Economy
FG Foresees Nigerian Economy Growing by 4.68% in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms, the federal government said on Thursday.
The projection was outlined by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, during the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.
Mr Edun said Nigeria had moved beyond the crisis-management phase of recent years and was now entering a period of economic consolidation, where stability must translate into growth, jobs and improved living standards.
According to the minister, two years of difficult reforms have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, creating a platform for sustained expansion.
Inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025. Foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $45.5 billion.
GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion, Mr Edun said.
He warned, however, that Nigeria could not afford to reverse course.
Mr Edun said Nigeria cannot afford to pause or retreat from its reform agenda adding that the success of the consolidation phase would determine whether recent gains deliver productive jobs and shared prosperity.
The finance minister also addressed public concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt stock, which stood at about N152 trillion, insisting that the increase was largely the result of transparency and exchange rate adjustments rather than fresh borrowing.
He explained that about N30 trillion of the figure reflected previously unrecognised Ways and Means advances, now formally recorded, while nearly N49 trillion resulted from the revaluation of foreign debt following exchange rate reforms.
Despite the higher nominal figure, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 36.1 per cent, which the minister said remained among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.
Reviewing fiscal outcomes in 2025, Mr Edun said the government maintained discipline despite revenue pressures, particularly from the oil and gas sector.
The fiscal deficit was kept at about 3.4 per cent of GDP, while non-oil revenue performance improved and allocations to states increased, strengthening fiscal federalism.
He also said the government achieved 84 per cent capital budget execution for 2024 projects during the transition period.
The minister noted that the 2026 Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity, currently under deliberation by the National Assembly, would prioritise growth-enhancing investments.
The budget proposes N58.18 trillion in total spending, including N26 trillion for capital expenditure, representing about 44 per cent of the total budget, one of the largest capital spending plans in Nigeria’s history.
Inflation is projected to average 16.5 per cent in 2026, while the exchange rate is expected to stabilise around N1,400/$1.
Economy
NMDPRA Grants Six Petrol Import Permits to Stabilise Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has granted import permits for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol to six depot owners and petroleum marketers.
This step comes as the federal government moved to ensure stability and balance in the country’s downstream fuel sector after it was widely reported that the country suspended the issuance of petrol import licenses for a second straight month
The regulator recently issued these permits to six importers, with each authorised to import approximately 30,000 metric tonnes of the fuel into the country to help cushion against the effects of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
This development also occurs against the backdrop of ongoing discussions about supply concentration, with recent data showing that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied roughly 92 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol in February.
At present, the Dangote refinery is the sole facility in Nigeria producing petrol, while most modular refineries primarily focus on diesel output.
The Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria (CORAN) also confirmed that none have been issued so far in March, signalling a shift towards prioritising local output. However, this has since changed, spurred by the latest development.
Industry statistics show that local refining provided an average of about 36.5 million litres per day that month, with imports adding roughly 3 million litres daily, resulting in a total supply of around 39.5 million litres per day.
According to reports, until recently, no petrol import permits had been issued under the current NMDPRA leadership, suggesting that the new approvals signal a deliberate policy shift to preserve supply diversity and adaptability as the domestic market continues to develop.
Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, down from 60.2 million litres in January.
In February, the Dangote Refinery supplied 36.5 million litres of petrol and 8 million litres of diesel to the local market, leaving a daily deficit of 20 million litres that was covered by previously imported stock.
According to NMDPRA, these volumes were sufficient, leading to its earlier decision to withhold import licenses.
Economy
State Visit: CPPE, LCCI Urge Tinubu to Pursue Trade Expansion with UK
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) have called for trade expansion ahead of President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to the United Kingdom.
In separate communications, the organisations urged President Tinubu to deepen economic ties as he visits the UK on the invitation of the King of England, King Charles III. His state visit to the UK next week will mark Nigeria’s first such visit to the UK in 37 years, when Military President Ibrahim Babangida was head of state.
The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, said the planned visit by Mr Tinubu to the UK is significant on multiple fronts.
