Economy
Fitch Sees Nigeria’s External Debt at $5.2bn, Maintains Stable Outlook
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.
The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.
The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.
The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.
The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.
Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”
It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.
However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.
“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.
The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.
Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.
“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.
It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.
However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian equity market showed no signs of slowing down, as it further appreciated by 1.30 per cent on Friday on the back of sustained buying pressure.
Unlike the preceding sessions, investor sentiment was bullish yesterday after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended with 43 price gainers and 26 price losers, implying a positive market breadth index, the first this week.
UPDC gained 10.00 per cent to close at N4.40, Academy Press also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to quote at N7.70, Haldane McCall improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.97, Zichis soared by 9.94 per cent to N15.60, and Wema Bank added 9.84 per cent to settle at N31.25.
Conversely, Meyer lost 9.92 per cent to sell for N16.80, Trans-Nationwide Express also crashed by 9.92 per cent to end at N7.90, C&I Leasing slipped by 8.53 per cent to N5.90, Omatek dipped by 7.34 per cent to N2.02, and eTranzact decreased by 5.28 per cent to N17.05.
When the bourse closed its doors to business, the All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 2,884.81 points to 225,722.49 points from 222,837.68 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N1.858 trillion to N145.335 trillion from N143.477 trillion.
A look at the activity chart showed that market participants transacted 627.6 million shares worth N44.5 billion in 55,232 deals during the trading day compared with the 667.9 million shares valued at N38.1 billion traded in 53,062 deals a day earlier.
This indicated that the volume of transactions went down by 6.03 per cent, the value of trades went up by 16.80 per cent, and the number of deals jumped by 4.09 per cent.
Access Holdings closed the session as investors’ toast, with a turnover of 75.6 million units worth N2.4 billion. UBA transacted 43.1 million units valued at N2.3 billion, Wema Bank exchanged 41.5 million units for N1.3 billion, Zenith Bank traded 38.4 million units valued at N5.2 billion, and Universal Insurance sold 29.5 million units for N35.9 million.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Mr Taiwo Oyedele has set some goals he intends to achieve as Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.
While taking over from his predecessor, Mr Wale Edun, on Thursday, the tax expert assured that he has no plans to overturn some of the reforms already put in place by the former occupier of the seat.
In a message on Friday, he emphasised that, “Our immediate task is to consolidate these gains, deepen ongoing reforms, and ensure they translate into tangible benefits for all Nigerians.”
He promised to ensure fiscal discipline by embracing transparent and prudent management of public resources, while also harmonising revenue administration, broadening the tax base, reducing the burden on the vulnerable population, and supporting economic growth.
Mr Oyedele further said his other strategic priorities include creating a predictable and investor-friendly environment anchored on policy coherence, consistency, and clarity; and aligning efforts across all tiers and institutions to maximise policy impact.
He also said efforts would be made to deepen collaboration with the private sector and other key stakeholders for data-driven policy design, co-implementation, and feedback for continuous improvement.
According to him, “Good policy design alone is not enough; success will be defined by execution. We are committed to disciplined implementation, accountability, and measurable results.”
“I look forward to working with colleagues across government, the private sector, and all Nigerians as we move from reform to result, accelerate growth and build a more stable, inclusive, and prosperous economy,” he stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further appreciated by 0.23 per cent on Thursday, April 23, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) adding 8.99 points to close at 3,969.96 points against the previous day’s 3,968 points.
The rise in the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc by N2.86 to N69.34 per unit from N66.48 per unit raised the market capitalisation of the NASD bourse by N5.38 billion to N2.380 trillion from N2.375 trillion.
Yesterday, there were two price losers, led by Food Concepts Plc, which lost 29 Kobo to sell at N2.65 per share versus N2.94 per share, while UBN Property Plc dipped by 22 Kobo to N2.03 per unit from N2.25 per unit.
During the session, the volume of securities traded declined by 97.9 per cent to 451,522 units from 21.5 million units on Wednesday, the value of securities depreciated by 52.32 per cent to N23.6 million from N49.5 million, and the number of deals depreciated by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from 28 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.5 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
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