Economy
West African Economies’ Risk-Reward Score Improve
By Dipo Olowookere
Increased political stability, improved commodity prices and effective public economic reforms led to an improvement of the risk-reward score in several West African economies, according to the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index from Control Risks and Oxford Economics.
Ghana leads these positive developments for West Africa, recording the strongest improvement in its risk-reward score in Africa, after Zimbabwe and Egypt. Both Nigeria and Senegal benefit from a greatly improved risk score.
Tom Griffin, Senior Partner for West Africa at Control Risks, comments that, “In 2017 many West African governments have embarked on an impressive journey to implement the right reforms for economic growth and improvement of investors’ confidence.
“Since coming to power in January 2017, Ghana’s government has continued to undertake a programme of macroeconomic reforms which have focused on reducing the deficit and external debt. In the last year, this had a particularly positive impact on issues such as credit and exchange risk.
“At the same time, Ghana has attempted to improve the business environment for investors by reducing the bureaucratic and taxation burden, as well as laying out plans for further investment activity in the oil and gas and manufacturing sectors.
“In Nigeria, the recently initiated Economic Recovery and Growth Plan has begun to tackle some of the economy’s challenges, including corruption and an infrastructure deficit.
“The plan has also sought to remove bottlenecks to improve the ease of doing business, which in turn boosts investors’ confidence.
“In the last three years, Senegal’s Emerging Senegal Plan has already led to steady growth, reaching close to 6.4% in 2017.
“The reduction in its risk score is one of the most positive changes in the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index and can be explained by structural reforms to improve the business environment, strengthened macro-economic fundamentals and a controlled debt management policy.”
Further findings of the report showed that Angola’s leadership change has not yet improved its reward score, but its risk score has gone down: Angola’s new president, João Lourenço, has acted with remarkable speed and decisiveness to consolidate his authority. Efforts to dismantle his predecessor’s networks have provided new opportunities for foreign investment in sectors previously dominated by companies linked to the former president and his family. Combined with an improved regulatory environment, investors can seek opportunities predominantly in the oil and gas, diamond, and telecommunications sectors. Reward score: 3.65 / risk score: 6.55.
South Africa – slightly increased reward score and reduced risk score as political uncertainty eases: Investor confidence has increased since Cyril Ramaphosa assumed the presidency in February 2018. The implementation of policies – intended to consolidate fiscal expenditure and tackle corruption in public institutions and state-owned enterprises – increases opportunities for doing business in South Africa. But deeply entrenched patronage networks and electoral pressure ahead of the 2019 general elections will contribute to a slow recovery of South Africa. Reward score: 4.78 / risk score: 4.74
Kenya’s reward score remains one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, but the government’s external debt burden raises concerns: Winning the election in 2017, Kenya’s leading Jubilee Party of Kenya continues its pro-business policies. However, concerns arise over the government’s external debt burden, with a new USD 2bn Eurobond issued in February even as the proceeds of a previous issue have yet to be fully accounted for. Furthermore, improving relations between the government and the opposition will be instrumental in ensuring that political tensions do not undermine economic growth, and more prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies are needed to maintain positive economic prospects. Reward score: 6.36 / risk score: 5.51
Côte d’Ivoire, with a forecasted real GDP growth rate of 7% in 2018, continues its impressive economic recovery, but great challenges remain: With reforms to the business environment and efforts to bring foreign investors back after the 2010-2011 crisis, Côte d’Ivoire has achieved amongst the highest growth rates in the world in recent years, and sectors such as construction, telecommunications, banking and retail have seen considerable growth. However, severe obstacles to a full recovery persist, including political interference and corruption, socioeconomic discontent, shortcomings in security-sector reform, and growing competition ahead of the potentially volatile 2020 presidential poll. Reward score: 6.51 / risk score: 6.24.
Senegal – growing investment and a reduced risk score presage continuous growth: Under the Emerging Senegal Plan, growth has increased steadily over the last three years, reaching close to 6.4% in 2017. Growing exports, a more diversified economy and increased interest from large international investors as a result of the promising offshore oil and gas discoveries make Senegal one of the poster children in sub-Saharan Africa. The reduction in its risk score is one of the most positive changes in the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index. Reward score: 5.76 / risk score: 4.56
Morocco – economic reforms improve the country’s resilience and make its exports more competitive, but social discontent remains a challenge: With one of the lowest risk scores on the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index and a relatively stable reward score, Morocco’s economic reforms prove to be a success. Medium-term growth will be enhanced by continued reforms to facilitate foreign investment, access to finance, quality of education and the business environment, as these represent the primary constraints to competitiveness and doing business. However, social-economic unrest over poor living conditions persists particularly in interior regions. Reward score: 5.77 / risk score: 4.10.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s pension fund assets surged by 22 per cent or N4.94 trillion to N27.45 trillion in 2025 from N22.51 trillion in 2024, according to the latest data from the National Pension Commission (PenCom).
The year-on-year growth underscores the resilience of the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), supported by steady employer and employee contributions, improved compliance and stronger investment returns across fixed income and equities.
The achievement capped a year of uninterrupted monthly expansion, reinforcing the sector’s role as one of Nigeria’s most stable pools of long-term domestic capital, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, an industry analyst said.
Pension assets rose progressively from N22.86 trillion in January 2025 to N23.26 trillion in February and N23.38 trillion in March. By mid-year, assets had climbed to N24.62 trillion, before accelerating in the second half to N25.89 trillion in August, N26.66 trillion in October, N27.05 trillion in November and ultimately N27.45 trillion in December.
