Economy
Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).
In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.
ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).
In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”
Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.
The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.
“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).
“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).
“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.
“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.
Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.
Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.
The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.
“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.
“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.
“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.
“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.
“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.
“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).
“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
Chilla Entertainment Injects N2bn into Zichis Agro Allied Industries
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A strategic non-equity capital of N2 billion has been pumped into one of Nigeria’s emerging integrated agribusiness companies, Zichis Agro Allied Industries Plc.
Chilla Entertainment is one of the promoters of Zichis. The capital injection reaffirms the investor’s confidence in the company’s vision, growth prospects, and long-term value creation strategy.
In a note to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the funds will be a long-term liability in the company’s balance sheet to be redeemed at a future date in terms of debt conversion to equity during a public offer or rights issues.
It is designed to transform Zichis into one of Nigeria’s leading agro-industrial enterprises with a fully integrated value chain spanning feed production, poultry farming, palm cultivation, and agro-processing.
The newly injected capital will primarily be deployed towards expanding the firm’s operational capacity and strengthening its working capital position.
Key areas of investment include a significant increase in poultry production capacity, strengthening of the company’s integrated livestock value chain, and enhancement of operational efficiency and output levels.
In addition, the N2 billion would be used to increase the procurement of raw materials to support higher production volumes, grow the supply chain for the organisation’s feed mill operations, and position the business to meet growing demand within Nigeria’s livestock and poultry sectors.
Also, Zichis will accelerate the cultivation of its newly acquired 2,000-acre agricultural land in Ogun State to significantly increase its agricultural asset base and future revenue-generating capacity.
Zichis is strategically positioning itself to capitalise on these opportunities through its diversified agribusiness model, expanding production footprint, and disciplined execution strategy.
The endgame is to enhance shareholder value, expand operational capacity, build sustainable competitive advantages, and deliver long-term returns to investors.
Recently, the board and management visited the Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) in Edo State for a strategic partnership on the acquisition of high-yield oil palm seedlings and the implementation of modern cultivation techniques across its expanding palm estate.
This collaboration is expected to enhance productivity, improve long-term yields, and support the company’s objective of becoming a major participant in Nigeria’s growing palm oil value chain.
Zichis reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the highest standards of corporate governance, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.
Economy
Nigerian Manufacturers Caution on Hasty Ban on Textile Imports
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has called for stakeholder engagement over the Senate’s request for a ban on the import of textile materials.
The Director-General of the association, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said such a policy without proper engagement will only lead to failure.
“I want to appeal to the National Assembly: let us not go down this route the same way again. The failure of policy in Nigeria has principally been due to a lack of stakeholder engagement. You cannot shave a man’s head in his absence,” he said on Channels TV breakfast show on Wednesday.
“We pass resolutions, introduce policies, and enact laws that do not substantially reflect what is happening on the ground. That is why well-intentioned moves fail to achieve their objectives.
“We need stakeholder engagement. We need to bring all the existing textile industries to the table and ask them, ‘When, how, and where can you scale?’ We have an idea of the national demand, and we know the reasons why they are operating below 30 per cent of installed capacity. The question is, does the government have the political will to do what it takes to help them deliver?”
On Tuesday, the Senate asked the federal government to ban the importation of textile materials in a bid to boost local production and revive the country’s struggling textile industry.
It urged the federal government, through the Ministries of Agriculture and Trade and Investment, to take urgent steps to resuscitate textile manufacturing across the country, particularly along the Kaduna-Kano industrial corridor, citing its potential to create jobs and address rising youth unemployment and insecurity.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir said the country can meet its textile needs, but believes revival of the industry has to go beyond “passing” resolutions.
“It needs to be actively supported by measures that we have consistently recommended but have not yet been implemented,” the MAN chief said.
“For instance, are we going to enforce the patronage of made-in-Nigeria textiles within the government? When the National Assembly passed this resolution, how many of them were wearing made-in-Nigeria garments? If you look closer, how many of us are driving cars assembled in Nigeria?
“If you legislate a ban on textile imports, it must go hand-in-hand with the diligent implementation of Executive Order 003 and a ‘Nigeria First’ mindset. Are we going to enforce it from the Presidency to the National Assembly, the military, uniformed agencies, and even schools? Are we ready to enforce a ‘Nigeria Day’ where everyone is obliged to wear what is made in Nigeria?
“Is the government going to do its bit? Are we going to reject textile, garment, or uniform items in the budget unless they show a direct connection to local production? Are we going to muster what it takes to effectively implement the 30 per cent Common External Tariff (CET) on imports from third countries? Are we going to secure our borders so that the ban does not come to nought?
“A major conversation needs to take place for us to be serious about enforcing an import ban. It is not just by fiat,” he said on the show.
Economy
Oyedele Says IMF Latest Assessment Positive
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has endorsed the 2026 Article IV Mission Concluding Statement on Nigeria by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), saying the report provides further independent validation that the bold and necessary reforms undertaken under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu are strengthening macroeconomic stability.
He noted the IMF’s overall positive assessment of the country’s economic reform programme, which projected economic growth of 4.1 per cent in 2026 despite persistent poverty, food insecurity, and renewed inflationary pressures arising from rising global fuel and food prices.
The Fund said that although the reforms have delivered improved macroeconomic outcomes, conditions remain difficult for many Nigerians. According to the IMF, poverty reached 63 per cent based on the national poverty line, while an estimated 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025.
According to Mr Oyedele, the IMF observed that reforms implemented over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and enhanced Nigeria’s resilience to external shocks.
He said the Fund specifically highlighted improvements in foreign exchange market functioning, stronger external buffers, ongoing fiscal and revenue reforms, banking sector resilience, and growing macroeconomic stability.
“These developments affirm that Nigeria is moving in the right direction and is better positioned to withstand global economic uncertainties than at any time in recent years.
“The government is particularly encouraged by the IMF’s recognition that the difficult but necessary decisions to end fuel subsidies, eliminate deficit monetisation, liberalise the foreign exchange market, and strengthen fiscal discipline have contributed significantly to reducing vulnerabilities and rebuilding confidence in the economy. The report notes that Nigeria now faces global shocks with stronger policy frameworks and buffers than before.”
Mr Oyedele said the recent conflict in the Middle East has created new challenges for economies around the world through higher energy prices, rising food costs, tighter financial conditions, and disruptions to global supply chains. While these developments present inflationary pressures, the IMF acknowledged that Nigeria has demonstrated notable resilience.
He added that despite significant increases in global energy prices, the foreign exchange parallel market premium has remained below five per cent, sovereign spreads have remained broadly stable, and investor confidence has been preserved.
“The IMF further noted that Nigeria is well-positioned to benefit from higher energy prices through stronger export earnings, improved fiscal revenues, and increased foreign exchange inflows.”
The minister explained that the federal government remains focused on translating these opportunities into long-term gains by increasing crude oil production, expanding domestic refining capacity, growing gas production and exports, and attracting new investments across the energy value chain.
“While challenges remain, the direction is clear, and the foundations are stronger. The ultimate objective of these reforms is not merely improved economic indicators, but better outcomes for all Nigerians: lower inflation, decent jobs, higher incomes, greater economic opportunity, and a better quality of life,” he said.
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