By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s external reserves would climb to $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45 billion in 2025.

The projection was contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria in 2026 titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, published by the apex bank on Tuesday.

“The external reserves are projected at $51.04 billion in 2026 compared with $45.01 billion in 2025. The external reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.

“Additionally, Dangote refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd in 2025 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term would further support the growth in external reserves,” the report read.

In the FX market, the apex bank noted that reforms are expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability.

In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.

It also projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination.

According to the report, the outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic”, with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains stable.

The lender also projected improved activity in the non-oil sector, although it noted that structural constraints persist.

The CBN said that following a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment. The decision, it said, was driven by “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions”.

It added that external buffers strengthened during the period due to increased remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), steady oil receipts, and rising non-oil exports, which collectively supported naira stability.

The CBN also reported “substantial progress” in its transition towards a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, supported by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks, and enhanced policy communication.

According to the outlook, strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows, and strengthened the resilience of the financial system.

It noted that significant progress was also recorded in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise, with many banks already meeting the new capital thresholds.

“As a result of the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of the reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026,” the report stated, adding that inflation is expected to continue moderating, output growth to strengthen, and foreign exchange stability to be sustained, leading to further reserve accumulation.

The document stressed the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms, and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.

The apex bank also stressed the importance of maintaining orthodox monetary policy and continued reforms in the foreign exchange market to ensure price and exchange rate stability.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Bellwether stocks, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, triggered a 0.24 per cent loss in the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Tuesday, December 30.

The losses recorded by the duo pulled down the market capitalisation of the platform by N5.11 billion to N2.120 trillion from N2.125 trillion and weakened the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 8.54 points to 3,543.46 points from the 3,552.00 points it ended a day earlier.

During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N2.12 to sell at N47.00 per unit versus Monday’s price of N49.12 per unit and CSCS Plc declined by 80 Kobo to close at N35.00 per share against the previous trading value of N35.80 per share.

However, Newrest Asl Plc gained N4.59 to sell at N50.53 per unit compared with the previous day’s value of N45.94 per unit, and Golden Capital Plc appreciated by N1.02 to trade at N11.24 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N10.22 per share.

The trading barometers pointed south during the session as the volume of securities traded by investors depleted by 95.1 per cent to 1.4 million units from the previous day’s 29.6 million units, the value of securities depreciated by 86.7 per cent to N204.6 million from N1.5 billion, and the number of deals slumped by 15.2 per cent to 28 deals from 33 deals.

At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units sold for N16.4 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with a turnover of 187.6 million units valued at N10.9 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

In terms of volume, also on a year-to-date basis, InfraCredit Plc led the chart with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion. followed by Industrial And General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units transacted for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units valued at N524.9 million.

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira weakened against the United States Dollar on Tuesday, December 30 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N3.17 or 0.22 per cent to N1,445.68/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,442.51/$1.

Equally, the Nigerian Naira depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N6.01 to close at N1,951.67/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,945.66/£1 and lost N2.87 on the Euro to trade at N1,700.27/€1 compared with Monday’s closing price of N1,697.40/€1.

But, at the GTBank forex counter, the local currency appreciated against the greenback during the session by N5 to sell for N1,452/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,457/$1 and closed flat in the black market at N1,480/$1.

The loss posted by the domestic currency in the spot market was amid FX sales to authorised dealers by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to strengthen currency market.

It also happened amid assurances that Nigeria’s economy remains stable and resilient despite a recent joint security operation conducted by Nigerian and the US forces targeting ISIS-linked camps in Sokoto, which heightened fears to spook the market.

The apex last week stepped up FX intervention with $150 million and this week, sold $50 million to banks again in an unending intervention to stabilise the exchange rate.

As for the cryptocurrency market, major tokens rose as investors and traders took advantage of lower price entry. In the past few weeks, the markets was impacted by low liquidity and decline in risk appetites.

The focus is now on whether the market can maintain its support levels into the new year, as the tokens failed rally may signal a need for a deeper market reset.

Solana (SOL) improved by 1.5 per cent to $125.59, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 1.4 per cent to $864.28, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 1.2 per cent to $88,344.59, Ethereum (ETH) increased by 0.9 per cent to $2,968.64, Ripple (XRP) went up by 0.4 per cent to $1.86, and Litecoin (LTC) rose by 0.2 per cent to $78.13.

On the flip side, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 0.4 per cent to $0.1228, and Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3511, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) were flat at $1.00 each.