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Dangote Sugar Outlook Remains Positive Despite Market Share Dropping to 60%

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Dangote Sugar

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The 2017 financial year was good for Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc despite some challenges the company faced.

During the year, the firm had to deal with less expensive sugar smuggled into the country, which impacted on its sales and market share, which dropped to 60 percent.

But despite this, the company managed to grow its revenue by 20 percent year-on-year, while the average selling prices went up by 43 percent y/y to offset a 16 percent y/y decline in sugar volumes sold during the year.

According to Ifedayo Olowoporoku of Vetiva Capital Management Limited, the top line figure came in at a record high of N204 billion, marginally below expectation.

She said the deviation was largely driven by lower than expected volume rollout in Q4’17 (3 percent q/q rise versus 11 percent Vetiva estimate) as well as some price cut recorded within the quarter.

Vetiva said whilst management noted that government’s effort to curtail smuggling has been somewhat impactful, the company has had to take further price cuts in 2018 amidst intense competition (Current price: c.N280,000/ton vs. FY’17 average: N312,720/ton).

Also worthy of note is the shift in regional sales breakdown with percentage of volumes to Lagos and other Western region moderating significantly to 37 percent (FY’16: 59 percent, FY’15: 56 percent).

According to Vetiva, the terrible road conditions around the Apapa environs in Lagos continue to impact business negatively.

From the analysis, supported by well contained Operating Expenses, stronger (y/y) selling price, as well as moderation in FX related production cost, FY’17 EBIT margin rose to 23 percent (FY’16: 10 percent).

With this, EBIT rose by 171 percent y/y to N47 billion, albeit 12 percent lower than had expected as price cuts in Q4’17 drove a 970bps q/q moderation.

Bottom line was further supported by an extraordinary Finance Income of N4.3 billion in Q4’17 (attributed to exchange rate gains) as well as N3.3 billion Investment Income recorded for FY’17 (FY’16: N601 million).

Overall, FY’17 PAT came in 8 percent above estimate at N39.8 billion, a significant leap from N14.4 billion recorded in FY’16. The Board proposed a final dividend of N1.25 (Total dividend: N1.75, Dividend yield: 13 percent).

Given improved FX liquidity and porous borders, Vetiva expects threat from smuggled sugar to remain pronounced in 2018. As such, it revised its Revenue forecast lower to N189 billion amidst lower y/y prices and volumes – particularly given previous year’s high base.

Though sustained stability in gas supply and benign global raw sugar prices are expected to support margins, the firm revised its FY’18 EBIT margin estimate 100bps lower to 22 percent (Previous: 23 percent; historic average of 20 percent) amidst lower selling prices.

“Also driven by our expectation of normalization in FX related gains, we estimate a N29 billion PAT for FY’18. We revise our 12 Month Target Price to N20.60 and maintain a HOLD rating on the stock. Dangote Sugar trades at a forward P/E of 9.0x vs Consumer Goods Coverage P/E of 22.0x.

“We note that the medium term outlook for Dangote Sugar remains largely positive – supported by the company’s backward integration project ‘Sugar for Nigeria’ where 1.08 million MT/PA of refined sugar is expected to be sourced from locally grown sugarcane across five sugar factories,” Vetiva said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Three Securities Drag NASD OTC Market Down by 1.01%

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Nigeria's Unlisted Securities Market Sheds 0.78%, NASD Shares up 8.31%

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.01 per cent on Tuesday, June 23, dragging the market capitalisation down by N25.91 billion to N2.544 trillion from Monday’s N2.570 trillion. Also, the NASD Security Index (NSI) decreased by 43.17 points to 4,239.34 points from 4,282.51 points.

The triplet price losers were Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which gave up N4.82 to trade at N75.00 per unit versus Monday’s closing price of N79.82 per unit. NASD Plc depreciated by N3.70 to close at N33.30 per share compared with the preceding day’s N37.00 per share, and Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc marginally lost 1 Kobo to sell at N21.41 per unit, in contrast to the previous session’s N21.42 per unit.

