Economy

Total Nigeria: Whistle Blowing on Solid First Quarter

Published

9 years ago

20/04/2017

By ARM Securities

In keeping with the rave in town, we beam our equity strategy searchlight on a leading Oil Marketing Company (OMC), Total Nigeria Plc. (Total), which is scheduled to report 1st quarter earnings in the last week of April.

Despite its striking FY 16 earnings, which was almost four-fold higher YoY with EPS at N43.58, Total’s share price has declined 9.7% YTD (post result release: – 3.7%)—underperforming the broader NSEASI.

In our view, the weak appetite for the stock was underpinned by the company’s disappointing final dividend announcement of only N7.00 which brought total DPS to N17.00, with the implied pay-out ratio of 39% well behind its average of 84% over the last decade.

That said, the stock is typically prone to big moves after earnings releases and can easily gap up if the numbers are as strong as expected.

For full-year ended 2016, revenue grew 39.9% YoY to N290.9billion, largely reflecting a 38% YoY increase in petrol sales. The jump in PMS turnover reflects higher prices (+42% YoY to an average of N123/litre) which neutered volume weakness. Elsewhere, sales of lubricants climbed 53% YoY as the company raised lubes prices even as NGN depreciation at the parallel market pulled back importation of lubes to create scope for market share expansion for domestic players.

Consequently, gross profit was 94% higher relative to prior year with corresponding margin jumping to a decade high of 16.9% (+4.7pps YoY).

The foregoing combined with efficient cost control (OPEX: +1.3% YoY) to drive a four-fold YoY expansion in earnings.

Total reported its highest gross margin on record of 24.2% (+12.2pps QoQ) in Q4 16 in line with those of its close rival (Forte Oil Plc).

In our view, the upsurge reflects price increases in lubes and deregulated product segments (LPG, AGO, DPK) which more than offset weaker petrol sales.

Irrespective, N9 billion in other expenses mainly due to N7.4billion in foreign exchange loss1 moderated the impact of its record gross margin to leave EPS at N9.32 (+17.3% QoQ and +147.9% YoY). Barring the impact of the FX loss, Q4 16 EPS would have printed at N36.00 (FY 16: +489.4% YoY to N70.26).

For Q1 17, we expect petrol volumes to head further south owing to higher prices and supply constraints.

Specifically, we forecast a 10% QoQ decline in petrol volumes to 373million litres. That said, as with Q4 16, higher prices across petrol (67% YoY to N145/litre), diesel (60% YoY to N234.5/litre), kerosene (40% YoY to N311.56/litre), and lubricants (+18% average) as well as resilient volumes in these segments (excluding petrol) guide our Q1 17E sales of N75.7billion (+27% YoY, +7% QoQ).

Consequently, our gross margin expectation for the quarter is 20.2% (+5.3pps YoY, -3.9pps QoQ).

Further down, the flat movement in the interbank market (N305/$) and appreciation at the parallel market (+20% to N390/$2), compared to prior quarter, should dispel foreign exchange losses in the period.

To be clear, we now see scope for FX gains on the Trade creditors line—pegged to the parallel market.

This possibility notwithstanding, we take the cautious approach of discounting potential currency induced gains. Irrespective, we expect strong underlying performance over Q1 17, with an EPS estimate of N17.04 (83% QoQ and 104% YoY) leaving prospect for an interim dividend payment.

Over FY 17, despite expected higher average petrol pump price of N145/litre (2016 average: N123/litre) as well hike in lubes prices, weaker petrol volumes should moderate total sales growth to 8.5% YoY (to N315.6billion).

On cost, notwithstanding recent NGN appreciation at the parallel market which should ordinarily moderate input cost, our average crude oil price (22% YoY to $55/bbl.) and NGN forecasts (18% to N360/$) should leave COGS at elevated levels.

Consequently, gross margin should come in 20bps lower YoY at 16.7%. Furtherdown, amidst the still elevated payables, second order impact of weaker naira underpins our expectation for FX loss of N6.4bilion over 2017.

The foregoing should combine with higher net finance charges (+24% YoY to N717million), reflecting absence of payment of accrued interest on delayed subsidy, to drive our FY 17 EPS to N39.8 (-9% YoY) with total dividend at N19.88 (50% pay-out).

Total has had a good run over the last one year and currently trades at a P/E of 6.2x relative to 12.9x for peers. Net adjustments to our models drive our FVE 8% higher to N384.72, which implies a 43% upside from last closing price. We retain a BUY rating on the stock.

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

Economy

Six Price Gainers Rally OTC Securities Exchange by 2.09%

Published

1 hour ago

10/02/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Six price gainers lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 2.09 per cent on Monday, February 9, amid a surge in activity level.

According to data, the volume of securities significantly increased by 3,499.1 per cent to 13.3 million units from the 384,784 units recorded in the preceding trading session, as the value of securities soared by 518.0 per cent to N99.3 million from N16.1 million, and the number of deals moved up by 95.8 per cent to 47 deals from the preceding session’s 24 deals.

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc ended the day as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 16.9 million units exchanged for N699.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 23.2 million units valued at N123.6 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.8 million units traded for N118.5 million.

