Economy
IMF: Nigeria’s Economy Still Vulnerable, Predicts 2.1% Growth in 2018
By Dipo Olowookere
Despite getting out of recession in the second quarter of this year, the Nigerian economy still remains vulnerable, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed.
From December 6 to 20, 2017, an IMF staff team led by Mr Amine Mati, Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, visited the country to conduct the 2018 Article IV consultation.
During the visit, the team held discussions with senior government and central bank officials. It also met with members of parliament, representatives of the banking system, private sector, civil society, and international development partners.
After the visit, Mr Mati observed that, “Overall growth is slowly picking up but recovery remains challenging. Economic activity expanded by 1.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017—the second consecutive quarter of positive growth after five quarters of recession—driven by recovering oil production and agriculture.
“However, growth in the non-oil-non-agricultural sector (representing about 65 percent of the economy), contracted in the first three quarters of 2017 relative to the same period last year.”
According to Mr Mati, “Difficulties in accessing financing and high inflation continued to weigh on companies’ performance and consumer demand.
“Headline inflation declined to 15.9 percent by end-November, from 18½ percent at end-2016, but remains sticky despite tight liquidity conditions.
“High fiscal deficits—driven by weak revenue mobilization—generated large financing needs, which, when combined with tight monetary policy necessary to reduce inflationary pressures, increased pressure on bond yields and crowded out private sector credit. These factors contributed to raising the ratio of interest payments to federal government revenue to unsustainable levels.
“Reflecting the low growth environment and exposure to the oil and gas sector, the banking industry’s solvency ratios have declined from almost 15 to 10.5 percent between December 2016 and October 2017, and non-performing loans have increased from 5 percent in June 2015 to 15 percent as of October 2017, although with provisioning coverage of about 82 percent.
“The authorities have begun addressing macroeconomic imbalances and structural impediments through the implementation of policies underpinning the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
“Supported by recovering oil prices, the new Investor and Exporter foreign exchange window has increased investor confidence and provided impetus to portfolio inflows, which have helped to increase external buffers to a four-year high, and contributed to reducing the parallel market premium.
“Important actions under the Power Sector Recovery Program increased power supply generation and ensured government agencies pay their electricity bills. Welcome steps were also taken to improve the business environment and to address longstanding corruption issues, including through the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy in August 2017.
“However, in the absence of new policies, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Growth is expected to continue to pick up in 2018 to 2.1 percent, helped by the full year impact of greater availability of foreign exchange and higher oil production, but to stay relatively flat in the medium term. Risks to the outlook include lower oil prices, tighter external market conditions, heightened security issues, and delayed policy responses.
“Containing vulnerabilities and achieving growth rates that can make a significant dent in reducing poverty and unemployment requires a comprehensive set of policy measures.”
“On the fiscal front, the mission welcomes the recent tax reforms aimed at improving tax administration, planned increases in excises, and latest steps taken to lower debt servicing costs and lengthen maturities.
“However, with oil prices expected to remain lower than in the past, upfront actions to mobilize non-oil revenues, including through reforming the VAT and removing exemptions, are needed while safeguarding priority expenditures, including scaling up social safety nets and infrastructure investment.”
“Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a monetary policy stance that remains tight to further reduce inflation and anchor inflation expectations. Moving toward a unified and market-based exchange rate as soon as possible while continuing to strengthen external buffers would be necessary to increase confidence and reduce potential risks from capital flow reversals.”
“Such a policy package—along with structural reform implementation, including by building on recent successes to improve the business environment, closing infrastructure gaps, and implementing the power sector reform plan——would lay the foundation for a diversified private-sector led economy. Strengthening governance and transparency initiatives, and lowering gender inequality and fostering financial inclusion would also be important.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions has called for stronger collaboration among financial sector regulators and other stakeholders to strengthen Nigeria’s financial system and support sustainable economic growth.
The committee made the call during an expanded stakeholders’ engagement in Lagos, attended by the leadership of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) and Nigeria Export-Import Bank (NEXIM), among other industry stakeholders and financial experts.
Chairman of the committee, Mr Adetokunbo Abiru (Lagos East), who was represented by Mr Osita Izunaso (Imo West), said stronger legislative reforms and regulatory collaboration were necessary to reposition Nigeria’s financial architecture for long-term economic prosperity.
Mr Abiru said the financial sector remained critical to investment, job creation, business expansion and macroeconomic stability, stressing that its ability to mobilise savings, channel credit to productive sectors, facilitate investment and manage risks was fundamental to sustainable economic growth.
He said the current economic realities required closer collaboration between the legislature and financial regulators, noting that challenges confronting the sector were interconnected and could not be effectively addressed through isolated interventions.
The lawmaker identified inflationary pressures, global economic uncertainties, cybersecurity threats, low insurance penetration and the need to diversify Nigeria’s export base as some of the challenges requiring coordinated policy responses.
He said the engagement was aimed at generating practical solutions to strengthen the country’s financial architecture and support sustainable economic growth.
