Economy
Base Effects Dictate Inflation Trajectory
By ARM Securities
Nigeria’s headline inflation decelerated for the second consecutive month (-50bps) to 17.3% in March – though lagging the scale of moderation in prior month’s reading (-92bps).
Instructively, the reading was significantly behind Bloomberg consensus estimate of 16.7% as changes in food inflation (-10bps to 18.4% YoY) failed to keep pace with expected impact of naira gains at the parallel market in the review month.
That said, high base effect from 2016 electricity and PMS price hikes saw core inflation decelerate a further 60bps to 15.4% to dictate overall YoY headline trajectory. On a MoM basis, headline inflation increased by 1.72% (vs. 1.49% in prior month’s reading) largely reflecting unyielding food pressures (MoM: 2.21%).
Focusing on core inflationary movements, breakdowns indicate a 1.32% MoM increase in the core basket buoyed by increases in prices of miscellaneous services related to dwelling, solid fuels, clothing materials, spirits, lubricants, and personal transport.
Also, despite moderation in prices of some known energy components (PMS (-0.3% MoM), Kerosene (-14.2% MoM) and Diesel (-5.4% MoM)), pressures from other sources (e.g. solid energy) drove energy inflation higher to 1.4% MoM.
The foregoing combined with the pressures on miscellaneous services front drove core inflation higher in the review month.
Overall, despite core inflationary pressures suggested by the MoM readings, the impact of high base remained evident on YoY numbers as increases in PMS (+10% YoY), kerosene (+54% YoY), and diesel (+60% YoY) in March failed to stall YoY core deceleration.
In line with the trend recorded over the prior months, MoM food inflation increased sharply by 2.2% (vs. February reading of 1.99%) despite naira gains at the parallel market in March.
According to FEWSNET, pressures on Nigeria’s farm produce prices persisted despite recent gains in foreign reserve (+0.4% to $30.4 billion) and direct government intervention due to structural challenges, restriction on use of forex reserve for food imports as well as higher transactions and transportation cost (March transport inflation: +1.2% MoM, +15% YoY) in the review period.
Specifically, while government’s interventions—including Anchor Borrowers programme—slightly increased areas cultivated, initiatives to curb transport challenges (i.e. grain by rail) were yet to kick-in to stem the major transport setback in the review month.
Importantly, MoM transportation inflation have steadily increased in the last three months, with the March reading (1.2% MoM) printing at the highest level since July 2016, following price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.
For context, we note that the cost of transportation between assembly markets in North Central and other Northwest states of Nigeria, particularly to Dawanau market in Kano, increased by about 70% compared to last year.
Going forward, we expect impact of high base effect to continue to dictate core inflation and overall headline trajectory despite concerns on the food inflation front. Precisely, high base effect from the 45% and 68% increases in electricity and PMS prices in 2016 should leave YoY core reading subdued with recent gains in PMS, kerosene, and diesel prices leaving sizable scope for sustained decelerations.
However, we are less sanguine on the food side of things over the near term owing to recent pressures from higher transactions and transportation costs.
That said, the more recent retrace in diesel prices suggests that pressures from the transport front would be less impacting in coming reading. In addition to this, the incentive of higher prices and FG’s continued push on the Anchor Borrowers Program front are notable signposts of gradual near and medium term gains relating to domestic food availability respectively.
On the former, we expect farmers to sustain their ramp up of output in April offseason harvest as higher prices continue to provide the needed incentive.
Thus, with lagged impact of naira gains at the parallel market also raising scope for temperance in demand pressures from neighbouring West Africa, pressures on food inflation should be relatively contained in the coming reading compared to that of the prior month.
On balance, we expect moderation in core inflation to offset pressures from food inflation.
Against this backdrop, we now look for headline reading of 16.7% YoY for April with 2017 mean now printing at 15.4% YoY (2016: 15.6% YoY).
In terms of market impact, elevated MoM inflation reading provide another justification for CBN to leave its hawkish monetary policy intact over the near term.
