Economy
Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).
In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.
ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).
In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”
Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.
The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.
“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).
“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).
“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.
“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.
Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.
Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.
The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.
“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.
“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.
“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.
“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.
“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.
“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).
“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
Verto Introduces Dollar Business Accounts to Power US–Africa Trade Flows
By Adedapo Adesanya
Vert, a global cross-border payments platform, has announced a new solution under Verto Business Accounts that enables US-registered businesses to move money seamlessly between the United States and Africa.
With the ability to open a US Dollar account in their business name and have access to trusted emerging market payment rails, companies can now receive, hold, and transfer funds faster, more cost-effectively, and with greater control.
US-registered businesses with operations in Africa often encounter significant banking limitations, with US banks frequently delaying or blocking transactions to or from African markets, imposing high or hidden FX costs, and offering limited access to Emerging Market payment corridors. Businesses without a US bank account registered in their own name must rely on fragmented tools or intermediaries to move funds to Africa, creating operational inefficiencies and slowing growth.
Verto’s new solution directly addresses these challenges by giving US-domiciled businesses access to named USD accounts and a robust cross-border payment infrastructure, enabling them to move funds and settle transactions in local currencies with speed and efficiency.
Built for venture-backed startups, import-export SMEs, and investors funding emerging market innovation, this solution will enable clients to receive funds directly into a named USD business account from US based customers or investors, convert and settle between USD and local currencies such as NGN and KES quickly and at lower cost, as well as hold, receive, and pay in 48 currencies from a single dashboard.
The solution will also allow users to pay contractors, suppliers, and offshore teams instantly via local payment rails. It also equips teams with virtual cards to spend in 11 currencies without fees and leverage specialised onboarding and monitoring that navigates both US and African regulatory requirements
By combining US and African compliance expertise, Verto’s Business Accounts empowers companies to maintain a US domestic presence for investors, customers, and suppliers while using deep-liquidity rails to pay global contractors and settle trades in local currencies efficiently, ensuring uninterrupted trade, payroll, and investment flows, without the risk of blocked or delayed transactions.
“We believe founders building across borders should not be constrained by the limitations of traditional banking,” said Ola Oyetayo, CEO of Verto. “Providing named accounts in the US empowers businesses with the funds they need to operate globally, connecting the US and Africa more efficiently without friction.”
With over 8 years of experience and $25 billion in annual global cross-border transaction volume, Verto continues to provide the infrastructure, expertise, and trusted payment rails businesses need to operate confidently across borders and scale globally.
Economy
PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.
The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.
The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.
The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.
“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.
“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.
“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”
She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.
The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.
All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.
The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.
Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.
PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.
Economy
DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.
The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.
Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.
The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.
The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.
The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.
Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.
An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.
It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.
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