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Octa Broker Analysis: Why the U.S. Dollar is Struggling Amid Global Trade Turmoil
The U.S. dollar (USD), the buck or the greenback, as it is often informally referred to, has long occupied a rather exclusive position in global finance. Ever since the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the greenback has played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border transactions and smoothing international trade flows, in addition to serving as a primary reserve currency for central banks around the world. Being the official currency of the world’s largest economy, the United States, has certainly helped the dollar maintain its dominant position. Indeed, the sheer size of the U.S. economy, its deep and liquid financial markets, strong private property rights and the rule of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and last but not least, the unrivalled power of the U.S. military, made the dollar the most trusted global currency. As a result, the greenback became what market participants call ‘a safe-haven currency’, a refuge for investors during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market turmoil. Most recently, however, the instability in global financial markets triggered by rising trade tariffs and exacerbated by fears of a global recession seems to have upended this narrative, undermining the dollar’s established role.
Trade tensions
The U.S. dollar has been depreciating almost relentlessly since mid-January. In just three and a half months, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, lost more than 10% in value (from 13 January high to 21 April low). On 11 April, it breached the critical 100.00 level, and although it has since increased slightly, it remains by far the worst-performing currency among other major currencies this year so far. This decline has raised an important question: Is the U.S. dollar losing its safe-haven status, or is it merely a temporary setback.
The catalyst for the dollar’s slide is rooted in the escalating trade tensions, particularly the aggressive tariff policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent weeks, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much steeper duties imposed on key trading partners like China, which, in turn, retaliated with its own 125% levies on U.S. goods. These moves have stoked fears of a global recession, as international supply chains may get disrupted with potentially devastating consequences for the world economy. Historically, such uncertainty would bolster the dollar, as investors seek the safety of U.S. assets. However, this time around, the greenback is faltering, while alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) are gaining ground.
Hedging
Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, says that the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness is driven by a diversification shift among investors into alternative safe-haven currencies, motivated by risk-hedging and fears over the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. ‘We are witnessing a major reallocation of capital. Market participants realise that in a trade war, there are no winners. In the short term, the U.S. economy will face the consequences, and they will not be pretty. Big players with large investments in the U.S. realised they needed to hedge their currency risk, so they moved into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Also, higher tariffs are fuelling recession fears, so traders have increased their bets on additional rate cuts by the Fed [Federal Reserve]. That too had a bearish effect on the greenback’.
Indeed, on April 21, USDCHF dropped below the 0.80500 mark, the level unseen in almost 14 years, while USDJPY was hovering near the critical 140.00 area, a drop below which will open the way towards new multi-year lows. Significant shifts in capital flow allocations have prompted some analysts to conclude that the U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence. However, Octa analysts have a different view and believe that the current situation doesn’t reflect a broad erosion of investors’ long-term trust in the U.S. dollar. Kar Yong Ang said: ‘The issue isn’t so much a fundamental loss of faith in the U.S. dollar’s long-term prospects. What we are witnessing right now is a dramatic, yet logical response to the probable economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies. You have an administration, which is effectively re-structuring the global trade order, that does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the Fed and apparently believes in a weak dollar. If you’re a foreign investor in the U.S., you simply cannot afford to be unhedged these days. But also, let’s not forget that the greenback has been falling from relatively high levels, so a healthy downward correction was long overdue’. In other words, the recent slide in the U.S. dollar is not an unusual phenomenon or an anomaly; it is quite natural and probably a short-term occurrence. In fact, even after an 11% drop in 2025, the greenback is still some 38% above its historical low set in 2008. Furthermore, it is clear that once key global actors adopt more conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric and engage in active trade negotiations, the situation will normalise immediately.
Conclusion
As for the dollar’s long-term prospects, its dominant status will likely continue to be challenged, but no single currency can take its crown for now. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 88% of international transactions, and its dominance in Forex markets remains unmatched, with daily trading volumes dwarfing those of the yen or franc. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half (57.8%) of the $12.4 trillion in global foreign exchange reserves were in U.S. dollars. Therefore, while the greenback may not be the automatic refuge it once was, its role as a Forex cornerstone endures for now.
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively
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Woodfibre LNG Marks 2025 as a Year of Construction Progress, Environmental Stewardship and Community Partnership
Over the past year, the project advanced from planning into visible, on-the-ground execution. Major construction milestones included the pouring of foundations for key modules, continued progress on marine piling, and further implementation of modular construction techniques designed to reduce on-site footprint while accelerating delivery timelines.
These advancements were achieved through close collaboration with project partners, suppliers and contractors, and in partnership with the Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw (Squamish Nation).
In 2025, Woodfibre LNG, a member of the RGE group of companies founded by Sukanto Tanoto, continued to operate its floatel workforce accommodation solution, designed to minimise pressure on local housing and community services. As of November, two floatels were in active operation, providing high-quality, safe and comfortable living conditions for the project workforce while supporting construction efficiency.
Environmental protection remained a central focus throughout the year. The project’s Marine Mammal Monitoring Programme, which includes hydroacoustic monitoring, exclusion zones and shore-based observation posts, delivered measurable outcomes by enabling real-time operational decisions, including pauses to marine activities when marine mammals entered exclusion areas.
In parallel, remediation of legacy materials from the former pulp mill site continued, with hundreds of thousands of tonnes of historical waste removed. These efforts have contributed to improving site conditions for both local communities and marine and terrestrial ecosystems in Howe Sound.
Woodfibre LNG’s Operator Training Programme, delivered in partnership with the Squamish Nation Training and Trades Centre and the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT), progressed throughout the year. The programme’s first cohort of graduates transitioned into full-time roles, supporting the development of long-term, skilled local employment opportunities linked to the project.