On a year-on-year basis, the industry expanded significantly. Total pension assets stood at N22.51 trillion in December 2024. The increase of N4.94 trillion over 12 months translates to approximately 22 per cent growth, reflecting both fresh contributions and investment returns.
The 12-month growth and broader annual expansion are driven by three primary factors: sustained pension contributions, investment income across asset classes, and the expansion of RSA funds.
Mandatory employer and employee contributions under the CPS continued to provide steady inflows, supported by improved compliance among corporate employers, and the expansion of coverage contributed to the accumulation of assets throughout the year.
PFAs benefited from improved yields in fixed income markets and positive performance in domestic equities during parts of the year. Both realised and unrealised gains contributed to the increase in assets under management, while the bulk of the growth came from Retirement Savings Account (RSA) Funds, particularly Funds II and III, which account for the largest share of contributors.
RSA Fund II, the default fund for active contributors below 50 years, grew from N9.24 trillion in December 2024 to N11.52 trillion in December 2025, an increase of N2.28 trillion.
RSA Fund III rose by about N1.10 trillion to N7.02 trillion, while RSA Fund IV, designed for retirees, also recorded significant growth, adding roughly N630 billion during the year.
These three funds collectively represent the core of pension savings within the system and were instrumental in driving the overall asset expansion.
A review of portfolio composition shows that federal government securities remained the dominant investment class, accounting for the largest share of pension assets. Holdings in FGN bonds and treasury bills continued to provide stability and predictable returns.
Corporate debt securities and money market instruments also contributed meaningfully, offering attractive yields amid tight monetary conditions. Meanwhile, domestic equities supported asset growth during market rallies, helping diversify returns.
The balanced allocation across fixed income, equities and other instruments helped cushion portfolios against volatility while sustaining steady growth in total assets.
With assets at N27.45 trillion, the sector continues to deepen its role in long-term domestic capital formation.
By Adedapo Adesanya
There was a 0.92 per cent correction at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Tuesday, February 17, pushed by declines in the share prices of 11 Plc and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc.
11 Plc lost N28.80 during the session to trade at N263.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N291.80 per share, and CSCS Plc weakened by N4.84 to N75.25 per unit from N80.09 per unit.
Consequently, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 36.87 points to 3,964.55 points from 4,001.42 points, and the market capitalisation lost N22.06 billion to end N2.372 trillion compared with Monday’s value of N2.394 trillion.
Business Post reports that there were five price gainers yesterday, which could not lift the market.
They were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which appreciated by N5.89 to N77.24 per share from N71.35 per share, First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc grew by 8 Kobo to 90 Kobo per unit from 82 Kobo per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc increased by 8 Kobo to N3.58 per share from N3.50 per share, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc gained 7 Kobo to close at N3.48 per unit versus N3.41 per unit, and Acorn Petroleum Plc added 2 Kobo to sell at N1.33 per share compared with the previous day’s N1.31 per share.
During the session, the volume of transactions slid 91.0 per cent to 4.2 million units from 46.2 million units, the value of trades declined 88.4 per cent to N61.9 million from N532.8 million, and the number of deals shrank 2.3 per cent to 43 deals from 44 deals.
CSCS Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 31.9 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.05 billion units worth N408.6 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 71.8 million units valued at N299.1 million.
The most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) remained Resourcery Plc with 1.05 billion units sold for N408.6 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 71.8 million transacted for N299.1 million, and CSCS Plc with 31.9 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.47 per cent decline on Tuesday a day after hitting all-time highs in its key performance barometers.
This was influenced by profit-taking in Nigerian stocks, as investors cashed out from the gains recorded in the past trading sessions.
According to data, the All-Share Index (ASI) was down by 899.50 points during the session to 189,362.94 points from the preceding session’s 190,262.44 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N577 billion to N121.553 trillion from the N122.130 trillion achieved a day earlier.
Business Post reports that the sell-offs were intense yesterday as four of the sectors tracked ended in the red.
The consumer goods space improved by 2.54 per cent, but this was not enough to save Customs Street from crumbling when market activity ended at 2:30 pm.
The banking index was down by 3.69 per cent, the insurance space tumbled by 0.57 per cent, the industrial goods counter depleted by 0.50 per cent, and the energy sector dipped 0.06 per cent.
Despite the loss, the market breadth index remained positive after the bourse closed with 44 price gainers and 40 price losers, implying strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Mecure, SAHCO, and Zenith Bank gave up 10.00 per cent each to trade at N93.60, N117.00, and N80.55 apiece, while RT Briscoe depreciated by 9.95 per cent to N14.12, and Tripple G crashed by 9.77 per cent to N6.00.
Conversely, ABC Transport zoomed off by 9.94 per cent to N9.07, Zichis jumped 9.93 per cent to N13.06, Red Star Express appreciated by 9.87 per cent to N29.50, Meyer grew by 9.81 per cent to N22.95, and Japaul increased by 9.78 per cent to N3.03.
As for the activity chart, investors traded 1.2 billion stocks worth N60.2 billion in 86,607 deals compared with the 1.1 billion stocks valued at N64.0 billion transacted in 64,821 deals on Monday, representing a fall in the trading value by 5.94 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and number of deals by 9.09 per cent and 33.61 per cent apiece.
Access Holdings ended the session as the busiest equity after the sale of 103.5 million units for N2.7 billion, Zenith Bank traded 93.1 million units valued at N8.0 billion, Japaul transacted 73.8 million units for N223.6 million, First Holdco exchanged 54.3 million units worth N2.6 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology sold 45.9 million units valued at N83.3 million.
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