Connect with us

Economy

Dangote Sugar Outlook Remains Positive Despite Market Share Dropping to 60%

Published

on

Dangote Sugar

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The 2017 financial year was good for Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc despite some challenges the company faced.

During the year, the firm had to deal with less expensive sugar smuggled into the country, which impacted on its sales and market share, which dropped to 60 percent.

But despite this, the company managed to grow its revenue by 20 percent year-on-year, while the average selling prices went up by 43 percent y/y to offset a 16 percent y/y decline in sugar volumes sold during the year.

According to Ifedayo Olowoporoku of Vetiva Capital Management Limited, the top line figure came in at a record high of N204 billion, marginally below expectation.

She said the deviation was largely driven by lower than expected volume rollout in Q4’17 (3 percent q/q rise versus 11 percent Vetiva estimate) as well as some price cut recorded within the quarter.

Vetiva said whilst management noted that government’s effort to curtail smuggling has been somewhat impactful, the company has had to take further price cuts in 2018 amidst intense competition (Current price: c.N280,000/ton vs. FY’17 average: N312,720/ton).

Also worthy of note is the shift in regional sales breakdown with percentage of volumes to Lagos and other Western region moderating significantly to 37 percent (FY’16: 59 percent, FY’15: 56 percent).

According to Vetiva, the terrible road conditions around the Apapa environs in Lagos continue to impact business negatively.

From the analysis, supported by well contained Operating Expenses, stronger (y/y) selling price, as well as moderation in FX related production cost, FY’17 EBIT margin rose to 23 percent (FY’16: 10 percent).

With this, EBIT rose by 171 percent y/y to N47 billion, albeit 12 percent lower than had expected as price cuts in Q4’17 drove a 970bps q/q moderation.

Bottom line was further supported by an extraordinary Finance Income of N4.3 billion in Q4’17 (attributed to exchange rate gains) as well as N3.3 billion Investment Income recorded for FY’17 (FY’16: N601 million).

Overall, FY’17 PAT came in 8 percent above estimate at N39.8 billion, a significant leap from N14.4 billion recorded in FY’16. The Board proposed a final dividend of N1.25 (Total dividend: N1.75, Dividend yield: 13 percent).

Given improved FX liquidity and porous borders, Vetiva expects threat from smuggled sugar to remain pronounced in 2018. As such, it revised its Revenue forecast lower to N189 billion amidst lower y/y prices and volumes – particularly given previous year’s high base.

Though sustained stability in gas supply and benign global raw sugar prices are expected to support margins, the firm revised its FY’18 EBIT margin estimate 100bps lower to 22 percent (Previous: 23 percent; historic average of 20 percent) amidst lower selling prices.

“Also driven by our expectation of normalization in FX related gains, we estimate a N29 billion PAT for FY’18. We revise our 12 Month Target Price to N20.60 and maintain a HOLD rating on the stock. Dangote Sugar trades at a forward P/E of 9.0x vs Consumer Goods Coverage P/E of 22.0x.

“We note that the medium term outlook for Dangote Sugar remains largely positive – supported by the company’s backward integration project ‘Sugar for Nigeria’ where 1.08 million MT/PA of refined sugar is expected to be sourced from locally grown sugarcane across five sugar factories,” Vetiva said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economy

CSCS Boss Shantali Says T+1 Settlement Targets Long-Term Capital Market Growth

Published

on

Shehu Yahaya Shantali

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, Mr Shehu Yahaya Shantali, says Nigeria’s shift to a T+1 settlement cycle goes beyond faster transactions and is intended to deepen long-term growth in the capital market.

Speaking at a ceremony marking the commencement of T+1 settlement in Lagos, Mr Shantali described the development as a strategic milestone that goes beyond faster transaction timelines to reinforce the market’s structural strength and future readiness.

According to him, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.

Nigeria recently became the first market in Africa to adopt the T+1 framework, reducing the settlement period for securities transactions from two days to one.

According to the boss of the securities depository firm, the shortened settlement cycle reflects years of investment in infrastructure, technology, and stakeholder collaboration aimed at transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive investment destination.

“These investments are not solely for T+1 settlement but to position Nigeria’s capital market for sustained growth and longterm competitiveness,” he said.

The migration from T+1 settlement is expected to enhance liquidity, improve capital efficiency, and reduce counterparty risk across the market.