That said, given the impact of contractionary monetary policy on FG’s borrowing cost with April 2017 subscription (N111 billion) significantly below amount on offer (N135 billion), we think pressures from the fiscal authorities could compel some form of monetary easing over H2 17.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
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By Aduragbemi Omiyale
African leaders have been advised to focus on economic integration through industrialisation, as this would make the continent a formidable force in the global market.
This charge was given by the Minister of State in the Tanzanian President’s Office responsible for Planning and Investment, Prof. Kitila A. Mkumbo, during a visit to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals in Lagos.
“Africa now needs economic liberation, and that can only come through industrialisation,” he said, describing Mr Aliko Dangote as Africa’s leading industrialist whose investments are increasingly extending beyond Nigeria to support development across the continent.
He added that Tanzania looks forward to working with Dangote Group as part of a broader vision of accelerating Pan-African industrialisation and strengthening regional manufacturing capacity.
The Minister also highlighted the importance of local refining capacity in improving Africa’s energy security, particularly in light of recent disruptions in global oil markets.
Referring to the impact of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz on global fuel prices, he said increased refining capacity from facilities such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery would help cushion African economies against external shocks.
According to him, affordable and reliable energy remains one of the most important drivers of economic development, noting that expanded refining capacity across the continent would contribute significantly to lowering energy costs and improving the quality of life for millions of Africans.
The Tanzanian delegation was in Nigeria to follow up on discussions held earlier this year between President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Mr Dangote regarding the expansion of Dangote Group’s investment footprint in Tanzania.
The East African nation reaffirmed its commitment to deepening economic cooperation with Dangote Group, expressing strong interest in attracting new investments in fertiliser production, energy and industrial infrastructure to support the country’s long-term development agenda.
“We have come here to make a follow-up on what they deliberated with our President in terms of further Dangote investments in Tanzania,” Mr Mkumbo said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading brewers and beverage companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, Champion Breweries Plc, has expressed its commitment to strengthening its market position.
The beer maker gave this assurance while reacting to its financial performance for the first half of 2026, which was strong, driven by solid commercial performance, improved operational efficiencies, and the successful expansion of its business portfolio following the acquisition of EnjoyBev B.V.
In the period under review, the organisation boosted its growth platform through strategic investment, delivered resilient operating performance, and successfully transitioned to a new group structure.
Its revenue reached N35.73 billion, while second-quarter revenue amounted to N21.37 billion. Operating profit stood at N6.17 billion, and profit after tax attributable to the group was N2.65 billion, with second-quarter profit after tax of N1.76 billion.
The firm also successfully completed the acquisition of an 80 per cent equity interest in EnjoyBev B.V., strengthened its capital base through a successful capital raising programme that increased shareholders’ equity to N69.08 billion, and maintained full compliance with NGX free float requirements, with free float increasing to 25.72 per cent as of June 30, 2026.
“The first half of 2026 marks a defining chapter in Champion Breweries’ journey. We have not only delivered a strong operating performance but also successfully transformed our business into a broader beverage group with an expanded platform for sustainable growth.
“While higher finance costs associated with our strategic investment programme impacted profitability during the period, our underlying business remains strong.
“The combination of disciplined commercial execution, continued investment in our brands and route-to-market capabilities and improving operational efficiency positions us well for future growth.
“We remain focused on creating long-term value for shareholders, strengthening our market position, and capturing the opportunities presented by our expanded business platform,” the acting chief executive of Champion Breweries, Mr Rasheed Adebiyi, said.
For businesses operating across borders, payments are no longer simply the final step in a transaction. The way money moves can influence where a company sells, how quickly it can enter a new market, and how easily customers can complete a purchase. As digital payment methods become more diverse, businesses are adjusting not only their checkout options but also the way payment processes fit into wider operations.
This shift is particularly visible in international commerce. A company can now serve customers in multiple markets without relying on a single payment method or a traditional physical presence in each location. Digital payments have become part of the infrastructure that supports increasingly distributed business models.
