Economy
Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists
By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).
In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.
ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).
In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”
Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.
The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.
“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).
“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).
“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.
“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.
Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.
Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.
The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.
“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.
“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.
“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.
“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.
“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.
“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).
“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
Seplat to Boost Nigeria’s Oil Production With Mobil Assets Acquisition
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seplat Energy Plc will revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow after completing the acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil.
The company said it aims to lift oil output to about 200,000 barrels a day, a move that will help boost Nigeria’s oil production levels, as it aims to reach 2 million barrels per day next year.
The transaction, according to Seplat, “is transformative for Seplat Energy, more than doubling production and positioning the company to drive growth and profitability, whilst contributing significantly to Nigeria’s future prosperity.”
The completion of the Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.
Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October approved the deal as part of a series of approvals, while it blocked Shell’s asset sale of up to $2.4 billion to the Renaissance consortium.
The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.
MPNU adds substantial reserves and production to Seplat Energy; 409 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) 2P reserves and 670 MMboe 2P + 2C reserves and resources as at 30 June 2024 and 6M 2024 average daily production of 71.4 kboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent).
Business Post reports that Seplat will be part of the payment this year, and will defer some to next year,
Speaking on the transaction, the Chairman of Seplat Energy, Mr Udoma Udo Udoma commended President Bola Tinubu for supporting this transaction and appreciated the support and diligence of the various ministries and regulators for all the work to reach a successful conclusion.
“We are delighted to welcome the MPNU employees to Seplat Energy. We are excited to begin our journey in a new region of the country, and we look forward to replicating the positive impacts we have achieved within our communities in our current areas of operations.
“Seplat’s mission is to deliver value to all our stakeholders, and we treasure the good relationships we have developed with the government, regulators, communities and our staff.”
On his part, the chief executive of Seplat Energy, Mr Roger Brown, described the acquisition as a major milestone, adding, “I extend my thanks to the entire Seplat team for their hard work and perseverance to complete this transaction.
“MPNU’s employees and contractors have a strong reputation for safety and operational excellence, and I welcome them to the Seplat Energy Group.
“We have acquired a company with one of the best portfolios of assets and related infrastructure in a world-class basin, providing enormous potential for the Seplat Group. Our commitment is to invest to increase oil and gas production while reducing costs and emissions, maximising value for all our stakeholders.
“MPNU is a perfect fit with our strategy to build a sustainable business that can deliver affordable, accessible and reliable energy for Nigeria alongside attractive returns to our shareholders”.
Economy
PenCom Projects N22trn Pension Assets for 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) is projected to close the year with over N22 trillion in pension assets impacted by challenges like inflation and monetary policies.
This is according to PenCom Director-General, Mrs Omolola Oloworaran, at a press conference in Abuja on Thursday.
She said as of October 2024, the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) had 10.53 million registered contributors and pension fund assets worth N21.92 trillion.
Speaking at the conference-themed Tech-driven Transformation Shaping the Pension Landscape, which showcased PenCom’s strategic commitment to innovation, she said that the numbers reflected the agency’s unwavering commitment to fund safety, prudent management, and sustainable growth.
She explained that the pension environment was impacted by the wider economic challenges facing the country, noting that the sector battled multi-year high inflation, Naira devaluation, and the lingering effects of unorthodox monetary policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Business Post reports that the apex bank hiked interest rates by 875 basis points this year alone to tackle persistent inflation which peaked at 33.8 per cent as of October.
She said that these challenges eroded the real value of pension funds and impacted contributors’ purchasing power.
“To address these issues, the commission has initiated a comprehensive review of its investment regulations.
“It is focusing on diversifying pension fund investments into inflation-protected instruments, alternative assets, and foreign currency-denominated investments.
“The goal is to safeguard contributor savings and ensure resilience against future economic volatility,” she said.
She restated the commission’s commitment to expanding pension coverage, particularly through the advanced micro-pension plan designed to encourage participation from the informal sector using technology.
“This initiative will make it easier for everyday Nigerians to save for retirement, aligning with our vision of inclusive growth and financial stability for all.
“The backlog in retirement benefits for retirees of the Federal Government’s Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) will soon be settled.
“The federal government recently disbursed N44 billion under the 2024 budget to settle approved pension rights.
“We are collaborating with the Federal Government to institutionalise a sustainable solution to ensure retirees receive their benefits promptly, eliminating delays,” Mrs Oloworaran said.
She said that PenCom’s technology-driven transformation aimed to make the CPS more accessible, reliable, and sustainable.
“From data management to seamless contributions and regulatory supervision, we are paving the way for a future where the pension industry serves all Nigerians effectively,” she said,
Mrs Oloworaran also said that the e-application portal for pension clearance certificates has replaced the manual processes and enhanced the ease of doing business in the sector.
“Since its deployment, 38,528 pension clearance certificates have been issued. This initiative ensures compliance and secures the future of Nigerians working in organisations that interact with the government,” she said.
Economy
NASD OTC Securities Exchange Closes Flat
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Thursday, December 12 after it ended the trading session with no single price gainer or loser.
As a result, the market capitalisation remained unchanged at N1.055 trillion as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) followed the same route, remaining at 3,012.50 points like the previous trading session.
However, the activity chart witnessed changes as the volume of securities traded at the bourse went down by 92.5 per cent to 447,905 units from the 5.9 million units transacted a day earlier.
In the same vein, the value of securities bought and sold by investors declined by 86.6 per cent to N3.02 million from the N22.5 million recorded in the preceding trading day.
But the number of deals carried out during the session remained unchanged at 21 deals, according to data obtained by Business Post.
When trading activities ended for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third place with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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