Economy
Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).
In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.
ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).
In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”
Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.
The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.
“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).
“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).
“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.
“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.
Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.
Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.
The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.
“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.
“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.
“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.
“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.
“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.
“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).
“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
FG Saves N6trn in Fuel Subsidy Payments in 2025—NMDPRA Chief
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Mr Saidu Mohammed, has revealed that bold economic reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration saved the country over N6 trillion on petroleum product imports in just the first nine months of 2025.
Mr Mohammed disclosed this while speaking at the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja, said the savings were the result of full downstream deregulation, harmonisation of the forex market, and the trading of crude and petroleum products in Naira.
He added that these bold moves have created stability in the downstream petroleum market, encouraged investment, and ensured a sufficient supply of petroleum products across the country.
The NMDPRA boss also revealed that the nation’s refining capacity is expected to surpass 1 million barrels per stream day (bpsd) in the medium term.
He said the surge in domestic refining capacity is being driven by a combination of new refinery investments, the rehabilitation of existing Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited refineries, and strategic private-sector participation.
According to him, the planned investments in other refineries, along with issued Licences to Establish (LTEs) for new facilities, will continue to expand Nigeria’s refining footprint, reducing dependence on imported products and stabilising domestic supply.
He said: “For decades, our downstream value chain has been associated with negative sectoral performance indicators such as infrastructural deficit, weak market structures, sub-optimal supply chain efficiency, inadequate investment, poor regulatory compliance, and unacceptable operational safety and environmental indices.
“Today, I am pleased to affirm that this narrative is rapidly changing and that the sector is truly witnessing the early but irreversible signs of a renaissance-type transformation that is driven by bold reform; enabled by investment; and sustained by effective market and operational regulatory enablement.
“In the few years of the operationalisation of the new legal framework of the Oil and Gas sector in Nigeria (PIA 2021), Nigeria’s downstream sector has evolved into a fully liberalised market and is no longer defined by scarcity and supply uncertainty.
Supply stability has consistently ensured sufficiency of all Petroleum products. The pricing structure of the downstream sector is becoming more driven by the fundamentals of the market and generally attaining the stability level required for encouraging investment in this expansive sector of the economy.
“The supply chain landscape of the sector, which depended significantly on import of nearly all Petroleum Products for a long time, is rapidly transforming with growing supply through the nation’s domestic refining capacity, expanding gas-based alternative fuels, improved logistics, and increased private-sector participation.
“At the heart of this transformation stands the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the largest single-train refinery in the world with an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd), which is currently contributing a significant portion and in some cases 100 per cent of our domestic requirement of Petroleum Products. The optimal operationalisation of the plant’s installed capacity and future upscaling of the plant is undoubtedly needed to fulfil the national aspirations of making Nigeria a regional and continental energy hub.
“The capacity for enhanced domestic supply of Petroleum product in Nigeria will continue to grow as the planned investments in our refinery sector mature. We are optimistic that the issued Licences to Establish (LTEs) refineries, which are being progressed through various levels of completion, coupled with the rehabilitation of the NNPCL refineries, will improve the overall installed refining capacity in Nigeria to well over 1 million bpsd in the medium term.
“The bold economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu have created the renaissance that the downstream sector is enjoying and would continue to leverage upon for sustained sectoral growth in the future. The cumulative impact of the full deregulation of the downstream sector, the harmonisation of the forex market, the incentivization and deepening the use of gas and the trading of crude and product in Naira has reduced the fiscal economic losses of importing Petroleum Product by over N6 trillion in the 1st nine months of 2025.”
Economy
Nigeria Targets 10bscfd Gas Production in Next Four Years
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government says Nigeria is targeting gas production of 10 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) by 2030, positioning natural gas as a cornerstone of national energy security and economic prosperity.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Mr Ekperikpe Ekpo, said this while delivering a ministerial address at the ninth Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026 in Abuja.
The Minister said the government’s efforts were yielding tangible results, with Nigeria’s gas production maintaining an upward trajectory in 2025, averaging between 7.5 and 7.6bscfd.
He disclosed that domestic gas supply exceeded two bscfd for the first time, marking a historic milestone for power generation, industrial use and household consumption.