“At a time of shifting global alliances and economic realignments, the visit presents both opportunity and responsibility.
“It is expected that leading Nigerian business figures will accompany the President, creating a platform for expanding trade flows, deepening investment partnerships, promoting Nigeria as a destination for capital, and strengthening financial-sector linkages.
“The UK remains a major source of portfolio flows, development finance, and private-sector investment into Nigeria. Structured engagements during the visit could unlock opportunities in infrastructure, energy, financial services, technology, manufacturing, and agribusiness,” Mr Yusuf stated.
On her part, the Director General of the LCCI, Mrs Chinyere Almona, noted that the visit represents a historic opportunity to recalibrate Nigeria–UK relations from traditional diplomacy to focused economic diplomacy.
“At a time when Nigeria is implementing bold macroeconomic reforms, this visit should be leveraged to secure concrete commitments on trade expansion, long-term investment, and cooperation on the business environment.
“From the perspective of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the overriding objective should be to translate goodwill into measurable economic outcomes that strengthen Nigeria’s productive base and export capacity,” she said.
According to her, recent data underscore the strategic importance of the UK to Nigeria’s economy, noting that in Q3 2025, Nigeria recorded capital importation of approximately US$6.01 billion, representing a significant year-on-year surge.
“Notably, the United Kingdom emerged as Nigeria’s largest source of capital inflows, accounting for about US$2.94 billion, or nearly half of total inflows during the quarter. These inflows were driven predominantly by portfolio investment, particularly into the financial and banking sectors, reflecting renewed foreign investor confidence following Nigeria’s macroeconomic adjustments.
“On the trade front, total trade in goods and services between Nigeria and the UK stood at approximately £8 billion in the 12 months to mid-2025,” she said.
She said, however, that the relationship remains structurally imbalanced, with UK exports to Nigeria significantly exceeding Nigeria’s exports to the UK.
“Ultimately, the economic agenda of this state visit should be guided by Nigeria’s most pressing challenges: export diversification, inflation-induced cost pressures, infrastructure deficits, and the need for stable long-term capital,” Mrs Almona said in an interview with Nairametrics.
Economy
Preference for Foreign Currencies in Domestic Transactions Threat to Financial System—EFCC
By Dipo Olowookere
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has frowned on the use of foreign currencies for financial transactions in Nigeria, saying this could disrupt the nation’s stability.
The acting Zonal Director of the agency in Ilorin, Mrs Victoria Ugo-Ali, informed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the EFCC chairman, Mr Ola Olukoyede, is determined to curb the increasing preference for foreign currencies in domestic transactions, describing the practice “as a serious threat to the stability of the nation’s financial system.”
Speaking during a courtesy visit to the Branch Controller of the Ilorin Branch of the central bank, Mr Monga Muhammed, on Tuesday, Mrs Ugo-Ali noted that “many economic and financial crimes are perpetrated through financial institutions,” stressing the importance of timely intelligence and reports on suspicious transactions.
She called on the apex bank to continue providing the commission with relevant financial intelligence that would aid investigations and help curb money laundering and other financial crimes.
She also reiterated that the growing preference for foreign currencies in local transactions undermines the value of the naira and weakens public confidence in the national currency.
In his response, Mr Muhammed commended the Zonal Director and the management team of the EFCC for the visit, promising to sustain and deepen the already cordial relationship between the two organisations.
He described the engagement as the first of its kind and expressed optimism that it would further strengthen the cooperation between both institutions.
“At our end here, we will continue to partner with you because we carry out complementary functions. While your duty is to tackle economic and financial crimes, our responsibility, primarily as the apex bank, is to stabilise the economy and regulate financial institutions. We will not fail in that regard,” he said.
The CBN Branch Controller further disclosed that the apex bank had put several measures in place to address naira abuse and the dollarisation of the economy.
According to him, the CBN has the capacity to track currency in circulation and would not hesitate to apply appropriate sanctions against individuals or organisations found trading illegally in the nation’s currency.
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