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Currency Traders Predict Naira Fall to N1,560 Per Dollar Next Weeka

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Currency traders expect the value of the Naira to weaken against the US Dollar to as much as N1,560 per Dollar at the official foreign exchange market next week.

According to Reuters, the domestic currency is also expected to remain range-bound, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and exchange bureaus selling Dollars to meet demand from importers and travellers.

Business Post reports that the Naira this month has traded from the N1,532/$1 to N1,535/$1 range, underpinned by robust FX liquidity and an efficient FX market.

However, noticeable pressure has seen the domestic currency fall consecutively this week. It closed at N1,536.18 per Dollar on Wednesday, August 20.

“With inflation easing, speculative trading has been limited, causing the Naira to trade in a tight range around 1,530,” one trader told Reuters, “The Naira is likely to stay in a narrow band between 1,520 and 1,560 next week.”

This is in line with forecasts from many Nigeria-based analysts, with Cordros Capital Limited in a recent note saying, “We expect sustained inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) due to existing carry trade opportunities and stronger market confidence.”

Also, improving non-oil exports, as well as limited incentives for Naira hoarding and speculation, are expected to reinforce steady inflows from domestic sources.

Updated data showed that the gross balance in the nation’s external reserves climbed to $40.962 billion this week.

Inflation also eased for the fourth consecutive month as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation eased by 34 basis points to 21.88 per cent year-on-year in July from 22.22 per cent year on year. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices increased to 1.99 per cent versus 1.68 per cent on record in June. Food inflation increased by 77 basis points to 22.74 per cent in July from 21.97 per cent.

This strengthens the position of stakeholders seeking a cut in the country’s interest rate, which has been held steady for the last two cycles at 27.50 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigerian Private Sector’s Stanbic IBTC PMI for July Eases to 52.5 Points

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Nigerian private sector in July 2026 contracted to 52.5 points from 53.4 points in June 2026, a statement made available to Business Post has shown.

This occurred despite the business environment sustaining its growth last month, with an increase in new orders experienced, as inflationary pressures softened, and output and employment modestly rising.

The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said the PMI indicated that the private sector recorded its slowest since March 2026, as businesses also increased their input purchasing activity to keep up with current demand requirements and prepare for future workloads.

“Nigerian businesses reported improved customer demand in July while better pricing and new product launches also helped them to capture new orders arising from the increase in demand. These factors helped to keep the private sector activity in an expansionary territory, although this moderated when compared to June,” he was quoted as saying.

It was stated that while input costs increased at their slowest pace in five months, panellists reported higher costs for fuel and raw materials. Selling prices also softened in line with the picture for input costs in July.

Headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 per cent y/y in June from 15.93 per cent y/y in May, snapping three consecutive months of price increases.

Although July inflation is likely to be higher m/m, it is expected to print lower, likely at 15.72 per cent y/y, primarily driven by favourable base effects from the corresponding period of last year, because there are no expectations of the magnitude of m/m inflation witnessed in July 2025 (1.99 per cent) to materialise this year.

“We retain our 2026 growth forecasts at 4.1 per cent as we see the oil sector growing by 3.45 per cent y/y in 2026, from 8.50 per cent y/y in 2025, while the non-oil sector is likely to grow by 4.11 per cent y/y, from 3.71 per cent y/y in 2025.

“The risks to our outlook include country-wide insecurity which may constrain food production, exchange rate pressures resurfacing, extreme-weather related conditions and higher fertiliser prices impacting crop yield, and a volatile global environment which may affect sentiment and constrain capital flows,” Mr Oni noted.

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Economy

Sahara Upstream Ramps Up OML 18 Exports with New Tanker

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Sahara Upstream

By Adedapo Adesanya

Sahara Upstream, a Nigeria-focused crude producer, has deployed a new 380,000-barrel tanker to boost exports from the OML 18 block as part of a wider push by domestic operators to invest in infrastructure and lift output and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.

The MT D ​Adesanya, which can hold more than 62,000 ​cubic metres of crude, will operate alongside ⁠the MT D Bayero, receiving crude from ​shuttle vessels at Bonny Anchorage, one of Nigeria’s main ​crude export hubs, before transferring it to the FSO Cawthorne storage facility.

Sahara said the tanker would help cut turnaround ​times, currently about 30 to 48 hours, ​and support a planned 50 per cent increase in exports from the ‌block’s current level of about 950,000 barrels per month.

The block currently produces about 36,000 barrels per day, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), ​with Sahara targeting ​output of ⁠60,000 barrels per day.

OML 18 is one of the Niger Delta’s oldest producing assets. ​It began production in 1970 and ​contains ⁠an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves.

Shell, Total and Eni sold their combined ⁠interests ​to Eroton in 2015 as ​part of a broader shift toward domestic ownership in Nigeria’s ​upstream sector.

This development comes as Sahara Upstream is deepening its exploration and production footprint through Asharami Energy Limited (AEL), its upstream E&P business, which says it is targeting 350,000 barrels of oil per day by 2030 through its subsidiary, Enageed Resources Limited (ERL).

The growth target comes as AEL also marks a major safety milestone, achieving 6 million Lost Time Injury (LTI)-free man-hours in its OML-148 operations — reinforcing the company’s commitment to operational excellence and safety leadership.

According to Asharami Energy, the milestone reflects its ability to execute complex operations safely, in line with Sahara’s Beyond XXX vision, which builds on the group’s 30-year legacy of responsible enterprise while marking its next chapter of impact, innovation, and sustainable growth.

The developments position Sahara Upstream and its subsidiaries among the domestic operators driving increased investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure, as the group works to scale up production and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.

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Economy

Aradel Grows H1 2026 Earnings by 577%, Eyes Better Operational Efficiency in H2

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Aradel

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the leading energy firms in Nigeria, Aradel Holdings Plc, has expressed its desire to optimise its enlarged portfolio and improve operational efficiency in the second half of 2026.

The company is planning to build on the success it recorded in the first half of the year, where it grew its revenue by 577 per cent to N2.5 trillion from N368.1 billion in H1 2025.

The significant rise in earnings was driven by higher production volumes together with stronger realised crude oil and gas prices, with the average at $90.4/bbl and $2.08/mmscf, respectively.

In the period under review, the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) increased by 688 per cent to N1.4 trillion from N176.4 billion in the corresponding period of last year, while the operating profit surged by 789 per cent to N1.1 trillion from N118.6 billion due to higher revenue and crude handling income at N149.8 billion, partly offset by underlift cost and general and administrative costs.

The net cash generated from operations was N975.6 billion between January and June 2026 versus N140.8 billion in the same period of 2025, reflecting the cash generation of the enlarged organisation.

The net debt contracted by 70 per cent on a year-to-date basis to N46.5 billion from N475.1 billion as of December 31, 2025.

Aradel, in the period under consideration, improved its post-tax profit by 30 per cent to N191.0 billion from N146.4 billion, a development that impressed its chief executive, Mr Adegbite Falade, who said, “A firmer price environment supported performance, generating net cash from operating activities of N975.6 billion and a closing cash balance of N1.7 trillion.”

“Our enlarged portfolio provides more opportunities to generate stronger cash flow and returns for shareholders and unlocking that potential is our main focus.

“We reaffirm our full year production guidance of 110 – 140 kboepd and remain committed to operating responsibly in a changing energy landscape and to delivering lasting value for our stakeholders,” he stated.

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