Economy
Nigeria May See 4.4% GDP Growth, 17.1% Inflation in H2 2025—FSDH
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria may achieve an economic growth of 4.4 per cent and a moderate inflation of 17.1 per cent if crude oil production improves, analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank have projected.
In a report released last week, the firm in its Nigeria Macroeconomic Report for the First Half of 2025, offered critical insights into the global and domestic economic environment.
The report titled Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World dissected the complex interplay of global disruptions and Nigeria’s economic performance, while providing a forward-looking projection for the second half of 2025.
It said despite global trade tensions, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and fragile capital flows, Nigeria showed signs of resilience, underpinned by expanding non-oil exports, moderating inflation, and improving investor sentiment.
“Nigeria has demonstrated encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in the face of global headwinds. Our PMI data suggests an expanding economy, inflation is decelerating, and exchange rate reforms are strengthening market confidence. However, sustaining this progress requires deep structural reforms, especially in energy, trade, and fiscal management,” the chief executive of FSDH Merchant Bank, Mrs Bukola Smith, was quoted as saying in the note.
For the first half of the year, the report noted that Israel-Iran conflict and a renewed tariff war under US President Donald Trump have triggered global uncertainty, with the IMF cutting global growth projections, adding that oil price volatility and trade disruptions are shaping Nigeria’s external outlook.
It also noted that Nigeria’s inflation has moderated following a revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, inflation slowed from 24.5 per cent in January to 23 per cent in May 2025.
The firm also affirmed that exchange rate reforms were working.
“The Naira showed relative stability, trading within a narrower band. FX reforms and CBN’s transparency have restored investor confidence,” it said, adding that, “Though official GDP data is pending, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed above the 50-point threshold throughout H1, reflecting economic expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.”
It revealed that despite a decline in oil’s share of exports to 62.9 per cent (from 81 per cent in Q1 2024), crude oil production remains below budget benchmarks. This shortfall may affect fiscal performance unless addressed.
Other pointers include NGX All Share Index (NGX-ASI) which returned 16.6 per cent YTD, outperforming many global peers, while foreign portfolio investments surged to $5.03 billion in Q1 as well as the passage of four major tax laws in June, aiming to harmonize tax administration, increase compliance, and improve equity.
“These are expected to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to 18 per cent in three years,” it said.
The report then projects that if oil production improves and inflation continues its downward trend in the current half of this year, Nigeria may achieve GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, inflation at 17.1 per cent, and external reserves of $44.3 billion, provided oil output and reforms align in a best-case scenario.
However, Nigeria must leverage current momentum to deepen economic diversification, accelerate reforms in the power and petroleum sectors, and maintain coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
“Investor sentiment has begun to turn positive. Nigeria’s bond and T-bill markets are attracting renewed interest, and equity markets are gaining momentum.
“At FSDH, we understand that in times like this, clarity and partnership matter more than ever. While we can’t control global events or predict every market move, we remain committed to helping you navigate the complexity with perspective, precision, and purpose,” the Executive Director for Global Markets and Institutional Banking at FSDH, Mr Hakeem Muhammed, said.
The report also noted cautious optimism in the bond and NT-Bills market, as yields softened in response to improved macro indicators, while oil sector stocks on the NGX continued to underperform due to global crude price pressures.
“With the MPR at 27.5 per cent, prime lending rates currently exceed 30 per cent, but projected downward trends in H2 2025 offer a more favourable outlook for debt-funded expansion and capital investments,” added Mrs Stella-Marie Omogbai, Executive Director, Corporate Banking and Branches, FSDH Merchant Bank, “Interest rates are expected to ease due to projections on MPC rates dropping to at least 27 per cent, supported by fresh capital inflows in the banking industry and reduced inflation concerns.”
“FSDH, in partnership with DFIs, will continue to provide funding at competitive rates to help businesses grow,” she further stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Food Concepts Plc neutralized the gains recorded by three securities, returning the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange into the negative territory with a 0.27 per cent loss on Thursday, December 4.
