Economy
Nigeria May See 4.4% GDP Growth, 17.1% Inflation in H2 2025—FSDH
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria may achieve an economic growth of 4.4 per cent and a moderate inflation of 17.1 per cent if crude oil production improves, analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank have projected.
In a report released last week, the firm in its Nigeria Macroeconomic Report for the First Half of 2025, offered critical insights into the global and domestic economic environment.
The report titled Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World dissected the complex interplay of global disruptions and Nigeria’s economic performance, while providing a forward-looking projection for the second half of 2025.
It said despite global trade tensions, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and fragile capital flows, Nigeria showed signs of resilience, underpinned by expanding non-oil exports, moderating inflation, and improving investor sentiment.
“Nigeria has demonstrated encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in the face of global headwinds. Our PMI data suggests an expanding economy, inflation is decelerating, and exchange rate reforms are strengthening market confidence. However, sustaining this progress requires deep structural reforms, especially in energy, trade, and fiscal management,” the chief executive of FSDH Merchant Bank, Mrs Bukola Smith, was quoted as saying in the note.
For the first half of the year, the report noted that Israel-Iran conflict and a renewed tariff war under US President Donald Trump have triggered global uncertainty, with the IMF cutting global growth projections, adding that oil price volatility and trade disruptions are shaping Nigeria’s external outlook.
It also noted that Nigeria’s inflation has moderated following a revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, inflation slowed from 24.5 per cent in January to 23 per cent in May 2025.
The firm also affirmed that exchange rate reforms were working.
“The Naira showed relative stability, trading within a narrower band. FX reforms and CBN’s transparency have restored investor confidence,” it said, adding that, “Though official GDP data is pending, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed above the 50-point threshold throughout H1, reflecting economic expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.”
It revealed that despite a decline in oil’s share of exports to 62.9 per cent (from 81 per cent in Q1 2024), crude oil production remains below budget benchmarks. This shortfall may affect fiscal performance unless addressed.
Other pointers include NGX All Share Index (NGX-ASI) which returned 16.6 per cent YTD, outperforming many global peers, while foreign portfolio investments surged to $5.03 billion in Q1 as well as the passage of four major tax laws in June, aiming to harmonize tax administration, increase compliance, and improve equity.
“These are expected to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to 18 per cent in three years,” it said.
The report then projects that if oil production improves and inflation continues its downward trend in the current half of this year, Nigeria may achieve GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, inflation at 17.1 per cent, and external reserves of $44.3 billion, provided oil output and reforms align in a best-case scenario.
However, Nigeria must leverage current momentum to deepen economic diversification, accelerate reforms in the power and petroleum sectors, and maintain coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
“Investor sentiment has begun to turn positive. Nigeria’s bond and T-bill markets are attracting renewed interest, and equity markets are gaining momentum.
“At FSDH, we understand that in times like this, clarity and partnership matter more than ever. While we can’t control global events or predict every market move, we remain committed to helping you navigate the complexity with perspective, precision, and purpose,” the Executive Director for Global Markets and Institutional Banking at FSDH, Mr Hakeem Muhammed, said.
The report also noted cautious optimism in the bond and NT-Bills market, as yields softened in response to improved macro indicators, while oil sector stocks on the NGX continued to underperform due to global crude price pressures.
“With the MPR at 27.5 per cent, prime lending rates currently exceed 30 per cent, but projected downward trends in H2 2025 offer a more favourable outlook for debt-funded expansion and capital investments,” added Mrs Stella-Marie Omogbai, Executive Director, Corporate Banking and Branches, FSDH Merchant Bank, “Interest rates are expected to ease due to projections on MPC rates dropping to at least 27 per cent, supported by fresh capital inflows in the banking industry and reduced inflation concerns.”
“FSDH, in partnership with DFIs, will continue to provide funding at competitive rates to help businesses grow,” she further stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further appreciated by 0.23 per cent on Thursday, April 23, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) adding 8.99 points to close at 3,969.96 points against the previous day’s 3,968 points.
The rise in the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc by N2.86 to N69.34 per unit from N66.48 per unit raised the market capitalisation of the NASD bourse by N5.38 billion to N2.380 trillion from N2.375 trillion.
Yesterday, there were two price losers, led by Food Concepts Plc, which lost 29 Kobo to sell at N2.65 per share versus N2.94 per share, while UBN Property Plc dipped by 22 Kobo to N2.03 per unit from N2.25 per unit.