The Minister also said significant progress in environmental performance, with gas flaring reduced to some of the lowest levels recorded in recent years, in line with Nigeria’s commitment to end routine gas flaring by 2030.
He noted that investor confidence in the gas sector had been strengthened, citing Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in key upstream gas projects supported by improved regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
“Across the midstream and downstream segments, pipeline infrastructure, processing facilities and gas-to-power projects have expanded, improving connectivity, boosting domestic utilisation and supporting cleaner cooking solutions, job creation and industrial stability.
“Under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, government policy prioritises the expansion of domestic gas infrastructure while strengthening Nigeria’s presence in regional and global gas markets.
“This includes facilitating investments in gas processing, storage and distribution, as well as accelerating gas-to-power projects aimed at addressing energy poverty and enhancing industrial competitiveness,” he said.
The minister emphasised that Nigeria’s energy future was inseparable from peace, partnership and shared responsibility, calling on governments, investors, development partners, host communities and civil society to move from dialogue to decisive action.
“Our collective task is to build an energy system that powers prosperity, strengthens stability and supports regional integration,” he said.
He said Nigeria’s energy strategy is firmly aligned with global energy transition realities while responding to Africa’s unique development challenges, including widespread energy poverty, limited industrial capacity and inadequate access to reliable power.
“While the world moves towards lower-carbon systems, Africa must pursue a transition that is not only green, but also just, inclusive and development-driven.
“Nigeria is leveraging its abundant natural gas resources to balance climate responsibility with economic development, positioning gas as the backbone of industrial growth, job creation and expanded energy access,” he said.
Economy
Transcorp, DMO, CardinalStone, Chapel Hill Denham, Others Win at NGX Made of Africa Awards
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The 2025 Made of Africa Awards, hosted by Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, paraded an array of winners, including brokers, issuing houses, trustees, fund managers, listed companies, and other market participants.
The event was to reward excellence in value delivery, compliance, and market impact, with Transcorp, the Debt Management Office, CardinalStone, Chapel Hill Denham, and MTN Nigeria Communications as recipients.
Business Post reports that the other recipients were First Trustees Limited as the Best Trustees in Terms of Deal Value, Legend Internet as the Market Debut Excellence award winner.
Further, CardinalStone Securities emerged as Equity Trader of the Year and Broker of the Year, Capital Express Securities won ETPs Trader of the Year, and Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers was named Fixed Income Trader of the Year. Chapel Hill Denham received awards for Fund Manager with the Largest Listed Fund Size and Market Operator with the Highest Value of Foreign Portfolio Investment Transactions.
Mainstreet Capital and APT Securities and Funds jointly won Issuing House with the Highest Number of Primary Market Equity Transactions, while Anchoria Advisory Services led in corporate bond issuances. Dangote Cement was named Best Issuer in Terms of Fixed Income Listings, BUA Cement received the award for Most Compliant Listed Company, and Transnational Corporation Plc was honoured for Capital Market Excellence in Equity. Network Capital was named the Most Compliant Trading License Holder, United Capital Securities won the Best Sponsoring Trading License Holder and Banwo and Ighodalo received recognition for legal advisory value in capital market transactions.
Special recognition went to the Debt Management Office for fixed income market development and to the Capital Markets Correspondence Association of Nigeria for capital market reporting, and Lambeth Capital/Bamboo Systems Technology were recognised for onboarding the highest number of new retail investor accounts.
The chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, said the awards underscore the role of market stakeholders in strengthening investor confidence and improving market standards.
“Their achievements set a benchmark for performance, integrity and innovation across the capital market,” he said, adding that sustaining this level of discipline and transparency is essential to maintaining the trust of both domestic and international investors in Nigeria’s financial markets.
The chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “Operational efficiency and cooperation across the ecosystem are increasingly important as trading activity diversifies and investor expectations continue to rise.”
On his part, the Executive Commissioner for Operations at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Bola Ajomale, said the awards underscore the value of compliance and transparency in market development.
“Recognition through the Made of Africa Awards reinforces the importance of adherence to market rules and standards. When operators demonstrate accountability and professionalism, it strengthens investor confidence, ensures market integrity, and supports sustainable growth across Nigeria’s financial markets,” he said.
The chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said recognising strong performance across the ecosystem supports deeper market participation and long-term capital mobilisation.
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