A More Connected Payment Environment
Global commerce has created a more complicated payment environment. Customers in different countries may have very different expectations about how a purchase should be paid for. Some markets rely heavily on cards, while others have seen rapid adoption of digital wallets, bank-based payment methods, or other local alternatives.
For businesses, this variety creates both opportunities and practical challenges. Offering payment options that customers recognize can reduce friction during a transaction, while supporting several markets may require businesses to work with different payment technologies and providers.
Digital payments have therefore become closely connected to market expansion. A company entering a new country does not only need to consider demand for its products or services. It also needs to understand how customers in that market prefer to pay and whether its existing payment setup can accommodate those expectations.
More Choices for Businesses and Customers
The growth of digital payments has expanded the range of choices available on both sides of a transaction.
Consumers can increasingly choose between cards, digital wallets, bank transfers, mobile payment methods and other forms of electronic payment. Businesses, meanwhile, can select from different technologies and payment providers depending on their markets and operational requirements.
This development has changed the role of payments in the customer experience. Payment is no longer necessarily treated as an isolated technical process that begins only after a purchasing decision has been made. The available options can influence whether a customer completes a transaction in the first place.
For international businesses, flexibility can be particularly important. A payment method that is familiar and convenient in one market may be less relevant in another. Supporting a broader selection can allow businesses to adapt their payment experience without changing the underlying product or service.
The Rise of Alternative Payment Models
Traditional card and bank-based payments remain important, but the digital payments landscape has expanded beyond these established methods. Digital wallets, account-to-account payments, mobile solutions and cryptocurrency have all contributed to a broader definition of what a digital transaction can look like.
Cryptocurrency remains a smaller part of the overall payments landscape, but it has created another category of payment technology for businesses to consider. Specialized solutions such as BitHide can provide businesses with tools for handling crypto payments as part of their broader payment operations.
The significance of this development is not necessarily that every business will adopt cryptocurrency. Rather, it demonstrates how the payment landscape continues to diversify. Businesses operating internationally can increasingly choose from different models instead of relying on a single approach across every market.
Payments Are Becoming Part of Business Operations
As payment systems become more digital, their role increasingly extends beyond accepting money from customers. Payment processes can interact with accounting, order management, customer records and other parts of a company’s digital operations.
This is particularly relevant for businesses with large transaction volumes or customers in multiple countries. Manual payment processes can become difficult to manage as the number of transactions, currencies and payment methods increases. Digital systems can help businesses organize these processes within a wider operational framework.
The result is a gradual shift in how companies think about payments. Instead of treating payment processing as a separate function, businesses are increasingly considering it alongside other elements of their digital infrastructure.
This does not mean that every company needs a complex payment setup. The appropriate approach depends on the business model, target markets, transaction volumes and types of customers involved. For some companies, a small number of established payment methods may be sufficient. Others may need a more flexible arrangement because of the markets they serve.
Adapting to Different Markets
One of the more important changes brought by digital payments is the ability to adapt payment experiences to different markets.
International businesses often face differences in consumer behavior, financial infrastructure and preferred payment methods. A payment strategy that works well domestically may therefore require adjustments when a company expands internationally.
Digital payment technology can make these adjustments more practical, but it does not remove the need for local market knowledge. Businesses still need to understand customer preferences, applicable requirements and the practical costs associated with different payment methods.
This makes payment strategy part of international expansion rather than an issue that can be addressed only after a new market has been entered.
What Comes Next for Global Businesses
The digital payments market is likely to continue becoming more diverse as businesses and customers adopt new ways of moving money. The important change may not be the replacement of one payment method by another, but the growing ability to combine different methods according to the needs of a particular business or market.
For global companies, this creates an emphasis on adaptability. Payment systems need to support the way a business operates rather than becoming a limitation on where and how it can sell.
Digital payments are consequently becoming more than a convenient alternative to cash or traditional payment processes. They are increasingly connected to international commerce, customer experience and day-to-day business operations. As payment options continue to develop, companies that can adapt their payment strategies to different markets will be better positioned to operate in an increasingly digital global economy.
