Economy
Nigeria’s Crude Production Drops to 1.45b/d in March 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude production dropped by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.45 million barrels per day in March 2024, according to the latest survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
This showed that the country, for yet another month, underperformed its expected quota of 1.5 million barrels per day as it recorded 1.47 million barrels per day in February.
The drop in Nigeria’s crude production happened as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) output in March was up slightly month on month, as several producers continued to exceed their quotas.
Overall, the group produced 41.25 million barrels per day of crude in March, up 40,000 barrels per day on February levels despite efforts made by Saudi Arabia to enforce compliance.
This included an 80,000 barrels per day increase in OPEC production to 26.66 million barrels per day, offset by a drop in output by its allies of 40,000 barrels per day. March was the third month of the group’s latest voluntary production cuts, which were supposed to take approximately 700,000 barrels per day off the market in the first quarter of 2024.
The additional OPEC+ production has come ahead of crude prices breaking above the $90 per barrel level.
Several countries produced above target in March, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, which said they would compensate for overproduction in early 2024.
The survey showed that OPEC+ countries implementing cuts produced 165,000 barrels per day above quota in March, representing a compliance rate of 97.9 per cent, driven primarily by OPEC members rather than their Russia-led allies. The alliance also produced above target in January and February, with compliance rates of 96.5 per cent and 97.8 per cent respectively.
The nine OPEC nations subject to quotas produced 320,000 barrels per day over their targets in March, including excess output of 280,000 barrels per day in Iraq, 40,000 barrels per day in the UAE and 50,000 barrels per day in Gabon.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC countries produced 165,000 barrels per day below their collective quota, even with excess output in Kazakhstan of 92,000 barrels per day.
Also, OPEC+ plans to continue with its current policy of aggressive cuts until at least the end of the first half of 2024.
Last month, producers with voluntary cuts announced plans to extend them until the end of June.
Economy
Brent Futures Climb $1 on US-Iran War Uncertainty
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent futures climbed $1.06 or 1.3 per cent to $83.55 a barrel on Friday amid ongoing uncertainty about the negotiations in progress that determine control of and reopening of the key shipping artery of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished at $78.18 a barrel after it chalked up 89 cents or 1.15 per cent.
Iran is reviewing a bill to ban American and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passed before the war began at the end of February.
Market analysts noted that while this week’s signals on a potential deal have sent a roller-coaster ride in market sentiment, the market remains in the dark as to what needs to happen for the agreement to be clinched.
Part of the question being asked is whether the Iran-Oman agreement would allow a US-flagged vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz or allow a vessel headed for an American port to go through.
Shipping through Hormuz remains heavily constrained as Middle East oil production is still well below pre-war levels while attacks on commercial vessels have continued even as negotiators discuss possible arrangements for the waterway.
Some also said that this week’s developments have signalled that hostilities between Iran and the US are not yet over. This is because the proposed deal is not easily workable because of sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments by the US government.
Iran is seeking fees of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait, while Oman is discussing fees of about 3 per cent, while the Donald Trump administration wants no fees at all.
Citi has raised its third-quarter Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $75 as the war drags on and repeated attempts at a deal fail to restore normal oil flows through the strait.
The bank still expects the conflict to be resolved, but the five-month war has lasted longer than Citi anticipated and kept more geopolitical risk in crude prices. Citi left its fourth-quarter Brent forecast unchanged at $70 per barrel and still sees the benchmark averaging $65 in 2027.
Economy
Dangote Eyes New Investments, Acquisitions as Goldman Sachs Tours Refinery
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian businessman and chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans for a new phase of investments and acquisitions as the conglomerate pushes towards its target of generating $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
Mr Dangote disclosed this while receiving a delegation of senior executives from global investment banking and financial services firm Goldman Sachs, led by co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, Mr Anthony Gutman, during a tour of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and Dangote Fertiliser Limited complex in Lagos.
