Nigeria’s Crude Production Drops to 1.45b/d in March 2024

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s crude production dropped by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.45 million barrels per day in March 2024, according to the latest survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

This showed that the country, for yet another month, underperformed its expected quota of 1.5 million barrels per day as it recorded 1.47 million barrels per day in February.

The drop in Nigeria’s crude production happened as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) output in March was up slightly month on month, as several producers continued to exceed their quotas.

Overall, the group produced 41.25 million barrels per day of crude in March, up 40,000 barrels per day on February levels despite efforts made by Saudi Arabia to enforce compliance.

This included an 80,000 barrels per day increase in OPEC production to 26.66 million barrels per day, offset by a drop in output by its allies of 40,000 barrels per day. March was the third month of the group’s latest voluntary production cuts, which were supposed to take approximately 700,000 barrels per day off the market in the first quarter of 2024.

The additional OPEC+ production has come ahead of crude prices breaking above the $90 per barrel level.

Several countries produced above target in March, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, which said they would compensate for overproduction in early 2024.

The survey showed that OPEC+ countries implementing cuts produced 165,000 barrels per day above quota in March, representing a compliance rate of 97.9 per cent, driven primarily by OPEC members rather than their Russia-led allies. The alliance also produced above target in January and February, with compliance rates of 96.5 per cent and 97.8 per cent respectively.

The nine OPEC nations subject to quotas produced 320,000 barrels per day over their targets in March, including excess output of 280,000 barrels per day in Iraq, 40,000 barrels per day in the UAE and 50,000 barrels per day in Gabon.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC countries produced 165,000 barrels per day below their collective quota, even with excess output in Kazakhstan of 92,000 barrels per day.

Also, OPEC+ plans to continue with its current policy of aggressive cuts until at least the end of the first half of 2024.

Last month, producers with voluntary cuts announced plans to extend them until the end of June.