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Economy

Oil Market Slides Amid Supply Surplus Concerns

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global oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market depreciated on Friday as analysts projected a supply surplus next year on weak demand despite the decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to delay output hikes and extend deep production cuts to the end of 2026.

During the session, Brent crude futures shed 97 cents or 1.4 per cent to trade at $71.12 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost $1.10 or 1.6 per cent to close at $67.20 a barrel.

For the week, Brent lost more than 2.5 per cent while WTI saw a drop of 1.2 per cent.

OPEC+ pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.

Weak global oil demand and the prospect of OPEC+ ramping up production as soon as prices rise have weighed on trading.

The alliance had already postponed twice the beginning of the output increase. January 2025 was set as the point from which producers would begin to add supply, but that has since changed due to a slowdown in global demand – especially from top crude importer China.

OPEC+, which is responsible for 50 per cent of the world’s supply, will also face competition from rising output elsewhere, which has forced it to postpone the plan several times.

On Friday, Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the primary reason for OPEC’s deferral of the production increase to the start of the second quarter is that the first quarter in any year is a weak consumption period.

“The first quarter is not a good quarter to bring volumes,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said. “That quarter is known to be a quarter for building stocks.”

The deferral, while primarily motivated by fundamentals, would give OPEC+ a better view of China’s growth, Europe’s growth, US policy, interest rates, and inflation in key developed markets.

Bank of America forecast that increasing oil surpluses will drive the price of Brent to an average of $65 a barrel in 2025, while oil demand growth will rebound to 1 million barrels per day next year, the bank said in a note on Friday.

Also in a note, HSBC expects a smaller oil market surplus of 0.2 million barrels per day, from 0.5 million barrels per day previously.

Brent has largely stayed in a tight range of $70-$75 per barrel in the past month, as investors weighed weak demand signals in China and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Wale Edun’s Claims of 1.8mbpd Crude Output Contrast Official Data

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wale edun

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, says Nigeria’s crude oil production has risen to 1.8 million barrels ​a day, contrasting with available production data.

Speaking in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday on ⁠the sidelines of the International Monetary ​Fund and World Bank Group spring ​meetings in Washington D.C., the Minister said the current oil output would generate fiscal breathing space that will allow the government to support vulnerable ​households as it ploughs ahead with ​reforms.

Nigeria, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is Africa’s largest oil producer.

Mr Edun said rising crude production was positive for Nigeria’s revenue, foreign exchange ​and the country’s fiscal situation.

“It gives us that extra fiscal space ‌within ⁠which to look at … helping the vulnerable households at this time,” he told the publication, noting that support would be targeted, adding “there is ​no thought ​of any ⁠return or retardation to broad untargeted subsidies.”

Mr Edun also said the Bola Tinubu-led administration was also ​committed to continuing its reform ​programme.

“Nigeria is in a position where the resilience that has been built in ⁠the ​economy is actually very ​obvious for all to see,” he said.

Despite the 1.8 million barrels per day figure claim, Business Post reports that production data for March 2026 from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria attained 1.546 million barrels per day, made up of 1.382 million barrels per day of crude, 42,809 barrels per day of blended condensate and 120,442 barrels per day of unblended condensate.

The average crude production represents 92 per cent of the OPEC quota, which is fixed at 1.5 million barrels per day.

NUPRC Nigeria crude output March 2026

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Economy

SEC Opens Capital Market to Free Trade Zone Companies

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SEC Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Securities and Exchange Commission Nigeria (SEC) has unveiled a new regulatory framework that would allow companies operating within free trade zones to raise capital from the Nigerian public, subject to strict eligibility and disclosure requirements.

The proposal, titled New Rules for Public Offering of Securities by a Free Trade Zone Entity, is anchored on provisions of the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 and is designed to integrate free trade zone enterprises into the domestic capital market while strengthening investor protection.

Under the proposed rules, only entities duly licensed by recognised free zone authorities, such as the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority and the Oil and Gas Free Zones Authority, will be eligible to issue shares to the public.

The commission clarified that the rules will apply strictly to free trade zone entities (FTZEs), excluding companies operating outside designated zones, even if licensed by zone authorities. It also emphasised that no FTZE will be permitted to offer securities to the public without prior approval from the Commission.

To qualify, an FTZE must demonstrate a minimum of three years’ operating track record immediately preceding its application, with at least two years of independent business activity within a free trade zone. Additionally, such entities are required to have competent senior management and a minimum paid-up share capital of not less than N7.5 billion.

The SEC said FTZEs seeking to access the capital market must subject themselves to Nigeria’s tax laws and comply fully with ongoing disclosure and reporting obligations applicable to publicly listed companies.

The proposed framework also outlines extensive registration requirements. Issuers will be required to submit evidence of licensing by a free zone authority, constitutional documents, and verified details of shareholding structure and board composition.

A “No Objection” letter from the relevant free zone authority will also be mandatory, alongside a commitment to list the offered shares on a registered securities exchange.

The SEC noted that the rules are intended to provide clarity on eligibility criteria and operational conditions for FTZEs seeking to conduct public offerings, thereby deepening the capital market and aligning free zone operations with national financial system standards.

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Economy

Guinness Nigeria Shareholders to Pocket N4.38bn Interim Dividend for Q1’26

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Guinness Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Shareholders of Guinness Nigeria Plc will share about N4.38 billion as an interim dividend for the first quarter of 2026, the board has disclosed.

This cash reward amounts to N2.00 per share, as the company has shares outstanding of 2,190,382,819 on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

The brewer stated that the interim dividend would be paid to investors whose names appear on the register of members as of the close of business on April 20, 2026.

The dividend payout is being proposed following the sustained profitability reflected in the unaudited financial results of the company in the first three months of this year and its “strong performance in FY 2025.”

It would be “paid from distributable profits in accordance with Sections 426–428 of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020.”

Analysis of the performance of the brewery giant between January and March 2026 showed that revenue grew by 4 per cent on a year-on-year basis to N122.77 billion from N118.34 billion in the same period of last year, while the gross profit contracted to N43.48 billion from N44.52 billion due to prevailing cost pressures within the operating environment.

The company’s operating profit also shrank to N17.18 billion from N18.00 billion in the first quarter of 2025 due to elevated marketing & distribution costs and administrative expenses.

However, the reduction in net finance costs to N1.43 billion from N7.72 billion in Q1 of 2025 helped the organisation to grow its post-tax profit to N10.39 billion in the period under review versus the N7.03 billion recorded in the corresponding period of last year.

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