Mr Shantali explained that the T+1 transition represents the culmination of a decades-long evolution from a manual, paper-based system to a fully automated, technology-driven post-trade environment.

He recalled that investors previously waited several months to complete transactions under the old system, but successive reforms, including transitions to T+5, T+3, and T+2, steadily improved efficiency and market integrity.

The latest upgrade, he said, builds on extensive preparations undertaken over the past three years, including system enhancements, process optimisation, and market-wide readiness assessments coordinated by the SEC and industry stakeholders.

On his part, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, said the reform signals Nigeria’s readiness to compete at the highest levels of global finance, noting that the country transitioned from T+2 to T+1 within six months.

“The era of T+1 has begun,” Mr Agama said, adding that shorter settlement cycles are critical to attracting global capital and strengthening investor confidence.

He noted that leading markets such as the United States, Canada, and India have already adopted T+1 settlement, while several European markets are preparing to migrate, making Nigeria’s transition a crucial step in maintaining international relevance.

Continue Reading

Economy

Businesses Not Feeling Full Benefits of Tinubu’s Reforms—NECA

Published

on

NECA Adewale Smatt-Oyerinde

By Adedapo Adesanya

Many private sector operators have yet to experience the anticipated gains of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility, the Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, has said.

Mr Oyerinde acknowledged that the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market reflected the government’s commitment to market-driven economic policies and improved transparency across sectors.

He said the reforms had enhanced fuel availability, reduced recurring supply disruptions and signalled policy consistency to both local and foreign investors, but noted that while there are indications of improved investor confidence, many domestic businesses, particularly Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), continue to contend with operational challenges.

The NEC chief said the depreciation of the Naira had increased production costs, affected competitiveness and heightened operational risks for many businesses.

“Many private sector operators are yet to experience the anticipated gains of the reforms as they continue to grapple with inflation, energy costs and exchange rate volatility,” he said in a recent interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) while assessing the administration’s economic performance.

Mr Oyerinde said declining consumer purchasing power and increasing production expenses had placed pressure on businesses, with some firms adjusting investment plans and operations in response to prevailing economic conditions.

On infrastructure and refining, the NECA DG said developments in housing, industrial investments and local petroleum refining had created opportunities and contributed to improved fuel supply.

He, however, identified power supply as a major challenge facing businesses, citing persistent grid instability and reliance on alternative energy sources.

“In spite of the ongoing reforms in the power sector, insufficient electricity supply remains the number one constraint to business productivity and competitiveness across the country,” he said.

Mr Oyerinde said that although some macroeconomic indicators, including foreign reserves and government revenues, had shown improvement, the gains were yet to be broadly reflected in business operations and household welfare.

“Inflation, high energy costs, multiple taxation, logistics challenges and weak consumer spending continue to constrain productivity and limit business expansion,” he said.

He said employers remained cautious about large-scale recruitment amid high borrowing costs, foreign exchange volatility and rising operating expenses.

According to him, sustainable job creation will depend on deeper structural reforms that reduce the cost of doing business and improve access to affordable finance.

He urged the government to prioritise stable power supply, lower energy costs, tax harmonisation, policy consistency and foreign exchange stability to accelerate economic recovery and strengthen investor confidence.

Continue Reading

Economy

NASD Unlisted Security Index Records 1.89% Growth

Published

on

NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded its best performance this year on Tuesday, June 2, closing higher by 1.89 per cent.

During the session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 81.62 points to 4,406.30 points from the preceding day’s 4,324.68 points, and the market capitalisation added N48.48 billion to close at N2.636 trillion compared with Monday’s N2.587 trillion.

Business Post reports that the bourse recorded five price gainers and one price loser, Geo-Fluid Plc, which fell by 1 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.88 per unit.

Conversely, Nipco Plc gained N31.57 to sell at N347.27 per share versus N315.70 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by N9.86 to N196.51 per unit from N186.68 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc improved by N3.13 to N76.10 per share from N72.97 per share, Food Concepts Plc added 27 Kobo to sell at N2.95 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N2.68 per unit, and UBN Property Plc expanded by 17 Kobo to N2.20 per share from N2.03 per share.

Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by investors depreciated by 91.4 per cent to 307,363 units from the previous session’s 3.6 million units, and the value of securities dropped 75.9 per cent to N42.8 million from the preceding session’s N177.4 million, while the number of deals went up by 13.5 per cent to 42 deals from Monday’s 37 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.3 million units exchanged for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also finished as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.

Continue Reading

Trending