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Spike in Energy Prices Raises Nigeria’s Inflation to 15.38% in March

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Nigeria's inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased in March 2026 to 15.38 per cent from 15.1o per cent in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 135.4 in March 2026, higher than the 130.0 in the preceding month by 5.4 points. The spike was likely stoked by the US-Israeli war on Iran, that’s pushed up the cost of fuel and has had a ripple effect in other areas.

At 15.38 per cent, the inflation numbers beat expectations of analysts at Meristem Research, which projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for the month should come in at 13.59 per cent, after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.

The March 2026 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.32 per cent compared to the February 2026 headline inflation rate. However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 at 2.01 per cent.

This means that last month, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level a month earlier.

Food inflation rate in the review month stood at 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis versus 25.22 per cent in the same month of last year. However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17 per cent, which is 0.52 per cent lower than the 4.69 per cent achieved in February 2026.

According to the stats office, “This can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh), Cassava Flour sold loose, etc.”

The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending March 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.21 per cent, which was 17.81 per cent lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2025 at 36.02 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, in March 2026, the urban inflation rate was 14.64 per cent, and 3.16 per cent on a month-on-month basis, which is 0.61 per cent higher than the 2.55 per cent in February 2026.

As for the rural inflation rate, it was 17.22 per cent in the month under consideration and on a month-on-month basis, it stood at 6.73 per cent versus 0.71 per cent a month earlier.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Wale Edun’s Claims of 1.8mbpd Crude Output Contrast Official Data

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wale edun

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, says Nigeria’s crude oil production has risen to 1.8 million barrels ​a day, contrasting with available production data.

Speaking in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday on ⁠the sidelines of the International Monetary ​Fund and World Bank Group spring ​meetings in Washington D.C., the Minister said the current oil output would generate fiscal breathing space that will allow the government to support vulnerable ​households as it ploughs ahead with ​reforms.

Nigeria, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is Africa’s largest oil producer.

Mr Edun said rising crude production was positive for Nigeria’s revenue, foreign exchange ​and the country’s fiscal situation.

“It gives us that extra fiscal space ‌within ⁠which to look at … helping the vulnerable households at this time,” he told the publication, noting that support would be targeted, adding “there is ​no thought ​of any ⁠return or retardation to broad untargeted subsidies.”

Mr Edun also said the Bola Tinubu-led administration was also ​committed to continuing its reform ​programme.

“Nigeria is in a position where the resilience that has been built in ⁠the ​economy is actually very ​obvious for all to see,” he said.

Despite the 1.8 million barrels per day figure claim, Business Post reports that production data for March 2026 from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria attained 1.546 million barrels per day, made up of 1.382 million barrels per day of crude, 42,809 barrels per day of blended condensate and 120,442 barrels per day of unblended condensate.

The average crude production represents 92 per cent of the OPEC quota, which is fixed at 1.5 million barrels per day.

NUPRC Nigeria crude output March 2026

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Economy

SEC Opens Capital Market to Free Trade Zone Companies

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SEC Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Securities and Exchange Commission Nigeria (SEC) has unveiled a new regulatory framework that would allow companies operating within free trade zones to raise capital from the Nigerian public, subject to strict eligibility and disclosure requirements.

The proposal, titled New Rules for Public Offering of Securities by a Free Trade Zone Entity, is anchored on provisions of the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 and is designed to integrate free trade zone enterprises into the domestic capital market while strengthening investor protection.

Under the proposed rules, only entities duly licensed by recognised free zone authorities, such as the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority and the Oil and Gas Free Zones Authority, will be eligible to issue shares to the public.

The commission clarified that the rules will apply strictly to free trade zone entities (FTZEs), excluding companies operating outside designated zones, even if licensed by zone authorities. It also emphasised that no FTZE will be permitted to offer securities to the public without prior approval from the Commission.

To qualify, an FTZE must demonstrate a minimum of three years’ operating track record immediately preceding its application, with at least two years of independent business activity within a free trade zone. Additionally, such entities are required to have competent senior management and a minimum paid-up share capital of not less than N7.5 billion.

The SEC said FTZEs seeking to access the capital market must subject themselves to Nigeria’s tax laws and comply fully with ongoing disclosure and reporting obligations applicable to publicly listed companies.

The proposed framework also outlines extensive registration requirements. Issuers will be required to submit evidence of licensing by a free zone authority, constitutional documents, and verified details of shareholding structure and board composition.

A “No Objection” letter from the relevant free zone authority will also be mandatory, alongside a commitment to list the offered shares on a registered securities exchange.

The SEC noted that the rules are intended to provide clarity on eligibility criteria and operational conditions for FTZEs seeking to conduct public offerings, thereby deepening the capital market and aligning free zone operations with national financial system standards.

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Economy

Guinness Nigeria Shareholders to Pocket N4.38bn Interim Dividend for Q1’26

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Guinness Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Shareholders of Guinness Nigeria Plc will share about N4.38 billion as an interim dividend for the first quarter of 2026, the board has disclosed.

This cash reward amounts to N2.00 per share, as the company has shares outstanding of 2,190,382,819 on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

The brewer stated that the interim dividend would be paid to investors whose names appear on the register of members as of the close of business on April 20, 2026.

The dividend payout is being proposed following the sustained profitability reflected in the unaudited financial results of the company in the first three months of this year and its “strong performance in FY 2025.”

It would be “paid from distributable profits in accordance with Sections 426–428 of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020.”

Analysis of the performance of the brewery giant between January and March 2026 showed that revenue grew by 4 per cent on a year-on-year basis to N122.77 billion from N118.34 billion in the same period of last year, while the gross profit contracted to N43.48 billion from N44.52 billion due to prevailing cost pressures within the operating environment.

The company’s operating profit also shrank to N17.18 billion from N18.00 billion in the first quarter of 2025 due to elevated marketing & distribution costs and administrative expenses.

However, the reduction in net finance costs to N1.43 billion from N7.72 billion in Q1 of 2025 helped the organisation to grow its post-tax profit to N10.39 billion in the period under review versus the N7.03 billion recorded in the corresponding period of last year.

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