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Economy

Cautious US, Europe Interest Rate Cuts Approach Weakens Crude Oil

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Crude Oil Pipelines

By Adedapo Adesanya

It was a bad day for the crude oil market on Thursday after central banks in the US and Europe signalled caution over further easing of monetary policy amid concerns that weak economic activity could dent oil demand next year.

Brent crude futures fell by 51 cents or 0.7 per cent during the session to $72.88 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January delivery lost 67 cents or 1 per cent to trade at $69.91 per barrel.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter percentage point to the 4.25 per cent – 4.50 per cent range as expected on Wednesday.

However, the Chairman of the US central bank, Mr Jerome Powell, warned that stubborn inflation would make the bank more cautious about cutting rates next year.

Market analysts warned that the remarks showed that policymakers are starting to align with the prospects for sweeping economic changes under the Trump administration set to commence on January 20.

The US Dollar rose to a two-year high, making oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

The Bank of England policymakers held interest rates steady on Thursday, while officials disagreed over how to respond to the UK’s slowing economy.

Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates as Mr Donald Trump’s vows to impose tariffs cast a shadow over the country’s export-reliant economy.

The oil market is widely expected to be in a surplus next year, with analysts predicting that supply will outpace demand by at least 1 million barrels per day.

Oil supply could tighten next year if Trump, a Republican, delivers on campaign promises of cracking down on Iranian oil exports.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s administration has also ramped up sanctions on Iranian entities, with three vessels involved in trading Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals sanctioned on Thursday.

In China, the world’s top oil importer, there are early signs of further decline in demand with the state-backed energy giant Sinopec saying it expects China’s petroleum consumption to peak in 2027 as fuel demand weakens.

Brent futures prices have shed more than 5 per cent so far this year, setting up a second consecutive annual loss, as a faltering Chinese economy weighed heavily on crude oil demand.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

CBN Gives BDC Operators Access to Buy FX from Official Market

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Naira redesigning1

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has granted Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators temporary access to the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), which is the official market, as part of efforts to further strengthen the Naira in the currency market.

The CBN in a notice on Friday said BDC operators would have access to FX at the official market from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025, with a weekly cap of $25,000.

Transactions require upfront funding at prevailing rates and must follow a maximum of 1 per cent spread.

The Naira traded at the spot market at N1,541.38/$1 based on computation on the Bloomberg BMatch system computed by FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited.

The CBN recently launched the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) to build transparency in the system, but this excluded street forex hawkers. This initiative has fortified the value of the Naira against the US Dollar at the official market.

The platform, which became operational on December 2, 2024, has enhanced operational efficiency in Nigeria’s FX market, with banks mandated to be on the system to trade forex.

The EFEMS initiative, according to Mrs Omolara Duke, the CBN’s director of the financial markets department, was designed to ensure “transparent, fair, and efficient FX trading, minimise counterparty risks, and enforce compliance with CBN regulations.”

Between December 2 when the new electronic trading platform commenced and December 19, 2024, the Naira recorded over N250 gain over the Dollar in the official FX market.

The CBN also issued comprehensive guidelines for the operations of the interbank foreign exchange (FX) trading system via EFEMS, pegging the minimum tradable amount at $100,000, with incremental clip sizes of $50,000.00, to promote transparency and efficiency in the FX market.

This development has forced currency speculators and illicit market operators to look elsewhere, pushing up demand to the parallel market and the BDCs.

To further ease the pressure on these unregulated markets, the CBN will allow BDCs to access the market with the hope of checking demand and further supporting the Naira.

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Economy

Businesses Foresee Naira Depreciation in Q1 of 2025

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Naira-Denominated Assets

By Adedapo Adesanya

A recent survey by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says businesses have projected depreciation of the Naira in the first three months of 2025.

In its Business Expectation Survey Report for November 2024, the CBN said despite this expectation, there are several businesses which expressed optimism about the macroeconomic environment.

The report noted that firms’ outlook on the volume of business activities, financial conditions, access to credit, volume of total orders and average capacity utilisation, were pessimistic.

“The overall confidence index (CI) on the macroeconomy indicated that businesses were optimistic in November 2024.

“Businesses expect the Naira to depreciate in the current month, next month and next 3 months but appreciate in the next 6 months,” the report said.

“The optimism on business outlook in the current month is driven by the opinion of respondents from all the sectors.

“The Construction Sector expressed optimism on its operations in the review month.

“The outlook of respondents on the volume of business activities, the volume of total orders, financial conditions, and access to credit were negative in the review month. the volume of business activity respondents expressed optimism on the volume of business activity for the next month and subsequent periods under review,” it added.

The report also showed that businesses hope to employ more workers in the month of December 2024 with the agriculture sector having the highest prospect for expansion.

Meanwhile, the CBN in its latest Consumer Expectation Survey Report said that consumers were pessimistic about the macro economy in November.

According to the CBN report, households projected a rise in the cost of transportation, rent, car/vehicle, house purchase, and medical expenses this month.

The report showed that 61.1 per cent and 57.6 per cent of respondents perceived that prices of non-durable and durable household items, though high, will keep declining this month and next month respectively.

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Economy

Nipco, Two Others Revive NASD Index by 0.46%

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NASD Unlisted Securities Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.46 per cent gain on Thursday, December 19, boosted by three stocks, which closed higher at the close of transactions.

Nipco Plc improved its closing price by N13.64 during the trading day to N150.10 per share compared with the preceding trading day’s N136.46 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc gained 33 Kobo to end the session at N3.88 per unit versus Wednesday’s closing value of N3.55 per unit, and UBN Property Plc appreciated by 16 Kobo to settle at N1.89 per share, in contrast to midweek’s closing price of N1.73 per share.

On the flip side, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc depreciated by 1 kobo to trade at 17 Kobo per unit compared with the preceding trading session’s 18 Kobo per unit.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation of the bourse increased by N4.73 billion to finish the trading day at N1.034 trillion compared with the midweek trading session’s N1.029 trillion.

In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 13.77 points to wrap the session at 3,017.07 points compared with 3,003.30 points recorded in the previous session.

On Thursday, the volume of securities traded by investors surged by 603.9 per cent to 2.3 million units from the 59.624 units recorded a day earlier.

However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 48.9 per cent to N2.3 million from N4.6 million as the number of deals declined by 12 per cent to 22 deals from the 25 deals carried out on Wednesday.

Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units worth N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.3 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.7 million units sold for N5.3 million.

Aradel Holdings Plc also remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units valued at N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.3 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.7 million units worth N5.3 billion.

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