However, Geo-Fluids Plc became the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 23.2 million units worth N123.6 million, as CSCS Plc was pushed down the pecking order as second with 16.9 million units transacted for N699.9 million, while Mass Telecom Innovation Plc sold 15.1 million units for N6.1 million.

The price gainers were led yesterday by Okitipupa Plc after it gained N17.00 to trade at N237.00 per share versus the previous price of N220.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N6.00 to sell at N66.00 per unit versus N60.00 per unit, and CSCS Plc grew by N5.35 to N58.85 per share from N53.50 per share.

Further, IPWA Plc appreciated by 23 Kobo to N2.59 per unit from N2.36 per unit, UBN Property Plc increased its value by 19 Kobo to N2.19 per share from N2.00 per share, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc advanced by 5 Kobo to 59 Kobo per unit from 54 Kobo per unit.

However, Nipco Plc lost N9.00 on Monday to close at N250.00 per share versus last Friday’s price of N259.00 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 22 Kobo to N4.08 per unit from N4.30 per unit.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation of the bourse was up by N46.2 billion to N2.253 trillion from N2.207 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumped 77.22 points to 3,766.94 points from 3,689.72 points.

Economy

Naira Trades N1,354 Per Dollar at NAFEX

Published

2 hours ago

10/02/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading of the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) ended bullish for the Naira as it gained N11.93 or 0.87 per cent against the US Dollar on Monday, February 9, to trade at N1,354.26/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,366.19/$1.

It also appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N12.03 to settle at N1,845.72/£1 versus last Friday’s closing price of N1,857.75/£1, but depreciated against the Euro by 69 Kobo to quote at N1,613.19/€1, in contrast to the N1,612.52/€1 it was exchanged last Friday.

At the GTBank forex desk, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the Dollar yesterday by N4 to close at N1,379/$1 versus the previous rate of N1,383/$1, and at the parallel market, it was flat at N1,450/$1.

The fortification of the Nigerian currency in the currency market on Monday was driven by forex liquidity, strong oil receipts, and flows from foreign investors attracted by the high yields on the country’s debt market.

Speaking at a forum on Monday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, declared that the bank’s reforms have established economic stability, evidenced by a significant reduction in inflation and growing external reserves, which he stated stood at $49 billion as of February 5, 2026.

He also highlighted the stability of the FX market, noting that the CBN is now accumulating foreign exchange from the market to enhance sustainability.

“By that, I mean that we now allow the market to generally find its level; many times, the Central Bank itself goes in to buy foreign exchange. The premium between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed to under 2 per cent,” Mr Cardoso stated.

The CBN chief said the reforms of the monetary authority—anchored on disinflation, FX market normalisation, and financial-system resilience—are already strengthening real-sector confidence.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was in a recovery mode as investors took advantage of the drop in prices to add to their portfolios.

The pullback followed a turbulent few days in which Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to as low as $60,000 before rebounding. It rose 0.5 per cent on Monday to $70,415.57, as Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.9 per cent to trade at $2,116.42.

Further, Ripple (XRP) improved by 1.4 per cent to $1.44, Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 0.8 per cent to $54.66, Solana (SOL) grew by 0.5 per cent to $87.11, and Cardano (ADA) added 0.2 per cent to settle at $0.2704.

On the flip side, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 0.6 per cent to $638.34, and Dogecoin (DOGE) weakened by 0.3 per cent to $0.0963, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

Economy

Crude Oil Soars as US Cautions Vessels Near Iran

Published

2 hours ago

10/02/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil gained more than 1 per cent on Monday after the United States issued an advisory to US-flagged vessels to stay as far as possible from Iranian territory while passing through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

The price of Brent crude was up 99 cents or 1.5 per cent during the session to $69.04 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 81 cents or 1.3 per cent to settle at $64.36 per barrel.

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) Maritime Administration yesterday noted that vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman have historically faced the risk of being boarded by Iranian forces, including as recently as February 3.
The agency advised U.S.-flagged ships to stay close to Oman while eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz.

The move renewed concerns that tensions between the US and Iran could lead to oil supply disruptions. About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to attack, citing possible executions of protesters, and saying “help is on its way.” He ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and a flotilla of accompanying ships to the region.

In June, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities at the end of a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign.

Iran’s foreign minister said on Saturday the country will strike US bases in the Middle East if attacked by American forces, which have built up their naval presence in the region.

Investors were also monitoring efforts by Western governments to curb Russia’s income from oil exports that support its war in Ukraine.

The European Commission has proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, in fresh efforts to reduce revenues that help Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Refiners in India, once the biggest buyer of Russian crude, are avoiding purchases for delivery in April. Market analysts noted that if India fully stopped purchasing this crude, it would boost oil prices.

Meanwhile, Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has returned 60 per cent of its peak production and was pumping at a rate of 550,000 barrels per day as of Sunday, following a forced shutdown for half of January due to a fire.

Tengiz, which is operated by a consortium led by US supermajor Chevron, is expected to reach peak levels of oil output of about 950,000 barrels per day by February 23.