Business Activity Falls First Time in Eight Months

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July 2024 has indicated that the Nigerian private sector moved back into contraction territory.

A statement from the lender disclosed that the index of the performance of the business environment closed at 49.2 points compared with 50.1 points recorded in June as steep price pressures hit demand and resulted in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.

Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration, which occurred in the period under review, the first in eight months.

Input costs and selling prices continued to rise rapidly, although there were some signs that efforts to secure sales resulted in a softer pace of output price inflation.

The renewed worsening in the health of the private sector mainly reflected the first reductions in output and new orders since November last year. In both cases, rates of decline were only modest.

Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, with clients often unwilling or unable to commit to new projects.

Three of the four broad sectors covered by the report saw business activity decrease in July, the exception being manufacturing where production increased.

Selling prices continued to increase sharply at the start of the third quarter as companies passed higher input costs through to their customers. This was despite the rate of inflation easing to the slowest since May 2023 amid reports from some panellists that they had lowered charges as part of efforts to secure sales.

The Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said, “The Stanbic IBTC headline PMI declined for the second consecutive month to 49.2 points in July – its lowest level since November 2023.

“Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, resulting in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.

“Notably, output and new orders printed below 50.0 thereby ending a seven-month sequence of expansion and reinforcing a renewed worsening in the health of the private sector.

“Even as output and new orders declined, companies continued to expand their staffing levels during the month. Moreover, the rate of job creation picked up to the strongest in 2024 so far.

“Meanwhile, overall input prices continued to rise sharply in July with the rate of inflation quickening for the third month running and were the fastest since March.

“Although output prices continued to rise rapidly during July, the pace of inflation eased from that seen in June and was the slowest since May 2023. Where selling prices increased, panellists linked this to higher input costs.

“On the other hand, some companies lowered charges as part of efforts to attract customers. That said, companies remained confident overall that output will increase over the next 12 months, reflecting business expansion plans including efforts to start exporting and open more branches.

“On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation may have peaked in June, with moderation expected in H2:24 as the year-on-year effects of PMS subsidy removal (which induced higher fuel prices) and significant currency depreciation (which accompanied the FX unification) fade.

“This, in addition to the commencement of the primary harvest season in September, is likely to provide some respite for consumers, thereby likely supporting a slight improvement in domestic economic activities in H2:24.”

Further increases in purchase prices and staff costs were registered in July. Purchase price inflation quickened to a four-month high, often due to currency weakness but also higher raw material costs.

Meanwhile, the rise in employee expenses was broadly in line with that seen in June as companies continued to help workers with higher living costs, particularly those related to transportation.

The renewed decline in output was accompanied by a reduction in business confidence, with firms at their least optimistic since the survey began. That said, business expansion plans meant that firms still expected output to rise over the coming year.

Companies scaled back purchasing activity, with reduced demand for inputs and prompt payments helping lead to a further shortening of suppliers’ delivery times.

Meanwhile, stocks of inputs increased. Employment also continued to rise slightly, with the pace of job creation quickening to the fastest in 2024 so far. Higher staffing levels and a drop in new orders meant that backlogs of work were cleared for the second consecutive month.