut Processing Plant

By Adedapo Adesanya

GuarantCo, part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), has provided a 100 per cent guarantee to support a $75 million debt facility for Robust International Pte Ltd (Robust) to construct a new cashew nut processing plant in Ogun State, Nigeria.

GuarantCo, under the PIDG is funded by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden and Canada, mobilises private sector local currency investment for infrastructure projects and supports the development of financial markets in lower-income countries across Africa and Asia.

Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest cashew producers of 300,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts annually, yet currently less than 10 per cent are processed domestically. Most raw nuts are exported unprocessed to Asian and other countries, forfeiting up to 80 per cent of their potential export value and adding exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations.

According to GuarantCo, this additional plant will more than double Robust’s existing cashew processing capacity from 100 metric tonnes per day to 220 metric tonnes per day to help reduce this structural gap.

The new plant will be of extensive benefit to the local economy, with the procurement of cashew nuts from around 10,000 primarily low-income smallholder farmers.

There is an expected increase in export revenue of up to $335 million and procurement from the local supply chain over the lifetime of the guarantee.

Furthermore, the new plant will incorporate functionality to convert waste by-products into value-added biomass and biofuel inputs to enhance the environmental impact of the transaction.

It is anticipated that up to 900 jobs will be created, with as many as 78 per cent to be held by women. Robust also has a target to gradually increase the share of procurement from women farmers, from 15 per cent to 25 per cent by 2028, as it reaches new regions in Nigeria and extends its ongoing gender-responsive outreach programme for farmers.

Terms of the deal showed that the debt facility was provided by a Symbiotics-arranged bond platform, which in turn issued notes with the benefit of the GuarantCo guarantee. These notes have been subscribed to in full by M&G Investments. The transaction was executed in record time due to the successful replication of two recent transactions in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, again in collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics.

Speaking on the development, the British Deputy High Commissioner, Mr Jonny Baxter, said: “The UK is proud to support innovative financing that mobilises private capital into Nigeria’s productive economy through UK-backed institutions such as PIDG. By backing investment into local processing and value addition, this transaction supports jobs, exports and more resilient agricultural supply chains. Complementing this, through the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnerships and the Developing Countries Trading Scheme, the UK is supporting Nigerian businesses to scale exports to the UK and beyond, demonstrating how UK-backed partnerships help firms grow and compete internationally.”

Mr Dave Chalila, Head of Africa and Middle East Investments at GuarantCo, said: “This transaction marks GuarantCo’s third collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics, emphasising our efforts to bring replicability to everything we do so that we accelerate socio-economic development where it matters most. The transaction is consistent with PIDG’s mandate to mobilise private capital into high-impact, underfinanced sectors. In this case, crowding in institutional investors in the African agri-processing value chain.

“As with the two recent similarly structured transactions, funding is channelled through the Symbiotics institutional investor platform, with the notes externally rated by Fitch and benefiting from a rating uplift due to the GuarantCo guarantee.”

Adding his input, Mr Vishanth Narayan, Group Executive Director at Robust International Group, said: “As a global leader in agricultural commodities, Robust International remains steadfast in its commitment to building resilient, ethical and value-adding supply chains across origin and destination markets. This transaction represents an important step in advancing our long-term strategy of strengthening processing capabilities, deepening engagement with farmers and enhancing local value addition in the regions where we operate. Through sustained investment, disciplined execution and decades of operating experience, we continue to focus on delivering reliable, high-quality products while fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth.”

For Ms María Redondo, director at M&G Investments, “The guarantee gives us the assurance to invest in hard currency, emerging market debt, while supporting Robust’s new cashew processing plant in Nigeria. It’s a clear example of how smart credit enhancement can unlock institutional capital for high-impact development and manage currency and credit risks effectively. This is another strong step in channelling institutional capital into meaningful, on‑the‑ground growth.”

Also, Ms Valeria Berzunza, Structuring & Arranging at Symbiotics, said: “We are pleased to continue our collaboration with M&G Investments, GuarantCo, and now with Robust through a transaction with a strong social and gender focus, demonstrating that well-structured products can boost commercially attractive, viable, and impactful investments.”

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