Economy
OPEC+ Boost Output by 206kb/d as Iran War Limits Production
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.
Eight members of OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to the increase in May quota at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.
However, the rise will be in theory, as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has affected production.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route, since the end of February and cut exports from some OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These are the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began.
Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, such as Russia, are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. For Nigeria, even as Africa’s largest producer, it has not been able to keep production quotas steady.
The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.
Also meeting on Sunday, a separate OPEC+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.
May’s OPEC+ increase is the same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows.
A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day or up to 15 per cent of global supply.
The eight OPEC+ members have raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026. The sub-group holds its next meeting on May 3.
Market analysts have warned that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the closure of the strait is prolonged and continues, due to damage to energy assets across the critical Middle East region.
As of the time of this report, Brent crude is trading at $108 per barrel, below the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $109 per barrel.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Senate Public Accounts Committee has heard that Nigeria spent N1.16 trillion on fuel subsidy in 2021, while N1.20 trillion was deducted from federation crude oil sales proceeds during the same period.
The disclosure came from the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), Mr Mohammed Bello Shehu, during the committee’s ongoing investigation into the 2021 to 2023 Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) audit reports on the oil and gas sector.
According to the commission, crude and petroleum product losses cost N16.2 billion, pipeline repairs accounted for N22.05 billion, while strategic stock holding attracted N6.75 billion.
The revelations come against the backdrop of Nigeria’s long-running fuel subsidy regime, which successive governments maintained to keep the pump price of petrol artificially low despite mounting fiscal pressures.
Over the years, subsidy payments consumed trillions of Naira, significantly reducing revenues available to the three tiers of government and contributing to widening budget deficits.
The issue reached a turning point in May 2023 when President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy during his inauguration speech, declaring that “fuel subsidy is gone.” The decision followed years of concerns over the rising cost of the programme, allegations of fraud, and repeated recommendations by fiscal authorities and international financial institutions that the subsidy had become unsustainable.
The removal triggered a sharp increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), leading to higher transportation and living costs across the country. In response, the federal government introduced a series of palliative measures, including cash transfers, support for mass transit, and wage-related interventions, while arguing that savings from the subsidy would be redirected to infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other critical sectors of the economy.
The commission also argued that the current method of calculating the 13 per cent derivation fund undermines the constitutional intention of the policy.
Meanwhile, the committee stood down the Niger Delta Development Commission’s presentation until next Wednesday to allow lawmakers review its submission.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of the Auditor-General of the Federation, warning that he must appear before lawmakers next Tuesday or face compulsory appearance through the constitutional powers of the National Assembly.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Businesses in the country expect the Naira to gradually appreciate against the US Dollar between now and January 2027, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) July 2026 Business Expectations Survey Report released on Thursday.
The report showed that the Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained positive throughout the review period despite perceived macroeconomic challenges. It noted that all sectors expressed optimism about the economy, with the electricity, gas and water sector posting the highest Business Confidence Index of 59.4 points and the strongest expansion prospects for August 2026.
According to the report, “In July 2026, the Business Confidence Index was 5.7 points, reflecting continued optimistic sentiment among formal businesses.”
It attributed the positive sentiment mainly to increased demand (22.3 per cent), economic diversification (21.4 per cent), and improved access to finance (15.0 per cent). However, respondents identified inflation (27.7 per cent), energy-related challenges (23.4 per cent), insecurity (22.4 per cent), and heightened geopolitical uncertainties (16.5 per cent) as the major factors weighing on business confidence.
On the outlook by broad sector, the central bank said confidence remained positive across all sectors in July. The Industry sector recorded a modest improvement, with its index rising to 11.5 points from 10.5 points, while the Services sector increased to 3.6 points from 2.9 points.
By contrast, the Agriculture sector recorded a significant moderation, with its index falling to 3.4 points from 12.2 points.
Despite this, the apex bank said the six-month outlook remained upbeat, with confidence indices across all sectors indicating positive expectations over the review period.
On the macroeconomic outlook by region, the report noted a divergence in sentiment, with businesses in Northern Nigeria expressing stronger confidence than their Southern counterparts in July. Nevertheless, respondents across all regions maintained positive expectations for August.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A programme, tagged Probate and Unclaimed Monies Awareness and Investor Clinic, has been organised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The event, held on Thursday, August 6, 2026, was put together to educate investors and beneficiaries on how to recover unclaimed monies and inherited investments in the Nigerian capital market.
It is part of a nationwide awareness campaign launched by the capital market regulator in collaboration with Meristem Registrars and Probate Services Limited to improve investor protection, financial literacy and confidence in the capital market.
According to the Director General of the agency, Mr Emomotimi Agama, the campaign is to help investors and beneficiaries understand the procedures for recovering investments due to them while strengthening public confidence in the Nigerian capital market.
Thousands of investors and beneficiaries across the country remain unaware that they may be entitled to unclaimed funds arising from scheme consideration, return monies or inherited investments belonging to deceased relatives, largely because they are unfamiliar with the required documentation and claims procedures.
“Investor protection remains at the heart of the Commission’s mandate. Through this awareness campaign and Investor Clinic, we are bringing regulators and market operators together to help investors and beneficiaries understand the claims process, recover investments due to them and strengthen public confidence in the Nigerian capital market,” the SEC DG stated.
At the programme, participants received one-on-one support from SEC officials, registrars and other capital market professionals on issues relating to unclaimed investments, share ownership, probate, share transmission and beneficiary claims.
