Economy
Higher Fuel Costs Limit Growth as Stanbic IBTC PMI Reads 52.4 in April
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April 2026 stood at 52.4 points compared with the 51.9 points recorded in March 2026, a statement from the lender on Monday revealed.
Though the Nigerian private sector remained in growth territory, it was stunted by higher fuel costs because of the war in Iran, triggered by the United States and Israel, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rising fuel prices have limited expansions in new orders and business activity.
Companies took on extra staff in April in response to rising workloads, but the rate of job creation was only marginal and the softest in three months. Some organisations reported that staff shortages had been behind the latest accumulation of backlogs of work, while others cited customer payment delays and issues securing raw materials. Outstanding business increased for the third consecutive month in April.
Further efforts were made to secure materials, with purchasing activity increasing for the seventeenth month running in April. Stocks of purchases also rose amid improving customer demand, and at a marked pace that was the sharpest in five months. When companies placed orders for materials, they often made sure to pay on time in order to secure deliveries. As a result, supplier lead times shortened again, albeit to the least extent in 2026 so far.
“The health of Nigeria’s private sector improved in April – remaining above the 50-point growth threshold for the third consecutive month – as new orders increased in line with higher customer numbers and rising demand even as price pressures remain prevalent.
“Accordingly, the headline PMI increased to 52.4 points in April from 51.9 points seen in March,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, commented.
He further said, “Despite the improvement in new orders, we understand that lingering inflationary pressures limited the pace of expansion.
“Notably, companies increased their selling prices in April to the highest level since December 2024 in response to rising fuel and raw material costs. Staff costs also increased modestly as some companies increased their staff pay so as to help them with increasing transportation fares.
“Business expectations also improved in April compared to March as businesses plan to expand their operations through the opening of new branches, stock building, and entry into new markets.”
“The improved start of the second quarter of the year by Nigerian businesses continues to support our view of improved growth expectations in 2026 relative to 2025.
“Hence, we still maintain our expectation that the Nigerian economy is likely to grow by 4.22 per cent y/y in 2026, from 3.87 per cent y/y in 2025.
“We estimate the non-oil sector’s growth at 4.24 per cent y/y in 2026, from 3.71 per cent y/y in 2025, likely driven primarily by services, which we see growing by 5.64 per cent y/y in 2026 (vs 2025: 4.14 per cent y/y).
“The government’s continuous investment attraction across oil & gas, solid minerals, electricity, agriculture and general manufacturing should continue to support sentiment on production activity.
“However, the oil sector’s growth is likely to moderate to 3.01 per cent y/y (vs 2025: 8.50 per cent y/y), as we now expect crude oil production (including condensates) to average 1.70m bpd, from 1.64m bpd in 2025,” he added.
By Dipo Olowookere
The losing streak on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was halted on Friday after the bourse closed higher by 2.19 per cent at the close of trading activities.
The gains reported by Nigerian stocks were buoyed by renewed bargain-hunting by investors, which resulted in all the key sectors of Customs Street ended in the green territory.
The banking space rose by 2.78 per cent, the insurance counter appreciated by 1.26 per cent, the energy segment expanded by 0.36 per cent, the consumer goods index chalked up 0.06 per cent, and the industrial goods sector grew by 0.05 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 4,918.37 points to 229,240.34 points from 224,321.97 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N3.156 trillion to N147.103 trillion from N143.947 trillion.
Investor sentiment was bullish after 34 stocks ended on the price gainers’ chart and 18 stocks finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index.
The quintet of The Initiates, Universal Insurance, DAAR Communications, Omatek, and Airtel Africa surged by 10.00 per cent to sell for N25.85, 88 Kobo, N1.65, N1.76, and N5,274.00, respectively.
On the flip side, International Energy Insurance lost 9.96 per cent to trade at N4.70, Meyer shed 9.95 per cent to close at N18.55, Veritas Kapital dropped 5.07 per cent to finish at N1.31, Fidelity Bank slipped by 2.17 per cent to N18.00, and Jaiz Bank crashed by 1.84 per cent to N28.12.
During the session, a total of 414.7 million equities worth N25.1 billion exchanged hands in 47,106 deals compared with the 855.4 million equities valued at N28.4 billion transacted in the preceding day in 51,609 deals, implying a contraction in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 51.52 per cent, 11.62 per cent, and 8.73 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira closed flat against the United States Dollar at N1,370.19/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 3.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment by N2.29 to settle at N1,829.88/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,832.17/£1, and marginally depreciated against the Euro by 4 Kobo to close at N1,568.32/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,568.28/€1.
At the parallel market, the Naira also traded flat against the US Dollar at N1,390/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also maintained stability at N1,832/$1.
Market conditions improved shortly after the following minimal intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through modest Dollar sales, which boosted liquidity and supported stronger trading activity.
Easing pressure came after half-year profit-taking tapered down, while continued stronger policy signals from the central bank add to near-term support.
Deals executed at the official market on Friday came in at $70.430 million across 82 interbank deals, from $85.517 million the previous day.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continued its recovery after June non-farm payrolls printed at 57,000, less than half the 113,000 consensus, sending the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 64 per cent to 54 per cent and dragging AI stocks sharply lower.
Weak labour data reduces inflationary pressure and, by extension, the Federal Reserve’s justification for holding rates elevated. That transmission mechanism is direct: lower rate-hike odds compress the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto.
Bitcoin regained the $62,000 mark after it rose by 1.3 per cent to $62,475.29.
Cardano (ADA) gained 6.6 per cent to trade at $0.1759, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.14, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 2.4 per cent to $1,756.82, Dogecoin (DOGE) improved by 2.1 per cent to $0.0768, Solana (SOL) chalked up 1.8 per cent to $82.65, TRON (TRX) increased by 1.5 per cent to $0.3235, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.4 per cent to $569.12, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose minimally on Friday, as traders held on to hopes for a successful outcome from attempts to secure peace between the United States and Iran.
Brent futures were up 14 cents or 0.19 per cent to $71.94 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grew by 9 cents or 0.13 per cent to $68.78 a barrel.
Trading was light as US markets were closed ahead of the country’s Independence Day holiday on Saturday. On Thursday, the two oil benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February.
Analysts noted that investor hopes for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are being buoyed by peace talks between the US and Iran. The dealmaking process remains fragile but continues for now, as the question of the Strait of Hormuz tolls and administration remains contentious.
Citi Bank noted that there are expectations that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) will hold, not because trust has suddenly emerged, but because the incentives to break are poor for both sides.
China’s crude buying remains weak; physical prices have crumbled due to the surge of prompt supply from the Middle East, while inventories have drawn far less than expected.
Some shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, as called for under the initial US-Iranian deal, but uncertainty is high after the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.
With the prospect of shipping more oil, Gulf producers are working to increase output. Kuwait’s oil production rose sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, from 580,000barrels per day in May while at least five supertankers carrying a total of 10 million barrels of Saudi oil have left the strait and Saudi Aramco has switched to spot pricing from longer-term contracts to speed sales in Asia.
According to Reuters’ monthly survey, the 11 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) produced 19.43 million barrels per day in June, up 3.3 million barrels per day from May, when output plunged to the lowest level recorded by the survey since at least 2000.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq also boosted output, while Nigeria and Libya posted smaller increases despite avoiding the worst of the Gulf disruptions.
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