Economy
Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Contracts For 13th Straight Month
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey remained below the 50.0 mark for the 13th consecutive month as it stood at 49.7 points in July 2024 compared with the 48.8 points recorded in June 2024, the new report published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed.
The PMI is computed based on responses regarding the direction of change in different aspects of respondents’ business activities.
An index above 50.0 points indicates an expansion in business activities while below 50.0 points indicates a contraction in business activities. An index of 50.0 indicates a no-change situation.
Out of the five frameworks for gauging the outcome; Output Level, Suppliers’ Delivery Time and Stock of Inventory expanded while New Orders and Employment contracted at a slower rate compared to the levels recorded in the previous month.
The sectoral breakdown shows that the Services Sector recorded expansion for the second consecutive month while the Industry and Agricultural Sectors registered slower contraction when compared to the level recorded in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the Industry Sector which encompasses the Manufacturing, Construction and Mining & Quarrying; Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Subsectors all recorded contractions in the review month.
The Composite Output Index stood at 50.3 points in July 2024, indicating growth in production level for the first time after five consecutive months of contraction. Out of the 36 subsectors reviewed, 16 subsectors reported growth in production during the review month, while 17 subsectors registered a decline with Transportation Equipment reporting the highest decline. This means that the three remaining subsectors were stationary.
On the other hand, the composite level of the New Orders index at 48.8 points, indicated a contraction in the volume of new incoming businesses/orders. Of the 36 subsectors reviewed, 25 subsectors reported declines in New Orders with Chemical & Pharmaceutical Products recording the highest decline. While nine subsectors reported an increased level of New Orders in the review month, Cement and Forestry, however, were stationary.
The composite Employment Level indicated contraction in July 2024 for the seventh consecutive month coming in at 48.7 index points. The index improved in July 2024 when compared to the 48.3 points recorded in the previous month.
Eighteen subsectors reported a contraction in Employment, with Printing & Related Support Activities recording the highest decline in the review month. The primary Metal subsector remained unchanged, while the remaining 17 subsectors reported increased Employment Levels with the Petroleum & Coal Products subsector having the higher Employment Level.
The overall Stock Level in July 2024 registered an expansion, with an index of 50.7 points marking the second instance of expansion in 2024 while the Delivery Time for goods ordered in July 2024 was faster as indicated by an index of 50.8 points, implying that suppliers took a shorter time to supply raw materials orders by industrial
firms.
In July 2024, both the overall input and output prices decreased compared to June 2024. However, the overall output price was lower than the overall input price. The output prices of the Industry, Services, and Agriculture sectors were lower than those recorded in June 2024. For input prices, the Agriculture and Services sectors’ prices were lower than the level in June, while the Industry sector price was higher in July.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for March 2026 should further moderate to 13.59 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.06 per cent recorded in February 2026.
The company, in a note sighted by Business Post, explained that easing in the average prices of goods and services for last month would be impacted by a high base from the same period of 2025, but noted that on a month-on-month basis, the rate will spike.
Last month, energy prices soared after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.
“However, month-on-month pressures are likely to pick up, driven by the renewed increases in energy prices, which should nudge headline inflation higher.
“Core inflation is also likely to edge higher, reflecting second-round effects from higher transportation and production costs, although the relative stability of the Naira should help moderate the pace of increase.
“Food inflation is also expected to rise on a month-on-month basis, driven by higher logistics and distribution costs, as well as recent increases in staple food prices,” a part of the report noted.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers later today.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated marginally by 0.04 per cent to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, though on a month-on-month basis, inflationary pressures accelerated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s total public debt rose from N153.29 trillion at the end of September 2025 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, according to the latest data released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday.
The increase indicates a quarter-on-quarter increase of N5.98 trillion or 3.9 per cent.
The debt office noted that the December 2025 figures are provisional and were converted using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,435.25/$, while the September 2025 figures were converted using N1,474.85/$.
On a year-on-year basis, the debt profile marked an increase of N14.61 trillion or 10.1 per cent, from N144.67 trillion in December 2024 to N159.28 trillion in December 2025, representing a rise from $94.23 billion to $110.97 billion, an increase of $16.75 billion, in Dollar terms.
Domestic debt remained the largest, rising from N81.82 trillion in September 2025 to N84.85 trillion in December 2025.
This represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of N3.03 trillion or 3.7 per cent compared to December 2024, when domestic debt stood at N74.38 trillion – the figure increased by N10.47 trillion or 14.1 per cent year-on-year.
In Dollar terms, domestic debt rose from $55.47 billion in September 2025 to $59.12 billion in December 2025, and from $48.44 billion in December 2024. This highlights a sustained reliance on the domestic market for financing.
The federal government accounted for the bulk of domestic debt at N80.49 trillion, representing 50.53 per cent of total public debt, while states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) accounted for N4.36 trillion.
Nigeria’s external debt stood at N74.43 trillion as of December 2025, representing 46.73 per cent of total public debt.
This reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of N2.95 trillion from N71.48 trillion in September 2025, and a year-on-year increase of N4.14 trillion from N70.29 trillion recorded in December 2024.
In Dollar terms, external debt rose from $48.46 billion in September 2025 to $51.86 billion in December 2025, and from $45.78 billion in December 2024.
The federal government continued to dominate external borrowing, accounting for N66.27 trillion of the total external debt, while states and the FCT accounted for N8.16 trillion.
However, the structure of Nigeria’s debt portfolio remained broadly stable despite the increase in overall debt.
While domestic debt accounted for 53.27 per cent of total debt in December 2025, compared to 53.37 per cent in September 2025 and 51.41 per cent in December 2024, external debt stood at 46.73 per cent in December 2025, compared to 46.63 per cent in September 2025 and 48.59 per cent a year earlier.
By Dipo Olowookere
The volume of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, consumed daily in Nigeria stood at 47.3 million litres in March 2026 compared with the 56.9 million litres recorded in February 2026.
This information was revealed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in its latest factsheet.
The decline in daily petrol consumption in Nigeria coincided with a hike in the price of the product, triggered by a rise in global crude oil prices as a result of the Middle East crisis.
The United States and Israel launched airstrikes in Iran in late February, with crude oil rising above $100 per barrel and even above $110 per barrel at one point.
The price is currently below $100 per barrel on the global market after the President of the United States, Mr Donald Trump, signalled his intention to negotiate with Iran amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data by NMDPRA also showed that diesel consumption eased to 14.5 million litres per day from the previous month’s 20.3 million litres per day, while aviation fuel stood at 2.1 million litres per day versus 2.9 million litres per day in February 2026.
It was also disclosed that PMS daily supply for the month under review increased to 40.1 million litres per day from the preceding month’s 39.5 million litres per day.
From this, domestic supply came down by 6.30 per cent to 34.2 million litres per day from 36.5 million litres per day, while imported petrol stood at 5.9 million litres per day versus 3.0 million litres per day a month earlier.
Business Post observed that Dangote Refinery supplied about 34.2 million litres per day of PMS into the Nigerian market from the 48.2 million litres per day it produced. The private refiner produced 16.5 million litres of diesel per day in March 2026, supplying 2.2 million litres per day into the domestic market.
In the period, the Warri and Kaduna refineries were totally shut down, while the Port Harcourt refinery, according to the report, though it was shut down, witnessed the evacuation of about 0.048 million litres of diesel per day while it was operational.
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