Economy
Oil Prices Fall Ahead of OPEC+ Output Meeting
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell by nearly 2 per cent on Wednesday as investors awaited an imminent decision on production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
OPEC+ will meet on Thursday and the latest signal is that the 22-member alliance is likely to extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter of next year.
The group has been aiming to unwind output cuts through 2025 but a slowdown in global demand and rising output outside the group pose hurdles to that plan and have weighed on prices, as Brent crude futures shrank by $1.31 or 1.78 per cent to $72.31 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by $1.40 or 2 per cent to $68.54 per barrel.
OPEC+ members have cut around 5.86 million barrels per day of output, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since 2022 to support the market.
An output hike of 180,000 barrels per day was planned for January from the eight members involved in OPEC+’s most recent cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The hike has been delayed from October due to falling prices.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices moved higher today after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory decline of 5.1 million barrels for the week to November 29.
The change compared with a build of 1.23 million barrels for the week, as estimated by the American Petroleum Institute a day earlier. It also compared with an EIA-estimated draw of 1.8 million barrels for the prior week.
The authority also reported builds in fuel inventories for the period.
In gasoline (petrol), the EIA estimated an inventory build of 2.4 million barrels for the final week of November, compared with a build of 3.3 million barrels for the previous week.
Tensions across several countries also weighed on prices. In Syria, rebel forces that threatened to draw in forces from several oil-producing countries all lent support to oil prices.
In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and that its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.
In South Korea, lawmakers have submitted a bill to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law on Tuesday, which was reversed within hours, sparking a political crisis in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
Demand pressure continued despite the recent stronger-than-expected factory activity data out of China.
By Adedapo Adesanya
About 395,000 barrels per day of crude oil were delivered to the Dangote Refinery in December under the crude-for-Naira deal with the federal government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
The volume of black gold supplied to the Lagos-based facility was 40 per cent higher than the 280,000 barrels per day delivered in November.
According to a report from Argus, the crude receipts at the 650,000 barrels per day capacity Dangote refinery rose to a new high in December.
It gathered the data from its tracking systems as well as from Kpler and Vortexa data.
The report said that this was the fourth consecutive month that crude deliveries were all Nigerian and did not include any US WTI.
Deliveries of WTI had been anticipated in December, but did not materialise.
The Dangote Group said it is aiming for 350,000 barrels per day throughput in a first phase of operations.
It had achieved this mark in June as receipts hit 350,000 barrels per day but fell back after that. Since March, when crude delivery began to increase, estimated receipts have averaged a little under 275,000 barrels per day.
Recall that Dangote Refinery had bought some foreign cargoes when NNPC could not adequately supply it with the needed resources.
In July, President Bola Tinubu directed the NNPC to commence sales of crude oil in Naira to local private refiners as part of efforts to boost domestic capacity and reduce foreign exchange pressure on the economy.
Last month’s receipts included cargoes of Nigerian grades Escravos, Bonny Light, CJ Blend, Qua Iboe, and Erha.
Bonny Light was the largest single grade at 140,000 barrels per day.
It was disclosed that three deliveries on very large crude carriers (VLCC) helped boost receipts in the review month.
Argus added that no cargoes of Forcados or Amenam were delivered to Dangote last month, having previously been regular grades at the refinery.
Dangote Group is also maintaining a very consistent slate in terms of gravity and especially sulphur content.
Argus assessed Dangote’s December slate at a weighted average gravity of 36.3°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur content, compared with 36.4°API and under 0.2 per cent sulphur in November. In March-December, the slate averaged 36.3°API and again, under 0.2 per cent sulphur.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seplat Energy plans to increase its crude oil production by 140 per cent from about 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 barrels per day over the next six months, a top executive management disclosed this in a series of interviews with the Financial Times.
Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2024 approved Seplat’s acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil as part of a series of approvals.
The completion of the $1.28 billion Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.
The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.
“The assets have had very minimal investments until now,” the oil major’s chief financial officer, Mrs Eleanor Adaralegbe, told the newspaper.
“We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further,” she added.
The company also plans to revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow, which according to Seplat’s chief executive, Mr Roger Brown, will be done in a collaborative effort with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as legally mandated in the country’s oil and gas industry.
“We have no concerns working with NNPC . . . There’s been a massive change with President Tinubu, realising that production is a great way of getting dollars into the country and supporting the currency,” Mr Brown said.
This was backed up by Seplat’s chief operating officer, Mr Samson Ezugworie, who noted that some of the assets will require time and investment so they can begin to produce again after being left idle.
“We have over 600 wells drilled and barely 200 of them are producing. We have significant idle wells that need to be rejuvenated and brought back into production within a short period of time.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s external debt servicing costs surged by 38 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The surge translated to Nigeria’s apex bank spending a whopping $3.53 billion to service the country’s debts, indicating a $970 million jump compared to $2.56 billion during the same period in 2023.
This was contained in CBN’s International Payment Data published on its website.
The increase underscored the intensifying fiscal pressures facing Nigeria’s economy amid dwindling revenues, inflationary pressures, and currency depreciation.
A month-by-month analysis highlighted the scale of the challenge and showed that in January 2024, Nigeria spent $560.52 million on external debt servicing, marking a sharp increase from $112.35 million in January 2023.
February 2024 followed with $283.22 million, slightly below the $288.54 million recorded the previous year.
March 2024 showed a decline, with $276.17 million spent, compared to $400.47 million in March 2023, a 31 per cent drop.
In April 2024, debt servicing rose to $215.20 million, a 132 per cent increase, compared to $92.85 million in April 2023.
May 2024 saw the highest monthly expenditure of $854.37 million, a staggering 287 per cent jump from $221.05 million in May 2023.
By contrast, June 2024 recorded $50.82 million, slightly lower than the $54.36 million spent in June 2023.
The mid-year trend showed mixed movements as debt servicing fell to $542.50 million in July 2024, a 15 per cent decline from $641.69 million in July 2023.
August 2024 followed a similar trajectory, with $279.95 million spent compared to $309.96 million the previous year, a 10 per cent reduction.
However, September 2024 marked an increase, with $515.81 million spent, up 17 per cent from $439.06 million in September 2023.
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