During the session, the volume of securities traded declined by 97.9 per cent to 451,522 units from 21.5 million units on Wednesday, the value of securities depreciated by 52.32 per cent to N23.6 million from N49.5 million, and the number of deals depreciated by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from 28 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.5 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fresh foreign exchange (forex) demand pressure saw the Naira depreciate against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 22, by N5.46 or 0.4 per cent to trade at N1,353.91/$1 compared with the preceding day’s value of N1,348.45/$1.
It was the same outcome for the local currency in the official market after it depreciated against the Pound Sterling by N4.13 to close at N1,825.88/£1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,821.75/£1, and against the Euro, it dropped 72 Kobo to finish at N1,582.72/€1 versus N1,582.00/€1.
But the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX desk by N2 during the session to quote at N1,361/$1 compared with Wednesday’s closing price of N1,361/$1, and at the parallel market, it closed flat at N1,375/$1.
FX Pressure came as data showed that NFEM interbank turnover was N28.117 million, lower than the N66.084 million recorded the previous day.
Concerns over liquidity pressures, policy transparency, and confidence in Nigeria’s FX market continue to grip the market while the country’s foreign reserve declines further, even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently said that the recent decline in Nigeria’s external reserves should not be a cause for concern.
Global developments also played a significant role, as rising geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the US Dollar, further weakening emerging market currencies, including the Naira.
As for the cryptocurrency market, there was a mixed outcome as traders reacted to rising geopolitical tensions from the Iran war and fresh inflation data from Japan.
Japanese inflation ticked higher in March, stoking expectations that the Bank of Japan may soon signal rate hikes, which could strengthen the yen and unsettle global risk assets.
The Iran conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising energy costs and inflation risks worldwide and potentially complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Ethereum (ETH) declined by 1.8 per cent to $2,316.53, Bitcoin (BTC) lost 0.6 per cent to sell at $77,935.53, Solana (SOL) fell by 0.5 per cent to $85.67, and Binance Coin (BNB) dropped 0.4 per cent to sell for $634.85.
However, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 1.4 per cent to $0.0976, Ripple (XRP) grew by 0.7 per cent to $1.43, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 0.6 per cent to $0.2493, and TRON (TRX) improved by 0.2 per cent to $0.3279, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The resilience shown by Nigerian Breweries Plc in the 2025 fiscal year, despite a volatile macroeconomic environment, which consumed several businesses, has not got without notice.
Shareholders of the brewery giant applauded the board and management for the strong recovery and improved profitability recorded in the year.
At the company’s 80th Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Lagos, they attributed these achievements to disciplined cost management and a significant reduction in finance expenses.
“We are proud of how the company has withstood the ups and downs of a challenging environment. The return to profitability and the reversal of the negative cash position recorded in the previous two financial years are commendable,” a member of the Noble Shareholders Association, Mr Owolabi Opeyemi, said at the gathering.
Also, the immediate past Secretary of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN), Mr Eke Emmanuel, noted that the company’s resilience reflects strong leadership and a sound strategic direction.
“It is good news that we have been here for 80 years. There is no reason why we will not be here for the next 80 years with what we have achieved. To return to this level of profitability and cash position shows the Board has done an enormous amount of work,” he said.
Addressing investors at the AGM, the board chairman, Mrs Juliet Anammah, expressed confidence that the company is firmly on a recovery path following the net losses recorded in the past two years due to macroeconomic pressures and fiscal reforms.
She thanked shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed that the company will build on its 2025 performance as it accelerates growth ambitions.
“We have a solid foundation built over eight decades, anchored on a strong portfolio of brands, an extensive nationwide sales and supply chain network, ongoing digital transformation, and most importantly, our people. These strengths remain critical to sustaining our leadership position,” the former chief executive of Jumia Nigeria said.
Ms Anammah also addressed the company’s dividend position, noting that the decision not to declare a dividend reflects the need to rebuild retained earnings impacted by prior macroeconomic shocks, particularly foreign exchange-related losses.
“We recognise the importance of dividend payments to our shareholders and sincerely appreciate your continued understanding. While we are not declaring a dividend at this time due to negative retained earnings, we are working diligently to restore the company’s financial position and return to dividend payments as soon as it is sustainable to do so,” she added.
She further noted that the board remains vigilant to external risks, including the Middle East crisis and broader macroeconomic challenges, which may impact the pace of improvement in the 2026 financial year.
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