Yesterday, the share price of the parent company of Chicken Republic and PieXpress declined by 34 Kobo to sell at N3.15 per unit compared with the previous day’s N3.49 per unit.
This shrank the market capitalisation of the OTC bourse by N5.72 billion to N2.136 billion from N2.142 trillion and weakened the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 9.57 points to 3,571.53 points from 3,581.10 points.
Business Post reports that Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 50 Kobo to N38.50 per share from N38.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained 29 Kobo to sell at N55.79 per unit versus N55.50 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc added 5 Kobo to close at N4.60 per share compared with Wednesday’s closing price of N4.55 per share.
Trading data indicated that the volume of securities recorded at the session surged by 6,885.3 per cent to 4.3 million units from the 61,570 units posted a day earlier, the value of securities increased by 10,301.7 per cent to N947.2 million from N3.3 million, and the number of deals went up by 146.7 per cent to 37 deals from the 15 deals achieved in the previous trading session.
At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 5.8 billion units for N16.4 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units worth N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units valued at N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trend witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in recent sessions continued on Thursday as it further improved by 0.10 per cent.
This was despite investor sentiment turning bearish after the local equity market ended with 23 price gainers and 28 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N88.00, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.54, Ecobank rose by 8.53 per cent to N36.90, and Coronation Insurance grew by 8.47 per cent to N2.56.
On the flip side, Ellah Lakes depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N13.14, Eunisell Nigeria also shed 10.00 per cent to finish at N72.90, Transcorp Hotels slipped by 9.95 per cent to N157.50, Omatek shrank by 9.23 per cent to N1.18, and Guinea Insurance dipped by 8.46 per cent to N1.19.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 152.28 points to 145,476.15 points from 145,323.87 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N97 billion to finish at N92.726 trillion compared with the previous day’s N92.629 trillion.
Customs Street was bubbling with activities on Thursday, though the trading volume and value slightly went down, according to data.
A total of 1.9 billion stocks worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 23,369 deals during the session versus the N2.3 billion valued at N21.0 billion traded in 21,513 deals a day earlier.
This showed that the number of deals increased by 8.63 per cent, the volume of transactions depleted by 17.39 per cent, and the value of trades decreased by 8.57 per cent.
For another trading day, eTranzact led the activity chart with 1.6 billion units sold for N6.4 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 31.0 million units worth N589.3 million, GTCO exchanged 28.3 million units valued at N2.5 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N1.6 billion, and Ecobank traded 21.9 million units worth N744.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira marginally depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, December 4 amid renewed forex pressure associated with December.
At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian currency lost 0.01 per cent or 18 Kobo against the Dollar to close at N1,447.83/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.65/$1.
It was not a different scenario with the local currency in the same market segment against the Pound Sterling as it further shed N15.43 to sell for N1,930.97/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,925.08/£1 and declined against the Euro by 20 Kobo to finish at N1,688.74/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,688.54/€1.
Similarly, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback in the black market to quote at N1,465/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,460/$1 but closed flat against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter at N1,453/$1.
Fluctuations in trading range is expected to continue during the festive season as traders expect the Nigerian currency to be stable, supported by intervention s by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)in the face of steady dollar demand.
Support is also expected in coming weeks as seasonal activities, particularly the stylised “Detty December” festivities, will see inflows that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month, according to a new report.
“As the festive Detty December season intensifies, inbound travel, tourism spending, and diaspora inflows are expected to provide moderate support for FX liquidity,” analysts at the research unit of FMDA said in its latest monthly report for November.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
Meanwhile, the crypto market was down as the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, likely rose in September—moving in the wrong direction. However, volatility indices show no signs of major turbulence.
If the actual figure matches estimates, it would mark 55 straight months of inflation above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. The sticky inflation would strengthen the hawkish policymakers, who are in favour of slower rate cuts.
Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.5 per cent to $2.08, Solana (SOL) went down by 3.8 per cent to $138.11, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.1 per cent to $83.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 2.5 per cent to $0.1463, Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.1 per cent to $0.4368, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.9 per cent to $91,975.45, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.9 per cent to $899.41, and Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,156.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking7 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy2 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn