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Economy

Inflation to Drop in June to 10.94% from 11.61%—FSDH Analysts

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By Dipo Olowookere

Analysts at FSDH Research have predicted that the year-on-year inflation rate for the month of June 2018 would moderate further to 10.94 percent from the 11.61 percent recorded in May 2018.

According to its Inflation Watch released last Thursday, the drop in the inflation rate would reflect the base effect in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) from the previous year and slower rate of increase in prices.

Based on the calendar on its website, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is due to release the inflation rate for the month of June on Friday, July 13, 2018.

FSDH Research said in its report obtained by Business Post that it notes that consumer prices increased in June but at a lower rate than the increases recorded in May.

It noted that the prices of most of the food items monitored in June 2018 increased, leading to a 1.10 percent increase in its Food and Non-Alcoholic Index. This Index increased year-on-year by 12.43 percent, up from 245.10 points recorded in June 2017.

The leading investment firm also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between May and June 2018.

According to the Food Price Index (FPI) published last week by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the month of June 2018 shows that the Index averaged 173.7 points, 1.3 percent lower than the value for May 2018, and representing the first month-on-month decline in 2018.

The FAO explained that the rising tensions regarding international trade relations among large economies have weakened prices.

The FAO Cereal Price Index was down by 3.7 percent, but 8 percent higher than a year ago, with the drop driven largely by relatively sharp falls in maize and wheat prices, while rice prices increased.

The FAO Dairy Price Index also dropped by 0.90 percent between May and June; driven by the decrease in cheese prices, more than offsetting a rise in skim milk powder prices, while those of butter and whole milk powder remained unchanged.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was also down by 3 percent, primarily driven by a decline in the prices of palm oil, soybean and sunflower oils occasioned by slow global imports demand and large inventories.

However, the FAO Sugar Index increased by 1.2 percent from May, making it the first increase after six months of consecutive declines. The FAO Meat Index was also marginally up by 0.3 percent driven by the increase in the prices for ovine and pig meat.

FSDH Research said its analysis indicates that the value of the Naira appreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) market in June 2018. The value of the Naira appreciated by 0.15 percent to close at $/N361.08k at the NAFEX market at the end of June.

The general decline in the international prices of food coupled with the appreciation in the value of the Naira muted the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal

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First Abu Dhabi Bank

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.

The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.

The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.

The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.

The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are ‌often opaque and complex.

“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always ⁠very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.

Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

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Economy

Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.

Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.

He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.

The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.

He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.

“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.

Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.

He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.

The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.

According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.

Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.

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Economy

Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu

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​By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.

Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.

She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.

“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.

She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”

“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.

“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.

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