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Oil Prices Dip as Israel Agrees Ceasefire Deal With Lebanon

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New Oil Grade

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, reducing oil’s risk premium, with Brent crude futures down by 20 cents or 0.27 per cent to $72.81 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI)  crude futures trading at $68.77 a barrel after a decline of 17 cents or 0.25 per cent.

Israel’s security cabinet has agreed a ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Tuesday. The accord was expected to take effect on Wednesday.

The Prime Minister of Israel, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, said he was ready to implement a ceasefire deal with Lebanon and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.

Prices had fallen more than $2 on Monday following multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

A ceasefire could pressure crude oil prices because the US administration would likely reduce sanctions on oil from Iran, a supporter of Hezbollah.

Also, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ are discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, the three biggest producers in the OPEC+ alliance, met on Tuesday to discuss the state of the global oil market.

This happened days before the wider group will meet on December 1 to decide how to proceed with the production cuts.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al-Sudani held on Tuesday a joint meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud.

The meeting focused on discussions regarding global energy market conditions, crude oil production, and its flow to markets to meet demand.

The group pumps about half the world’s oil and had planned to gradually roll back oil production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025.

However, a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.

Plans by incoming US President, Mr Donald Trump, have also created jitters for the market after he said he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada.

Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 5.935 million barrels for the week ending November 15, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API).

The official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Cardoso Targets Ease in Inflation, FX Pressures By Q1 2025

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Nigeria's fx pressure

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, has said the lender’s efforts to tame inflation and pressures on the foreign exchange market will begin to yield results by the first quarter of 2025.

Mr Cardoso spoke during a press conference in Abuja to announce the outcomes of the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) for the sixth time by 25 basis points to 27.50 per cent.

He said the apex bank is using every possible strategy to tame inflation with a firm assurance that ongoing monetary tightening measures, which it has done six times alone this year, will have a favourable outcome.

The CBN rationalised that the 25 basis points hike is targeted at addressing rising inflation, which stood at 33.88 per cent as of October 2024.

“The central bank is resolute and committed to continuing to fight the war against inflation and there is no going back on that.

“We are going to deploy everything in our arsenal to ensure that we are able to tame it. And of course, this entails the return to orthodox monetary policies,” Cardoso stated amid agitations of rising interest rates on the economy,” the central banker said.

According to him, the Committee was unanimous in its decision to further tighten policy, though members took a decision to retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points; Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent; as well as the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.

He also said the MPC was particularly concerned that all inflationary measures also inched up on a month-on-month basis, suggesting the persistence of price pressures, with attendant adverse impacts on the income and welfare of citizens.

Despite this, Mr Cardoso’s tone was optimistic, forecasting that current measures would be able to tame prices in coming months due to lag effect.

“It is important for people to understand that there is a time lag between when you implement policies and when they have an impact. That time lag can be anything up from six to nine months to even a year. Our own perspective is that we expect to see greater results in the first quarter of 2025.”

He said in addition, that the apex bank is working very assiduously with some of the relevant agencies to ensure that structural impediments to growth are handled appropriately.

“We are ensuring that we are on top of the game and that the foreign exchange market operates at its most optimal manner to reflect the true value of the currency, and of course, we have price discovery.”

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Economy

Tinubu Orders Prompt Reactivation of Warri, Kaduna Refineries

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Kaduna refinery

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has been directed to quickly reactivate the second unit of the Port Harcourt Refinery as well as the refineries in Warri and Kaduna.

This directive was given by President Bola Tinubu via a statement issued on Tuesday by his Special Adviser of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga.

Mr Tinubu issued this order in reaction to the commencement of crude oil processing by the Port Harcourt refinery in Rivers State yesterday.

The facility began official loading of petroleum products, including the premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, yesterday after gulping about $1.5 billion for rehabilitation.

This process started in 2021 under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, who his successor praised for “initiating the comprehensive rehabilitation of all our refineries.”

In the statement yesterday, the President noted that the reactivation of the remaining refineries would “significantly enhance domestic production capacity alongside the contributions of privately-owned refineries and make our country a major energy hub, with the gas sector also enjoying unprecedented attention by the administration.”

He affirmed his “administration’s determination to repair the nation’s refineries, aiming to eradicate the disheartening perception of Nigeria as a major crude oil producer that lacks the ability to refine its own resources for domestic consumption.”

Highlighting the values of patience, integrity, and accountability in the rebuilding of the nation’s infrastructure, President Tinubu called upon individuals, institutions, and citizens entrusted with responsibilities to maintain focus and uphold trust in their service to the nation.

“In alignment with the Renewed Hope Agenda focused on shared economic prosperity for all, the President reaffirms his administration’s commitment to achieving energy sufficiency, enhancing energy security, and boosting export capacity for Nigeria,” the statement said.

Mr Tinubu used the opportunity to laud the NNPC under the leadership of Mr Mele Kyari for his “unwavering dedication and commitment” in overcoming challenges to achieve this milestone.

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Economy

NASD OTC Rises 1.18% as Index Jumps to 3,032.92 Points

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Nigeria's Unlisted Securities Market Sheds 0.78%, NASD Shares up 8.31%

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 1.18 per cent, with the Unlisted Security Index (USI) crossing the 3,000 mark after it went up by 35.24 points on Tuesday, November 26 to 3,032.92 points from the 2,997.68 points recorded in the previous session.

At the close of transactions yesterday, the market capitalisation increased by N12.36 billion to settle at N1.063 trillion, in contrast to Monday’s closing value of N1.050 trillion.

During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N3.31 to sell at N43.90 per share versus the N40.59 per share it traded a day earlier, and 11 Plc appreciated by N16.75 to end the session at N230.00 per unit versus the preceding closing rate of N213.25 per unit.

On the flip side, Afriland Properties Plc slipped by 11 Kobo to sell at N15.81 per share, in contrast to the N15.92 per share it was transacted a day earlier.

There was a slump in the volume of securities traded in the session by 80.2 per cent to 327,425 units from the 1.7 million units traded in the preceding session, but there was a rise in the value of transactions by 141.9 per cent to N15.7 million from the N6.5 million traded on Monday, and the number of deals decreased by 55.0 per cent to nine deals from the 20 deals carried out a day earlier.

At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units worth N5.3 million.

Similarly, Aradel Holdings Plc maintained its position as the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with a turnover of 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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