Tuesday’s trading data showed that the volume of securities traded by investors retreated by 35.9 per cent to 211,671 units from 330,034 units, and the value of securities fell by 82.9 per cent to N5.6 million from N32.7 million, while the number of deals doubled to 38 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.1 million units transacted for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Naira Weakens to N1,370/$1 at Official FX Window

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weakening Naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 0.11 per cent or N1.53 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 22, closing at N1,370.64/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,369.11/$1.

However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX window during the session by N4.69 to trade at N1,810.75/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,815.44/£1, and gained N5.37 on the Euro to sell at N1,561.02/€1 versus Monday’s exchange rate of N1,566.39/€1.

At the black market segment, the Naira traded flat against the Dollar yesterday at N1,395/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also closed flat at N1,380/$1.

Daily FX update from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that forex liquidity improved, but dollar volume was surpassed by strong dollar outflows on Tuesday.

Interbank FX turnover among financial institutions and market makers experienced a significant surge, reaching $125.314 million across 106 deals at the official window, 92 per cent higher than the $65.206 million the previous day, highlighting robust market activity and growing investor confidence.

Also, Nigeria’s foreign reserves continue to grow, reaching $51.142 billion, up from $51.060 billion reported the previous day, according to the CBN’s latest update.

In the cryptocurrency market, digital currencies fell amid heavy selling in technology stocks, which kept pressure on risk assets worldwide. Also, the gauge of the Dollar climbed to a seven-month high as investors moved toward safer assets.

Leading the losers was Cardano (ADA), as it slid 2.1 per cent to $0.1511. Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.3 per cent to quote at $0.0789, Ethereum (ETH) shrank 0.9 per cent to $1,673.38, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.7 per cent to $1.10, TRON (TRX) also fell by 0.7 per cent to $0.3285, Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $69.83, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $62,756.99, and Binance Coin (BNB) tumbled by 0.01 per cent to $579.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Claims of PMS Export, Re-importation Not True—Dangote Refinery

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Fifth Crude Cargo Dangote Refinery

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has refuted allegations that its premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, exported to other countries, is being re-imported into Nigeria.

It was claimed that the private crude oil refiner sells PMS to other African nations, especially Togo, at a lower price to the extent that when re-imported into the country, it is still cheaper than what Dangote Refinery sells to Nigerian marketers.

Reacting via a statement on Tuesday night, the management described the allegations as “baseless and unsubstantiated” because they are not “supported by verifiable trade data, commercial logic, or the operational realities of Dangote Refinery.”

The company noted that its core mandate is to strengthen domestic supply and remains a leading provider of petroleum products in Nigeria.

“Any practice that enables imports to compete directly with its own production clearly contradicts this objective,” it stated.

Dangote Refinery said “all sales contracts and tender agreements expressly prohibit the resale or re-importation of Dangote Refinery products into Nigeria,” emphasising that “the economics of the purported trade route are fundamentally flawed.”

The organisation stated that estimated logistics costs for transporting products from the refinery to Lomé and back into Nigeria range between $82–90 per metric ton. Such additional costs would significantly erode margins and render the transaction commercially unviable.

“Dangote Refinery does not provide export discounts sufficient to offset these costs or create arbitrage opportunities between export and domestic markets. Simply put, no rational producer would incur additional shipping, storage, financing, and handling costs only for products to re-enter and compete in its primary market,” it pointed out.

The management also highlighted that the refinery maintains stringent product traceability protocols, including detailed records of lifting points, nominated vessels, counterparties, and declared destinations. These measures ensure full visibility and accountability across the supply chain.

The statement insisted that any “claim suggesting that the refinery facilitates or tolerates re-importation is inconsistent with its contractual safeguards and established compliance standards.”

The refinery said it has consistently advocated for reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, underscoring that encouraging or enabling re-importation would undermine local refining efforts, strain foreign exchange reserves, and weaken national industrial growth, positions that are contrary to its core objectives.

Dangote Refinery reiterated that there is no strategic, economic, or operational basis for the claim that it exports products for re-importation into Nigeria, stressing that the allegation is entirely unfounded and does not withstand scrutiny when measured against market logic, contractual frameworks, and industry practices.

The statement concluded that “Dangote Refinery remains focused on its mission to enhance energy security, support local refining, and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s industrial development.”

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