According to him, monetary policy, financial safety nets, banking institutions, the insurance industry and export finance were interdependent components of a stable financial system and must therefore be strengthened collectively.
The Commissioner for Insurance and Chief Executive Officer of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), Mr Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, said the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025 had contributed significantly to stabilising and repositioning the insurance sector.
Mr Omosehin disclosed that 43 insurance companies had successfully recapitalised, describing the development as a major milestone for the industry.
He commended Abiru and members of the committee for their role in advancing insurance sector reforms and urged the House of Representatives to expedite action on the relevant insurance reform bill to enable it to receive presidential assent and become operational.
Representatives of the CBN Governor and the Managing Directors of AMCON, NEXIM and NDIC also commended the Senate committee for its oversight and legislative support, saying its interventions had strengthened the agencies’ capacity to discharge their statutory mandates.
The engagement, held under the theme, Strengthening Financial System Architecture for Sustainable Economic Growth and Stability in Nigeria, also featured presentations by Professor Uche Uwaleke, President of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (CMAN); Professor Biodun Adedipe, Chief Consultant, B. Adedipe Associates Limited; and Dr Tilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory.
The experts presented policy recommendations on key issues affecting Nigeria’s financial system, with emphasis on financial stability, investment and sustainable economic growth.
Mr Abiru said the Senate would continue to engage financial regulators and other stakeholders to deepen financial inclusion, strengthen public confidence in financial institutions and improve regulatory effectiveness.
He said the broader objective was to position Nigeria’s financial system to compete more effectively in the global economy while remaining resilient and responsive to the country’s economic transformation agenda.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The first six months of 2026 were not too good for Caverton Offshore Support Group Plc, as it suffered an N8.7 billion loss compared with the N2.1 billion net profit it recorded in the same period of 2025.
This occurred as the company posted a 10.91 per cent decline in earnings between January and June 2026, according to its financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026.
Analysis of the results showed that the revenue generated in the period under review stood at N14.7 billion versus the N16.5 billion printed in the corresponding period of last year.
Business Post observed that the revenue was negatively impacted by a decline in earnings from helicopter charter and helicopter/airplane contract.
Further analysis of the financial results indicated that operating profit went down by 22.34 per cent to N7.3 billion from N9.4 billion, with administrative expenses jumping to N7.9 billion from N4.7 billion.
But Caverton believes things will get better, noting that the clearest driver of the recovery is Caverton Marine.
Through its relationship with Stena Bulk, one of the world’s leading tanker operators, the organisation now participates in three Suezmax tankers trading a rare source of foreign-currency revenue for a Nigerian-listed company.
It noted that the relationship is being deepened through Unity Shipping Worldwide, a joint venture with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Stena Bulk that pairs the state-owned oil firm’s national position and Stena Bulk’s fleet with Caverton’s indigenous operating platform
Closer to home, the firm’s OMIBUS platform, developed with Shanghai-based electric-propulsion OEM Explomar, is bringing battery-electric passenger ferries to Lagos waterways. A prototype is already in service, and Caverton holds a firm order from Lagos State for ten vessels, an early-mover position in clean inland-water transport that the group believes can be replicated across other states as the fleet enters service and ferry operations mature into steady, recurring revenue.
In aviation, the institution said the recovery is anchored on its partnership with NHV, a Belgium-based international helicopter operator, with the restructuring of charter operations targeted for the second half of 2026.
“The first half of the year tested us, but the direction of travel is now visible in the numbers.
“Quarter on quarter, we are working to build up our revenue to narrow losses. Our marine business units, from international tankers to electric ferries, are scaling.
“Meanwhile, our aviation relaunch is on track for the second half, and our cost base is tighter than it has been in years. There is distance still to travel, but Caverton is moving from stabilisation to recovery, and we intend to finish 2026 with that momentum intact,” the chief executive of Caverton, Mr Olabode Makanjuola, stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) have issued new guidelines clarifying the taxation of virtual assets in Nigeria.
The guidelines provide an administrative framework for the taxation of virtual assets and specify the tax obligations of individuals and businesses operating in the sector.
According to a public notice issued by the two agencies, the framework covers registration, reporting and record-keeping requirements, valuation principles and the tax treatment of virtual asset transactions.
It applies to taxpayers, Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs), peer-to-peer (P2P) marketplace operators, tax practitioners and other persons engaged in virtual asset-related activities.
The NRS and JRB said the guidelines were developed in line with the provisions of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025.
The two bodies said the release was aimed at providing clarity, certainty and consistency in the administration of Nigeria’s tax laws as the country’s virtual asset ecosystem continues to evolve.
The agencies added that the framework would promote voluntary compliance, enhance transparency and support the development of a fair and efficient tax system for digital asset transactions.
They urged all affected taxpayers and stakeholders to familiarise themselves with the guidelines and ensure compliance with the applicable tax obligations.
The guidelines are available on the official websites of the two agencies.