Through its Community Partnership Programme (CPP), Woodfibre LNG continued to invest in local communities across the Sea-to-Sky corridor. In 2025, the programme surpassed $1 million in total grants since its inception, supporting initiatives in sports, healthcare, emergency services, arts and culture, and youth development.
Luke Schauerte, CEO of Woodfibre LNG, said, “2025 has been a year of significant progress for Woodfibre LNG. We are proud of what our team and partners have accomplished together and look forward to building on this momentum in the year ahead.”
With more than half of the project’s development now complete, Woodfibre LNG remains focused on advancing construction safely and responsibly, while maintaining strong partnerships with Indigenous communities, local stakeholders and regulators.
As the project looks ahead to 2026, Woodfibre LNG continues its work toward delivering lower-carbon, responsibly produced Canadian energy to international markets.
Hashtag: #RGE #PacificEnergy #PacificCanbriamEnergy #WoodfibreLNG #LNG #environment #partnerships #LNG #liquefiednaturalgas #energy #sustainability
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About Woodfibre LNG
The Woodfibre LNG Project is owned by Woodfibre LNG Limited Partnership, owned 70 per cent by Pacific Energy Corporation (Canada) Limited and 30 per cent by Enbridge Inc. The Woodfibre LNG facility is being built on the site of the former Woodfibre pulp mill site, which is located about seven kilometres southwest of Squamish, B.C. Woodfibre LNG will source its natural gas from Pacific Canbriam Energy, a Canadian company with operations in Northeastern British Columbia. Pacific Canbriam is an industry leader in sustainable natural gas production. Woodfibre LNG and Pacific Canbriam Energy are subsidiaries of Pacific Energy Corporation Limited. Woodfibre LNG is the first industrial project in Canada to recognise a non-treaty Indigenous government, Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw (Squamish Nation), as a full environmental regulator.
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New Opportunities in Southeast Asia’s Digital Shift: Thailand Emerges as the New ASEAN’s AI Hub
The expansion of AI and data centers (DCs) in Thailand is driving several transformative trends:
- Changing data traffic patterns. As DCs multiply in Bangkok, Chonburi, and beyond, Thailand is evolving from a traditional data “transit point” into a regional “convergence hub.” East-west digital traffic is accelerating, with Thai DC clusters increasingly meeting the computing demands of Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific.
- Optimized data routing. Data flows that once relied on submarine cables via Hong Kong and Singapore are gradually shifting to land-based digital corridors linking China, Laos, and Thailand. This route reduces data transmission latency from southwestern China to Southeast Asia.
- Elevated business expectations. Demand is shifting beyond “sufficient bandwidth” toward “high-quality experience.” Thailand sits in a “latency sweet spot” for key Asia-Pacific markets, with latencies to Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia falling within an optimal range—a crucial advantage for latency-sensitive sectors like autonomous driving, telemedicine, and fintech.
New opportunities inevitably bring new challenges, and Thailand also addresses the following three challenges:
1. Massive traffic impacting existing networks: Compared with mature hubs like Singapore, Thailand has insufficient international submarine cables. A large volume of cross-border data still needs to be transmitted through detours. Meanwhile, as DC investments continue to accelerate, traffic will keep rising. Analysis shows that by 2029, Thailand’s DC capacity may reach 2000 MW, with cross-region traffic surging to 630 Tbps. The current network architecture is no longer capable of supporting such heavy traffic.
2. Latency advantages not fully realized: Despite its geographic advantages, Thailand’s network latency performance has yet to reach its full potential. Routes to key markets, like China, still require third-party transit. What’s more, traditional network scheduling lacks intelligent route selection capabilities, making it difficult to provide deterministic assurance for latency-sensitive services like financial transactions and real-time AI interactions.
3. Potential risks in network reliability: Thailand’s network reliability faces structural challenges. Single points of failure have previously caused hours-long interruptions to critical services, directly undermining enterprise users’ confidence.
To overcome these challenges, Thailand can take a systematic approach to upgrading its digital infrastructure, aiming to build next-generation AI-ready networks.
1. Building ultra-high-bandwidth “sea-land” connectivity. By actively introducing new submarine cables, Thailand can significantly enhance its connectivity with the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Meanwhile, accelerating the construction and expansion of key terrestrial cable routes—such as China-Laos-Thailand and Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore—will transform Thailand’s geographic advantage into a tangible connectivity advantage.
2. Optimizing network routes to create a regional low-latency core. Strengthening the Kunming-Laos-Thailand terrestrial cable route will continuously reduce transmission latency between China and Thailand, meeting the needs of real-time applications. In addition, the introduction of autonomous networks will enable automatic selection of the optimal, shortest route, shifting from “best effort” to “deterministic low latency.”
3. Designing a “never-interrupted” high-resilience architecture. Deploying active-active DC networks with millisecond-level switchover capabilities ensures the continuity of core services. Meanwhile, AI-driven intelligent O&M can reduce fault detection and diagnosis from hours to minutes.
Thailand’s booming AI and DC industries are driving rapid growth in regional and cross-border business demand. In this trend, network infrastructure construction centered on DCs is the core engine that drives AI transformation, propelling Thailand toward its vision of becoming the new AI hub for ASEAN.
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MyRepublic Launches Card Sub, Singapore’s First Subscription Service for Trading Card Game Fans
Hashtag: #CardSub, #MyRepublic #MyRepublicCardSub #CardSubSG #TCG #GeeksUseUs
https://myrepublic.net/sg/
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https://www.instagram.com/myrepublicsg/
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MyRepublic
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