Speaking after the visit, Mr Dangote said the refinery and associated industrial facilities underscore the transformative impact of long-term investment in Africa, stressing that the group’s ambitions extend beyond its current strategic plan.
“No matter how we try to explain what we have built, you cannot fully appreciate it until you see it. But this is only the beginning. We need to look beyond 2030.
“The next phase of our journey will include new investments and acquisitions as we continue to scale the business,” he said.
He added that detailed internal modelling had reinforced management’s confidence that the Group’s target of generating $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030 was achievable.
According to him, the projections were based on conservative assumptions and had strengthened the company’s conviction to pursue an even more ambitious long-term growth strategy.
Mr Dangote also revealed that the strong participation of employees in the refinery’s recent private placement reflected growing internal confidence in the company’s long-term strategy and future prospects.
The Goldman Sachs delegation, after an extensive tour of the 700,000 barrels-per-day refinery, described the project as an extraordinary achievement.
“It is extraordinary what Mr Dangote and the whole organisation have achieved. The ambition, the scale of the project, the quality of the project and the culture of the people is very impressive,” the executives said.
According to a statement issued by Dangote Group on Friday, the delegation was led by Mr Anthony Gutman and included Mr Adib N. Zouein, Co-Head of EMEA Emerging Markets Regional Sales and Head of the Middle East and North Africa region for Global Banking & Markets Public; Mr Ryad Yousuf, Global Head of FICC Sales Strats and Structuring; and Mr Jimi Adesanya, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Sales (excluding South Africa).
The visitors were received by Dangote; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas, Mr Devakumar Edwin; Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Mr David Bird; Group Executive Director, Oil & Gas, Ms Fatima Aliko Dangote; Chief of Staff to the President/CEO, Ibrahim Dikko; Group Chief Branding and Communication Officer, Mr Anthony Chiejina; Group Chief Economist, Mr Hassan Mahmud; Group Chief Strategy Officer, Mr Aliyu Suleiman; and Head of Administration, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Mr Musa Bala, among other senior executives.
Economy
Senate Probes N1.2trn Fuel Subsidy Deductions as NEITI Claims N1.16tn Spent in 2021
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Senate Public Accounts Committee has heard that Nigeria spent N1.16 trillion on fuel subsidy in 2021, while N1.20 trillion was deducted from federation crude oil sales proceeds during the same period.
The disclosure came from the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), Mr Mohammed Bello Shehu, during the committee’s ongoing investigation into the 2021 to 2023 Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) audit reports on the oil and gas sector.
According to the commission, crude and petroleum product losses cost N16.2 billion, pipeline repairs accounted for N22.05 billion, while strategic stock holding attracted N6.75 billion.
The revelations come against the backdrop of Nigeria’s long-running fuel subsidy regime, which successive governments maintained to keep the pump price of petrol artificially low despite mounting fiscal pressures.
Over the years, subsidy payments consumed trillions of Naira, significantly reducing revenues available to the three tiers of government and contributing to widening budget deficits.
The issue reached a turning point in May 2023 when President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy during his inauguration speech, declaring that “fuel subsidy is gone.” The decision followed years of concerns over the rising cost of the programme, allegations of fraud, and repeated recommendations by fiscal authorities and international financial institutions that the subsidy had become unsustainable.
The removal triggered a sharp increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), leading to higher transportation and living costs across the country. In response, the federal government introduced a series of palliative measures, including cash transfers, support for mass transit, and wage-related interventions, while arguing that savings from the subsidy would be redirected to infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other critical sectors of the economy.
The commission also argued that the current method of calculating the 13 per cent derivation fund undermines the constitutional intention of the policy.
Meanwhile, the committee stood down the Niger Delta Development Commission’s presentation until next Wednesday to allow lawmakers review its submission.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of the Auditor-General of the Federation, warning that he must appear before lawmakers next Tuesday or face compulsory appearance through the constitutional powers of the National Assembly.



